nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2017‒04‒02
sixteen papers chosen by

  1. Использование взаимосвязи между ВВП и денежной массой для экономического прогнозирования By BLINOV, Sergey
  2. Occupational Intention of Public Administration Undergraduates By Tim Jaekel; Georgiy Borshchevskiy
  3. Russian Bank Database : Birth and Death, Location, Mergers, Deposit Insurance Participation, State and Foreign Ownership By A.O. Karas; Andrei Vernikov
  4. Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Performance in Emerging Economies: Some Evidence using FAVAR Models By Naser, Hanan; Ahmed, Abdul Rashid
  5. Monthly Report No. 9/2016 By Doris Hanzl-Weiss; Mario Holzner; Michael Landesmann; Roman Römisch
  6. The strategic implications of the second Russia-China gas deal on the European gas market: insights from a Hotelling model in a game theoretical framework By Anton Orlov
  7. Democracy and Trade—Evidence along the Distribution of Trading Activity By Astrid Krenz; Ana Abeliansky
  8. Unhealthy Behaviours: An International Comparison By Ferretti, Fabrizio
  9. Precariousness in Russia: Attitudes, Work and Life Experience of Young Adults with Higher Education By Elena N. Gasiukova; Sergey A. Korotaev
  10. Sanctions and public opinion : the case of the Russia-Ukraine gas disputes By Seitz, William; Presbitero, Andrea; Zazzaro, Alberto
  11. Долгосрочное банковское кредитование: какие банки им занимаются и почему? By Vernikov, Andrei; Mamonov, Mikhail
  12. Russian Industrial Statistics By Suhara, Manabu
  13. Russian Agricultural Statisitics By Suhara, Manabu
  14. Two Models of Primary Health Care Development: Russia vs. Central and Eastern European Countries By Igor Sheiman; Vladimir Shevski
  16. Toothless reforms: The remarkable stability of female labor force participation in a top-reforming country By Norberto Pignatti; Karine Torosyan; Maka Chitanava

  1. By: BLINOV, Sergey
    Abstract: Forecasts showing how the economy will be developing are very important both for the government and for all the economic agents, including citizens. In Russia, the common practice is to forecast based on price assumptions for hydrocarbons, primarily oil. Such an approach causes serious errors. This paper proposes a different approach driven by the close linkage between the GDP and the real money supply. By way of an example, forecast scenarios for Russia’s GDP in 2017 are adduced. Options for using the proposed methodology in economic, including anti-crisis, policies are suggested. Прогнозы развития экономики очень важны как для государства, так и для всех экономических агентов, включая граждан. В России распространённой практикой является прогнозирование, базирующееся на предположениях о ценах на углеводородное сырьё, прежде всего нефть. Такой подход приводит к серьёзным ошибкам. В данной работе предлагается другой подход, основанный на тесной взаимосвязи ВВП и реальной денежной массы. В качестве примера приведены варианты прогноза ВВП России на 2017 год. Предложены варианты использования предложенной методики в экономической, в том числе антикризисной, политике.
    Keywords: денежно-кредитная политика; экономические циклы; методы прогнозирования; энергоресурсы;
    JEL: C53 C54 E37 E52 Q43
    Date: 2017–03–12
  2. By: Tim Jaekel (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Georgiy Borshchevskiy (. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: Augmenting behavioral public administration to occupational intention research we investigate the link between three types of motivation, and the intention of students to work in civil service after graduation. We make detailed observations of the self-reported job preferences of 2nd public administration undergraduates in two prestigious universities in Moscow, Russian Federation. We report that federal civil service is the top destination for Russian PA undergraduates. We also report that working in federal civil service by far triumphs over regional public administration in terms of self-reported occupational intention. We also make in-depth observations of the expected utility underlying students’ job preferences. We use these observations to propose a general model of civil service job intention. The model posits that the intention to work in civil service after graduation results from two major sources: the perceived expectation from parents with a civil service background, and the expected utility from four benefits of public sector employment. We empirically demonstrate that public service motivation is positively correlated with the intention to work in civil service after graduation
    Keywords: Behavioral Public Administration, Occupational preference formation, civil service job intention, public service motivation, Russia
    JEL: D73 H83
    Date: 2017
  3. By: A.O. Karas; Andrei Vernikov
    Abstract: For every Russian bank we collect records of its registration, license withdrawal, liquidation, location changes, mergers and acquisitions, entrance to and exit from the Deposit Insurance System as well as state and foreign ownership. We describe our sources and the resulting database.
