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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2018‒03‒05
twenty-one papers chosen by Alexander Harin Modern University for the Humanities |
| By: | Kurakova, N.G. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Zinov, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Eremchenko, Olga (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Tsvetkova, Liliya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kurakov, Fedor (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The accelerating processes of globalization, the exit of research projects beyond national borders and the strengthening of international cooperation in the scientific and technical sphere form the evolution of global cooperation when developing technologies in the field of creating high-tech goods and services. Scales, dynamics, beneficiaries and possible consequences of diffusion of advanced scientific and technological knowledge from the Russian Federation are estimated in the work. The main reason for the loss of human and technological capital is the lack of interest in advanced development by companies in the industrial sector of the Russian Federation. The conclusion is substantiated that it is necessary to create in Russia an effective system for monitoring and controlling the process of securing rights to breakthrough results of scientific and technological activities, including those created for the state budget. |
| Date: | 2017–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:011803&r=cis |
| By: | Perevyshin, Yury (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergei Germanovich (Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Skrobotov, Anton (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Trunin, Pavel (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies factors of differentiation of regional price levels in Russian regions. We tested the law of one price in 76 Russian regions for 69 goods on the monthly data for the period from 2003 to 2015. Based on econometric methods of panel data analysis, it was established that in the period 2000–2015, differences in regional prices were caused by the following factors: the Balassa — Samuelson effect; the costs of regional trade; the level of monopolization of retail trade. The results obtained in the article can be used in developing and implementing economic policy aimed at poverty reduction, since differences in the purchasing power of the same income in different regions of Russia create prerequisites for unforeseen changes in inequality. It is equally important to take into account regional price differences in assessing the efficiency of transport and logistics projects, since such projects can lead to a reduction in regional price differences due to lower interregional trade costs. The results are important in the development and analysis of the consequences of monetary policy. Decisions in the sphere of monetary policy are the same for all regions, however, due to regional price differentiation, their influence on inflation in individual regions may be different. Thus, accounting for price differences between regions can improve the accuracy of forecasting the consequences of monetary policy measures. |
| Keywords: | price, regional price policy, law of one price |
| Date: | 2017–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:011801&r=cis |
| By: | Klyachko, Tatiana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergei Germanovich (Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Reforms of education in the last 15-20 years are taking place in both developed and developing countries. This is due to the fact that the role of education in modern society is rapidly changing. From the transfer of knowledge from generation to generation, education becomes a powerful mechanism for adjusting society to rapidly changing economic and social environments. Social innovations are becoming important elements of development, as social processes are now increasingly dynamic. At the same time, the education system itself must change in order to ensure an effective solution of the new problems facing education, including interethnic and interfaith relations. The report examines the main trends in the development of education in Russia and the world, and proposes measures to address the accumulated institutional, managerial, economic and pedagogical problems of the Russian education system. |
| Date: | 2017–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:011808&r=cis |
| By: | Maleva, Tatyana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Polyakova, Aleksandra (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Avraamova, Elena M. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Burdyak, Alexandra (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Grishina, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Eliseeva, Marina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Zubarevich, Natalya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Loginov, Dmitriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Lyashok, Victor (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Makarentseva, Alla (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Mkrtchyan, Nikita (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Florinskaya, Yulia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Khasanova, Ramilya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The analytical material was prepared by the team of experts of the Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting (subdivision of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration). After three years of economic decline in 2017,it claims to be the year of the beginning of the recovery. This is evidenced by positive macroeconomic dynamics and indicators of economic growth. At the same time, growth is also observed in the dynamics of a number of indicators that characterize the state of the social sphere and the socioeconomic status of the population. Is there enough reason to declare in 2017, by analogy with the economic dynamics, the year of social recovery in 2017? This issue is central to this report. Economic processes have a decisive influence on the basic social processes. The authors proceed from the understanding that without a detailed analysis of the social sphere, and, first of all, changes in the social and economic situation of the population, it is impossible to develop a long-term economic strategy and short-term economic policies that would contribute to the country's sustainable social development. |
