nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2018‒02‒05
thirteen papers chosen by

  1. The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Economic Development in the Eurasian Region. By Ketenci, Natalya
  2. Structural Budget Balances in Oil-Rich Countries: The Cases of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia By Vugar Ahmadov; Ulvi Sarkarli; Ramiz Rahmanov
  3. Religiosity and life satisfaction in Russia: Evidence from the Russian data By Bryukhanov, Maksym; Fedotenkov, Igor
  4. Market of the Novosibirsk Oblast in the System of Regional Markets By Gluschenko, Konstantin
  6. CryptoRuble: From Russia with Love By Zura Kakushadze; Jim Kyung-Soo Liew
  7. Gamification Tools and Practicies of Russian Companies By Alena I. Morozova; Aleksandr G. Rozhkov
  8. Informal Employment Relationships and the Labor Market: Is There Segmentation in Ukraine? By Lehmann, Hartmut; Pignatti, Norberto
  9. Investigating the Dimensionality of TORR: A Replication Study By Denis A. Federiakin; Eugenia A. Aleksandrova
  10. Retreat from mandatory pension funds in countries of the Eastern and Central Europe in result of financial and fiscal crisis: Causes, effects and recommendations for fiscal rules By Bielawska, Kamila; Chłoń-Domińczak, Agnieszka; Stańko, Dariusz
  11. Is the tourism-economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top ten tourist destinations By Shahbaz, Muhammad; Ferrer, Román; Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad; Haouas, Ilham
  12. Unemployment, neets and the social role of education in Europe By Csintalan, Csaba; Bădulescu, Alina
  13. Internationale Konjunkturprognose und konjunkturelle Szenarien für die Jahre 2016 bis 2021 By Drygalla, Andrej; Holtemöller, Oliver; Lindner, Axel

  1. By: Ketenci, Natalya
    Abstract: This study presents an empirical analysis of the impact of the global financial crisis on the economic development of the Eurasian region. The region covers fifteen states of the former Soviet Union: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan. Emerging economies of estimated countries are highly attractive for foreign investors, who stimulate economic growth in the region. This paper particularly investigates the relationship between economic growth and international capital flows in the Eurasian region before and after the global financial crisis. Panel estimations using annual data for the period 1990-2014 are made applying the Generalized Method of Moments estimation technique for the dynamic panel data, developed by Hansen (1982). Empirical results reveal that the main determinant of the regions’ economic development is FDI inflow. This study finds evidence that after the global financial crisis, economic growth in the region becomes more responsive to capital flows compared to the pre-crisis period.
    Keywords: Economic growth, capital flows, generalized method of moments (GMM), Eurasia, dynamic panel data.
    JEL: F43
    Date: 2017
  2. By: Vugar Ahmadov (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Ulvi Sarkarli (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Ramiz Rahmanov (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan)
    Abstract: This study aims to analyse the discretionary fiscal policy of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia for the period 2003-2015 using the structural budget balance (SBB). The SBB considers the permanent component of oil revenue and therefore clearly defines the discretionary fiscal position and the aggregate demand effect of fiscal policy. The SBBs in Azerbaijan and Russia experience a deficit for most of the analysed period. A moderate SBB surplus is observed in Kazakhstan. The estimated SBBs also demonstrate that fiscal policies tend to be mainly pro-cyclical in Kazakhstan and Russia. Azerbaijan conducted a counter-cyclical fiscal policy for half of the investigated period. Moreover, governments placed more importance on economic stabilization in 2009 due to the global financial crisis.
    Keywords: fiscal policy, structural budget balance, oil-rich countries, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia
    JEL: E62 H60
    Date: 2018–01
  3. By: Bryukhanov, Maksym; Fedotenkov, Igor
    Abstract: Does religiosity make you happy? Many studies document positive associations between religiosity and various forms of subjective wellbeing. This is also true for general life satisfaction in normal economic conditions and in the case of economic shocks. However, both life satisfaction and religiosity may be correlated with unobserved individual and household traits or unobserved life shocks which can relate to reverse causality. These facts result in endogeneity and make ordinary least square estimates biased. In our study, we employ two methods to avoid possible endogeneity issues – we use fixed effects and instrumental variable estimations. Using Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS-HSE) data and different econometric models, we document positive associations between religiosity and life satisfaction. In particular, fixed effect and instrumental variable regressions provide evidence for a positive effect of religiosity.
