nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2016‒12‒04
ten papers chosen by

  1. The Impact of Central Bank’S Verbal Interventions on Stock Exchange Indices in a Resource Based Economy: The Evidence from Russia By Olga S. Kuznetsova; Sofiya R. Ulyanova
  2. Determinants of Employee Innovative Behavior: Do Foreign and Domestic Companies in Russia Differ? By A.S. Gogoleva; E.S. Balabanova; Azer G. Efendiev
  3. Capital Structure and Corporate Performance in Late Imperial Russia By Amanda Gregg; Steven Nafziger
  4. Ukraine; Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2014 Stand-By Arrangement By International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
  5. Pricing the Odious in Odious Debts By Collet, Stéphanie; Oosterlinck, Kim
  6. Russia’S Electoral Space: Change and Continuity in Post-Soviet Perspective By Rostislav Turovsky
  7. Collective Action and Representation in Autocracies: Evidence from Russia's Great Reforms By Paul C. Dower; Evgeny Finkel; Scott Gehlbach; Steven Nafziger
  8. Long-Run Consequences of Labor Coercion: Evidence from Russian Serfdom By Johannes C. Buggle; Steven Nafziger
  9. Ukraine; Second Review Under the Extended Fund Facility and Requests for Waivers of Non-Observance of Performance Criteria, Rephasing of Access and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine By International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
  10. Republic of Moldova; Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and an Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Moldova By International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

