nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2017‒05‒14
ten papers chosen by

  1. Eurasian Economic Union: Asymmetries of Growth Factors By Khusainov, Bulat; Kireyeva, Anel; Sultanov, Ruslan
  2. Moving On Up for High School Graduates in Russia: The Consequences of the Uni ed State Exam Reform By Francesconi, Marco; Slonimczyk, Fabian; Yurko, Anna
  3. Remittances, Spending and Political Instability in Ukraine By Iuliia Kuntsevych
  4. Gender, education and Russia’s tobacco epidemic: a life-course approach By Diana Quirmbach; Christopher J. Gerry
  5. The Soviet Economy, 1917-1991 : Its Life and Afterlife By Harrison, Mark
  6. Central Asia at 25 By Uuriintuya Batsaikhan; Marek Dabrowski
  7. How Important are Spillovers from Major Emerging Markets? By Raju Huidrom; M. Ayhan Kose; Franziska L. Ohnsorge
  8. Individuals and Organizations as Sources of State Effectiveness, and Consequences for Policy Design By Best, Michael; Hjort, Jonas; Szakonyi, David
  9. The main drivers of GHG emission reduction in Baltic States By Asta Mikalauskiene; Dalia Streimikiene
  10. Does migration affect education of girls and young women in Tajikistan? By Kseniia Gatskova; Artjoms Ivlevs; Barbara Dietz

  1. By: Khusainov, Bulat; Kireyeva, Anel; Sultanov, Ruslan
    Abstract: The aim of the study is to assess the asymmetry of influence of factors of economic growth of national economies, which are included in the integration. Unlike previous research, the scientific significance of the obtained results consists in the use of a new method of study – external demand as a factor of economic growth, disaggregated into two components. The first is net exports mutual trade in goods within integration associations. The second is net exports of foreign trade in goods outside the integration. By use of these methods we have evaluated the contribution of these factors on economic growth of the Customs Union and the Common Economic Space (CU/CES), as well as Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus. In the conducted analysis of scientific research was based on the fact that the economies of the member (CU/CES) are very different in scale, economic potential and volume of foreign trade. Based on this research we conclude: integration is developing successfully and efficiently only with the rise of the national economies of the member countries; to enhance economic growth and competitiveness of the countries of the Eurasian integration it is necessary to increase the volume of mutual trade of member countries of this integration.
    Keywords: Globalization; Integration; Economic Growth; External Demand; Domestic Demand; Net Exports Trade
    JEL: F1 F10 F13 F15
    Date: 2017–02
  2. By: Francesconi, Marco; Slonimczyk, Fabian; Yurko, Anna
    Abstract: In 2009, Russia introduced a reform that changed the admissions process in all universities. Before 2009, admission decisions were based on institution-specific entry exams; the reform required universities to determine their decisions on the results of a national high-school test known as Unified State Exam (USE). One of the main goals of the reform was to make education in top colleges accessible to students from peripheral areas who typically did not enroll in university programs. Using panel data from 1994 to 2014, we evaluate the effect of the USE reform on student mobility. We find the reform led to a substantial increase in mobility rates among high school graduates from peripheral areas to start college by about 12 percentage points, a three-fold increase with respect to the pre-reform mobility rate. This was accompanied by a 40-50% increase in the likelihood of financial transfers from parents to children around the time of the move and a 70% increase in the share of educational expenditures in the last year of the child's high school. We find no effect on parental labor supply and divorce.
    Keywords: Human Capital; Russia; Student migration; University admission
    JEL: J61 O15
    Date: 2017–04
  3. By: Iuliia Kuntsevych
    Abstract: This paper analyzes remittances sent by Ukrainian emigrants to their country of origin. It explores the dependence on remittances of a household's spending on human capital, savings and donations, against the backdrop of the political situation in Ukraine in 2004. The paper also explores the effect of the political instability in Ukraine on how the households receiving remittances used them. The results of a Ukrainian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (ULMS) are used to explore households' decision to spend on human capital development, save, or donate money; depending on their political views and future expectations. The main hypothesis tested is whether the individuals who supported and/or were involved with the Revolution ("pro-orange"), and who were optimistic about the future of Ukraine after the Orange Revolution, saved/donated more money than those who did not support the Revolution ("pro-blue-white"). In addition, the level of in uence of remittances received from relatives or friends outside Ukraine on decisions to save and donate money is analyzed. The results show that the political views of respondents do not have a significant effect on decisions to save and/or donate money. However respondents' political orientations do have a significant effect on the probability of receiving remittances those who voted for "pro-orange" have a lower probability of receiving remittances from outside the household.
