nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2018‒07‒16
eighteen papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Market peculiarities of natural gass: case of the Pacific Region By Larisa Shakhovskaya; Elena Petrenko; Alexandr Dzhindzholia; Victoria Timonina
  2. Soviet legacies of economic development, oligarchic rule and electoral quality in Eastern Europe’s partial democracies: the case of Ukraine By Lankina, Tomila V.; Libman, Alexander
  3. EDB Macroreview, October 2016. ECONOMIC RECOVERY TRAJECTORIES IN EURASIA By Lissovolik, Yaroslav; Kuznetsov, Aleksei; Berdigulova, Aigul
  4. Trade Linkages and Transmission of Oil Price Fluctuations in a Model Incorporating Monetary Variables By Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad; Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan; Yoshino, Naoyuki
  5. Methodical Presentation of the All-Russian Survey 'Man, Family, Society' By Vyrskaya, Marina; Makarentseva, Alla
  6. EDB Macroreview, July 2016. EAEU COUNTRIES GROWTH AFTER ADAPTATION By Lissovolik, Yaroslav; Kuznetsov, Aleksei; Berdigulova, Aigul
  7. Совокупная факторная производительность в российских регионах в 2000–2014 гг. By Alexander, Myasnikov
  8. Field Interviewer Profession By Rogozin, Dmitriy
  9. Globalisation, Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in the BRICS Region: The Importance of Asymmetries By Shahbaz, Muhammad; Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain; Alam, Shaista; Apergis, Nicholas
  10. Opening Up in the Caucasus and Central Asia; Policy Frameworks to Support Regional and Global Integration By Peter J Kunzel; Phil De Imus; Edward R Gemayel; Risto Herrala; Alexei P Kireyev; Farid Talishli
  11. Access of micro-, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) to finance in North and Central Asia By Hiroaki Ogawa
  12. Moldova Preschool and General Education By World Bank Group
  13. World Bank Support to Higher Education in Latvia By Nina Arnhold; Elias Pekkola; Vitus Püttmann; Andrée Sursock
  14. The challenge of improving efficiency of Soum Health Centers in Mongolia - What data tell us for Soum Health Centers in five provinces? By Martine Audibert; Marlène Guillon; Jacky Mathonnat
  15. World Bank Support to Higher Education in Latvia By Nina Arnhold; Jussi Kivistö; Hans Vossensteyn; Jason Weaver; Frank Ziegele
  16. Financial Inclusion, Financial Literacy, and Financial Education in Georgia By Babych, Yaroslava; Grigolia, Maya; Keshelava, Davit
  17. "External Instability in Transition: Applying Minsky's Theory of Financial Fragility to International Markets" By Liudmila Malyshava
  18. Die „Europäische Seidenstraße“ By Philipp Heimberger; Mario Holzner; Artem Kochnev

  1. By: Larisa Shakhovskaya (Volgograd State Technical University); Elena Petrenko (PRUE - Plekhanov Russian University of Economics [Moscow]); Alexandr Dzhindzholia (Volgograd State Technical University); Victoria Timonina (Volgograd State Technical University)
    Abstract: In this article are considered by authors the technological, resource and economic capacity of the Far East, the first stages of a cooperation between Russia and the largest gas importers in the Pacific Rim are described, the main projects and fields contributing to the development of a cooperation between the countries are also considered. Statistical methods of the analysis act as methodological base of a research. In modern conditions in relation to the energy sector of Russia (imposition of sanctions by the western countries) there is a reorientation of export deliveries to the EU to Asia-Pacific countries. In these conditions the Far East of Russia acts as a large oil and gas source which has advantages and opportunities to compete in the Asian market, using not only the favorable investment climate, but also the infrastructure developed for today's time. The carried-out analysis showed that Russia is the largest suppliers in the market of Asia-Pacific countries. Constantly interest in the Russian energy resources in the Asian market grows. It is connected with a geographical location of Russia, with high inventories of hydrocarbons in the Far East, safety of deliveries, low policy risks, etc.
