nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2017‒05‒21
twelve papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. The Role of Universities in Economic Development of Russian Regions By Alexey A. Egorov; Oleg V. Leshukov; Alexander D. Gromov
  2. Regimes of the Russian–Swedish Border in the Novgorod Lands By Adrian Selin; Kuzma Kukushkin; Ivan Sablin; Elena Kocheryagina
  3. Republic of Kazakhstan; 2017 Article IV Consultation- Press Release; and Staff Report By International Monetary Fund
  4. How Important are Spillovers from Major Emerging Markets? By Huidrom, Raju; Kose, Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska
  5. Институты социальной инфраструктуры: социальная сфера села, территориальный кластер, рыночные барьеры, государственно-частные структуры, трансакционные издержки By Stukach,, Victor; Astashova, Ekaterina and; Zinich, Alla; Ushakova,, Elena; Starovoytova, Natali; Zinich,, Lubov; Якубенко, Марина
  6. Innovative Behavior and Prosocial Motivation of Russian Civil Servants By Tim Jaekel
  7. Individuals and Organizations as Sources of State Effectiveness, and Consequences for Policy By Michael Carlos Best; Jonas Hjort; David Szakonyi
  8. Export incentives and global value chains By Svetlana Ledyayeva
  9. Republic of Kazakhstan; Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund
  10. Republic of Moldova; Economic Development Document By International Monetary Fund.
  11. Georgia; Request for Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Cancellation of Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Georgia By International Monetary Fund.
  12. Republic of Moldova; First Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report By International Monetary Fund.

  1. By: Alexey A. Egorov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Oleg V. Leshukov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Alexander D. Gromov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the contribution of higher education institutions (HEI) in Russia to gross regional product (GRP) growth. We explore the relationship between higher education coverage and rates of economic growth based on longitudinal economic growth models which are pooled regression, fixed effects, and regression with simultaneous fixed and spatial effects. In addition to the influence of HEI on economic growth, the model specifications also allow an investigation of the relationship between the territory accessibility of higher education and GRP growth, and the significance of higher education in regions with different structures of GRP. The main policy outcome of the paper is that universities can be considered as fully-fledged economic agents which make positive contributions to GRP growth. The development of regional higher education systems would lead to a positive effect on regional economic development
    Keywords: higher education, economic growth, spatial effects, influence on GRP, regional economic development
    JEL: I21 I23 I25
    Date: 2017
  2. By: Adrian Selin (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Kuzma Kukushkin (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Ivan Sablin (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Elena Kocheryagina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The working paper analysed the infrastructure of the Russian-Swedish border from a transcultural perspective. The history of the border was split into three periods following major changes in political border regimes. The first period covered the history of the border between Sweden and the Novgorod Republic after its formal delimitation in 1323. The annexation of the Novgorod Lands to the Grand Duchy of Moscow in 1478 marked the beginning of the second period. The third period, which is discussed in detail, covered the history of border infrastructure between the transition of large part of the Novgorod Lands to Sweden in 1617 and 1700. Departing from the debate whether the border was a line or a zone and overcoming state-centred approaches, the working paper demonstrated that the existence of several parallel border regimes during different periods enabled the simultaneous existence of the border as a line and a zone pertaining to different social interactions and subject to manipulation by authorities. The consolidation of the border did not follow the Treaty of Stolbovo (1617), but owed to local demands and an accidental event of an epidemic in 1629–1630. Following the temporary consolidation of the border, the state established firm border control used for duty collection
    Keywords: Russia, Sweden, Novgorod, border, transcultural
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2017
  3. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Kazakhstan continues to withstand challenges from lower oil prices and slower growth in Russia, China, and Europe. While buffers are strong, the shocks exposed vulnerabilities, including dependence on oil and other commodities; gaps in public administration, the business environment, and competitiveness; and long-standing banking weaknesses. The authorities’ response—targeted fiscal support, exchange rate (ER) adjustment, enhanced monetary policy management, and structural reforms focusing on the business climate and the public sector—has stabilized conditions. Growth in 2016 was positive, and a pickup is expected in 2017. Medium-term prospects are subdued, due to continued lower oil prices and conditions in key trading partners. Growth is projected to reach 2.5 percent in 2017 and non-oil growth should reach 4 percent by 2021. This will reflect the implementation of announced reforms, unlocking of bank lending, and a further increase in oil production. Uncertainty is high, given exposure to commodity price developments.
  4. By: Huidrom, Raju; Kose, Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska
    Abstract: The seven largest emerging market economiess - China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Turkey - constituted more than one-quarter of global output and more than half of global output growth during 2010-15. These emerging markets, which we call EM7, are also closely integrated with other countries, especially with other emerging and frontier markets. Given their size and integration, growth in EM7 could have significant cross-border spillovers. We provide empirical estimates of these spillovers using a Bayesian vector autoregression model. We report three main results. First, spillovers from EM7 are sizeable: a 1 percentage point increase in EM7 growth is associated with a 0.9 percentage point increase in growth in other emerging and frontier markets and a 0.6 percentage point increase in world growth at the end of three years. Second, sizeable as they are, spillovers from EM7 are still smaller than those from G7 countries (Group of Seven of advanced economies). Specifically, growth in other emerging and frontier markets, and the global economy would increase by one-half to three times more due to a similarly sized increase in G7 growth. Third, among the EM7, spillovers from China are the largest and permeate globally.
