nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2017‒09‒03
ten papers chosen by

  1. Deepening integration for economic diversification in North and Central Asia By Richard Pomfret, Professor at the University of Adelaide School of Economics in Australia, Tiziana Bonapace and Hiroaki Ogawa of the ESCAP Subregional Office for North and Central Asia.
  2. Russia’s Informal Economic Growth: 1960–1990 By Shida, Yoshisada
  3. Development of services sector for economic diversification and integration in North and Central Asia By Richard Pomfret from the University of Adelaide and Tiziana Bonapace from ESCAP Subregional Office for North and Central Asia.
  4. Demographic Situation and Its Perspectives in the Russian Far East: A Case of Chukotka By Kumo, Kazuhiro
  5. 08-2017 Участие зав. лабораторией прогнозирования топливно-энергетического комплекса ИНП РАН к.э.н. В.В. Семикашева на интернет-телеканале Красная линия в программе Точка зрения: “Рынок тундру не согреет”, 2 декабря 2016 г By Семикашев Валерий Валерьевич
  6. Post-Soviet Period Changes in Resource Utilization and Their Impact on Population Dynamics: Chukotka Autonomous Okrug By Litvinenko, Tamara Vitalyevna; Kumo, Kazuhiro
  7. Демографическая ситуация на Дальнем Востоке России и ее перспективы на примере Чукотки By Кумо, Кадзухиро
  8. Economic Development of Eurasian Countries from Wider Perspectives: Proceedings of the International Workshop By Choi, Syngjoo; Kim, Byung-Yeon; Lee, Jungmin; Lee, Sokbae; Bhattacharya, Prabir C.; Hsieh, Wen-jen; Wheatcroft, S.G.
  9. Regional Equalization: Do Any Incentives for Regional Development Still Exist? By Deryugin Alexander
  10. Monetary Policy: The Specific Features of Its Implementation in the Current Phase of Economic Development By Kiyutsevskaya Anna