    Keywords: consumption,import,competition,natural gass,market,Asia-Pacific countries,Russia,projects
    Date: 2018–03–30
  2. By: Lankina, Tomila V.; Libman, Alexander
    Abstract: Can economic development retard democracy, defying expectations of classic modernization theorizing? If so, under what conditions? Our paper addresses the puzzle of poor democratic performance in highly urbanized and industrialized post-communist states. We assembled an original dataset with data from Ukraine’s local and national elections and constructed district- (rayon) and region- (oblast) level indices of electoral quality. Regions and districts that score higher on developmental indices also score lower on electoral quality, including in Ukraine’s Western regions conventionally considered more democratic than the predominantly Russian-speaking Eastern regions. We explain these outcomes with reference to the peculiarities of Soviet industrial development, which facilitated the emergence of “oligarchs” in territories housing Soviet-era mega-industries. Our research contributes to comparative debates about the links between economic development and democracy.
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2019–10
  3. By: Lissovolik, Yaroslav (Eurasian Development Bank); Kuznetsov, Aleksei (Eurasian Development Bank); Berdigulova, Aigul (Eurasian Development Bank)
    Abstract: In recent years, positive expectations have not been met for the second half of the year regarding economic recovery in the EDB member countries. In both 2015 and 2014, unfavorable external factors, primarily the fall in oil prices, had a negative effect on the dynamics of economic growth in the region. Available data for Q3 2016 indicate a more favorable scenario. This is suggested by both macroeconomic data and leading indicators, as well as signals from international credit rating agencies. Trends in regional growth dynamics in the past several months point to the start of economic recovery. Indeed, judging by data for July-August 2016, there are grounds for positive GDP growth rates in the EDB countries in Q3 2016. To all appearances, one can also expect positive changes in inflation before the end of 2016. The inflation rate in Russia is expected to be lower than 6% in 2016. It will hit an all-time low in 2017-2018 and be close to the central bank’s target of 4%. We expect a fall in the aggregate inflation rate of the EDB countries from 12.8% in 2015 to 6.1% in 2016, and a further slowdown in the rise in consumer prices to 4.8% in 2017 and 4.2% in 2018. Apart from the low world prices on food and primary commodities, a significant contribution to the decline in inflationary pressure is delivered by the stabilization of the exchange rates of the EDB countries’ currencies throughout Q2-Q3 2016. This trend is partially due to a decline in the outflow of capital from EDB countries and makes it possible for the countries to replenish their foreign exchange reserves. An important factor for the economic recovery in a number of the EDB countries was the rise in exports, primarily to the Russian Federation. In some countries, the acceleration of the rise in exports may be attributable to the depreciation of the national currency. However, Kyrgyzstan showed an increase in exports to Russia despite the strengthening of the som against the ruble, which suggests that integration factors may have played a certain role. Despite the positive changes however, there are lingering risks of imbalances in a number of macroeconomic sectors, primarily in the budgetary sphere. There are still significant global risks related to: the slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy; the fall in the prices of primary commodities; the deterioration of the situation in the banking sector of European countries; as well as an increase in the Fed rate.
    Keywords: macroeconomy; macroeconomic review; forecasting; Eurasia; EAEU countries; economic growth; monetary policy
    JEL: E17 E52 E66 O11
    Date: 2016–10–21
  4. By: Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad (Asian Development Bank Institute); Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan (Asian Development Bank Institute); Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: We attempt to ascertain how sharp oil price changes can affect oil-exporting and oil-importing economies. To this end, we applied a simultaneous equation model (SEM) through a weighted two-stage least squares estimation method to different countries with business relations from Q1 2000 to Q4 2015. In the case of oil-exporting countries—Iran, the Russian Federation, United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan—our findings revealed that they totally benefit from oil price increases. In the case of oil-importing countries, the effects are more diverse. To derive a better interpretation, we divided them into four groups: European Union (EU) members (Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Poland); East Asian economies (Japan; the People’s Republic of China; the Republic of Korea; Viet Nam; Taipei,China; Singapore; and Hong Kong, China); Commonwealth of Independent States (Ukraine and Belarus); and others (United States, India, and Turkey). Our results showed that all these countries importing oil face a negative supply shock, except Turkey, which benefits directly from an oil price shock. Furthermore, the indirect effect coefficient received through trade for all these countries was positive.
