nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2018‒03‒26
eleven papers chosen by

  1. Количественное смягчение по-русски By BLINOV, Sergey
  2. The impact of exchange rate volatility on capital flows in BRICS economies By Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo; Gnagne, Pascal Xavier
  3. Assessing the trajectory of West-Russia relations in Eastern Europe: Gauging three potential scenarios By Smith, Nicholas Ross
  4. Will Ukraine Be Able to Establish Real Property Rights? By Anders Aslund
  5. The Political Economy of Collective Memories: Evidence from Russian Politics By Alessandro Belmonte; Michael Rochlitz
  6. Economic Growth, Financial Development and Income Inequality in BRICS Countries: Evidence from Panel Granger Causality Tests By YOUNSI, Moheddine; BECHTINI, Marwa
  7. Intergenerational Cultural Programs for Older People in Long-term Care Institutions: Latvian Case By Rasnača, Liga; Rezgale-Straidoma, Endija
  9. Engaging universities in social innovation research for understanding sustainability issues By Karine Oganisjana; Anna Svirina; Svetlana Surikova; Gunta Grīnberga-Zālīte; Konstantins Kozlovskis
  10. The Effect of International Trade on emerging economies: The case of India By Innocents EDOUN; Hews KGaphola
  11. Generationen, Generationenbeziehungen, Generationenpolitik. Ein mehrsprachiges Kompendium - Edition 2017 By Klimczuk, Andrzej; Lüscher, Kurt; Hoff, Andreas; Lamura, Giovanni; Renzi, Marta; de Salles Oliveira, Paulo; Sánchez, Mariano; Viry, Gil; Widmer, Eric; Neményi, Ágnes; Veress, Enikő; Bjursell, Cecilia; Boström, Ann-Kristin; Rapolienė, Gražina; Mikulionienė, Sarmitė; Oğlak, Sema; Canatan, Ayşe; Vujović, Ana; Svetelšek, Ajda; Gavranović, Nedim; Ivashchenko, Olga; Shipovskaya, Valentina; Lin, Qing; Wang, Xiying

  1. By: BLINOV, Sergey
    Abstract: In March 2018, President of Russia Vladimir Putin designated the target of increasing per capita GDP of the Russian population 1.5 times by 2024. In order to meet this target, GDP would be required to grow by 6% a year between 2018 and 2024. This is a challenging task as the last time growth rate ever reached the 6% bar was in the far off 2008. However, this can be done with the help of “quantitative easing, Russian way”. For that purpose, the commonly used “technology” of quantitative easing has to be adapted to the Russian environment. В марте 2018 года президент России Владимир Путин обозначил цель увеличить ВВП на душу населения в России в 1,5 раза к 2024 году. Для выполнения этой задачи требуется рост ВВП в 2018-2024 годах на 6% в год. Задача сложная, так как последний раз рост достигал 6% в далёком 2008 году. Но эту задачу можно решить с помощью «количественного смягчения по-русски». Для этого надо общепринятую «технологию» количественного смягчения приспособить (адаптировать) к российским условиям.
    Keywords: бюджетная политика; доходы бюджета; спрос на денежные средства; денежно-кредитная политика; количественное смягчение; методы прогнозирования; ставка процента; Central Banks; Demand for Money; Fiscal Policy; Incomes Policy; Monetary Policy; Quantitative Easing; Forecasting and Prediction Methods;
    JEL: C54 E41 E52 E58 E62 E64 E65
    Date: 2018–03–16
  2. By: Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo; Gnagne, Pascal Xavier
    Abstract: This study intends to analyse the impact of exchange rate risk on equity returns and bond yields as well as the volatility spillover between the foreign exchange, equity and bond markets in the BRICS economies. To reach this objective, a multivariate GARCH-M with BEKK specifications is applied on weekly data obtained from Thomson Reuters DataStream. The findings of the paper show that exchange rate volatility has a positive impact on ten-year bond yields in all BRICS countries except in South Africa, where the volatility of exchange rate has a negative impact. In addition, volatility to exchange rate positively influences equity returns in Brazil, India and South Africa, while the influence on Chinese and Russian equity returns is negative. These findings show that equity returns increase with the increase in exchange rate volatility in Brazil, India and South Africa, and decrease in China and Russia. Furthermore, the results on volatility spillovers between the equity returns, bond yields and foreign exchange markets show that the transmissions are from capital markets to foreign exchange market in South Africa, while the volatility to currency markets influence capital markets in Russia. The results of the study give evidence of bidirectional volatility transmissions in Brazil and China. Surprisingly, in India, volatility is transmitted from foreign exchange markets to bond markets, while changes to equity influence the foreign exchange markets.
