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on Confederation of Independent States |
|
Issue of 2018‒02‒12
seventeen papers chosen by |
| By: | Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Glauben, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This study analyses the impact of the Russian food and agricultural import ban on import of meat, the structural changes of trade pattern and reallocation of import flows of meat and meat products, and the price development in the import market and its impact on producers and consumers market for cattle, pork and poultry meat in the Russian Federation (RF). There is empirical evidence that the collapse of meat exports to Russia and, hence, the increase of meat prices happened even long before the import ban was introduced. The structure of Russian import market for meat has significantly changed. Brazil became the largest meat exporter in the Russian meat import market achieving market share in the total meat import of the RF almost 50% in 2015-2016. The structural changes of the Russian import market suggests that the beef and pork exporters are not price-takers on the one hand. On the other hand, they may be able to discriminate prices in the Russian import markets. |
| Keywords: | import ban,meat export,market structure,pricing,Russia,Importverbot,Fleischexport,Marktstruktur,Preisbildung,Russland |
| JEL: | Q11 Q17 L11 L13 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamodp:170&r=cis |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vladimir Gligorov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Central, East and Southeast Europe Recent Economic Developments and Forecast Table Overview 2015-2016 and outlook 2017-2019 (pp. 1) Figures GDP growth in 2016-2017 and contribution of individual demand components in percentage points, EU-CEE, Western Balkans + Turkey, CIS + Ukraine (p. 2) Albania Growth forges ahead (by Isilda Mara; p. 3) Belarus On the road to recovery (by Rumen Dobrinsky; p. 4) Bosnia and Herzegovina Broad-based pick-up in growth (by Richard Grieveson; p. 5) Bulgaria An on-going economic revival (by Rumen Dobrinsky; p. 6) Croatia Economy overshadowed by Agrokor troubles (by Hermine Vidovic; p. 7) Czech Republic Performance better than expected (by Leon Podkaminer; p. 8) Estonia Growing at potential (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 9) Hungary Strong growth performance in the first quarter (by Sándor Richter; p. 10) Kazakhstan Oil exports on the rise (by Olga Pindyuk; p. 11) Kosovo Election outcome unlikely to derail strong growth (by Richard Grieveson; p. 12) Latvia Investment cycle on the upturn (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 13) Lithuania Growth shifting into higher gear (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 14) Macedonia Reforms now (by Vladimir Gligorov; p. 15) Montenegro Fiscal Adjustment (by Vladimir Gligorov; p. 16) Poland Unexpectedly strong start into 2017 (by Leon Podkaminer; p. 17) Romania Boom continues (by Gábor Hunya; p. 18) Russian Federation Sluggish reforms lead to sluggish growth (by Peter Havlik; p. 19) Serbia Risks of backsliding (by Vladimir Gligorov; p. 20) Slovakia Sustained robust growth (by Doris Hanzl-Weiss; p. 21) Slovenia Growth boosted by investments (by Hermine Vidovic; p. 22) Turkey Growth robust amid major risks (by Richard Grieveson; p. 23) Ukraine Visa-free into the EU (by Vasily Astrov; p. 24) |
| Keywords: | economic forecasts, GDP, investment, consumer prices, unemployment, current account, household consumption, net exports, GDP growth |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2017-07-08&r=cis |
| By: | Mitrofanova, Ekaterina S.; Artamonova, Alyona V. |
| Abstract: | This study focuses on changing family formation trajectories in the Russian Federation. In European countries, pathways to family ceased being stable several decades ago, while in Russia – as in any post-socialist country - such features of life course deinstitutionalization as postponement of marriage, rising cohabitation, and reordering of events were revealed only in the 1990s and explained from the perspective of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT). Our aim is to demonstrate how family formation trajectories of men and women from different generations were transforming with the incorporation of data mining. The three-wave panel data of the Russian part of the “Generations and Gender Survey” (2004, 2007, 2011; N=5321) and the retrospective data of the survey “Person, Family, Society” (2013; N=4477) are used for achieving this aim. Sequence Analysis shows that generations born after 1970 started to exhibit de-standardized family formation trajectories. As the proportion of Russians who raise children in cohabitation or while single rises, such models of behavior become more widely accepted and practiced in contemporary Russia. Women experience more events in the family trajectory, take steps toward family formation earlier, and stay alone with children more often than men. Matrimonial and reproductive behavior has become diverse, proving that Russia fully exhibits the SDT. |
