nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2017‒04‒09
six papers chosen by

  1. The Russian Economic Crisis and Falling Remittances in Central Asia By Yun, ChiHyun
  2. Russia's Economic Modernization Policy and Implications for Cooperation between Korea and Russia By Kang, Boogyun; Min, Jiyoung; Jeh, Sung Hoon
  3. Estimated Small Multiple Regions Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model By Bulat Mukhamediyev; Mukhamediyev Bulat
  4. Credit Dynamics of Various Entities in Russia: Impact of Oil Prices and Sanctions By Yulia Vymyatnina
  5. Preisdiskriminierung und Marktmacht auf den internationalen Düngemittelmärkten: Empirische Evidenz aus dem russischen Düngemittelexportmarkt By Goretzki, Philipp; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Glauben, Thomas; Loy, Jens-Peter
  6. From Salary to the Performance-Based Remuneration of Russian Physicians: How Motivation at Work is Changing By Sergey Shishkin; Aleksandr Temnitsky

  1. By: Yun, ChiHyun (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Long since before the Russian economic crisis, remittances from Russia have been a major source of foreign currency income in Central Asia. In 2013, Tajikistan received remittances of $4,219 million, or 49.6%, as a proportion of GDP. In the same year, remittances accounted for 31.1% and 11.1% of GDP in the Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan, respectively. By that time, approximately 60-80% of labor migrants of these three remittance-dependent Central Asian countries, a population of roughly 4.3 million, were assumed to be residing in Russia. Remittances from Russia amounted to $14 billion, which accounted for more than 90% of total remittance inflows. However, Western economic sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine Crisis in mid-2014, and the collapse of the Russian ruble coinciding with persisting lower oil prices, have negatively affected the remittance-dependent countries over the last two years. Remittance inflows slashed in half, the unemployment rate jumped as a large number of migrant workers lost their jobs, and the inflation rate rose due to extreme currency depreciation. In this context, this article aims to understand the current economic status of the three remittance-dependent countries in Central Asia - Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan - and suggest countermeasures for sustainable socio-economic development in terms of labor migration and remittances.
    Keywords: Remittances; Labor Migrant; Migration; Central Asia; Kyrgyz Republic; Tajikistan; Uzbekistan; Russia
    Date: 2016–11–30
  2. By: Kang, Boogyun (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Min, Jiyoung (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Jeh, Sung Hoon (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The goal of Russia's economic modernization policy is to transform the economy, heavily dependent on energy exports, into an innovation-based economy. There are diverse views as to the achievements and limits of Russia's economic modernization policy. The Russian leadership considers the discussions over goals, policy directions and priority sectors of the modernization policy to be yet unfinished. Meanwhile, experts do agree in general that economic modernization is a laudable policy direction for sustainable development and that the government's willingness, efficient operation of the constituent mechanisms, improving the investment environment through intensive structural reforms, and promoting innovation of SMEs through political and financial methods are critical factors for the policy's success. Recently, the Russian government has shown a tendency to include economic reform tasks such as nurturing import substitute industries and SMEs in economic modernization policies. This reflects Russia's reality in which comprehensive reforms led by the government are urgently called for. The five sectors - energy efficiency, nuclear technology, ICT, space technology, and medical and pharmaceutical technology - are still Russia's key priority, and the industries are discussed as core agendas by the Council for Economic Modernization and Innovative Development, the control tower of the policy. Based on the findings of this study, measures for Korea-Russia cooperation in terms of Russia's economic modernization policy are suggested as follows. First, a Korea-Russia business forum for innovative venture companies should be held simultaneously when the Korea-Russia Joint Committee on Economic, Scientific and Technological Cooperation convenes. Second, it is necessary to open a Korea Innovation Center (KIC) in Moscow and set up cooperative relations with the implementing agencies of the economic modernization policy.Third, the next generation's human resources should be nurtured to enhance scientific and technological cooperation between Korea and Russia. Fourth, Russia's special industrial and innovative economic zones can be utilized as a platform for Korea-Russia cooperation. Fifth, launching a Korean-Russian portal site for economic modernization and innovation will be helpful in strengthening bilateral cooperation.
    Keywords: Russia Economic Modernization; Cooperation Between Korea And Russia
    Date: 2016–01–22
  3. By: Bulat Mukhamediyev; Mukhamediyev Bulat
    Abstract: Small open economy is vulnerable to various macroeconomic shocks arising in large economies. It must take into account their possible consequences in own economic policy. In paper a small dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for several counties/regions is presented. It develops an Obstfeld & Rogoff (2001) approach and its subsequent variants for model of the two countries, taking into account the nominal price rigidity. In each country domestic and foreign goods are consumed.The model is estimated on the data of Kazakhstan, Russia, China and the European Union. The results of the model simulation are discussed from the viewpoint of the influence of external and internal shocks to the small open economy of Kazakhstan.
    Keywords: Kazakhstan, Russia, China and the European Union, Impact and scenario analysis, General equilibrium modeling
    Date: 2015–07–01
  4. By: Yulia Vymyatnina