    Keywords: Business Cycles; China; EM7; external shocks; G7; Spillovers
    JEL: E32 F20 F42
    Date: 2017–05
  5. By: Stukach,, Victor; Astashova, Ekaterina and; Zinich, Alla; Ushakova,, Elena; Starovoytova, Natali; Zinich,, Lubov; Якубенко, Марина
    Abstract: The problems of rural infrastructure institutions, in particular: social infrastructure, serving the economy of the population are investigated. Within the framework of a territorial micro cluster, it is proposed to create an infrastructure of public-private partnership in training personnel and providing employment, adapting young people to the market of agricultural labor, and preventing the outflow of young people. A model for the development of the distribution infrastructure for domestic food aid is proposed. The scientific bases for the development of the institutional structure at the national and regional levels are explored. The classification of market institutions is proposed, their development is evaluated, basic social and economic problems are identified that require solutions. The concept of improving the institutional structure of the regional agro-food market is proposed, reducing the transaction costs caused by administrative barriers and reducing the number of ineffective intermediaries. The work is addressed to employees of regional authorities, market research specialists, scientific workers, teachers and students of universities. Russia's accession to the WTO puts forward the creation and development of social food infrastructure institutes in the system of the megacity food market as a priority. The Omsk region is implementing a pilot project. In this area, about 20% of the total food consumption in the region is used. It is especially important that this type of assistance does not fall under the limitations of state support of commodity producers on the WTO standards.
    Keywords: rural infrastructure, social infrastructure, distribution of food aid, social infrastructure of the village, health, education, culture.
    JEL: I2 K4 O13 O15 O17 O3 O32 O35 Q13 Q18
    Date: 2016–03
  6. By: Tim Jaekel (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The motivation of civil servants has a considerable impact on their decision-making and thus the performance of a bureaucratic agency. This paper studies how innovative and error-correcting behavior of Russian public civil servants correlates with three types of motivation: public service motivation (PSM), power motivation (PM) and security motivation (SM). Civil servants with a higher level of PSM are expected to correct existing errors in standard operating procedures (SOP) and to introduce “new ways of doing things” (Fernandez and Moldogaziev 2013); and so to improve their organizations’ performance and citizens’ well-being by enhancing organizational learning. For empirical analysis the paper uses a new unique dataset with some 1,600 responses from a survey questionnaire among local civil servants in the Russian region of Leningrad. The results from regression analyses demonstrate that prosocial motivation (seven item scale, Cronbach’s alpha =0.72), power motivation (nine-item scale, Cronbach’s alpha=0.78), employee encouragement, empowerment practices, and citizens orientation are positively correlated with innovative and error-correcting. In contrast the level of security motivation and job satisfaction fail to achieve statistical significance throughout all models
    Keywords: behavioral public administration (BPA), innovative behavior, error-correcting behavior, motivation, civil servants, Russia
    JEL: D73 D81 H83
    Date: 2017
  7. By: Michael Carlos Best; Jonas Hjort; David Szakonyi
    Abstract: How much of the variation in state effectiveness is due to the individuals and organizations responsible for implementing policy? We investigate this question and its implications for policy design in the context of public procurement, using a text-based product classification method to measure bureaucratic output. We show that effective procurers lower bid preparation/submission costs, and that 60% of within-product purchase-price variation across 16 million purchases in Russia in 2011-2015 is due to the bureaucrats and organizations administering procurement processes. This has dramatic policy consequences. To illustrate these, we study a ubiquitous procurement policy: bid preferences for favored firms (here domestic manufacturers). The policy decreases overall entry and increases prices when procurers are effective, but has the opposite impact with ineffective procurers, as predicted by a simple endogenous-entry model of procurement. Our results imply that the state’s often overlooked bureaucratic tier is critical for effectiveness and the make-up of optimal policies.
    JEL: H11 O2
    Date: 2017–04
  8. By: Svetlana Ledyayeva
    Abstract: Nowadays global value chains (GVCs) play a central role in trade flows. This paper argues that GVCs can play an important role in transmission of national trade policy effects across borders. More specifically, this study examines how domestic export incentives can affect foreign countries` exporters in the presence of GVCs. Existing theoretical literature suggests that in addition to negative “competition for market share†effects, there can be positive effects, which propagate via backward and forward GVCs linkages. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first one that empirically tests these effects. In particular, using recent trade data for BRICs countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) this study shows that in the GVCs world there can be both negative and positive effects of domestic export incentives for foreign exporters as theory predicts. According to our framework, positive effects propagate via GVCs linkages.
    Keywords: export, export policy, export subsidy, export incentive, global value chains, forward linkages, backward linkages, BRICs, Brazil, Russia, China, India
    JEL: F13 F14 O10
    Date: 2017–04
  9. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Selected Issues
  10. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: Economic Development Document
    Date: 2017–05–01
  11. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: Georgia is recovering from an adverse external shock (a decline in trading partners’ growth since late 2014), although at a slower pace than previously envisaged. The economy has shown resilience to the external shock, with real GDP growth averaging 2.8 percent in 2015–16, the highest among its main trading partners, except for China and Turkey. The exchange rate was allowed to adjust, and the dollarized banking sector has weathered the significant depreciation vis-Ã -vis the dollar. With depreciation of major trading partner currencies, external competitiveness has not improved, however. Hence, external imbalances remain elevated and reserves below adequate levels. Following the October 2016 parliamentary elections that gave the ruling party a constitutional majority, the new government has united around a policy agenda centered on bolstering growth.
    Keywords: Georgia;Middle East;
    Date: 2017–04–13
  12. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: Following the political and economic turmoil of recent years, the Moldovan economy has started to recover. Economic growth in 2016 was stronger than originally projected benefiting from solid agricultural performance and better-than-expected exports; and the outlook for 2017 has been marked up. Inflation decelerated sharply from the high levels of 2015, but has returned to the target range.
    Date: 2017–05–01

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