    Keywords: Russia, banks, data, state ownership, foreign ownership
    Date: 2016–07
  4. By: Naser, Hanan; Ahmed, Abdul Rashid
    Abstract: This paper examines the response of real stock prices to oil price shocks for four selected emerging economies over the period January 1991–March 2011. To overcome the problem of omitted information in small-scale vector autoregression (VAR) models, we utilize the factor augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach proposed by Bernanke et al. (2005). Accordingly, we follow Stock and Watson (2002b) and extract two factors which are significantly related with a large set of world-level and country-specific macroeconomic variables. We use the extracted factors as regressors in recursive VARs to assess the response of stock prices to oil price shocks. Our results suggest that the response of stock prices to oil price shocks is quite persistent and precise, but asymmetric across all the four economies. Specifically, we observe that stock prices in Brazil and India respond negatively to oil price shocks, whereas the response of stock prices to oil price shocks in China is positive. We also observe that stock prices in Russia initially respond positively, however, the response becomes negative after four months. The impulse-response results indicate that the impact of oil price shocks on stock prices is smaller for China than that of for remaining three countries. Overall, our results suggest that the use of FAVAR approach allows us to obtained more coherent evidence on the effects of oil price shocks on stock prices by obtaining relatively more precise responses and by increasing the understanding of such shocks from the theoretical point of view.
    Keywords: emerging economies; stock prices, oil price shocks, FAVAR
    JEL: C58 G15 O4
    Date: 2016–12–30
  5. By: Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Michael Landesmann (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Roman Römisch (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Graph of the month Ukraine Natural gas tariffs for households, 2010-2016 (p. 1) Opinion corner Where does Brexit leave the EU and the European integration process? (by Michael Landesmann; pp. 2-5) Austria’s position in the EU Strategy for the Danube Region (by Roman Römisch; pp. 6‑9) Recent developments of Austrian FDI in the CESEE region – banking is still important (by Mario Holzner; pp. 10-13) The Austrian car parts industry winner or loser of integration? (by Doris Hanzl-Weiss; pp. 14-18) Recommended reading (p. 19) Statistical Annex Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe (pp. 20-41)
    Keywords: Brexit, EU integration, economic policy, economic development, integration, cohesion policy, foreign direct investment, banking sector, international trade, car industry, global value chains
    Date: 2016–09
  6. By: Anton Orlov
    Abstract: At the end of 2014, Russia and China signed a framework for the second gas agreement. According to this agreement, Russia will supply 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas to China over 30 years via the future Altai pipeline, which would connect Asian and European gas markets. This paper analyses the potential impacts of the second gas agreement on the European gas market. The analysis is based on an analytical and numerical Hotelling model. The core Hotelling model has been modified as follows: (i) three gas markets (Europe, China, and Russia) are considered; (ii) Russia is assumed to have market power in the European and Chinese gas markets; (iii) domestic gas prices are regulated in Russia; (iv) a finite planning horizon, which implies that agents plan for a finite future, is incorporated; and (v) a stock effect, which occurs when the marginal production cost is affected by the remaining stock, is introduced. In the numerical Hotelling model, the European gas market is depicted as oligopolistic competition in a game theoretical framework. The numerical Hotelling model is formulated as a mixed complementarity problem. The analysis leads to several interesting findings. Export netback gas prices for Europe and China should not necessarily be the same due to different degrees of market power, even if the resource constraint is binding. Gas exports to China will not necessarily result in re-optimisation of the Russian profit maximisation strategy in Europe, at least in the medium-term. Given the assumptions of a finite planning horizon and large gas reserves, Russia could face a non-binding resource constraint. In that case, Russia will continue to supply gas to Europe. Nevertheless, gas exports to China ultimately reduce the potential of Russia to supply gas to Europe in the long-term. Our results show that Russia could take a stronger bargaining position after 2050, when scarcity concerns could become more pronounced. Furthermore, in the presence of a stock effect, Russia could bargain with Europe for a higher gas price to compensate for an increase in the marginal production cost. Under a supply elasticity equalling unity, the stock effect could result in an annual reduction in the export supply of gas to Europe by 12 bcm. Nevertheless, scarcity concerns as well as adverse stock effects could be diminished if implicit subsidies on domestic gas consumption are reduced in Russia. The domestic gas market covers a large potential for gas exports. A 20% increase in the domestic gas price in Russia could potentially release 29 bcm of gas for export markets annually. We use a dynamic multi-region multi-sector CGE model. The Russia-China gas deal can lead to a substantial reduction in CO2 emission via a reduction in coal consumption. Furthermore, the average gas price in Europe can be increased because of reallocation of Russian gas from the European to the Asian gas market.
