nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2017‒01‒15
twelve papers chosen by

  2. Political elections and uncertainty -Are BRICS markets equally exposed to Trump's agenda? By Jamal Bouoiyour; Refk Selmi
  3. Regional distribution of bank institutions in Russia: Role of state and education By Anna Mishura; Svetlana Ageeva
  4. Testing Kuznets' Hypothesis for Russian Regions: Trends and Interpretations By James Alm; Ruslan A. Grigoriev; Marat V. Kramin; Timur V. Kramin
  5. Oil Price Shock and Effects on Stock Markets of Emerging Economies By Chatterjee, Susmita; Bagchi, Bhaskar; Dandapat, Dhruba Ranjan
  8. Understanding the Sources of High Current Account Fluctuations in 5 Developed Economies By Ibhagui, Oyakhilome
  10. Turkey's Role in Natural Gas - Becoming a Transit Country? By Berk, Istemi; Schulte, Simon
  11. Estonia in Global Value Chains By Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki; Mattila, Juri; Seppälä, Timo

  1. By: Sherzod Hamdamov
    Abstract: Uzbekistan, country which is situated in Central Asia, is characterised with huge amount of agricultural resources. It is a leading economy of exporting agricultural products to CIS countries, especially Russia and Kazakhstan. Government of Uzbekistan has been supporting development of entrepreneurship in the sphere of agriculture, one of the successful results of which is presence of specialized farms almost in each region of country. At present, the main task for specialized farms is to provide both domestic and foreign markets with qualified agricultural products. In the conditions of competition and free market relations, farms need to have and use appropriate strategies, especially marketing strategies for gaining good positions in domestic and foreign markets. This article explains how specialized farms to succeed on gaining competitive positions in markets through developing and implementing effective marketing strategies. Key words: marketing, marketing activity of farms, agricultural enterprises, specialized farms, product sales markets, market conquest. Policy
    Date: 2016–12
  2. By: Jamal Bouoiyour (CATT); Refk Selmi (CATT)
    Abstract: There certainly is little or no doubt that politicians, sometimes consciously and sometimes not, exert a significant impact on stock markets. The evolving volatility over the Republican Donald Trump's surprise victory in the US presidential election is a perfect example when politicians, through announced policies, send signals to financial markets. The present paper seeks to address whether BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) stock markets equally vulnerable to Trump's plans. For this purpose, two methods were adopted. The first presents an event-study methodology based on regression estimation of abnormal returns. The second is based on vote intentions by integrating data from social media (Twitter), search queries (Google Trends) and public opinion polls. Our results robustly reveal that although some markets emerged losers, others took the opposite route. China took the biggest hit with Brazil, while the damage was much more limited for India and South Africa. These adverse responses can be explained by the Trump's neo-mercantilist attitude revolving around tearing up trade deals, instituting tariffs, and labeling China a "currency manipulator". However, Russia looks to be benefiting due to Trump's sympathetic attitude towards Vladimir Putin and expectations about the scaling down of sanctions imposed on Russia over its role in the conflict in Ukraine.
    Date: 2017–01
  3. By: Anna Mishura; Svetlana Ageeva
    Abstract: The article presents results of research into territorial disparity of bank (branch) deployment for regions of Russia. It is suggested that there have been three periods of bank development in the country. The Siberian Federal District has been selected to illustrate each period and demonstrate real institutional changes of power distribution between the ?province? and the ?center? as well as the role of the state throughout the process. The dynamics of the number of regional banking institutions in recent years reflects falling concentration of banking business in all regions (with the exception of Moscow). However, despite the concentration of financial institutions in the capital there are notable regional financial centers. It has been attempted to identify factors for the territorial disparity. It turns out that beside regional population and income size significant factors include the status of the regional capital city and its educational potential.
    Keywords: Regional disparity; Capital city; Banking institutions
    JEL: R12 R51 G21
    Date: 2016–12
  4. By: James Alm (Department of Economics, Tulane University); Ruslan A. Grigoriev (Professor of Economics, Kazan Innovative University); Marat V. Kramin (Professor of Applied Mathematics, Kazan Innovative University); Timur V. Kramin (Professor of Economics, Kazan Innovative University)
    Abstract: The paper established a number of "stylized facts", one of which is a confirmation of S. Kuznets' hypothesis of the nonlinear dependence between the degree of inequality in income distribution and welfare economic systems on the example set of Russian regions for the period 2002-2012. It is shown that, for a given sample, the welfare and economic growth factors amplifies their influence on inequality in income distribution in the post-crisis period. Observed before the 2008 crisis, monotonous growth of income inequality in the process of raising the per capita GRP is slowing in the post-crisis period, and for the foreseeable future, in some regions, its direction can be reversed, while maintaining a trend of socio-economic development. Despite the persistence over time of a convex nature of S. Kuznets' curve for Russian regional data its parameters are changed during the reporting 2002-2012 period. The maximum point of the curve shifts to the left, its convexity increases. These facts indicate that the growth of income inequality Russian regions as a result of growth of per capita GRP is slowing. For some regions in the post-crisis period (after 2008), income inequality does not grow with the growth of per capita gross regional product, or it even reduces. This fact can be attributed to the implementation of the Russian federal socially oriented projects and programs in recent years. The results of the presented paper can be used for the implementation of regional economic policy in order to regulate the level of inequality in income distribution in the regions of Russia.
    Keywords: Inequality of income distribution, economic growth, the Gini coefficient, the competitiveness of regions, regression modeling, gross regional product.
    JEL: I3 P2 O4 R1
    Date: 2016–12
  5. By: Chatterjee, Susmita; Bagchi, Bhaskar; Dandapat, Dhruba Ranjan