  1. By: Richard Pomfret, Professor at the University of Adelaide School of Economics in Australia, Tiziana Bonapace and Hiroaki Ogawa of the ESCAP Subregional Office for North and Central Asia. (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific)
    Abstract: Ongoing economic stagnation in North and Central Asia since the collapse of global oil prices in mid-2014 reinforces the need to diversify the subregion’s economic growth engine beyond the resource based sectors. Economic growth performance in the subregional economies is often volatile, largely influenced by global prices for a few commodities. For example, oil and gas account for more than 90 per cent of the total export value in Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan and more than half in Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation. Similarly, more than half of Kyrgyzstan’s exports comprise gold, while copper ore and aluminium account for one third of the exports from Armenia and Tajikistan respectively. A more diversified economic base in resource-based economies also would help reduce economic volatility in countries that rely on workers’ remittances, such as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan where workers’ remittances (mainly from workers in the Russian Federation) are equivalent to about a quarter of their GDP. Despite an expected modest rebound in the near term, global oil prices are projected to remain relatively low for an extended period of time. In this regard, an effort to broaden the economic base of North and Central Asian economies in order to increase their economic resilience to external adverse shocks remains an urgent task.
  2. By: Shida, Yoshisada
    Abstract: This paper studies the historical GDP of Russia from perspective informal economy. We re-estimate nominal and real informal GDP in the period 1960–1990, using the expenditure approach and declassified archival materials of household budget surveys. The main findings are as follows. First, previously estimated values of Russia’s nominal GDP were underestimated, on average, by about 12.6% for 1960–1990, due to ignoring informal GDP. Second, after including informal GDP, we find that economic growth is 15–39 percentage points lower during this period, which corresponds to differences in the annual growth rate in the range of 0.24–0.38 percentage points.
    Keywords: informal economy, historical statistics, Russia, USSR
    JEL: N14 O17 N24 N27
    Date: 2017–03
  3. By: Richard Pomfret from the University of Adelaide and Tiziana Bonapace from ESCAP Subregional Office for North and Central Asia. (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific)
    Abstract: A key medium-term policy challenge faced by North and Central Asian economies is to gain competitiveness beyond the export of primary commodities. Among other measures, doing so requires improving the services component of the production process, which in turn would facilitate structural diversification and enhance regional economic integration. These services, also known as backbone infrastructure services or producer services, have direct consequences for adding value in production processes. More than two decades after the end of the central planning system, the role of services in the subregion remains limited. While the share of services in GDP increased in most subregional economies between 1993 and 2013, activities often involve small-scale trading rather than the business services that are required in a modern economy or by those intending to participate in global value chains. Furthermore, lack of adequate data measurements significantly reduces policy-makers’ understanding of the role services play in economic diversification, as well as their capacity for evidence-based policymaking.
  4. By: Kumo, Kazuhiro
    Date: 2017–08
  5. By: Семикашев Валерий Валерьевич (Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования)
    Date: 2017–08–23
  6. By: Litvinenko, Tamara Vitalyevna; Kumo, Kazuhiro
    Abstract: This study examines changes that have occurred in the resource utilization sector and the impact of these changes on population dynamics in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug during the post-Soviet period. This paper sheds light on the sorts of population-dynamics-related differences that have emerged in the region and how these differences relate to the use of natural resources and the ethnic composition of the population. Through this study, it was shown that changes have tended to be small in local areas where indigenous peoples who have engaged in traditional natural resource use for a large proportion of the population, while changes have been relatively large in areas where the proportion of non-indigenous people is high and the mining industry has developed.
    Keywords: Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, indigenous people, non-indigenous people, population dynamics, natural resource utilization, human settlements, intra-regional differences, non-renewable mineral resources, renewable natural resources
    Date: 2017–08
  7. By: Кумо, Кадзухиро
    Date: 2017–08
  8. By: Choi, Syngjoo; Kim, Byung-Yeon; Lee, Jungmin; Lee, Sokbae; Bhattacharya, Prabir C.; Hsieh, Wen-jen; Wheatcroft, S.G.
    Date: 2017–03
  9. By: Deryugin Alexander (RANEPA)
    Abstract: The study aims to assess how the currently applied methodology for allocating equalization transfers to Russian regions has retained incentives for their economic development. To answer this question, the term "incentive" is defined more precisely, and an indicator is suggested whereby it becomes possible not only to identify the presence or absence of regional economic development incentives, but also to perform their quantitative assessment. That indicator is the degree of compensation for the increased amount of tax and non-tax revenues by a reduction in the amount of equalization grants. It demonstrates how the amount of equalization transfers would change if the tax capacity of each region would have been different. The hypothesis that there still exists a sufficient amount of incentives, while at a first glance contradicting the popular belief about their absence, relies on the review of a broad spectrum of components and specific features of the currently applied methodology for distributing equalization transfers between RF subjects, which contribute to the preservation of such incentives. That hypothesis is confirmed by the study results. In particular, the calculated effects of changes in regions' tax capacities on the amount of equalization transfer received by them over the period 2006-2015 demonstrate that for the majority of regions, less than half of their revenue loss was compensated, which means that there exist significant incentives for the regions to develop their economies and the revenue base of their budgets. This stimulating effect varied depending on whether the initial fiscal capacity of each region prior to the allocation of equalization transfers was below or above 0.6: in the latter case, it was significantly higher. The study also analyses the supplementary factors that are associated with the negative net financial effect of increased revenue capacity on regional budget.
    Keywords: Russian economy, equalization transfers, fiscal capacity, tax capacity, incentives for regional development
    JEL: R1 R11 R12 R13
    Date: 2017
  10. By: Kiyutsevskaya Anna (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The article examines the specific features that characterize central banks' monetary policies under current conditions in the context of evolution of their goals and objectives during different phases of economic development. The author substantiates the statement that the choice of goals and objectives is determined by objective factors, and on this basis comes to the conclusion that the global financial and economic crisis, which revealed the challenges to and constraints on the choice of monetary policy directions, became the next starting point in its evolution.
    Keywords: Russian economy, monetary policy regime, monetary authorities, features of macroeconomic development, targeting, developed and developing countries
    JEL: E52 F33
    Date: 2017

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