    Keywords: remittances; remittance behavior; Ukraine; Orange Revolution; international migration;
    JEL: F22 F24 O19
    Date: 2017–03
  4. By: Diana Quirmbach; Christopher J. Gerry
    Abstract: While a number of studies, based on cross-sectional data for Russia, have documented strong increases in female smoking during the past two decades, the analysis of longer-term trends in smoking prevalence is hampered by the lack of representative data for the Soviet era. In this paper we create life-course smoking histories based on retrospective data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey of HSE (RLMS-HSE) and the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) which allow us to examine the dynamics of smoking patterns over the past 7 decades. We find that smoking rates differ most strongly by gender within all cohorts, but that this differential has decreased over time, driven by increases in female smoking and more recently by decreases in smoking among men. For both genders we observe that the education gradient has become steeper over time, with smoking rates having increased at a higher rate among those with the lowest educational attainment. These findings suggest that the development of smoking in Russia mirrors that described in the model of the tobacco epidemic and observed in Western high-income countries.
    Keywords: Life-course smoking; Economic transition; Retrospective data; Model of the tobacco epidemic; Russia; Gender
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2016–05–06
  5. By: Harrison, Mark (Centre on Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy, University of Warwick ; Centre for Russian, European, and Eurasian Studies, University of Birmingham)
    Abstract: In terms of economic development, Russia before and after the Soviet era was just an average economy. If the Soviet era is distinguished, it was not by economic growth or its contribution to human development, but by the use of the economy to build national power over many decades. In this respect, the Soviet economy was a success. It was also a tough and unequal environment in which to be born, live, and grow old. The Soviet focus on building national capabilities did improve opportunities for many citizens. Most important were the education of women and the increased survival of children. The Soviet economy was designed for the age of mass production and mass armies. That age has gone, but the idea of the Soviet economy lives on, fed by nostalgia and nationalism.
    Keywords: command economy ; communism, economic growth ; incentives ; power ; security ; Soviet Union ; war economy
    JEL: H1 N44 P20
    Date: 2017
  6. By: Uuriintuya Batsaikhan; Marek Dabrowski
    Abstract: Central Asia, though referred to as a single region, consists of five culturally and ethnically diverse countries that have followed different political and economic transformation paths in the last 25 years since independence from the Soviet Union. After experiencing more than a decade of growth based on hydrocarbon booms, these countries are faced with increasing challenges resulting from falling commodity prices, declining trade and lower migrant remittances. The main policy challenge is to move away from commodity-based growth strategies to macro-oriented diversification and adoption of a broad spectrum of economic, institutional and political reforms. However, structural diversification is easier said than done. Our analysis suggests five key policy lessons that could serve as points of departure as these countries move ahead.
    Date: 2017–05
  7. By: Raju Huidrom (WorldBank, Development Prospects Group); M. Ayhan Kose (WorldBank, Development Prospects Group; Brookings Institution; CEPR, and CAMA); Franziska L. Ohnsorge (WorldBank, Development Prospects Group; CAMA)
    Abstract: The seven largest emerging market economies China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Turkey constituted more than one-quarter of global output and more than half of global output growth during 2010-15.These emerging markets, which we call EM7,are also closely integrated with other countries, especially with other emerging and frontier markets. Given their size and integration, growth in EM7 could have significant cross-border spillovers. We provide empirical estimates of these spillovers using a Bayesian vector auto regression model. We report three main results. First, spillovers from EM7 are sizeable: a 1 percentage point increase in EM7 growth is associated with a 0.9 percentage point increase in growth in other emerging and frontier markets and a 0.6 percentage point increase in world growth at the end of three years. Second, sizeable as they are, spillovers from EM7 are still smaller than those from G7 countries (Group of Seven of advanced economies). Specifically, growth in other emerging and frontier markets, and the global economy would increase by one-half to three times more due to a similarly sized increase in G7 growth. Third, among the EM7, spillovers from China are the largest and permeate globally.