    Keywords: Exchange rate volatility, multivariate GARCH, BRICS
    JEL: C5 F31
    Date: 2017–12–09
  3. By: Smith, Nicholas Ross
    Abstract: The Ukraine crisis and the subsequent cooling of West-Russia relations has elicited a number of popular arguments as to the trajectory of the relationship, many of which are alarming and pessimistic. After acknowledging the current impasse that has emerged between the coalition of Western actors, Ukraine and Russia since the signing of the second Minsk agreement in early 2015, this article speculates three medium- term scenarios for the West-Russia relationship in the context of Eastern Europe. An optimal scenario whereby the relationship is reset along complementary trade and energy interests, a suboptimal scenario which would see the development of a New Cold War, and a pragmatic middle option that reduces the shared neighbourhood, especially Ukraine, to a Finland-style buffer state are offered. Of the three presented scenarios, it is argued that because Russia is prepared to pay a higher cost than the West, right now, it will likely end up with a more favourable outcome (the pragmatic scenario) than the rest.
    Keywords: New Cold War; Ukraine crsis
    JEL: F51
    Date: 2017–12
  4. By: Anders Aslund
    Abstract: Over time, the necessary economic reforms have become so obvious that they have become politically possible in most places. The great problem has become the establishment of real property rights. By and large, Central and Eastern Europe have managed to accomplish that not least thanks to support from the European Union. In the former Soviet Union, however, only Georgia succeeded in that endeavor. The big question today is whether Ukraine will manage to do so, or whether it will be caught in a low-economic-growth trap. The three main elements that are needed are independent courts, autonomous prosecutors, and a law-abiding law enforcement, while no old secret police structures should be allowed to sabotage them.
    Keywords: Ukraine, economic reforms, judicial reforms, democratic reforms, corruption, property rights, election law
    JEL: E02 E26 K11 K12 K42 P14 P26
    Date: 2018–01
  5. By: Alessandro Belmonte (IMT Institute for Advanced Studies); Michael Rochlitz (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: How do political elites exploit salient historical events to reactivate collective memories and entrench their power? We study this question using data from the Russian Federation under Putin. We document a substantial recollection campaign of the traumatic transition the Russian population experienced during the 1990s, starting with the year 2003. We combine this time discontinuity in the recollection of negative collective memories with regional-level information about traumatic experiences of the 1990s. Our results show that Russians vote more for the government, and less for the liberal political opposition, in regions that suffered more during the transition period, once memories from the period are recalled on state-controlled media. We then provide additional evidence on the mechanism and nd, using a text analysis of local newspapers, that in those regions where local newspapers more intensively recall the chaotic 1990s, electoral support for the government is higher. Finally, we show that in regions in which the media is less independent from the state, this recollection campaign is more effective.
    Keywords: collective memory, recollection of the past, voting, Russia.
    JEL: D74 D83 P16 Z13
    Date: 2018
  6. By: YOUNSI, Moheddine; BECHTINI, Marwa
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between economic growth, financial development and income inequality for the BRICS countries, namely; Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, using annual panel data covering the period 1995-2015. We construct a composite financial sector development index for these countries by applying the principal component method on the main four proxies of financial development, that is, domestic credit to private sector to GDP ratio, domestic credit given by banks sector to GDP ratio, M2/GDP, and stock market capitalization to GDP ratio. Results of Pedroni panel cointegration and Kao residual panel cointegration tests confirm the valid long-run cointegration relationship between the considered variables. Fixed effects estimation results show that GDP per capita growth has a positive and significant effect on income inequality, while the coefficient of its squared term has negative and significant effect on income inequality. Similarly, financial development index appears to have a positive and statistically significant effect on income inequality, while its squared term has negative and statistically significant effect on income inequality. Our empirical findings support the financial Kuznets hypothesis of an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth, financial sector development and inequality in the BRICS countries over the study period. Our results are robust by employing POLS and GMM estimators. Results of Granger causality test shown that there is a unidirectional causality running from financial development index to income inequality, but a bidirectional causality between inflation and income inequality is found. However, there is no causal relationship between income inequality and economic growth. These findings are expected to help policymakers to reduce inequality in these countries through the improvement of taxation policies financial system.