| Keywords: | family formation trajectories, matrimonial and reproductive behavior, sequence analysis |
| JEL: | J13 |
| Date: | 2016–07–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:82877&r=cis |
| By: | Svetlana Inkina |
| Abstract: | Since the early 1990s, there have been a number of incomplete efforts made by the Russian government to modernize state bureaucracy. The first wave started during the early years of Perestroika and it coincided with the collapse of the Communist system. In 1997-2001, bureaucratic reform agenda has become one of the key priorities of the Russian government again. In 2001, Federal powers launched a set of comprehensive policy measures aiming to modernize the system of bureaucratic organization. However, research to date has paid insufficient attention to the model of public bureaucracy that the Russian policy-makers were trying to build. Furthermore, little attention has been attributed to the relationship between the stages of policy formulation and policy implementation, and accordingly, to the idea of measuring and evaluating civil service reform progress. This paper uses the insights of policy implementation research to evaluate the dynamic of civil service reform (CSR) in Russia. Based on the study of government and legislative documents, I observe that despite major efforts taken by the group of reform advocates to establish clear and coherent regulations in the area of CSR, the goal of comprehensive bureaucratic modernization has not been met. Based on data acquired in expert interviews with research community specialists, State Duma representatives, former City Council members and lawmakers, I conclude that this failure has resulted from the pressure of dissatisfied interests, the lack of willingness and capacity of reform leadership to resists this pressure. |
| Keywords: | public policy, civil service reform (CSR), public administrative reform (PAR), institutions, continuity and change, policy formulation, policy implementation. |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:57/ps/2018&r=cis |
| By: | Anastasia Stepanova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Vladislav Savelyev (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Malika Shaikhutdinova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the presence of the reference price effect in mergers and acquisitions in Russia, which can act as a distortion in investor perception of the influence a deal has on a company. In this study we use the Russian market as a laboratory for the investigation of behavioral effects in a relatively inefficient market. We find a relationship between the acquirer’s announcement period return and the proximity of its pre-announcement share price to the 52-week high. The 52-week high serves as a salient anchor even though it is economically irrelevant for valuation purposes. This effect appears to be stronger for deals associated with higher levels of uncertainty. The findings confirm the presence of the anchoring bias in evaluating the effect of a merger or acquisition announcement by Russian investors. We demonstrate a significant anchoring effect even for deals with a blocking (>10%) or a controlling stake (>25%) in an emerging market with a highly concentrated ownership. |
| Keywords: | Mergers; Acquisitions; Anchoring; Reference point; Behavioral corporate finance |
| JEL: | G34 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:63/fe/2018&r=cis |
| By: | Park, Joungho (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Kang, Boogyun (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Min, Jiyoung (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the following policy implications for Korea. First, Korea needs to take a new approach toward Russia. Currently Seoul is facing numerous internal and external challenges under the rapidly-changing environment in Northeast Asia. Russia is an important partner in both political and economic terms when resolving issues on the Korean Peninsula.Therefore, an open and future-oriented thinking should be incorporated into the new Russia policy. Second, new mechanisms should be established to implement the new Russia policy. Holding summits on a regular basis will be the most effective way. At the same time, a control tower which directs and manages economic cooperation with Russia should be formed under the government. This will remarkably raise the efficiency of Korea – Russia cooperation. Third, measures must be prepared for more active participation in Far East development. The Korean government needs to understand the strategic importance of the Far East. The current stagnant economic growth can be overcome through the creation of a "northern growth space." Eventually such efforts will contribute to bringing peace on the Korean Peninsula. Most importantly, Korea needs to formulate its own original Russia strategy, keeping what is mentioned above in mind. |
| Keywords: | Russia; Economic cooperation |
| Date: | 2018–01–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2018_003&r=cis |