    Keywords: Business cycles; spillovers; external shocks; China; EM7; G7.
    JEL: E32 F20 F42
    Date: 2017–05
  8. By: Best, Michael; Hjort, Jonas; Szakonyi, David
    Abstract: How much of the variation in state effectiveness is due to the individuals and organizations responsible for implementing policy? We investigate this question and its implications for policy design in the context of public procurement, using a text-based product classification method to measure bureaucratic output. We show that effective procurers lower bid preparation/submission costs, and that 60% of within-product purchase-price variation across 16 million purchases in Russia in 2011-2015 is due to the bureaucrats and organizations administering procurement processes. This has dramatic policy consequences. To illustrate these, we study a ubiquitous procurement policy: bid preferences for favored firms (here domestic manufacturers). The policy decreases overall entry and increases prices when procurers are effective, but has the opposite impact with ineffective procurers, as predicted by a simple endogenous-entry model of procurement. Our results imply that the state's often overlooked bureaucratic tier is critical for effectiveness and the make-up of optimal policies.
    Keywords: bureaucrats; policy design; Procurement; public sector organizations; state capacity
    JEL: H11 O2
    Date: 2017–04
  9. By: Asta Mikalauskiene (Vilnius University); Dalia Streimikiene (Vilnius University)
    Abstract: Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia successfully implemented Kyoto protocol commitments in the period from 2008 to 2012. Moreover, targets of the Europe 2020 strategy, in which countries committed to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions of 1990 by 20% until 2020 are also achievable for Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. It is forecasted that the reduction of GHG emissions in 2020 in the Baltic States will be much higher than EU average target. Baltic States have achieved significant reduction of GHG emissions during 1990-2015, especially in energy sector which is the major sources of GHG emissions in Baltic States. During the period 1990?2013, Lithuania?s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita increased by 56.8 per cent, while GHG emissions per GDP and GHG emissions per capita decreased by 66.7 and 47.8 per cent, respectively. The major reason for the decrease in per capita emissions are the structural changes in the energy sector. At the same period, Latvia?s population decreased by 24.4 per cent, GDP per capita increased by 64.0 per cent, while GHG emissions per GDP and GHG emissions per capita decreased by 66.4 and 44.8 per cent, respectively. Latvia?s economy grew rapidly in the period 2000?2007, with a GDP increase of 82.0 per cent. Economic growth rates and climatic conditions have been the most important drivers for GHG emissions trends in Latvia. Estonia?s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita increased by 85.1 per cent, while GHG emissions per GDP and GHG emissions per capita decreased by 65.1 and 35.3 per cent, respectively. Such significant GHG emission reduction in Estonia was driven by restructuring of the economy and efficiency improvement in the energy industry and energy demand sectors. There is a significant decoupling of emissions from economic growth in all three countries however countries have very different energy supply balances and implemented various climate change mitigation policies.
    Keywords: GHG emissions, drivers, energy sector, Baltic States
    Date: 2017–04
  10. By: Kseniia Gatskova; Artjoms Ivlevs; Barbara Dietz
    Abstract: We study how migration affects education of girls in Tajikistan—the poorest post-Soviet state and one of the most remittance-dependent economies in the world. Using data from a threewave household panel survey conducted in 2007, 2009, and 2011, we find that the effect of migration on girls’ school attendance differs markedly by age. School attendance of young girls (ages 7–11) improves when either parents or sibling migrate, as well as when the household starts receiving remittances. In contrast, school attendance of teenage girls (ages 12–17) falls when siblings migrate, while parental migration and remittances have no effect. Having a grandmother as the head of household after parents (typically fathers) migrate improves school attendance of young and teenage girls, but reduces school attendance of young women (ages 18–22). We also find that in localities where the share of migrants is already high, an increase in the share of migrant households is associated with an increase in the marriage rate. Our results support various channels through which emigration of household members may affect girls’ and young women’s education: relaxation of budget constraints, increase in household work, change in the head of household, and pressure to marry early. Overall, our study suggests that the net effect of migration on girls’ schooling turns from positive to negative with girls’ age; this implies that migration may be detrimental to women’s empowerment in Tajikistan and casts doubts on whether migration is an appropriate long-term development strategy for this country.
    Date: 2017

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