    Keywords: Economic growth, financial development, income inequality, financial Kuznets hypothesis, BRICS countries.
    JEL: D63 G20 O11
    Date: 2018–03–13
  7. By: Rasnača, Liga; Rezgale-Straidoma, Endija
    Abstract: An ageing population is a global phenomenon that takes place in Latvia, too. The active ageing policy is a social response to social challenges caused by demographic changes. Growing generational gap is a challenge to all “greying societies” in Europe and Latvia in particular. The active ageing policy is oriented to provide possibilities for older adults to live independently. However, long-term care institutions (LTCIs) remain necessary, especially for those who live alone and have serious health problems. LTCIs are mostly orientated to provide primary needs and health care. People regardless of their age also need a social and cultural life, but for older people who live in LTCIs, it is insufficient. The study shows those who are residing in LTCIs settings are subject to everyday routine. LTCIs care provision is very much dependent on the authorities of the institution. The insufficient level of interaction between older people and the more active part of society prevents the finding of effective ways of achieving that the care in LTCIs is in accordance with the active ageing policy. The study aims to find out ways how intergenerational cultural programs of professional and amateur activities are implemented in LTCIs. The study uses a qualitative approach to explore how LTCIs intergenerational cultural programs are helping to keep our youngest and oldest generations connected.
    Keywords: Intergenerational Solidarity, Cultural Programs, Active Ageing, Long-Term Care Institution, Generational Gap
    JEL: J14 Z1
    Date: 2017
  8. By: Abuselidze, George
    Abstract: The paper considers inter-budgetary relations as one of the most complex and ambiguous spheres of functioning of state institutions of Georgia. The aim is to identify the problematic aspects of Georgia's budget policy and formulate the key directions for their elimination through the introduction of the principles of financial and budgetary federalism. Non-English. В работе рассматриваются межбюджетные отношения как одна из наиболее сложных и неоднозначных сфер функционирования государственных институтов Грузии. Целью является выявление проблемных аспектов бюджетной политики Грузии и формулирования ключевых направлений их устранения посредством внедрения принципов финансово-бюджетного федерализма.
    Keywords: Budget policy, interbudgetary relations.
    JEL: H61 H72
    Date: 2017–11–27
  9. By: Karine Oganisjana (Riga Technical University); Anna Svirina (Kazan National Research Technical University); Svetlana Surikova (LU - University of Latvia); Gunta Grīnberga-Zālīte (Latvia University of Agriculture); Konstantins Kozlovskis (Riga Technical University)
    Abstract: The paper presents the analysis of a three-stage research conducted by the authors within a social innovation project in collaboration with international master students of Riga Technical University for determining the factors, which motivate people to be involved in the solution of social problems. The authors not only analyse and use the outcomes of the students' research but also provide feasibility study of using the potential of study research at the university, for implementing serious research projects. Data collection from Africa, Asia, America and Europe was organised jointly by all the students via web-based survey for creating an original data base for the collaborative use. The qualitative and quantitative content analysis of the respondents' texts revealed three groups of factors: intrapersonal, interpersonal and external factors which motivate people to be involved in the solution of social problems. Having conducted content analysis of the same texts and comparing the outcomes of the students' and their own research, the authors concluded that study research is worth being used for research projects. Keywords: social problems, social innovation, study research, learning research by doing research, qualitative content analysis Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Oganisjana, K.; Svirina, A.; Surikova, S.; Grīnberga-Zālīte, G.; Kozlovskis. K. 2017. Engaging universities in social innovation research for understanding sustainability issues, Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues 5(1): 9-22. http://doi.
