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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2017‒09‒17
seven papers chosen by |
| By: | Kholodilin, Konstantin A.; Netšunajev, Aleksei |
| Abstract: | The conflict between Russia and Ukraine that started in March 2014 led to bilateral economic sanctions being imposed on each other by Russia and Western countries, including the members of the euro area. The paper investigates the impact of the sanctions on the real side of the economies of Russia and the euro area. The effects of sanctions are analysed with a structural vector autoregression. To pin down the effect we are interested in, we include in the model an index that measures the intensity of the sanctions. The sanction shock is identified and separated from the oil price shock by narrative sign restrictions. We find a very high probability that Russian GDP declined as a result of the sanctions. In contrast to that, the effects of the sanctions on the euro area are limited to real effective exchange rate adjustments |
| Keywords: | political conflict; sanctions; economic growth; Russia; euro area; structural vector autoregression |
| JEL: | C32 F51 |
| Date: | 2017–09–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2017-5&r=cis |
| By: | Iuliia Kuntsevych |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes remittances sent by Ukrainian emigrants to their country of origin. It explores the main factors in uencing the probability of obtaining remittances from abroad as well as the amount of remittances. We investigate how theplanned future usage of remittances a ects the likelihood of receiving them. The results of a survey of households in Ukraine were used to investigate the main defining factors for obtaining financial in ows from abroad, in addition to exploring the expenditures financed by remittances. Although the results of our analysis show that few factors have a significant in uence on the probability of obtaining remittances and on their size, this topic warrants further investigation. The findings are important for policymakers as the Ukrainian government might design and implement policies that increase the development potential of remittances, while eliminating their negative side effects. |
| Keywords: | remittances; remittance behavior; Ukraine,; international migration; |
| JEL: | F22 F24 O19 |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp590&r=cis |
| By: | Stukach, Victor; Anikin, Nadezhda |
| Abstract: | The article examines social capital, organizational behavior of the population, transaction costs, tools for measuring the parameters of the socio-economic dynamics of agriculture. Object: the process of creating social capital, the modernization of the industrial sphere of the region, the composition and structure of the transaction component. Used tools G. Hofstede, Institute (Legatium Institute), adapted to the agrarian sphere. Materials of concrete researches of agrarian econ-omy of the region are given. The goal is to study the influence of social capital, cul-tural parameters on the socio-economic dynamics of agriculture. The work contains recommendations to the business community on the formation of social capital, mod-ernization, institutional development. |
| Keywords: | social capital, cultural codes of economy, modernization, transaction costs, socio-economic dynamics of agriculture |
| JEL: | O11 O13 O15 O17 O3 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81342&r=cis |
| By: | Anete Pajuste (Stockholm School of Economics in Riga (SSE Riga)); Hernán Ruffo (UTDT) |
| Abstract: | Wage rigidity generates higher unemployment volatility in matching mod- els. By comparing the wage dynamics and workers’ mobility during the period 2004-11 in Spain and Latvia we provide empirical evidence to this effect. We find that wages in Spain were rigid even during periods of ris- ing and high unemployment. In contrast, Latvian wages were reduced by about 10 percent and wage cuts affected 60 percent of jobs. At the same time, the elasticity of finding and separation rates to productivity shocks was four times higher in Spain than in Latvia, and that these responses were more persistent in Spain. We use finding and separation conditions from a matching model to show that these empirical results are in line with what a model would predict. We also emphasize that separations are very responsive to shocks, more so in a rigid-wage economy, a fact that has not been highlighted in theoretical literature. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bic:rpaper:4&r=cis |
| By: | S. H. Ayhan; K. Gatskova; H. Lehmann |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence on the impacts of non-cognitive skills and attitudes towards risk on the decision to migrate from rural to urban areas. Our analysis is based on a unique four-wave panel of Ukrainian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey for the period between 2003 and 2012. Adopting the Five Factor Model of personality structure, and using it in the evaluation of non-cognitive skills, our results suggest that such personality traits as openness to new experience and the willingness to take risks increase the probability of migration. On the other hand, the non-cognitive skills conscientiousness and extraversion are found to be negatively associated with the propensity to migrate. The effects are statistically and quantitatively significant, and mainly driven by movements from rural areas into cities. Our results are robust to several sensitivity checks, including tests for reverse causality. |
| JEL: | J61 D03 D81 R23 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1106&r=cis |
| By: | Polterovich, Victor |
| Abstract: | Strategies for socio-economic development in "catching-up" countries are designed on the basis of ideologies dominated in the society and, as a rule, fail. Until recently, economic science could not offer an alternative basis for designing strategies, but over the past twenty years the situation has changed. Nevertheless, scientific results are still weakly demanded by society. In this paper, the conflict between economics and dominant ideology is explored. On the one hand, ideology restrains the development of scientific research, and on the other hand it is changing under their influence. However, these changes are very slow for a number of reasons, analyzed in the paper. Ideology is inevitably connected with the interests of economic agents. The old elite prevents the emergence of a new ideology, since new concepts reveal the mistakes of past projects. In addition, the implementation of new ideas may require institutional changes that weaken the power of existing high-ranking officials. Meanwhile, in modern societies there are no regular mechanisms providing such transformations, and the probability of rational volitional decisions, which confront the dominant ideology, is small. |
| Keywords: | catching-up development, radicalism, Washington Consensus, gradualism, institutional reform, interim institution |
| JEL: | A11 B52 D02 O25 O29 P21 |
| Date: | 2017–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81243&r=cis |
| By: | M. Velmuradova (IRSIC - Institut de Recherches en Sciences de l'Information et de Communication - AMU - Aix Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | Certain researchers call to reconsider Communication for development and social change, as a problem of "Techniques and Society” (McArthur, 1982; Jouët, 1992; Bardini, 1993; Lohento, 2003; Kiyindou, 2004, 2006, 2008; Missé, 2006). Thus, the models of social integration of innovations are used here to study how the new development support systems are accepted and appropriated by their users in developing countries, would it be in Central Asia or in Africa. There is no need to prove anymore that users’ reception and appropriation is critical to the development programs effectiveness. We synthesize these Anglo-Saxon and French models and distinguish the common determinant axes for the innovation reception: before its actual usage (acceptance models) and after it (appropriation models). It appears to be the mental construction of the sense of usage: the user mobilizes his representations "already there” (anchoring in existing representations, Moscovici, 1976, 1989; Jodelet, 1989; LeBlanc, 2007) and his imaginary (Flichy, 1995, 2001, Musso, 2007) to assess the associated usage benefits-costs, its anticipated and perceived experience. In the literature, this mental construction process appears as the formation of the Perceived Value of Use (PVU, Jouet, 1987; Mallein & Toussaint, 1992; Mallein, 1997, 2008, 2012; Soler, Geraud & Mallein, 2000; Hoffmann, Mallein & al, 2008; Hert, 1998; Toussaint, 2003; Boenisch, 2009; Assude & al, 2010; Nelson, 2012; Kim & al, 2006 and others). However, it is necessary to further explore this process. In our qualitative multi-site case study, we investigate the PVU concept in detail. As result, we model the mechanism of its formation, as well as its role for the social integration of the new development support systems by their users. We propose to test the results of our research, conducted in SME support in Central Asia, within the context of African countries. |
| Keywords: | intervention-research, multi-site organisational case study, qualitative study, SME support services, Perceived value of use, Acceptance, Cognitive appropriation, Social integration of innovations, Social utility services,Communication for development and social change |
| Date: | 2015–12–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01582273&r=cis |