nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2018‒02‒19
three papers chosen by

  1. Measuring Geopolitical Risk By Dario Caldara; Matteo Iacoviello
  2. How does the public perceive alliances? The Central and Allied Powers in World War I By Jopp, Tobias A.
  3. Monetary System of Georgia in XI-XII centuries and its Effect on Economic Activity By Abuselidze, George

  1. By: Dario Caldara; Matteo Iacoviello
    Abstract: We present a monthly indicator of geopolitical risk based on a tally of newspaper articles covering geopolitical tensions, and examine its evolution and effects since 1985. The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the Gulf War, after 9/11, during the 2003 Iraq invasion, during the 2014 Russia-Ukraine crisis, and after the Paris terrorist attacks. High geopolitical risk leads to a decline in real activity, lower stock returns, and movements in capital flows away from emerging economies and towards advanced economies. When we decompose the index into threats and acts components, the adverse effects of geopolitical risk are mostly driven by the threat of adverse geopolitical events. Extending our index back to 1900, geopolitical risk rose dramatically during the World War I and World War II, was elevated in the early 1980s, and has drifted upward since the beginning of the 21st century.
    Keywords: Geopolitical Risk ; Economic Uncertainty ; War ; Terrorism ; Business Cycles
    JEL: C1 D80 E32 H56
    Date: 2018–02–02
  2. By: Jopp, Tobias A.
    Abstract: World War I was fought by numerous countries siding together as the Central Powers and, respectively, the Allied Powers. The former established around the German Empire and Austria-Hungary and grew to four allies when the Ottoman Empire in late 1914 and Bulgaria in late 1915 entered the scene; the latter centered on the alliance between England, France, and Russia and was informally extended to many more countries as they entered into the war ad-hoc by signaling common interests with the core Allied Powers. This article addresses an oft-neglected dimension of the alliance formation phenomenon, namely how alliances were perceived by the public, in contrast to military leaders' perceptions of each other. Were the Central and Allied Powers perceived as credible alliances - monolithic blocks - right at the time? We seek to determine the degree of 'alliance integration' among pairs of countries by applying cointegration analysis based on securities prices. It is assumed that prices of countries perceived as 'integrated' should show signs of co-movement. More specifically, we focus on the Amsterdam market for foreign government bonds providing us with a neutral's view on that matter. Our analysis is based on the yields for 13 belligerent countries' representative bonds traded during the war, but also before and after. Among other things, we cannot corroborate that investors recognized two monolithic blocks simply fighting the war.
    JEL: F50 G12 H49 N14 N24
    Date: 2017
  3. By: Abuselidze, George
    Abstract: This works covers peculiarities of formation of Georgian monetary system in XI-XII centuries and their effect on the international financial and economic relations. In this works we have researched the matters of formation of monetary policy of feudal age and their effect on development of foreign trade, methods of money formation important for the present world, which correct choice may provide increase of production volume and economic activity. Currency policy, geopolitical and geostrategic localization proved the country to turn into one of the economically strong economic states with high standard of life, developed system of socioeconomic relations approached to the international standards and democratic institutions.
    Keywords: History of Economy,Economic Development,Monetary Policy,Monetary System,Monetary History,Economic Activity,Europe: Pre-1913,Asia including Middle East
    JEL: E42 E52 N13 N15 O1
    Date: 2018

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