    Date: 2017–09–29
  10. By: Innocents EDOUN (Tshwane University of Technology); Hews KGaphola (TUT Business School)
    Abstract: Past and current studies indicate that, India is one of the fastest growing and most attractive economies in the world and has emerged as a desirable destination for Foreign Investment. Since 1991 India has been operating under strict policies which restricted the economy from an International trade, this drove more protectionism than open market trade. Indian government since 1991 introduced economic reform measures, to stimulate the economy. These reform measures in fiscal, reduction on the level of tariffs based on a large number of imports, exchange rate, the use of the exchange rate as the instrument for export promotion and trade policies. However, the reforms that were implemented in the Indian were not very different from the reforms undertaken by developing countries, the only alteration would be the swiftness with which they are implemented. India has one of the advantages which is the stability of its political climate. The current government and party that is in power have held the political landscape in place under control and this is providing the investor-friendly environment. India has gained influence within the global economy, this is demonstrated by India position in the international institutions like (G-8, G-20) and the free trade arrears with ASEAN, EU. This is also reflected by the by India's willingness to adopt international best practices in the production of the range of goods and services. India has attracted U$195bn in FDI over the past 5 years. ?India?s GDP for 2013, valued at US$ 1.9 trillion at current prices is the 10th largest in the world". The Indian government has a target of 8 per cent during the current Five Year Plan (2012-2017), for their economic growth, this is based on the demonstrated ability to sustain national economic growth.?This paper will elaborate more on the rationale to explore trade in India. Economic theory and empirical evidence have clearly established the links between Trade, Productivity, and Economic growth. Countries that have large internal markets have also benefited by integrating themselves into the world economy, and thus opening up their economies like South Africa and India as one of the BRICS countries. India is projected to be the fastest-growing economy in the world over the next several decades. Trading with different countries respectively has made India what it is regarded as trading hub of today after China in the BRICS Countries.
    Keywords: India, foreign Investment, economic growth, economic theory, trade
    JEL: F30 A10 F10
    Date: 2017–10
  11. By: Klimczuk, Andrzej; Lüscher, Kurt; Hoff, Andreas; Lamura, Giovanni; Renzi, Marta; de Salles Oliveira, Paulo; Sánchez, Mariano; Viry, Gil; Widmer, Eric; Neményi, Ágnes; Veress, Enikő; Bjursell, Cecilia; Boström, Ann-Kristin; Rapolienė, Gražina; Mikulionienė, Sarmitė; Oğlak, Sema; Canatan, Ayşe; Vujović, Ana; Svetelšek, Ajda; Gavranović, Nedim; Ivashchenko, Olga; Shipovskaya, Valentina; Lin, Qing; Wang, Xiying
    Abstract: The members of ‘GENERATIONES’ (INSII: International Network for the Study of Intergenerational Issues)), are very pleased to announce the publication of the definitive Edition ’17 of the compendium ‘Generations, Intergenerational Relationships, Generational Policy’. Based on an original text in German, the compendium presents and discusses the key concepts of intergenerational research in a systematic way. Its approach is characterized by the assumption that the forms of intergenerational relationships in families and kinship, institutions and communities is playing a fundamental role in the construction of individual and collective identities, and therefore in the development of societies. A cross-cultural, comparative approach accounting for linguistic diversity provides a promising avenue for theoretical, empirical and practical work in this currently crucially field for the social sciences, humanities and social policy. The Edition ’17 includes 17 languages: German, French, English, Italian, Spanish, Polish, Portuguese, Hungarian, Rumanian, Swedish, Lithuanian, Turkish, Slovenian, Bosnian-Herzegovinian, Ukrainian, Russian and Chinese. The compendium can be used as a tool for inter- and intracultural comparisons. Its layout facilitates the comparison between versions, which can be downloaded individually and in different combinations. The project has been financially supported by the cluster of excellence ‘Cultural Foundation of Integration’ of the University of Konstanz, Germany. ** Die Mitglieder des Internationalen Netzwerkes für die Analyse intergenerationeller Beziehungen GENERATIONES (INSII: Intergenerational Network for the Study of Intergenerational Issues) freuen sich, das Erscheinen der definitiven Ausgabe »Edition ‘17« ihres Kompendiums anzuzeigen. Darin