nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2017‒03‒05
five papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. The Exchange Rate Pass-Through to CPI and its components in Oil-Exporting CIS Countries By Vugar Rahimov; Nigar Jafarova; Fuad Ganbarov
  2. The impact of state-controlled banks on the Russian banking sector By Vernikov, Andrei
  3. Russian Perspectives on the Third Offset Strategy and Its Implications for Russian-Chinese Defense TechnologicalCooperation By KASHIN, Vasily
  4. A Chinese Perspective on the US Third Offset Strategy and Possible Chinese Responses By FAN, Gaoyue
  5. 02-2017 Интервью академика Ивантера В.В. Российской газете - спецвыпуск №7065 (197): «Упражнения на бревне» от 01.09.2016 By Ивантер В.В.

  1. By: Vugar Rahimov (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Nigar Jafarova (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Fuad Ganbarov (Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, Institute of Economics)
    Abstract: In this study, we explore the pass-through of exchange rate fluctuations to domestic CPI and its components for Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia. Using the data of 2003:Q1-2016:Q2, we estimate a VAR model and find significant but incomplete pass-through in all sample countries. The accumulated pass-through to aggregate CPI within one year is 28 percent for both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan; however the equivalent figure for Russia is 32 percent. According to our empirical findings the largest pass-through (ERPT) is observed in the non-food CPI in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, whereas in Russia the food prices demonstrate the greatest ERPT. Since the ERPT is an essential ingredient of price developments in sample countries, it should be assessed precisely and taken into account in monetary policy decisions and inflation forecasting.
    Keywords: Exchange rate pass-through, VAR model, disaggregated CPI, oil exporting countries
    JEL: F31 E31 E52 C51 C52
    Date: 2017–02
  2. By: Vernikov, Andrei
    Abstract: This paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country’s banking system in early 2011. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country’s state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author’s interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country’s banking sector.
    Keywords: Russia, Russian banks, government control, state-owned banks, public sector, bank assets, bank deposits, bank loans, Chinese banks, private banks
    JEL: G21 G28 H82 L80 P52
    Date: 2017–02–27
  3. By: KASHIN, Vasily
    Abstract: The development of the US Third Offset Strategy has been closely watched by the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Russian defense industry, and Russian academics and government agencies. Although Russia has active technology development programs comparable to those associated with the Third Offset Strategy, the Russian authorities are paying close attention to what effects US breakthroughs might have on strategic, especially nuclear, stability. In light of worsening relations with the West, Russia seems to be reconsidering its previous model of defense industry cooperation with China. Joining efforts at this stage may be seen by the two countries as the only way to prevent the United States from gaining a decisive military and technological advantage.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, China, United States, Russia, military technology, strategic competition, Third Offset Strategy
    Date: 2017–02–28
  4. By: FAN, Gaoyue
    Abstract: Chinese defense analysts have widely divergent views on the rationale and intentions behind the US Third Offset Strategy. Some characterize it as a trap to induce China and Russia into an arms race or a hoax designed by the United States to cover its weaknesses. Others see it as a competitive strategy to seek technological superiority that will safeguard the security of the United States and its regional allies and partners. This brief presents a Chinese perspective on the strategy and its motivations, and offers some possible Chinese responses as China upgrades its defense technological capabilities.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, China, United States, strategic competition, Third Offset Strategy, military technology
    Date: 2017–02–28
  5. By: Ивантер В.В. (Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования)
    Date: 2017–02–16

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