    Keywords: crude oil price; trade linkage; direct and indirect effect of oil shocks
    JEL: C30 E32 Q43
    Date: 2017–09–07
  5. By: Vyrskaya, Marina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Makarentseva, Alla (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: "Person, family, society" is a large-scale representative population survey in Russia, which addresses all key issues of socio-economic and demographic development. The first two waves of the survey for comparable instruments were conducted in 2013 and in 2015. In 2015, it was decided to abandon the paper technology interview and go to paperless surveys. Two technologies were tested: a telephone survey and a quarterly survey on tablets. Based on the results of the analysis of the results of these two components of the survey, it was decided to dwell on conducting a telephone survey as the main one in 2017. Telephone technology makes it possible to implement a completely random sample of respondents. Despite a number of restrictions related to the length of the interview, remote contact with the respondent, the quality of communication and other aspects, telephone technology now seems to be the most adequate way of conducting mass population surveys.
    Date: 2018–05
  6. By: Lissovolik, Yaroslav (Eurasian Development Bank); Kuznetsov, Aleksei (Eurasian Development Bank); Berdigulova, Aigul (Eurasian Development Bank)
    Abstract: The prolonged search for the “low point” has not yet given us grounds to conclude unambiguously that it is inevitable the EAEU economies will recover soon. However, indicators for the first half of 2016 continue to indicate that the economies are gradually adapting to the shocks that have taken place in the last few years. Negative trends in the economies of EAEU countries, which strengthened amid a fall in commodity prices, have somewhat weakened. The economies started to show an improvement in macroeconomic indicators in the first half of 2016. The volume of migrant remittances from Russia began to decline sharply in Q4 2014 amid a significant fall in economic activity in the region; however, the pace of the decline started to slow down a year later. The year on-year fall in remittances from Russia to other EAEU countries in Q4 2015 exceeded 30%, but the rate of the quarter-on-quarter fall was the lowest in a year. The stabilization of the exchange rates of the national currencies of EAEU countries, and the stabilization of economic dynamics in the region, will contribute to a further slowdown in the fall in remittances. The external environment will improve through: a decline in the volatility of the world’s financial markets; a fall in capital outflows; and a rise in exports. This will contribute to the stabilization of the exchange rates of national currencies in the region. In turn, this will be a significant factor leading to a further slowdown in inflation and a decline in inflation expectations in EAEU countries. Due to inflationary pressure falling, the central banks of EAEU countries kept unchanged or reduced their base lending rates in the first half of 2016. However, we expect price and exchange rate stabilization in Q2 2016 amid low economic activity to lead to a further softening of the monetary conditions. The impressive slowdown in inflation in EAEU countries will perhaps be one of the surprises of 2016. We forecast the EAEU countries’ inflation to slow from 12.8% to 6.3%. The reduction of the key interest rates may have a positive effect on lending growth, which could provide impetus to a recovery in both investment and household consumption. As for the medium term, we forecast a recovery in GDP1 in EAEU countries from -3.1% in 2015 to -0.9% in 2016 and to a positive growth rate of 0.8% in 2017. Therefore despite 2016’s uneasy start, the first half of the year provides grounds for cautious optimism about the prospect of a recovery in economic growth and trade.