    Keywords: Russia; EU; China, Energy and environmental policy, Impact and scenario analysis
    Date: 2015–07–01
  7. By: Astrid Krenz; Ana Abeliansky
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of democracy on trade along the distribution of countries' trading activity. We find a stronger relationship between democracy and trade at the lower quantiles of the trading activity, especially for the importing activity. Our results imply that the impact of democratization on trade is more important at a lower level of trading activity. Democratization's marginal benefit decreases over the distribution of the trading activity. We specially focus on a widely neglected issue in the literature: economies with higher trading activity are not necessarily the most democratic countries in the world. We find particular differences in the case of China, Malaysia, Mexico and Russia. Quantile regressions offer a powerful tool to detect these interdependencies. Using a conditional mean estimation methodology only leads to the wrong conclusion that the relationship between democracy and trade remains the same across the distribution of the trading activity and across different countries. See above See above
    Keywords: NA, Trade issues, Trade issues
    Date: 2015–07–01
  8. By: Ferretti, Fabrizio
    Abstract: In the current global economy, chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have become the leading cause of death and a major health concern for both developed and developing countries. Among other factors, the worldwide spread of NCDs is driven by the globalisation of unhealthy habits. The purpose of this paper is to develop a simple statistic to measure, at the national level, the average population’s exposure to the main NCDs modifiable risk factors. The approach and methodology followed by the United Nations Development Programme to compute the Human Development Index (HDI) is applied to four basic indicators of NCD-related preventable risk factors (alcohol consumption, excess caloric intake, non-balanced diet and tobacco use) in 112 countries worldwide in 2012–14.We obtain a summary composite index, which we call the Unhealthy Behaviour Index (UBI), which ranks countries by the average level of the unhealthy habits (drinking, eating and smoking) of their populations.We find that Belarus and Russian federation are the two countries with the unhealthiest NCD-related lifestyle.With the exception of Canada, the first twenty populations more exposed to the main NCDs preventable risk factors all live in European countries, and mainly in countries of Eastern Europe. Overall, the UBI tends to increase along with the level of human development. In medium, high and very high HDI countries, however, the same level of human development may be associated with very different kinds of NCD-related lifestyles. Finally, economic growth may push populations toward either more unhealthy or healthy habits, depending on the countries’ level of development; the elasticity of unhealthy habits with respect to income per capita is positive (but less than one: on average 0.6) until $30,000, decreases as income rises, and becomes negative (around -0.3) in very high income countries.
    Keywords: Economic growth, Unhealthy habits, Non-communicable diseases, Human development, Unhealthy Behaviour Index
    JEL: I12 I15 O10
    Date: 2015–10–05
  9. By: Elena N. Gasiukova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Sergey A. Korotaev (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The purpose of this article is to show how Russian workers with higher professional education who are in precarious employment and live in larger cities perceive the lack of stability in their employment, life, and their prospects, and what influences their decision-making with respect to career. Our analysis is based on evidence from 10 semi-structured in-depth interviews. The method of consensual qualitative research (CQR) is employed. The analysis reveals that standard employment does not seem to offer significant benefits to respondents, because it does not guarantee an adequate level of labor market, income and social security, while it imposes unnecessary obligations with respect to organisation and concomitant constraints. On the contrary, flexible employment allows them to choose the jobs and working conditions that correspond to their lifestyles. The respondents demonstrate high levels of responsibility for the life, as well as high level of risk tolerance. They resort to contingent professional tactics, and have a short-term vision of the future. At the same time, their position is unstable, financially vulnerable, and highly dependent on the amount of resources (mainly economic and social capitals) at their disposal
    Keywords: unstable employment, employment trajectories, precariousness, non-standard employment, qualitative analysis, CQR method.
    JEL: Z13 Z1
    Date: 2017
  10. By: Seitz, William; Presbitero, Andrea; Zazzaro, Alberto
    Abstract: Economic sanctions usually fail, sometimes even provoking the opposite of the intended outcome. Why are sanctions so often ineffective? One prominent view is that sanctions generate popular support for the targeted government; an outcome referred to as the rally-around-the-flag effect. But despite substantial anecdotal evidence, the lack of suitable data gathered during sanction events has prevented direct study of the rally-around-the-flag effect. We address this gap using a panel household survey in Ukraine that collected data on political and economic preferences before and after a major trade dispute with the Russian Federation. The dispute led to a cut in gas exports to Ukraine and dramatically increasing gas prices for consumers. Our findings show that people more directly affected by the sharp increase in gas prices were substantially more likely to change their political views in a "pro-Western" direction and in support of a more open democratic system. We identify a similar effect regarding economic policies, leading to more than a doubling in the likelihood of supporting liberal market views. Suggestive but less conclusive evidence also suggests that Ukrainians who were more directly affected by the dispute were more likely to support joining the European Union.