    Keywords: Life satisfaction; religiosity; RLMS-HSE; endogeneity; Russia.
    JEL: D10 Z12
    Date: 2017–10–15
  4. By: Gluschenko, Konstantin
    Abstract: This paper studies integration of the Novosibirsk Oblast market for final goods with markets of all other Russian regions. It considers an aggregated market represented by a basket of basic foods (staples basket). The law of one price serves as the criterion of market integration. It is the base for constructing time series models of the regional costs of the staples basket over 2001–2015 relative to its cost in the Novosibirsk Oblast. Regional markets are divided into four groups: perfectly integrated with the Novosibirsk Oblast market, conditionally integrated with it, not integrated but tending towards integration, and neither integrated nor tending towards integration. Nonlinear time series models with asymptotically decaying trends describe the movement towards integration (price convergence).
    Keywords: market integration law of one price price convergence nonlinear trend Russian regions
    JEL: C32 L81 P22 R15
    Date: 2018–01–05
  5. By: Sonia Benghida (Woosong University)
    Abstract: Many oil-based countries failed to boost their economy development despite the long period of high oil prices going from 2002 to 2014. 12 years of inflated prices were marked by a more or less stagnated economy. While possessing large oil and shale gas resources for decades, many oil-based countries were and are still suffering from an economic collapse. This situation was long called the resource curse. The combination of oil price volatility, the pressure on agricultural and manufacturing sectors, the development of inequalities, and the disincentive effects of tax and weak institutions all result in a failure of policies and a growth collapse. After July 2014, the global market changed after the rapid and most uncommon decrease in oil prices since the 1980s. The demand for oil crumpled around the world, but mainly in the US where oil production increased to the point of making it in competition with the biggest oil producers; both Saudi Arabia and Russia. The US changed its energy mix making it more dependable on domestic gas, and shale gas production more specifically. With all these changes, many governments are catching up and the experts have shifted their attention to the role of institutions. The institutional component is now a lead to government development success. Even though shale gas is being criticized for its environmental and technical issues, it raised the attention back to the " institution-economy connection " , which is claimed to work better than the " oil-economy development ". By analyzing the case studies of some oil-based countries, this paper concludes that the identification of a natural resource as a curse or a blessing will highly depend on the quality of institution itself.
    Keywords: Role of institutions,Governance,Economic development,Resource curse,Performance quality,Oil management,OPEC countries
    Date: 2017
  6. By: Zura Kakushadze; Jim Kyung-Soo Liew
    Abstract: We discuss Russia's underlying motives for issuing its government-backed cryptocurrency, CryptoRuble, and the implications thereof and of other likely-soon-forthcoming government-issued cryptocurrencies to some stakeholders (populace, governments, economy, finance, etc.), existing decentralized cryptocurrencies (such as Bitcoin and Ethereum), as well as the future of the world monetary system (the role of the U.S. therein and a necessity for the U.S. to issue CryptoDollar), including a future algorithmic universal world currency that may also emerge. We further provide a comprehensive list of references on cryptocurrencies.
    Date: 2018–01
  7. By: Alena I. Morozova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Aleksandr G. Rozhkov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: In this paper we explore the concept of gamification and its business applications in the Russian companies. Gamification has been introduced in 2003 and since that time it has acquired a wide recognition as an efficient tool to enhance front-office and back-office business processes increasing performance and boosting engagement of the participants. Gamification refers to the use of game elements and designs in non-game environments. As a result customers and employees involved stay more focused and motivated to accomplish the chosen goal. We explore gamification practices of the Russian companies including application areas, funding and perceived efficiency of these initiatives. As the result we outline four groups of practices observed on the market.
    Keywords: gamification, marketing, Russia
    JEL: M3
    Date: 2017
  8. By: Lehmann, Hartmut (University of Bologna); Pignatti, Norberto (ISET, Tbilisi State University)
    Abstract: One of the most important factors that determine individuals' quality of life and wellbeing is their position in the labor market and the type of jobs that they hold. When workers are rationed out of the formal segment of the labor market against their will, i.e., the labor market is segmented, their quality of life is limited, and their wellbeing is reduced. When they can freely choose between a formal or informal employment relationship, i.e., the labor market is integrated, their wellbeing can reach high levels even in the presence of informal employment. We, therefore, test whether the Ukrainian labor market is segmented along the formal-informal divide, slicing the data by gender and age. The analysis that we perform consist in the analysis of short-term and medium-term transitions between five employment states, unemployment and inactivity. We also analyze wage gaps of mean hourly earnings and across the entire hourly earnings distribution, controlling for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. According to our results segmentation is present for dependent employees: for a large part of informal employees informal employment is used as a waiting stage to enter formal salaried employment and is not voluntarily chosen. As far as self-employment is concerned the evidence is mixed regarding in the Ukrainian labor market. This heterogeneity in outcomes implies that not all informal work is associated with a low quality of life and reduced wellbeing in post-transition economies.