    Keywords: macroeconomy; macroeconomic policy; forecasting; Eurasia; EAEU countries; economic growth; monetary policy
    JEL: E17 E52 E66 O11
    Date: 2016–07–21
  7. By: Alexander, Myasnikov
    Abstract: The article offers a calculation of total factor productivity (TFP) in Russian regions in 2000–2014. Because of the quality issues with available data, the main conclusions in the article are based on average rather than annual TFP values for each region. It is shown that there is a highly significant positive link between the share of extracting industries in a regional economy and the TFP of the respective region. The author argues that TFP grew faster in regions with the highest shares of mineral resource extraction
    Keywords: total factor productivity, regional economics, economic growth
    JEL: O47 R11
    Date: 2016–12
  8. By: Rogozin, Dmitriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The preprint was written based on the results of a methodical project organized by the Laboratory of Social Research Methodology of the Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration in 2017. After analyzing a series of biographical interviews with interviewers of call centers, the life of the field interviewer was reconstructed, and a comprehensive picture of the professional identity of the basic specialty in the industry of opinion polls was presented.
    Date: 2018–05
  9. By: Shahbaz, Muhammad; Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain; Alam, Shaista; Apergis, Nicholas
    Abstract: This paper examines the asymmetric impact of globalisation and economic growth on energy consumption in BRICS countries, applying the NARDL bounds approach to explore the presence of asymmetric cointegration across variables. The empirical results reveals that energy consumption is positively and negatively affected by the positive and negative globalisation shocks, respectively. A positive shock in economic growth promotes energy consumption, while a negative shock reduces energy consumption.
    Keywords: Globalisation, Growth, Energy
    JEL: A1
    Date: 2018–05–02
  10. By: Peter J Kunzel; Phil De Imus; Edward R Gemayel; Risto Herrala; Alexei P Kireyev; Farid Talishli
    Abstract: The Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries are at an important juncture in their economic transition. Following significant economic progress during the 2000s, recent external shocks have revealed the underlying vulnerabilities of the current growth model. Lower commodity prices, weaker remittances, and slower growth in key trading partners reduced CCA growth, weakened external and fiscal balances, and raised public debt. the financial sector was also hit hard by large foreign exchange losses. while commodity prices have recovered somewhat since late 2014, to boost its economic potential, the region needs to find new growth drivers, diversify away from natural resources, remittances, and public spending, and generate much stronger private sector-led activity.
    Keywords: Armenia;Azerbaijan;Economic integration;Economic integration;Georgia;Kazakhstan;Kyrgyz Republic;Middle East;Tajikistan;Trade liberalization;Turkmenistan;Uzbekistan;Central Asia and the Caucasus;Economic integration; Trade liberalization; Macroeconomic Frameworks, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    Date: 2018–06–13
  11. By: Hiroaki Ogawa (Subregional Office for North and Central Asia, ESCAP)
    Abstract: Access to financing is one of the fundamental conditions for individuals and small businesses to be able to invest and become entrepreneurs. Several economies in the Asia-Pacific region, including those in the North and Central Asian subregion, however, lag in facilitating such opportunities for potential entrepreneurs. This situation hampers the private sector’s potential contribution to the development of the country, and impedes the process of inclusive income and wealth creation. It might be tempting to advise countries in North and Central Asia to take advantage of FinTech, and hopefully they should aspire to do so: new advances such as crowdfunding or blockchain technology offer great opportunities and leapfrogging is possible. However, currently most countries in the subregion lack basic infrastructure and essential conditions, such as reliable networks and free Internet, to make such a revolution possible on a massive scale. Hence, Governments should ensure the provision of such infrastructure and promote simpler, better-established technologies, such as mobile payments. Opening the mobile market to experienced foreign companies to provide mobile banking services would be another option with considerable potential. Finally, policymakers should also consider enhancing the Internet so that people really consider it as a trustworthy option to seek investment/financing opportunities. The introduction of frameworks to regulate FinTech, so that investors do not face regulatory uncertainty and feel more empowered to invest, would be welcome. As with other fast-evolving technologies, it would be advisable that they take stock of lessons learned from the experiences of other countries which are ahead of the curve.