    Keywords: Foreign relations, Natural gas, Eastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine, Sanctions, Gas Dispute, Rally-Around-the-Flag, Economic sanctions
    JEL: F13 F51
    Date: 2017–03
  11. By: Vernikov, Andrei; Mamonov, Mikhail
    Abstract: We study the determinants of longer-term bank lending to the real economy in Russia. Our empirical results confirm the «development view» of state-controlled banks who display the highest propensity to lend long-term. We control for such variables as cost of funding and the market power in the corporate loan market. The share of long-term loans in bank assets would benefit from a lower average cost of funds and a diversification of funding sources, as well as larger average size of banks, higher capital adequacy and a less risky lending policy.
    Keywords: Russia, bank lending, state-controlled banks
    JEL: E50 G21 O16 P2
    Date: 2017–02–27
  12. By: Suhara, Manabu
    Abstract: Historical Russian statistics on industry are discussed in this paper. Russia attained impressive economic development in the century from the emancipation of Russian serfs to around 1960, although growth was interrupted by the October Revolution, the Civil War, and World War II. The mainspring of Russia’s advancement was industrial growth. The mainly agrarian economy, in which the rural population accounted for about 80% of the total at the end of the 19th century, underwent a complete change in economic structure. This Russian success, however, came to an end at the end of the 1950s and beginning of the 1960s. The mining and manufacturing industries, which until then had led the economy, lost vigor, and the industrial economy as a whole withered. This deterioration led to the collapse of the Soviet Union by the end of the 20th century and the start of systemic transformation to capitalism. In this paper we look back at the history of Russia from the viewpoint of industrial statistics. In the first section, we adopt a general view of industrial statistics in Russia under the Tsarist regime. Some estimates of production indices for the industry of the Russian Empire are presented and compared. Then in the second section, production, labor, and capital statistics for Russian industry in the Soviet era are discussed, followed by the third section, in which changes in industrial statistics for Russia’s new era are summarized.
    Date: 2017–03
  13. By: Suhara, Manabu
    Abstract: This paper will discuss Russian agricultural statistics. Section 1 below introduces an overview of agricultural statistics in Imperial Russia, and presents the results of calculations of agricultural production indices from this data. Sections 2 and 3 address agricultural statistics for the Russian Republic (RSFSR) during the Soviet era: Section 2 briefly reflects on Soviet agriculture, and considers the significance of agriculture in the economy of the Soviet Union. This is in order to deepen understanding of the agricultural statistics of the Russian Republic to be introduced in Section 3. Section 3 shows the main agricultural statistics released by the Russian Republic statistical authorities in organized formats, and indicates related issues. Specifically, the first part of Section 3 presents statistics related to agricultural production in the Russian Republic, and the second part provides the problems with Soviet Union (Russian Republic) official statistics as indicated by scholars particularly in the West. The third part addresses statistics related to the main forms of agricultural operations in the Soviet Union, such as kolkhozy and sovkhozy, and the fourth part summarizes statistics related to labor in agriculture in the Russian Republic. Section 4 presents an outline of the changes in Russian agriculture and agricultural statistics since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
    Date: 2017–03
  14. By: Igor Sheiman (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Vladimir Shevski (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper explores primary health care models in Russia and in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. Starting with the similar model, they have taken totally different ways of primary health care transformation, including the role of general practitioner, multi-specialty polyclinics and private sector. The comparison of this diversity, based on the conceptual framework of Primary Health Care Activity Monitor in Europe, demonstrated that the scores of primary care in Russia are relatively lower, particularly in the dimensions of accessibility, comprehensiveness, continuity and coordination of care. The score of the selected efficiency indicators is also relatively low. The major reasons for this are discussed, including the lack of strategic vision on the role of primary care, an excessive specialization of primary care and the delay with a shift to a general practitioner model. A debatable issue of primary care extended composition (the involvement of a growing number of specialists) is also addressed. The conceptual presumption that an extended composition presents new opportunities for more integrated care and better performance has not been supported by the evidence. Big multi-specialty policlinics in Russia don’t demonstrate advantages over solo and group GP practices that dominate in CEE countries. The potential of polyclinics is not used because of the lack of specific activities for integration. It is argued that new specialists in the practices can strengthen primary care only when they support generalists rather than replace them. The lesson learnt from CEE countries is that substantial changes are needed to overcome the lagging status of primary care in Russia, including overcoming the excessive specialization of primary care, the replacement of district physicians by general practitioners, developing the forms of independent practices operating in parallel with polyclinics and competing with them