| Date: | 2017–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:011802&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The Belarusian economy is recovering after two years of recession, helped by a more favorable external environment, better policies, and stronger domestic demand conditions. Near-term external financing pressures have eased following energy and financing agreements with Russia and a Eurobond issuance. Although key macroeconomic and financial policy frameworks have improved somewhat, much work lies ahead to support the authorities’ ambitious economic objectives through 2020 without increasing imbalances, and to reduce vulnerabilities. External and public debt are high, medium-term financing needs are significant, and corporate and bank balance sheets are weak. Key structural reforms in the real sector are proceeding at a gradual pace amidst a desire to preserve the state’s strong role in the economy and support of the existing social system. Policy recommendations. |
| Keywords: | Europe;Belarus; |
| Date: | 2017–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/383&r=cis |
| By: | Bartsits, Igor (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Borshchevskiy, Georgiy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Magomedov, Kerem (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The report is based on regular mass and expert surveys organized and conducted by the sociological group of the Institute of Public Administration and Management (subdivision of RANEPA) in the period from 2003 to 2017, and is devoted to the current state and key trends in the development of the state civil service in Russia. The report presents an analysis of internal and external factors of reforming the state civil service of Russia for the period. Report reveals trends in the development of the staff of the state civil service, its values ??and professional qualities, peculiarities of interaction between the civil service apparatus and civil society institutions. A classification of barriers and challenges that prevent the reform of the civil service is proposed, and proposals for their overcoming are formulated. |
| Date: | 2017–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:011807&r=cis |
| By: | Tanase, Ion Alexandru |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to underline the key measures that Azerbaijan took during the past 20 years in regards to sustainable development. Although the country broke up from the Soviet Union in the 1990s, there has been a particular and precise preoccupation regarding its evolution as a nation. It is important to underline the fact that, in present time, Azerbaijan is an important country in the South Caucasus, which has economic relations with other parties such as the European Union, Turkey, Russia, and others. These relationships are based, mostly, on the fact that Azerbaijan is a reach resource country that supplies many countries with oil and gas. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan; sustainable development; economy; plan; petroleum |
| JEL: | H6 L7 N7 O21 P00 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:82437&r=cis |
| By: | Schach, Michael (RWTH Aachen University); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)) |
| Abstract: | We examine the relevance of an ice-free Northeast Passage as a shipping route, especially for LNG-supplying and -consuming countries. Four aspects are considered in-depth: (1) Develop-ments in natural gas production in the Russian Arctic; (2) Trends and strategies of major Asian LNG-consuming countries; (3) Geopolitical significance of the Northeast Passage; (4) Geo-graphical and climatic particularities of the Arctic. The analysis also comprises an assessment of the competitiveness of Russian LNG exports along the Northeast Passage, a discussion of the impacts on LNG transport routes and markets, and an evaluation of the geopolitical impli-cations of this new shipping route. We find that an ice-free NEP is relevant for maritime bulk and particularly LNG shipping, and thus of great geopolitical importance and strategic interest for countries such as Russia, the US, China, Japan, and South Korea. |
| Keywords: | LNG Markets; Geopolitics; Northeast Passage; Arctic; Russia; Asia |
| JEL: | Q30 Q40 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2017_004&r=cis |
| By: | Avraamova, Elena M. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Klyachko, Tatiana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Loginov, Dmitriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Semionova, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The topic of interaction between the system of vocational education and the labor market is constantly at the center of public attention. The success of young people in the labor market is often seen as an indicator of the state of this system. Often, only the opinion of employers on the discrepancy between the level of training of specialists and modern requirements of the economy is taken into account. At the same time, among the enterprises, the share of those who carry out technical innovations is not so great. Thus, on the one hand, the demand for labor market can be imposed by obsolete enterprises, on which modern youth do not seek to work, and on the other hand, innovative industries often can not find specialists of the required qualification, since the education system does not have the human and technical resources for training of personnel of such a high level. The scientific report presents the main results of the third wave of monitoring mechanisms for the employment of graduates of educational organizations at different levels conducted by the Center for the Economics of Continuing Education of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration in 2017. |