    Keywords: informal employment, labor market segmentation, post-transition economies, Ukraine
    JEL: J31 J40 P23
    Date: 2018–01
  9. By: Denis A. Federiakin (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Eugenia A. Aleksandrova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Although Relational Reasoning (RR) is regarded as an extraordinarily important research field, relatively little is known about its measurement. The Test of Relational Reasoning (TORR) is a non-verbal instrument claimed to measure four forms of RR: analogy, anomaly, antinomy, and antithesis. At the time of writing, there is only one study systematically investigating the dimensionality and psychometric properties of TORR within the IRT methodology of the original authors, which does not give unambiguous result. The goal of this paper is to replicate the original study on an independent Russian sample of participants in the paradigm of Rasch measurement. Despite several limitations, the independent investigation of TORR dimensionality supports the results of the original study
    Keywords: Relational Reasoning, Test of Relational Reasoning, IRT-Calibration, Rasch modeling, Unidimensional Model, Multidimensional Model, Model Residuals, Test Dimensionality, Fit Statistics
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2017
  10. By: Bielawska, Kamila; Chłoń-Domińczak, Agnieszka; Stańko, Dariusz
    Abstract: The aim of this book is to assess in various dimensions the causes and effects of the reduction of mandatory pension funds in selected countries of Central-Eastern Europe and to propose changes to existing fiscal rules so that they could respond to the challenge of population ageing impact on public finances. We review the changes made in 2008-2011 in the multi-pillar pension systems CEE region: Hungary, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Bulgaria, Slovakia and Romania. All of these countries in the course of late 1990s and early 2000s introduced multi-pillar pension systems that replaced traditional PAYG ones. All countries are also EU member states and are subject to the European policy with regards to the coordination of economic government including public finance situation. However, as analysis reveals they have different social and economic contexts, relevant from the pension systems’ perspective. We make a comprehensive assessment of consequences of limiting the role of funded pillar in societies’ pension security of selected countries of Central and Eastern Europe from macro perspective (public finance) and micro perspective (pension levels of individuals), also combining the two approaches. This helped to determine the costs and benefits of current developments in the short and long term for various stakeholders. The book comprises of seven chapters. The first chapter presents the design and changes in the multi-pillar pension systems in the CEE countries in the light of their public finance situation and broader socio-economic context. Chapter 2 analyses how the pension fund markets functioned due to the pension changes introduced recently by the governments. Chapter 3 makes an assessment of the short-term effects of reduction of pension funds sectors on the public finance situation and the public pension system in each of the analysed countries. Chapter 4 analyses the impact of changes in pension system on the level of pension wealth of individuals. Chapter 5 provides an assessment of the long-term impact of changes in funded systems for the stability of public finances and pension systems. Chapter 6 presents the recommendations on how to strike the balance between fiscal tensions and the need to maintain the role of pension funds in developing sustainable and adequate pensions in the future. The last chapter summarises the findings of the project with regards to the formulated hypotheses. The authors gratefully acknowledge the financing of this project by the National Science Centre, the decision number DEC-2012/05/B/HS4/04206.
    Keywords: pension reforms, reversals, funded pensions, pension funds, CEE countries, mandatory pension funds, stability of public finances, stability of pension systems, public finance, performance evaluation
    JEL: E6 E62 G23 H53 H55 I38 J1
    Date: 2017
  11. By: Shahbaz, Muhammad; Ferrer, Román; Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad; Haouas, Ilham
    Abstract: This paper explores the time-varying causal nexus between tourism development and economic growth for the top ten tourist destinations in the world, namely China, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, the Russian Federation, Spain, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States of America, over the period 1990-2015. To that end, a bootstrap rolling window Granger causality approach based on the modified Granger causality test developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and Dolado and Lütkepohl (1996), is used. A new index for tourism activity which combines via principal component analysis the commonly used tourism indicators is also employed. The results of the bootstrap rolling window causality tests reveal that the causal relations between tourism and economic growth vary substantially over time and across countries in terms of both magnitude and direction. It is shown that the causal linkages tend to be more pronounced for a large group of countries following the global financial crisis of 2008. Additionally, Germany, France and China clearly stand out as the countries with the weakest causal nexus, while the UK, Italy and Mexico emerge as the countries that have the strongest causal links. These results have particularly important implications for policy makers.
