nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2018‒07‒09
ten papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Foreign Direct Investments: A Comparison of EAEU, DCFTA and Selected EU-CEE Countries By Peter Havlik; Gabor Hunya; Yury Zaytsev
  2. Russian Real Wages Before and After 1917: in Global Perspective By Robert Allen; Ekaterina Khaustova
  3. Review of Methodological Specifics of Consumer Price Index Seasonal Adjustment in the Bank of Russia Under the inflation targeting regime, the main goal of the Bank of Russia is to maintain price stability. In order to analyse the options that the central bank can use to implement its monetary policy aimed at bringing inflation down to sustainable low levels it is necessary to understand, considering the available short-term statistical data, the dynamics of consumer prices and individual components of the seasonally adjusted consumer price index. At the same time, the seasonal adjustment of the consumer price index requires solving a number of methodological problems, one part of which is common for all economic time series with a seasonal component and the other part is determined by the specific nature of the consumer price index as an aggregate indicator. The paper suggests approaches to solving conceptual problems related to the seasonal adjustment of the consumer price index. It also describes basic principles and methods for their implementation that can lead to a significant increase in the quality of identification and interpretation of short-term meaningful variations in consumer prices that the Bank of Russia takes into account when making its monetary policy decisions. By Arina Sapova; Aleksey Porshakov; Andrey Andreev; Evgenia Shatilo
  4. Customs Administration in Russia: What to Do? By Balandina, Galina; Ponomarev, Yuriy; Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergei G.; Tochin, Andrey
  5. Linkages Between Oil Price Shocks and Stock Returns Revisited By Firmin Doko Tchatoka; Virginie Masson; Sean Parry
  6. Do Living Labs Live in Russia? By Anna Kokareva; Evgeniy Kutsenko; Ekaterina Islankina
  7. The Effect of Emigration on Household Labor Supply: Evidence from Central Asia and South Caucasus By Paul, Saumik
  8. Financial Inclusion, Financial Literacy, and Financial Education in Azerbaijan By Ibadoghlu, Gubad
  9. The role of conflict in sex discrimination: The case of missing girls By Mavisakalyan, Astghik; Minasyan, Anna
  10. Financial Inclusion, Regulation, Financial Literacy, and Financial Education in Armenia By Nurbekyan, Armen; Hovanessian, Naneh

  1. By: Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Yury Zaytsev
    Abstract: Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been the main driver of restructuring and modernisation in Central and Eastern Europe. This paper looks into FDI stocks and flows in a dynamic and cross-country perspective, comparing the key EAEU countries (Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia) as well as DCFTA countries (Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine) with selected EU-CEE peers (Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia) in the neighbourhood. The study shows that EAEU and DCFTA countries have not been particularly attractive for foreign investors taking out round tripping inflows from offshore destinations, the accumulated FDI would be even lower. This explains a lot why restructuring in the region stalls. This pattern can change only with marked improvements in the domestic regulatory environment and investment climate.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment, FDI flows and stocks, Eastern Europe, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, FDI by key partners and sectors
    JEL: C82 F13 F14 O57 P23
    Date: 2018–06
  2. By: Robert Allen; Ekaterina Khaustova
    Abstract: The paper measures real wages in St Petersburg, Moscow, and Kursk between 1853 and 1937 and compares them to real wages in Boston, Manchester, Bombay, and Cairo. Russian living standards grew little between 1853 and 1913 and were like Egypt and India. Wages in the UK and USA were 2.5 - 5 times greater. Real wages in Russia almost doubled between 1913 and 1928. When seen in a Russian perspective, this looks like a big advance; when seen internationally, it is much less so. Real wages dropped to their pre-War level between 1928 and 1937 during the industrialization drive.
    Keywords: Russia, real wages, economic development, inequality, revolution
    JEL: D33 J30 N93 N94 P22 P23
    Date: 2017–08–16
  3. By: Arina Sapova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Aleksey Porshakov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Andrey Andreev (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Evgenia Shatilo (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Keywords: consumer price index, inflation, seasonality, seasonal adjustment, aggregate index, consumer price dynamics .
    JEL: C18 C43 E31
    Date: 2018–06
  4. By: Balandina, Galina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Ponomarev, Yuriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergei G. (Russian Foreign Trade Academy; Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Tochin, Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: Modern customs administration in Russia in comparison with the best world practices provides insufficient efficiency both for the state and for participants in foreign economic activity. The level of unreliable declaring by the business or importing goods into the country bypassing the established rules remains high. This leads to such negative consequences as unfair competition, evasion from payment of internal taxes, escalation of shadow turnover. The discretionary powers of customs authorities and their officials with existing control technologies (the multiplicity of supervisory bodies and the lack of necessary interaction between them) create conditions for administrative pressure on the business that promotes corruption.