| Date: | 2017–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:011804&r=cis |
| By: | Belousova, Veronika; Karminsky, Alexander; Kozyr, Ilya |
| Abstract: | The paper examines how the type of ownership affects the profit efficiency of Russian banks. Using bank-quarter data for selected banks in the period 2004–2015, we combine stochastic frontier anal-ysis (SFA) methodology with an intermediary approach to assess profit efficiency. Our key findings show that foreign-owned banks are the most efficient, followed by state-owned banks and private domestic banks. We also find that the profit efficiency of foreign-owned banks was higher than that of other banks during the economically stable periods of 2004Q1 to 2008Q2 and 2014Q1 to 2015Q3, and that state-owned banks were more efficient than others in the period of financial turmoil from 2008Q3 to 2013Q4 due to state support. These results are robust when we consider these banks in terms of branch network diversity, risk preferences, and specialization. |
| JEL: | G21 P34 P5 |
| Date: | 2018–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bof:bofitp:2018_005&r=cis |
| By: | Baeva, Marina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Knobel, Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Zaytsev, Yuriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Loshchenkova, Anna (Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we consider the introduction of measures to protect the domestic market (anti-dumping, countervailing and special protective measures) by countries, conduct appropriate investigations, and introduce sanitary and phyto-sanitary measures against a specific trading partner in 1995-2015. The paper analyzes the theoretical aspects and assesses the consequences of the introduction of protective measures by the member countries of integration associations such as NAFTA, MERCOSUR, ASEAN, the Pacific Alliance, the EAEC, the TTP (signatory countries) and the TAP (negotiating countries), against the partners in the merger and third countries. In addition, the work separately examines the protective measures imposed by and against Russia. |
| Date: | 2017–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:011806&r=cis |
| By: | Polterovich, Victor |
| Abstract: | It is shown that in the success of catching-up development, an important role was played by special structures - general development agencies- that coordinated the activities of ministries and offices. The functions of such agencies are considered, the main tasks that the similar Russian Federal Development Agency (FDR) should solve, are described. The creation in late 2016 of the Department of Project Activities of the Government Office of the Russian Federation can be considered as the first stage of the creation of FDR. A number of further steps are proposed for its formation. |
| Keywords: | catch-up development, economic growth, indicative planning, long-term strategy, system of projects, national innovation system, technology transfer |
| JEL: | L52 O21 O25 P11 P21 |
| Date: | 2018–01–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:84130&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Keywords: | Moldova;Europe; |
| Date: | 2017–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/399&r=cis |
| By: | Grevenbrock, Nils; Groneck, Max; Ludwig, Alexander; Zimper, Alexander |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the roles psychological biases play in empirically estimated deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities (OSPs). We model deviations between SSBs and OSPs through age-dependent inverse S-shaped probability weighting functions (PWFs), as documented in experimental prospect theory. Our estimates suggest that the implied measures for cognitive weakness, likelihood insensitivity, and those for motivational biases, relative pessimism, increase with age. We document that direct measures of cognitive weakness and motivational attitudes share these trends. Our regression analyses confirm that these factors play strong quantitative roles in the formation of subjective survival beliefs. In particular, cognitive weakness is an increasingly important contributor to the overestimation of survival chances in old age. |
| Keywords: | Subjective Survival Beliefs,Probability Weighting Function,Confirmatory Bias,Cognition,Optimism |
| JEL: | D12 D83 I10 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:200&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Keywords: | Belarus;Europe; |
| Date: | 2017–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/384&r=cis |
| By: | Andreas P. Kyriacou; Leonel Muinelo-Gallo; Oriol Roca-Sagalés |
| Abstract: | In this article we analyze the efficiency of total transport investment in a sample of 34 countries over the period 1996 to 2010. We do so by way of Data Envelopment Analysis that evaluates countries according to their ability to achieve the maximum attainable infrastructure quantity and usage for a given investment volume. We find that the Central European countries, New Zealand and Japan are the most efficient when investing in transport infrastructure while the Eastern European countries, Russia, Turkey and Mexico are the least so. We moreover consider the role played by institutional or government quality when explaining cross-country differences in investment efficiency, based on truncated panel (and bootstrapped) regressions. We confirm the positive impact of institutional quality on efficiency even after controlling for a range of potentially confounding variables. Our analysis generates important policy implications for those concerned with the efficiency of transport infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | transport infrastructures, efficiency, data envelopment analysis, panel data, government quality. |