    Keywords: Health policy Primary health care General practitioner Polyclinics Coordination of Care
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2017
  15. By: ARMAN MAZHIKEYEV; Huw Edwards
    Abstract: A period of new Eurasian Regional Integration has already begun in parts of the For- mer Soviet Union. Following the experience of European Union, the `troika' (namely, Kaza- khstan, Russia and Belarus) are working toward establishment of a Eurasian Union. The troika have taken serious steps, in a speedy manner, toward the formation of an Eurasian region (the Eurasian Customs Union, the CIS Free Trade Agreement, and the Single Eco- nomic Space, and the Eurasian Economic Union). However, whether all the members and the entire region will achieve the gains from fast EU like integration and the union will be marked as successful one is yet being questioned. Studies believe that the union has more of a political rather than an economic motivation, that could result in negative economic externalities rather then gains.This study attempt to assess the impact of asymmetry and symmetry in bargaining in deeper Eurasian regional integration. The analysis carried out using the modern multi- country multi-sector CGE approach with suitable specications with a number of trade costs measures using the gravity concept. The novelty in this study is the use of implicit trade costs obtained using Overall Trade Cost Index (Novy [69]) which then has been decomposed into policy (tari and non-tari), non-policy (markups and value added costs) and transport costs econometrically. We rstly performed shallow integration scenario simulation with actual changes in tari rates from 2009 to (expected rates for) 2015 of the troika, rest of CIS and aggregate ROW multilaterally. Further we used Overall Trade Cost Indices for EU and CIS countries from the WB-ESCAP trade costs database to make assumptions regarding multilateral changes in NTBs, border, transport and other costs in two deeper integration scenarios of equal and unequal (bias toward Russia) treatment of members.Based on the results of simulation work, we can conclude that if there will be equal treatment of members of the new integration, the members will likely benet from the gains and positive externalities of deeper integration in the future. However, if we take account of the Russian bargaining power and future asymmetric treatment of members, smaller members Kazakhstan, Belarus, plus other joiners are less likely receive expected gains. This work does not take account of other changes in policies (Russia's WTO assessment, sanctions against Russia by the Western Bloc, impact of situations in Ukraine-Russian borders etc.) but changes in trade costs (NTBs, taris, transport and border costs and value added costs).
    Keywords: UK, Modeling: new developments, General equilibrium modeling
    Date: 2015–07–01
  16. By: Norberto Pignatti (International School of Economics - Tbilisi); Karine Torosyan (International School of Economics at Tbilisi State University); Maka Chitanava (ISET Policy Institute)
    Abstract: Low Female Labor Force Participation (FLFP) constitutes a foregone opportunity at both the macro and at the micro levels, potentially increasing the vulnerability of households and lowering the long-run development perspectives of a country. Most international organizations and national policy makers see low FLFP as a serious issue that needs to be addressed by adopting appropriate policies. We investigate the possible reasons of the remarkable stability of FLFP in a top-reforming upper-middle income country. Our goal is to disentangle the different forces at work and to draw useful lessons for the design of participation-enhancing policies. Using data from a nationally representative Household Survey covering the period 2003-2015, we employ Blinder-Oaxaca (Blinder, 1973 and Oaxaca, 1973) type decomposition to decompose changes over time in FLFP levels into parts that are due to changes in observable factors versus changes in the strength of impact of these factors. This allows us to identify possible shifters of the FLFP rate and proposing areas of special interest for policy making. We show that the stability of FLFP in Georgia during the period 2003-2013 is due to a number of relevant – but offsetting – socio-economic changes taking place in the country, and that the increase in the last period covered by our dataset – 2013-2015 – can be attributed to the emergence of new labor opportunities for women. We conclude that, while useful, supply-side economic reforms (and policies) are not sufficient to increase FLFP and need to be complemented by demand-side policies aiming at creating more and better work opportunities for women.
    Keywords: employment, female labor force participation, labor market, public policy, reforms, former soviet union, georgia
    JEL: J16 J18 J21 J24 P11 P21 P23
    Date: 2017–03

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