    Abstract: Credit is one of the most important indicators leading boom/bust periods in the economy, therefore studying its dynamics (cycles) allows for early warning of overheating. At the same time credit is important driver of economic growth, and cases of credit constraints for the country as a whole or some of its sectors of companies often become a serious obstacle for growth and development. Sanctions, especially financial, represent one possible way of constraining country's economic prospects. Recent sanctions against Russia might seem relatively mild, but Russian economy was growing at lower and lower rates with oil prices decreasing at the same time. Our aim is to decompose the effects of sanctions and oil prices on the credit dynamics of various entities in Russia. At the first stage we identify credit cycles using threshold method. After the seasonal component is eliminated, we proceed with disaggregating time series we use for our study into long-run trend and cyclical components. For this we apply the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter. We favour its use compared to the Baxter-King filter since the latter cuts off some data at the beginning and the end of the times series, and since we have only 64 observations for the longest time series, we opted for HP filter that uses more information. Once the trend is accounted for, thresholds (of statistical nature) can be applied to determine the start and the end dates of the credit boom, denoting cyclical variations higher than average. More precisely, if lit is the deviation of the logarithm of real per capita credit from its long-run trend and if σ(li) is the standard deviation of the cyclical component of real per capita credit, then if on one or more particular sequential dates it is true that lit ≥ φσ(li) (φ is the threshold), we can claim that on this date(s) credit boom was observed. To check for robustness, alternative values of φ were used. At the second stage VECM models were constructed to account for the interaction of endogenous variables. In all cases, however, the coefficients and the share of explained variation due to endogenous variables in the equation for credit indicator were statistically insignificant, which allowed us to use a simple single-equation model for out-of-sample forecasting. The data until the 4th quarter 2013 were used for estimation, and then the data on exogenous variables were used for out-of-sample forecasting (dynamic). The difference until 4th quarter 2014 was used to measure the quality of the forecast and to judge if the quality of the forecast since 4th quarter 2014 could be used as a proxy of the sanctions effect. In order to determine the effect of oil prices, the out-of-sample forecast was also made using the average quarterly oil prices for 2012-2013. Additionally it should be mentioned, that the impulse response analysis in VECM models in most cases demonstrated significant response of GDP gap on changes in the oil prices. In the case of internal credit indicators the internal interest rate also showed response to the GDP gap proxy changes and to the changes in the oil prices. Most of the private sector external credits saw the boom coinciding with the time of the world financial crisis of 2008-2009, while for the government the boom in external borrowing was identified in 2012-2013. The government-affiliated companies and banks had another external credit boom at the end of 2014 – early 2015. It should be stressed that it is visible that financial sanctions have changed the composition of external borrowing from direct investments, bonds and credits to more short-term and less direct external financing. External credit was partly substituted for by internal credit as the boom at the end of the study period suggests. Again, the government has somewhat different timings of credit booms in relation to internal credits. Mostly total internal credit has the same timings of booms as credit in national currency, which is not surprising taking into account the dominant share of credit in national currency in the total outstanding credit, especially after the crisis of 2008-2009 when the banking system became aware of the necessity to deal with the currency mismatch between assets and liabilities. Results of decomposing the effects on external borrowing and domestic credit into effect related to decreasing oil prices and effect due to external (financial) sanctions show that sanctions are felt more compared to decrease in oil prices (in case of external borrowing), and that short-term borrowing decreased less for government companies and banks. Domestic credit market was also influenced by sanctions and decreasing oil prices to varying degrees as external credit was largely substituted by domestic credit where possible.
    Keywords: Russia, Macroeconometric modeling, Business cycles
    Date: 2016–07–04
  5. By: Goretzki, Philipp; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Glauben, Thomas; Loy, Jens-Peter
    Abstract: Der vorliegende Beitrag stellt empirische Ergebnisse zur Analyse von Marktverhalten der russischen Exporteure auf den internationalen Märkten für Düngemittel vor. Der Fokus auf Russland begründet sich darin, dass das Land beim Einsturz des Kali-Kartells stark im Rampenlicht stand. Bei zwei der drei exportierten Düngemittelgüter hat Russland einen sehr großen Anteil an den Gesamtexporten und macht, mit einigen wenigen anderen Ländern zusammen, über die Hälfte der globalen Versorgung aus. Zur Überprüfung der Hypothesen zum Marktverhalten wird als Grundmodell der "pricing-to-market" (PTM)-Ansatz nach KRUGMAN (1986, 1987) gewählt. Zur empirischen Überprüfung kommt das weiterentwickelte Modell von KNETTER (1989) zur Anwendung. Im Ergebnis zeigt sich, dass ein imperfekter Wettbewerb auf dem russischen Exportmarkt für Stickstoffdüngemittel in zwei Drittel der untersuchten Destinationsländer herrscht. Auf dem Exportmarkt für Kali ließ sich nur in einem von 9 untersuchenden Ländern ein ausreichend vollkommener Markt finden.
    Keywords: Marktmacht,Preisdiskriminierung,Internationaler Markt,Düngemittel,Russland,pricing-to-market (PTM),market power,price discrimination,international market,fertilizer,Russia
    JEL: D43 F12 F14 L11 L13
    Date: 2017
  6. By: Sergey Shishkin (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Aleksandr Temnitsky (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper examines changes in the motivation of physicians at work since the start of the salary reforms in 2008. These reforms included a shift from a fixed salary system to performance-based remuneration and an overall increase in salaries. The data of six surveys of health workers from 2007–2016 were used to reveal physician’s motives at work and to track the changes during this period. The changes were minor, and the directions of these changes were contrary to the expected strengthening of financial motivation at work: the importance of earning money is no longer primary. The share of doctors willing to work more and better on the condition of linking salary with labour contribution did not increase. In contrast, almost 66% of physicians believe that they are working at a high level of quality and performance.The majority of physicians desire an increase in the base salary, not the performance-based part. Doctors who receive bonuses for the intensity, quality and performance of their work, and those who have a higher salary overall also wish to see a higher base salary. This is a clear indication that they wish to strengthen the protective function of the base salary rather than to have increased opportunities for earning money
    Keywords: health care, physicians, salary, performance based remuneration, motivation at work, incentives.
    JEL: I18 J08 J31
    Date: 2017

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