    Date: 2018–06
  5. By: Firmin Doko Tchatoka (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Virginie Masson (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Sean Parry (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)
    Abstract: In this paper, we revisit the debate on the relationship between oil price shocks and stock market returns by replicating the quantile-on-quantile (QQ) regression model for the US stock market in Sim and Zhou (2015, Journal of Banking and Finance), and extending it to 15 countries. The classification of these countries as oil importers or oil exporters depends on their net position in crude oil trade. Our results indicate that the finding by Sim and Zhou (2015) that large negative oil price shocks can bolster stock returns when markets are performing well is only partially supported by the three largest oil importers in our sample-China, Japan and India-during the period 1988:1-2007:12. However, when extending the study to more recent data (period 1988:1-2016:12), we find that China and India experience higher returns when markets perform well and there is a large positive oil price shock. Also, large positive oil price shocks often lead to higher stock market returns when markets perform well for both oil exporting countries-Canada, Russia, Norway-and moderately oil dependent countries-such as Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. These findings highlight that the relationship between the distributions of oil price shocks and stock market returns is not stable over time in most countries studied. Furthermore, the asymmetric effect of oil price shocks observed in the US market by Sim and Zhou (2015) is less evident in most countries for both the baseline and extended periods.
    Keywords: Oil prices; stock returns; Quantile regression
    JEL: C01 C14 C31 G15
    Date: 2018–01
  6. By: Anna Kokareva (Russian relations coordinator); Evgeniy Kutsenko (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Ekaterina Islankina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Innovation infrastructure plays a crucial role in the establishment of links among knowledge producers, intermediaries, and exploiters to deal with socio-economic challenges. Traditionally, the representatives of public sector, business and academia have been considered as the key stakeholders; however today there is a shift of interest towards end users or consumers of products and services. Users, especially citizens, are able to bring new insights of their experience while taking part in testing and validation of innovative products and / or services. Hence, it is essential to decide, which forms of innovation infrastructure units enable successful involvement of users into the design and innovation process. Since mid-2000, the European Union has successfully introduced a platform for testing and experimentation based on the users’ engagement – a living laboratory. The study investigates the features of living labs, including their possible business applications, and searching for the living labs’ analogous among the existing forms of innovation infrastructure units in Russia. Business Model Canvas and comparative analysis are employed to do the research. Taken together, our results support the idea that a living lab is a very special form of innovation infrastructure unit, since it brings a product, technology, or service closer to the market, based on the insights from the end users’ engagement in testing and experimentation
    Keywords: living laboratory, innovation infrastructure, cluster, user’s innovations, Business Model Canvas
    JEL: O31 O32 R58
    Date: 2018
  7. By: Paul, Saumik (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Using a novel data set, this paper find that households with migrants experience a 26% drop in the labor force participation rate in four economies (Armenia, Azerbaijan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan) from the Central Asia and South Caucasus region. It is twice as large for households with permanent migrants as for households with seasonal migrants. The results do not alter in the presence of selection on unobservables, model misspecification, and selection bias due to the absence of more productive workers. Direct evidence on the remittances that each household received is not available. The empirical findings do, however, suggest the possibility of an increase in reservation wages.
    Keywords: emigration; labor mobility
    JEL: F22 J61
    Date: 2018–03–15
  8. By: Ibadoghlu, Gubad (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: We discuss the status of financial inclusion, education, and literacy in Azerbaijan as well as measures to foster the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, which currently have inadequate access to financial resources. The Government of Azerbaijan is facing the primary challenge of defining its role in creating broader access to financial products and services. We highlight the barriers to financial inclusion, recommend solutions to overcoming the challenges, and discuss lessons learned and a potential way forward.
    Keywords: financial inclusion; financial education; financial literacy; SME; household; Azerbaijan
    JEL: D14 D18 G21 G28 I28
    Date: 2018–05–07
  9. By: Mavisakalyan, Astghik; Minasyan, Anna
    Abstract: Recent evidence shows that highly skewed sex ratios at birth are observed not only in China and India, but also for a number of countries in the Southeast Europe and South Caucasus - a region that has seen eruptions of conflicts following the collapse of communist regimes. Yet, the role of conflict has been largely overlooked in the relevant literature on ”missing girls”. We argue that conflict and group survival concerns can exacerbate the initial son bias and lead to relatively more male births once low fertility levels and access to ultrasound technology are given. We test our hypotheses in the context of Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. First, individual-level survey analysis from Armenia shows that relatively stronger concern over national security and territorial integrity is significantly associated with son preference. Second, difference-in-difference panel analysis of community-level census data shows that once ceasefire breaches between Armenia and Azerbaijan intensified, Armenian communities closer to the conflict region exhibited relatively higher sex ratios at birth.
    Keywords: discrimination,sex ratios,conflict
    JEL: D74 J13 J16 O15
    Date: 2018
  10. By: Nurbekyan, Armen (Asian Development Bank Institute); Hovanessian, Naneh (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Financial inclusion has significantly advanced in Armenia during the last decade. Rural and urban areas, however, have benefited unevenly. The high cost of providing financial services, the lack of physical infrastructure, higher poverty rates, and the low level of financial literacy are the main barriers to financial inclusion in the rural areas. The availability of, and the high level of trust in, postal services in all villages, along with innovative technologies, should be exploited to address the inadequate physical infrastructure. Insurance services, in particular health and agriculture insurance, have a high growth potential. Mandatory health insurance along with an e-health infrastructure can boost high-quality financial inclusion. Targeted financial education policies addressing the most vulnerable groups, in particular the rural population and the unemployed, will significantly increase the quality of financial inclusion. Addressing data gaps, especially in the small and medium-sized enterprises sector, should be a priority for policy makers. Overall, a clear separation of strategies for financial inclusion from the National Strategy for Financial Education clarifying quantitative goals and policies will be beneficial.
    Keywords: financial inclusion; financial literacy; regulation; Armenia
    JEL: G21 G28 I22 O16
    Date: 2018–05–08

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