    Keywords: Tourism, economic growth, time-varying causality, bootstrap, rolling window causality
    JEL: A1
    Date: 2017–10–15
  12. By: Csintalan, Csaba; Bădulescu, Alina
    Abstract: Education is maybe the most important engine for economic and social development and cultural empowerment, and also the most beneficial investment that a government cand make. In this paper we present a short overview on the socio-educational situation of the young people in Europe. If we refer to the social situation, the role of education becomes an undeniable one, regarding the support of the learners from a socio-economic point of view. Starting from the premise that education represents the society’s health, the education must be considered as the most important factor regarding the situation of the unemployed people from different age groups. Knowing that the higher the level of education of individuals, the more appropriate and probable are the individuals’ commitments during work. This leads to the hypothesis of a socio-economic climate, beneficial growth and further economic development. Moreover, we investigate several employment indicators, such as the unemployment rate at the European level, from the age groups of 15-24, on the period 2013-2015. We particularly investigate data in the base of some indicators, part of the training process in countries such as Poland, Estonia, Hungary and Bulgaria.
    Keywords: education, public expenditure, unemployment, NEET
    JEL: H52 I21 J21 P51
    Date: 2017–05–26
  13. By: Drygalla, Andrej; Holtemöller, Oliver; Lindner, Axel
    Abstract: In der vorliegenden Studie werden zunächst die weltweiten konjunkturellen Aussichten für das Ende des Jahres 2016 und für die Jahre 2017 bis 2021 dargestellt. Dabei wird folgender Länderkreis betrachtet: Deutschland, Österreich, Frankreich, Italien, Spanien, die Niederlande, Belgien, Griechenland, Portugal, Irland, Großbritannien, Schweden, Polen, Tschechien, Russland, USA, Kanada, Mexiko, Brasilien, Türkei, Japan, Südkorea, China, Indien und Australien. Die Weltkonjunktur dürfte im dritten Quartal 2016 deutlich angezogen haben. Im weiteren Prognoseverlauf dürfte sich die Expansion mit etwas geringerem Tempo fortsetzen. In den Schwellenländern wird die Konjunktur im Allgemeinen an Fahrt gewinnen, allerdings dürften die Stimulierungsmaßnahmen in China den dortigen Trend zu niedrigeren Wachstumsraten nur vorübergehend überlagern. Getragen wird die weltwirtschaftliche Expansion voraussichtlich weiterhin vom privaten Konsum. Die Beschäftigung in den USA, im Euroraum und in Japan dürfte weiter spürbar steigen. Allerdings fallen die Kaufkraftgewinne durch die zuvor gefallenen Ölpreise allmählich weg. Die Entscheidung der britischen Bevölkerung, aus der EU auszutreten, ist auch Zeichen für die in vielen Ländern der Welt zunehmend negative Wahrnehmung von Globalisierungsprozessen. Setzt sich diese Tendenz politisch durch, könnte es zu weiteren Desintegrationsschritten in der Weltwirtschaft kommen, die ein geringeres Wirtschaftswachstum zur Folge hätten. Die wahrscheinlichste wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in dem betrachteten Länderkreis (Basisszenario) wird anhand grundlegender volkswirtschaftlicher Kennzahlen, etwa der Zuwachsrate des Bruttoinlandsprodukts, beschrieben. Es wird auch die Entwicklung für den Fall skizziert, dass die Weltwirtschaft eine ungünstige, eine sehr ungünstige Wendung (mittelschweres und schweres Negativszenario), oder auch eine günstigeWendung nimmt (Positivszenario). Das mittelschwere Negativszenario ist so gewählt, dass die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion in der betrachteten Ländergruppe im Jahr 2016 gemäß der aus dem Modell resultierenden Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung nur mit einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von 10% noch geringer ausfällt; das schwere Negativszenario ist so gewählt, dass sich mit einerWahrscheinlichkeit von nur 1% eine noch geringere Produktion realisieren dürfte. [...]
    Date: 2017

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