    Abstract: The present study investigates the effect of sharp continuous falling crude oil prices on stock market indices of emerging economies like Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and South Korea and also the relationship between crude oil prices and stock indices of these countries. The period of the study spans from July 2009 to January 2016. Multivariate cointegration techniques along with vector error correction mechanism, impulse response functions and multivariate CCC-GARCH model have been employed in the study. The long-run relationship has been empirically established between the variables only in Brazil and Russia, but, no such relationship has been found in case of other emerging economies. Except South Africa, stock indices of the other emerging economies adjust to changes in crude oil prices to correct short-run disequilibrium although, with varied speed of adjustment. CCC-GARCH estimation reveals the existence of volatility spillovers between crude oil prices and stock indices and convergence have been achieved for all the emerging economies.
    Keywords: emerging economies, new oil price shock; stock indices
    JEL: F4 F6
    Date: 2016–12–29
  6. By: AzlarovaDilnoza
    Abstract: Fats and Oils industry of Uzbekistan is growing in result of attraction of foreign direct investments in this industry. High demand for products of this industry and in domestic market and in foreign market requires development of effective management system. The key element of such system is human resources, and CEO, heads of departments in companies producing fats, oils and related products should be familiar with contemporary concepts of HR management. Key words: fats and oils industry, human resources, HR management, dynamic environment Policy
    Date: 2016–12
  7. By: Shadiyeva Dildora
    Abstract: Innovations are considered as factor of economic growth not only of individual enterprises, but also a national economy as a whole. That is why countries have a great focus on financial supporting and promoting innovations. Insufficient support of innovations causes low return on scientific research and less economic effect from Research and Development (R&D). Therefore funding is indispensable condition to create new products by innovative ideas. The present study focuses on studying the features of innovative activity funding in the current global scenario, identifying the world leaders and trends in innovative activity funding. Uzbekistan’s experience in this area was selected for the empirical study. By analyzing the main source of funds and the factors which promote development of innovative activity was identified impact of some factors on change in scientific and technical output. Key words: innovations, innovative activity, R&D, sources of funding, Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D. Policy
    Date: 2016–09
  8. By: Ibhagui, Oyakhilome
    Abstract: The global economy has, in recent times, continued to face large and unprecedented external imbalances. Despite reductions recorded in aggregate current account (saving less investment) to global output ratio, the imbalances still remain. The main contributors to the imbalances have been the world’s developed economies. These developed economies have experienced fluctuating current account balances over the years and the fluctuation has contributed to a slow correction of the imbalances. This paper identifies 5 developed economies with the highest fluctuations in current account balances and analyses the sources of these fluctuations. The countries are Singapore, Latvia, Iceland, Norway and Estonia. Results obtained suggest that 1) temporary shocks account for most current account fluctuations, and the excess response to temporary shocks is as stable and pronounced as in previous studies; 2) permanent shocks drive current account fluctuations in Iceland and Latvia but not in Norway, Estonia, and Singapore; 3) Singapore demonstrates the most support for the two-good intertemporal model, since external supply and demand shocks account for its current account fluctuations
    Keywords: Current account fluctuations, two-good intertemporal model, VAR and impulse response, V5 Economies
    JEL: C1 F3 F4 F41
    Date: 2015–10–18
  9. By: Ismailov Dilshod Anvarjonovich
    Abstract: The given article highlights the expansion issues of investment attraction in remote provinces and its betterment in ratable branch. As well as the recommendations and scientific propositions on shaping the financial management strategy of investment activities in the remote provinces are given. There exist recommendations on financing the perspective forthcoming investment projects, too. Key words: Investment, investment financing, management of finance, investment-financing sources, management investment, financing mechanisms, financial planning. Policy
    Date: 2016–12
  10. By: Berk, Istemi (Dokuz Eylul University, Iszmir, Turkey); Schulte, Simon (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI))
    Abstract: This paper analyses the possible future role that Turkey can play in European natural gas markets. We employ a global gas market simulation model, COLUMBUS, to assess the outcomes of different scenarios concerning natural gas supply routes to Europe through Turkey up to 2030. The results imply simply that under current conditions, i.e., a more competitive environment in European gas markets leading to low gas prices, Turkey’s role would be of only minor importance. In accordance with various scenarios presented in this study, Turkey’s role is seen at its most important when European demand increases and Russia exerts power in the European markets.
    Keywords: COLUMBUS; European Gas Supply; Turkey; Scenario Analyses
    JEL: C68 L13 Q31
    Date: 2017–01–06
  11. By: Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki; Mattila, Juri; Seppälä, Timo
    Abstract: In this study, we analyse Estonia’s position in global value chains using World Input-Output Data and firm-level data. We find that 69% of Estonia’s total exports are intermediate goods and services, exceeding the EU average (65%). Two-thirds of Estonian imports are intermediates. Our findings suggest that Estonia is heavily involved in vertically and geographically fragmented production even though its most significant trading partners are its neighbouring countries. We also analyse the value chains of two significant companies operating in the Estonian economy along with their GDP contributions. According to our findings, the GDP contributions generated by the exports of these two companies vary significantly from one another. The euros generated from exports do not contribute equally to the national economy.
    Keywords: Global value chains, GVC, GDP, exports, gross domestic product, value added, Estonia, granular
    JEL: D22 F14 F6 F62 F68 L2
    Date: 2017–01–11
  12. By: Shakhnoza Ganisherovna Akramova
    Abstract: This article investigates the channels through which human capital development could stimulate economic development in case of demographic transition. The ways of the efficient use of the demographic situation for the effective functioning of the human capital have been proposed. Key words: human capital; economic growth; age structure; demographic trends; fertility rate; life expectancy. Policy
    Date: 2016–09

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