  12. By: World Bank Group
    Keywords: Education - Access & Equity in Basic Education Education - Education Finance Education - Education For All Education - Education Sector Strategy and Lending Education - Educational Policy and Planning
    Date: 2018–02
  13. By: Nina Arnhold; Elias Pekkola; Vitus Püttmann; Andrée Sursock
    Keywords: Education - Tertiary Education Education - Education Reform and Management Education - Educational Institutions & Facilities Education - Effective Schools and Teachers Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets
    Date: 2018–04
  14. By: Martine Audibert (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Marlène Guillon (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jacky Mathonnat (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International)
    Abstract: Mongolia is facing strong constraints on the public financing of health expenditures since the economic crisis that started in 2012. In this context, achieving universal health care requires an improvement of health facilities’ efficiency. No published study has quantitatively investigated the efficiency of primary care facilities in former soviet health systems that are still over-reliant on inpatient and specialized care. We study the efficiency level and determinants of Soum Health Centers (SHCs) that provide primary care in rural areas of Mongolia. Data on activity and resources were collected in all SHCs of five rural regions between 2013 and 2015, for which it was possible to get complete and reliable data. We use a double bootstrap Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) procedure to estimate SHCs’ efficiency and its determinants. SHCs of our sample exhibit a rather low (and declining) level of efficiency since they could, in average, increase activity by 47% without an increase in inputs. Results point to the role of demand-side factors in explaining SHCs’ efficiency. We find that the size of the population in the catchment area, the share of the nomadic population and the dependency ratio are positively correlated with SHCs’ efficiency. On the contrary, the poverty level of the catchment population is negatively correlated with SHCs’ efficiency.
    Keywords: Efficiency,Data Envelopment Analysis,Double bootstrapping,Primary care,Mongolia
    Date: 2018–05–15
  15. By: Nina Arnhold; Jussi Kivistö; Hans Vossensteyn; Jason Weaver; Frank Ziegele
    Keywords: Education - Tertiary Education Education - Economics of Education Education - Education Finance Education - Education Reform and Management Education - Effective Schools and Teachers
    Date: 2018–04
  16. By: Babych, Yaroslava (Asian Development Bank Institute); Grigolia, Maya (Asian Development Bank Institute); Keshelava, Davit (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: We provide a comprehensive overview of the current state of financial inclusion and financial literacy in Georgia based on the latest literature, statistical evidence, and recent surveys. We review current government policy initiatives and strategy documents aimed at improving financial access of SMEs and households; analyze the state of the regulatory framework in Georgia; focus on the causes behind the current low levels of financial inclusion and financial literacy among the young, the poor, and the rural population; and provide policy recommendations to comprehensively address the financial inclusion problem in Georgia.
    Keywords: economic development; financial stability; financial literacy; financial inclusion; financial education
    JEL: G20 G21 G23 G28
    Date: 2018–06–14
  17. By: Liudmila Malyshava
    Abstract: This inquiry argues that the successful completion of the transition process in the post-Soviet economies is constrained by the prevailing social structure and low levels of technological progress, both of which require institutional reforms aimed at increasing growth in national income, productivity, and the degree of export competitiveness. Domestic policy implementation has not shown significant improvements on these fronts, given its short-term orientation, but instead resulted in stagnating growth rates, continuously accumulating levels of external debt, and decreasing living standards. The key to a successful completion of the transition process is therefore a combination of policies targeted at the dynamic transformation of production structures within an environment of financial stability and favorable macroeconomic conditions.