| By: | Bautin, Vladimir; Ukolova, Anna; Romanceva, Julia |
| Abstract: | The census, which became the second in the recent history of the country, provided information on the real state of the resource base of the agricultural sector and gave an idea of the potential opportunities for expanded reproduction in the industry. The study of these issues is relevant in the context of the State Program development of agriculture and regulation of the market of food products, raw materials and foodstuffs for 2013-2020, aimed at ensuring food security of the population, developing rural areas and increasing the profitability of agricultural producers. The aim of the study were structural changes in Russian agriculture in 2006-2016. Comparative assessment of the resource potential of Russia's agrarian sector was carried out based on the statistical analysis of the data of the RAC 2006 and the RAC 2016: the size of land and labor resources has been studied, the changes in area and structure of crops have been assessed, the dynamics of the number and structure of livestock in Russia as a whole and in the context of farm categories has been examined. This made it possible to conclude that over the past decade agrarian reforms in Russia's agriculture have led to significant structural shifts, which manifested itself in the change in the composition of rural commodity producers and in the redistribution of resources between farm categories. The analysis of the data showed a trend of concentration and centralization of agricultural production, which was expressed in the size of the total area of land per household. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, agricultural census, resource potential, farm categories, structural changes |
| JEL: | Q18 R2 |
| Date: | 2017–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:83957&r=cis |
| By: | Csaba Weiner (Institute of World Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Russian multinationals play an active role in international capital flows, although, over the past decade, two financial crises have interrupted the upward trend of their outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). This paper focuses on the specific characteristics of Russian OFDI and multinationals in general, in particular regarding their presence in the European Union – Russia’s prime export market and the main destination of Russian OFDI – and, more specifically, five EU-member Central and East European states, including the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. Besides official statistics, the research relies on company data gathered to present the activities of Russian multinationals in this region. Among the investment motives, the focus is on home-country push factors, both negative and positive. The paper also asks whether the emergence and presence of Russian multinationals could be explained by using an existing FDI framework. |
| Keywords: | outward foreign direct investment, multinational enterprises, Russia, Europe, Czech Republic,Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia |
| JEL: | D22 F23 M16 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwe:workpr:236&r=cis |
| By: | Lee, Kang-Sung. |
| Abstract: | This study was commissioned to contribute to the debate regarding the role of partnerships in promoting more efficiency in and effectiveness of employment services and ALMPs. In addition to reviewing literature at the global level, the study sought to fill knowledge gaps in developing and emerging countries, with a bias towards the BRICS. Five country studies were commissioned, covering the People’s Republic of China, Colombia, India, the Republic of Korea (South Korea) and the Russian Federation. This study on South Korea, included because of the country’s outstanding history of rapid development, provides a wealth of knowledge on various important subjects, including the use of e-services, the developmental role of the State, policy coherence at all levels, performance management, the importance of an enabling legal framework, etc., which forms an invaluable reference for other countries. |
| Keywords: | 1, 2, 3, 4 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994974192102676&r=cis |
| By: | Nikitinsky, Nikita; Shashev, Sergey; Kachurina, Polina; Bespalov, Aleksander |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we present the Expert Hub System, which was designed to help governmental structures find the best experts in different areas of expertise for better reviewing of the incoming grant proposals. In order to define the areas of expertise with topic modeling and clustering, and then to relate experts to corresponding areas of expertise and rank them according to their proficiency in certain areas of expertise, the Expert Hub approach uses the data from the Directorate of Science and Technology Programmes. Furthermore, the paper discusses the use of Big Data and Machine Learning in the Russian government project. |
| Keywords: | government project, Big Data, Machine Learning, expert evaluation, clustering |
| JEL: | O38 |