| JEL: | E02 E60 H11 H54 |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gov:wpregi:1802&r=cis |
| By: | Belyakov, Sergei (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Klyachko, Tatiana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Polushkina, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The report presents an analysis of the current state of the system of secondary vocational education and a forecast of the need for budgetary funds for the development of this sphere until 2024. The report was prepared within the framework of the implementation of the research work of 2017 "Development of a system for assessing the effectiveness of vocational education organizations". |
| Date: | 2017–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:011805&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Following the 2014 crisis, Moldova has experienced a period of relative economic and financial stability, but still faces significant challenges. Growth has returned, inflation pressures have been contained, and fiscal performance has improved. Financial sector rehabilitation is underway, but further steps are needed to strengthen banks’ governance and balance sheets, which are critical to restore credit growth. Faster growth is needed if Moldova is to lift per capita income, which is the lowest in the region. • To accelerate growth and improve living standards while maintaining macroeconomic stability, policies should continue to focus on: (i) decisively strengthening the banking sector to facilitate deeper financial intermediation; (ii) bolstering the inflation targeting framework to help improve the transmission mechanism, while continuing to allow for exchange rate flexibility; (iii) maintaining fiscal discipline, while providing for growth-friendly priority public investment and safeguarding debt sustainability; and (iv) advancing structural reforms for sustainable and inclusive growth. |
| Date: | 2017–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/398&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | A three-year arrangement for Mongolia under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) was approved on May 24, 2017, in an amount equivalent to SDR 314.5054 million (435 percent of quota, or approximately $425 million). The arrangement forms part of a $5.5 billion multi-donor financing package that supports the authorities’ program of policy adjustment and structural reforms to stabilize the economy and lay the basis for sustainable, inclusive growth. The extended arrangement is subject to quarterly reviews though, because of delays, this is a combined first and second review. |
| Keywords: | Mongolia;Asia and Pacific; |
| Date: | 2017–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/396&r=cis |
| By: | Locatelli, C. |
| Abstract: | Les interdépendances fortes entre l’UE et ses fournisseurs extérieurs en matière de gaz naturel mettent au premier plan les problématiques de conflits et de logiques contradictoires liées à la coexistence d’arrangements institutionnels différents dans l’échange. Cet enjeu émerge clairement sur la relation entre l’UE et la Russie. Dans le même temps, la confrontation de ces deux espaces institutionnels semble avoir un « impact transformatif » sur les régulations, les systèmes institutionnels et les politiques énergétiques de la Russie et de l’UE. Elle ouvre en particulier de nouvelles structures d’opportunités pour les acteurs impliqués. L’objet de cet article est d’analyser les conflits et risques économiques et institutionnels qui résultent de la confrontation de ces deux espaces de régulation. Il est ensuite de mettre en évidence les changements induits par l’interdépendance tant du côté de la Russie que du côté de l’UE. |
| Keywords: | GAZ NATUREL;ECHANGES GAZIERS;REGULATION DU MARCHE;ORGANISATION DU MARCHE;GAZPROM;UE;RUSSIE |
| JEL: | Q31 Q41 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gbl:wpaper:2018-03&r=cis |
| By: | Schach, Michael (RWTH Aachen University); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the significance of an ice-free Northeast Passage (NEP) as a shipping route for LNG, and the impacts on alternative transport routes and -capacities. The following aspects are considered: (1) Trends in LNG production, particularly in the Russian Arctic; (2) Developments in the Asian LNG consumer market; (3) Specifics and prospects of Arctic shipping. The major LNG trade flows between producers and the Asian consumer market are modeled. Methods from Operations Research are contrasted and the Cycle-Cancelling Algorithm applied to the transportation problem, in order to achieve a cost-optimal capacity allocation. The impacts of demand variations and a chokepoint shutdown on transport routes and -capacities are considered. Concepts from competition theory are used to model the effects on LNG pricing. The key finding is that an ice-free NEP is highly relevant for shipping activities of Russian LNG producers. It constitutes a competitive advantage and notably impacts the supply competition and pricing on the Asian LNG market. A discussion of results and a conclusion critically reflect upon the research undertaken, providing an outlook and suggestions for future research. |
| Keywords: | LNG; Northeast Passage; Arctic Shipping; Logistics; Cycle-Cancelling Algorithm |
| JEL: | Q30 Q40 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2017_012&r=cis |