    Keywords: Transition Economies; Soviet Mode of Production; Technological Decay; International Capital Flows; External Instability; Debt Repayment
    JEL: B25 F13 F34 G15 P30
    Date: 2018–07
  18. By: Philipp Heimberger (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Artem Kochnev
    Abstract: This publication is available in German language only. For a brief English summary see further below. In dieser Studie argumentieren wir für einen „Big Push“ bei den Infrastrukturinvestitionen im größeren Europa. Wir schlagen den Bau einer „Europäischen Seidenstraße“ vor, welche die industriellen Zentren im Westen mit den bevölkerungsreichen, aber weniger entwickelten Gebieten im Osten des Kontinents verbinden und damit für mehr Wachstum und Beschäftigung sowohl kurz- als auch mittel- und langfristig sorgen soll. Im Vollausbau soll die „Europäische Seidenstraße“ auf dem Landweg rund 11.000 Kilometer auf einer Nordroute von Lissabon bis Uralsk an der russisch-kasachischen Grenze und auf einer Südroute von Mailand bis nach Wolgograd und Baku verlaufen. Kernstücke sind im Norden die Strecke von Lyon bis Moskau und im Süden von Mailand bis Konstanza. Die Südroute würde Mitteleuropa mit dem Schwarzmeerraum und den Anrainerstaaten des Kaspischen Meeres verbinden. Eine moderne Autobahn- und Hochgeschwindigkeitszugstrecke mit einer Reihe von Logistikzentren, See-, Fluss- und Flughäfen soll neue europäische Standards unter anderem in der E-Mobilität setzen. Der Vollausbau würde rund 1.000 Milliarden Euro oder rund 8% des Bruttoinlandsproduktes der auf den beiden Routen liegenden Länder ausmachen. Die Kosten relativ zur Wirtschaftsleistung der EU machen rund 7% aus. Über einen Investitionszeitraum von 10 Jahren könnte die „Europäische Seidenstraße“ entlang der Routen nach einer konservativen Schätzung zu einem Wirtschaftswachstum von durchschnittlich 3,5% und einem Anstieg der Beschäftigung von rund 2 Millionen führen. Unter günstigen Umständen und bei weiterhin anhaltenden niedrigen Zinsen kann mit einem Beschäftigungseffekt von über 7 Millionen im größeren Europa gerechnet werden. Alleine auf der Nordroute in den russischen Zentralraum könnte die verbesserte Infrastruktur der Kernstrecke bedeutende Zeitersparnisse von über 8% im Straßentransport bringen. Das wäre im Schnitt und beispielsweise auch ab Wien eine Ersparnis von rund 2,5 Stunden. Damit könnten die Länder entlang der Nordroute ihre Exporte nach Russland um über 11% steigern. Dies würde zusätzliche Exporte von über 12,5 Milliarden Euro bedeuten. Die österreichische Exportwirtschaft würde ganz besonders von diesen Infrastrukturmaßnahmen profitieren. Österreichs Russland-Exporte würden um über 14% ansteigen. Das sind rund 330 Millionen Euro. Die Baumaßnahmen bringen Österreich 34.000 Arbeitsplätze. Unter günstigen Umständen könnten bis zu 121.000 neue Jobs in Österreich geschaffen werden. English Summary A ‘European Silk Road’ The study concludes that Europe should respond to China’s New Silk Road initiative with a coherent infrastructure network and transport strategy of its own to leverage its economic potential. It should not rely on China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to achieve this, but invest itself to ensure that it suits European priorities. Nevertheless, a ‘European Silk Road’ can be seen as complementary to China’s efforts. The study finds that the development of a European Silk Road could create 2-7 million new jobs and could increase GDP on average by 3.5% in Wider Europe over a ten-year period. Eastern Europe in particular needs an upgrading of its transport infrastructure. If this is achieved, the boost to incomes and living standards would be particularly significant in that part of the continent, as a ‘big push’ in transport infrastructure investment has the potential to industrialise broad sectors of the economy.
    Keywords: Infrastruktur, Transport, Europa, China, Seidenstraße, Wachstum, Industrialisierung, Internationaler Handel, infrastructure, transport, Europe, China, Silk Road, growth, industrialisation, international trade
    JEL: H54 O18 R41 R42 L92
    Date: 2018–07

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