| Date: | 2016–07–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:82865&r=cis |
| By: | Melisande Cardona (European Commission - JRC); Giuditta de Prato (European Commission - JRC); Montserrat Lopez-Cobo (European Commission - JRC); Riccardo Righi (European Commission - JRC); Sofia Samoili (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | The PREDICT 2017 Factsheets present essential statistical data regarding the performance of the EU ICT sector. They provide figures and tables on general economic and industry trends and R&D performance. These Factsheets are the subject of three reports. This third report presents Factsheets on the EU in total and 12 non-EU countries: Norway, Switzerland, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, India, Japan, Korea, Russia, Taiwan and the United States. The first report on ‘Data in Current Prices’ and the second report on ‘Purchasing Power Standard’ present sets of Factsheets with data on each EU Member State and compare it to the EU average. |
| Keywords: | R&D, ICT, innovation, statistics, data collection, estimation, nowcasting, digital economy, ICT industry analysis, ICT R&D and innovation |
| JEL: | O30 O32 O52 C82 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc109582&r=cis |
| By: | Oshakbayev, Dauren; Taitukova, Regina; Petrick, Martin; Djanibekov, Nodir |
| Abstract: | With the goal of reducing the dependency on oil revenues, the Government of Kazakhstan has recently increased its budget allocations to prop up the domestic agricultural sector. Yet, many observers agree that it is less the amount of public spending that induces long-term growth than the quality of the regulatory environment. Against this background, the current paper analyses the nature and effects of state regulation in the cotton sector. In the early 2000s, it was considered to be the only example of private vertical coordination in Kazakhstani agriculture, which contrasted sharply with the state mandates imposed on producers in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. However, in 2007, regulation in Kazakhstan forced ginneries to use a complex warehouse receipt system without making sure that it was accepted by stakeholders and without appropriate institutions for implementing it in place. At the same time, it imposed financing restrictions on ginneries, which were major loan and input providers to farmers. Further measures included the establishment of a special economic zone to host a "cotton cluster". In the following years, private producers and investors turned away from cotton, and cotton area and output fell substantially. We argue that the cotton sector performance after 2007 shows how ill-designed regulation and government interference can turn a promising economic sector into decline. As an unintended side effect, the regulation promoted more diversified crop rotations based on high value crops. |
| Keywords: | cotton,Kazakhstan,public regulation,commodity finance,Baumwolle,Kasachstan,staatliche Regulierung,Rohstofffinanzierung |
| JEL: | O13 O25 P23 Q15 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamodp:172&r=cis |
| By: | Ermolova, Maria D.; Penikas, Henry I. |
| Abstract: | The aim of this work is to compare shifts in the consumer behaviour of Russian households since the mid - nineties till nowadays. The research considers the consumer behaviour of the Russians over almost the maximum possible available data RLMS period, focusing on the crisis years. Special attention is paid to analysis of the effects of crises in 1998 and 2008. To reveal effects as shifts in consumer behaviour in the aftermath of two crises panel data analysis is used to estimate QAIDS model. Due to the complete sample attrition observed in RLMS dataset since 1994, pseudo-panel approach is used. |
| Keywords: | QAIDS, RLMS, pseudo-panel, consumer behaviour, crisis |
| JEL: | D12 E21 |
| Date: | 2016–07–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:82876&r=cis |
| By: | Melisande Cardona (European Commission - JRC); Giuditta de Prato (European Commission - JRC); Montserrat Lopez-Cobo (European Commission - JRC); Riccardo Righi (European Commission - JRC); Sofia Samoili (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | The PREDICT 2017 Factsheets present essential statistical data regarding the performance of the EU ICT sector. They provide figures and tables on general economic and industry trends and R&D performance. These Factsheets are the subject of three reports. This report on ‘Data in Current Prices’ and the second report on ‘Purchasing Power Standard’ present sets of Factsheets with data on each EU Member State, in comparison to the EU average. The third report presents Factsheets on the EU and 12 non-EU countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, India, Japan, Korea, Norway, Russia, Switzerland, Taiwan and the United States. |
| Keywords: | R&D, ICT, innovation, statistics, data collection, estimation, nowcasting, digital economy, ICT industry analysis, ICT R&D and innovation |
| JEL: | O30 O32 O52 C82 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc109547&r=cis |