  1. By: Olga S. Kuznetsova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Sofiya R. Ulyanova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the intra-day impact of the Bank of Russia’s verbal interventions on the Russian stock exchange indices in 2014-2015. With this aim, we construct the communication index, which summarizes the verbal interventions of the Bank of Russia during this period. After that, we estimate GARCH model using intraday data on the returns of RTS and MICEX indices. We also take into account the price of futures contracts on BRENT as the Russian economy has a strong dependence on oil prices. We show that the verbal interventions of the Bank of Russia have a positive short-term impact on the RTS returns, but do not affect their volatility. This results contradict previous studies, which show that usually central bank’s communication has a strong effect on the volatility of indices, but does not affect their returns. We suggest that this contradiction arises from the fact that we consider an export orientation of the economy, which has not been examined in previous studies
    Keywords: the Bank of Russia, verbal interventions, GARCH-modeling, stock exchange indices, RTS index, MICEX index
    JEL: E32
    Date: 2016
  2. By: A.S. Gogoleva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); E.S. Balabanova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Azer G. Efendiev (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper investigates employees’ individual innovative behavior. Three main stages of innovative process – new ideas generation, their promotion and implementation – are examined. 623 Russian employees of domestic and foreign companies operating in Russia were surveyed. The results show high significance of individual determinants (status and self-assessment of professional competence), favorable organizational environment (managerial incentives) and types of decision-making for all three stages of innovative process. The authors’ main proposition that foreign companies demonstrate higher level of individual innovative activity was not confirmed but qualitative distinctions at all three stages of innovative process were revealed.
    Keywords: innovative process, employee innovative behavior, innovative organizational environment.
    JEL: M12 O18 O32
    Date: 2016
  3. By: Amanda Gregg (Middlebury College); Steven Nafziger (Williams College)
    Abstract: We investigate the financing of corporations in industrialization’s early stages. A new balance sheet database featuring all Imperial Russian corporations in 1914 suggests that Russian corporations exhibited considerable financial flexibility. We emphasize financing differences between two types of Russian corporations: share partnerships and A-corporations. Share partnerships issued greater dividends as a proportion of share capital or profits, were less likely to issue bonds, and had larger accounts payable. Financial strategies varied with age, size, and sector in a manner consistent with modern corporate finance theories. This optimistic assessment suggests that absence of low-cost incorporation impeded Russian industrial and economic development.
    Date: 2016–08
  4. By: International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
    Abstract: Ukraine requested a 24-month SDR 10.976 billion exceptional access Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) in April 2014 against the backdrop of large internal and external imbalances, considerable domestic political upheaval, and an emerging conflict in the East. Inconsistent macroeconomic policies in the preceding years had led to a potent combination of an overvalued pegged exchange rate, large and growing twin deficits, and a weak banking system by end-2013. Domestic political turmoil and conflict in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine added to these problems, creating an urgent need for financial assistance from the international community. The 2014 SBA (of about $17 billion) was Ukraine’s third since 2008.
    Keywords: Stand-by arrangements;Monetary policy;Banking sector;Fiscal policy;Energy sector;Fiscal reforms;Ex post assessments;Exceptional use of Fund resources;Economic indicators;Fund policies;Press releases;Ukraine;
    Date: 2016–10–03
  5. By: Collet, Stéphanie; Oosterlinck, Kim
    Abstract: This paper exploits a unique historical episode to quantify the impact of ethics on sovereign bond prices. In 1906 the Russian government floated a bond in Paris to cover the costs of its war against Japan but also to raise money to crush the political movements wishing to reform Russia's political system. Issued without parliamentary consent, this loan met with fierce opposition. Press campaigns in Great Britain, France and Germany denounced its odious character. Using an original database this paper shows that market participants required a substantial premium to hold the "unethical" odious bond. This premium was especially high when the bond was issued, and protests and campaigns were waged against it. The premium diminished once the press campaigns stopped. It remained nonetheless significant, suggesting that ethics have a lasting effect on investors' willingness to buy odious bonds.
    Keywords: Ethics; Financial history; Odious debt; Repudiation; Russia; Sovereign debt
    JEL: F34 G12 G15 N23
    Date: 2016–11
  6. By: Rostislav Turovsky (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper tests the methods of electoral analysis elaborated by the author previously and based on the concept of nationalization that is used to measure the spatial homogeneity of voting patterns. The study of nationalization scores leads to the conclusion about rather high degree of nationalization of the post-Soviet party system from its very beginning while short and small-scale upsurges of regionalization were coming along with anti-government protests of 1995-1995 and 2011. To deepen the analysis of the electoral space the author has analyzed the phenomenon of deviant and typical regions where ethnic cleavage has appeared to produce the main deviations. Finally, the analysis of dynamic nationalization brings about the better understanding of nationalization revealing the changing territorial patterns of voting for the same actors masked by the same overall national scores
    Keywords: nationalization of party systems, regionalization, electoral volatility, electoral geography
    JEL: D72
    Date: 2016
  7. By: Paul C. Dower (Florida International University); Evgeny Finkel (George Washington University); Scott Gehlbach (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Steven Nafziger (Williams College)
    Abstract: We explore the relationship between capacity for collective action and representation in autocracies with data from Imperial Russia. Our primary empirical exercise relates peasant representation in new institutions of local self-government to the frequency of peasant unrest in the decade prior to reform. To correct for measurement error in the unrest data and other sources of endogeneity, we exploit idiosyncratic variation in two determinants of peasant unrest: the historical incidence of serfdom and religious polarization. We find that peasants were granted less representation in districts with more frequent unrest in preceding years—a relationship consistent with the AcemogluRobinson model of political transitions and inconsistent with numerous other theories of institutional change. At the same time, we observe patterns of redistribution in subsequent years that are inconsistent with the commitment mechanism central to the Acemoglu-Robinson model. Building on these results, we discuss possible directions for future theoretical work.
    Date: 2016–10
  8. By: Johannes C. Buggle (University of Lausanne); Steven Nafziger (Williams College)
    Abstract: This paper examines the long-run consequences of Russian serfdom. We use novel data measuring the intensity of labor coercion at the district level in 1861. Our results show that a greater legacy of serfdom is associated with lower economic well-being today. We apply an IV strategy that exploits the transfer of serfs from monastic lands in 1764 to establish causality. Exploring mechanisms, we find a positive correlation between the earlier experience of serfdom and pre-Soviet urbanization and land inequality, with negative implications for human capital investment and agglomeration over the long-run.
    Keywords: Labor Coercion, Serfdom, Development, Russia, Persistence
    JEL: N33 N54 O10 O43
    Date: 2016–10
  9. By: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
    Abstract: The authorities have continued to make progress in implementing the program. Notwithstanding the delay in completing this review, mainly related to a difficult approval process of the 2016 budget and political tensions culminating in a change in government in April 2016, important policy measures have been taken since the last review. This includes a sizable fiscal adjustment; a successful completion of the debt operation with private bondholders; the increase in gas and heating tariffs to full cost recovery; and decisive steps to rehabilitate the banking system. However, progress in tackling corruption, privatizing state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and advancing pension reform has been slower than envisaged against significant political resistance.
    Keywords: Extended Fund Facility;Economic conditions;Fiscal policy;Energy sector;Fiscal reforms;Public enterprises;Banking sector;Monetary policy;Economic indicators;Letters of Intent;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Phasing of purchases;Ukraine;
    Date: 2016–10–03
  10. By: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
    Abstract: Since late 2014, Moldova’s economy has been hit by a number of domestic and external shocks. Chief among them is the exposure of extensive and wellorchestrated fraud in the banking system, resulting in the closure of three banks at a public cost of 10 percent of GDP. During the following period, confidence collapsed, external concessional financing largely froze, and international reserves fell by onethird, prompting significant tightening of monetary conditions. Domestic political turmoil, marked by three changes in government, constrained solutions and delayed collaboration with the international community on possible financial support.
    Date: 2016–11–09

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.