werden – ausgehend von einem deutschen Basistext – Schlüsselbegriffe der Generationenforschung systematisch umschrieben und begründet. Kennzeichnend für die gewählte Perspektive ist die Annahme, die Gestaltung der Generationenbeziehungen in Familie, Verwandtschaft, Organisationen und Gemeinschaften sei grundlegend für die Entfaltung individueller und kollektiver Identitäten und dementsprechend für die Entwicklung des gesellschaftlichen Zusammenhaltes. Deshalb liegt in interkulturellen Vergleichen, die sensibel für sprachliche Unterschiede sind, ein wichtiges Potential für theoretisches und praktisches Arbeiten in diesem aktuell überaus wichtigen Feld der Sozial- und Kulturwissenschaften sowie der Sozialpolitik. Das Kompendium liegt jetzt in 17 Sprach-Versionen vor. Sie werden so präsentiert, dass sie in einfacher Weise miteinander verglichen werden können. Folgende Sprachen sind enthalten: Deutsch, Englisch, Französisch, Spanisch, Italienisch, Polnisch, Portugiesisch, Ungarisch, Rumänisch, Schwedisch, Litauisch, Türkisch, Slowenisch, Bosnisch-Herzegowinisch, Ukrainisch, Russisch, Chinesisch. – Das Kompendium kann somit als Arbeitsinstrument für internationale Vergleiche ebenso wie für die interkulturelle Verständigung innerhalb einer Gesellschaft genutzt werden. Die Versionen können individuell und in beliebigen Kombinationen heruntergeladen werden. Das Projekt wurde vom Exzellenzcluster 16 „Kulturelle Grundlagen von Integration“ der Universität Konstanz gefördert. ** Les membres du réseau international pour l’analyse des relations intergénérationnelles (INSII: International Network for the Study of Intergenerational Issues -) ont le plaisir d’annoncer la parution de la dernière version de leur abrégé multilingue : « Edition ’17 ». Celui-ci décrit et discute de manière systématique les concepts clés de la recherche sur les générations à partir d’un texte original allemand. La perspective choisie part du postulat que la forme des liens générationnels au sein de la famille, la parenté, les organisations et les communautés est fondamentale dans la construction des identités individuelles et collectives, et par conséquent des rapports sociaux. Il existe alors un important potentiel de travail théorique et pratique dans le domaine des sciences sociales, des humanités et des politiques sociales, dans une perspective comparative interculturelle, qui est en particulier sensible aux différences langagières. Dans cette dernière version, l’abrégé comprend désormais 17 langues : l’allemand, l’anglais, le français, l’espagnol, l’italien, le polonais, le portugais, l’hongrois, le roumain, le suédois, le lituanien, le turque, le slovène, le bosniaque, l’ukrainien, le russe et le chinois. Le texte est organisé de manière à aisément comparer les langues les unes avec les autres. L’abrégé peut ainsi être utilisé comme un précieux instrument de travail, tant dans une approche comparative internationale que pour une compréhension interculturelle au sein d’une société nationale donnée. L’abrégé peut être téléchargé dans une version individuelle ou dans une combinaison de son choix. Le projet a été financé par le cluster d’excellence n°16 « Kulturelle Grundlagen von Integration » [Les fondements culturels de l’intégration] de l’Université de Constance, Allemagne. ** Generationen, Generationenbeziehungen, Generationenpolitik. Ein mehrsprachiges Kompendium Generations, intergenerational relationships, generational policy: A multilingual compendium Générations, relations intergénérationelles, politiques de générations. Un abrégé multilingue Generaciones, relaciones intergeneracionales, política generacional. Un compendio multilingüe Generazioni, relazioni intergenerazionali, politica generazionale. Un compendio multilingue Pokolenia, relacje międzypokoleniowe, polityka relacji międzypokoleniowych. Wielojęzyczne kompendium Gerações, relações intergeracionais, política geracional. Um compêndio multilíngue Nemzedékek, nemzedékek közötti kapcsolatok, nemzedéki politika. Többnyelvű kompendium Generații. Politici generaționale și relații intergeneraționale. Un compendiu multilingvistic Generationer, relationer mellan generationer, generationspolicy. Ett mångspråkigt kompendium Kartos, kartų santykiai, kartų politika. Daugiakalbis kompendiumas Kuşaklar, kuşaklararası ilişkiler, kuşak politikasi. Çok dilli bir Rehber Generacije, medgeneracijski odnosi, medgeneracijska politika. Kompendij v več jezikih Generacije, međugeneracijski odnosi, generacijska politika. Višejezični kompendium Покоління (генерації), міжгенераційні відносини, політика міжгенераційних відносин. Багатомовний компендіум Поколения, межпоколенческие отношения, межпоколенческая политика. Многоязыковой компендиум 代,代际关系,代际政策. 多语言版本
    Keywords: generations, intergenerational relationships, generational policy
    JEL: J14 J18 Z18
    Date: 2017–11

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