| By: | Melisande Cardona (European Commission - JRC); Giuditta de Prato (European Commission - JRC); Montserrat Lopez-Cobo (European Commission - JRC); Riccardo Righi (European Commission - JRC); Sofia Samoili (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | The PREDICT 2017 Factsheets present essential statistical data regarding the performance of the EU ICT sector. They provide figures and tables on general economic and industry trends and R&D performance. These Factsheets are the subject of three reports. This report on ‘Purchasing Power Standard’ and the second report on ‘Data in Current Prices’ present sets of Factsheets with data on each EU Member State, in comparison to the EU average. The third report presents Factsheets on the EU and 12 non-EU countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, India, Japan, Korea, Norway, Russia, Switzerland, Taiwan and the United States. |
| Keywords: | R&D, ICT, innovation, statistics, data collection, estimation, nowcasting, digital economy, ICT industry analysis, ICT R&D and innovation |
| JEL: | O30 O32 O52 C82 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc109565&r=cis |
| By: | Abuselidze, George |
| Abstract: | This works covers peculiarities of formation of Georgian monetary system in XI-XII centuries and their effect on the international financial and economic relations. In this works we have researched the matters of formation of monetary policy of feudal age and their effect on development of foreign trade, methods of money formation important for the present world, which correct choice may provide increase of production volume and economic activity. Currency policy, geopolitical and geostrategic localization proved the country to turn into one of the economically strong economic states with high standard of life, developed system of socioeconomic relations approached to the international standards and democratic institutions. |
| Keywords: | History of Economy; Economic Development; Monetary Policy; Monetary System; Economic Activity. |
| JEL: | E42 E52 N13 N15 O1 |
| Date: | 2018–01–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:84011&r=cis |
| By: | Christian von Hirschhausen |
| Abstract: | Nuclear power was one of the most important discoveries of the twentieth century, and it continues to play an important role in twenty-first century discussions about the future energy mix, climate change, innovation, proliferation, geopolitics, and many other crucial policy topics. This paper addresses some key issues around the emergence of nuclear power in the twentieth century and perspectives going forward in the twenty-first, including questions of economics and competitiveness, the strategic choices of the nuclear superpowers and countries that plan to either phase out or start using nuclear power, to the diffusion of nuclear technologies and the emergence of regional nuclear conflicts in the “second nuclear age”. The starting point for our hypothesis is the observation that nuclear power was originally developed for military purposes as the “daughter of science and warfare” (Lévêque 2014, 212), whereas civilian uses such as medical applications and electricity generation emerged later as by-products. Based upon this observation, we interpret the nuclear industry in terms of “economies of scope”, where strategies, costs, and benefits must be assessed in the multiproduct context of military and civilian uses of nuclear power. We propose a classification of different economic perspectives on nuclear electricity generation, and confirm the consensus of the literature that on its own, nuclear power has never been an economic method of producing electricity: not a single reactor in existence today was constructed by a private investor in a competitive, market economic framework. The economics-of-scope perspective is a useful heuristic to interpret countries’ strategic choices regarding the use of nuclear power. The paper provides a survey of strategies used by the nuclear superpowers (United States, Russia, China), by countries phasing out nuclear power because they cannot benefit from economies of scope (e.g., Italy, Spain, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland), and by potential newcomers who may expect synergies between military and civilian uses (e.g., Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, perhaps one day also Japan). We conclude that the future of nuclear power in the twenty-first century must be assessed in terms of economies of scope, and that a purely “economic” analysis of nuclear electricity is insufficient to grasp the complexity of the issue; this also raises conceptual challenges for energy modelers. The paper leaves out some important questions to be addressed in a future Part II of the assessment, such as economic and technical issues of plant decommissioning, long-term storage of waste, and the potential role of nuclear energy in climate policies. |
| Keywords: | Nuclear power, technology, competitiveness, economies of scope, geopolitics |
| JEL: | L52 L95 N7 Q48 Q54 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1700&r=cis |