nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2016‒11‒13
seven papers chosen by

  1. The importance of institutional and organizational characteristics for the use of fixed-term and agency work contracts in Russia By Smirnych, L. I.; Wörgötter, Andreas
  2. Labour Shortages Driving Economic Growth? By Vasily Astrov; Serkan Çiçek; Rumen Dobrinsky; Vladimir Gligorov; Doris Hanzl-Weiss; Peter Havlik; Mario Holzner; Gabor Hunya; Michael Landesmann; Sebastian Leitner; Isilda Mara; Olga Pindyuk; Leon Podkaminer; Oliver Reiter; Sandor Richter; Robert Stehrer; Hermine Vidovic
  3. Do Remittances Cause Dutch Disease in Resource Poor Countries of Central Asia? By Eromenko, Igor
  4. The Nexus between Discretionary Expenditures and Corruption: Industry Level Perspectives from BRIC and Turkey By Ozlem KUTLU FURTUNA
  5. An Updated Assessment of Oil Market Disruption Risks By Beccue, Phillip; Huntington, Hillard
  6. The Limits of the Judiciary within the Eurasian Integration Process By Maksim Karliuk
  7. The pass-through to consumer prices in CIS economies: The role of exchange rates, commodities and other common factors By Comunale, Mariarosaria; Simola, Heli

  1. By: Smirnych, L. I.; Wörgötter, Andreas
    Abstract: Non-renewable fixed-term and agency work contracts are becoming more used instead of the traditional Russian model of open-ended employment. The authors examine the influence of institutional and organizational factors on the use of two forms of non-standard work contracts in Russia with data from a Survey covering 3313 enterprises for the years 2009 to 2011. Probit and Tobit regressions are used to test several hypotheses about the use of non-standard work contracts derived from the literature. The results indicate that state-owned and unionized enterprises are more likely to use fixed-term contracts; and a high level of perceived dismissal protection for permanent workers is positively associated with fixed-term contracts use. The incidence and intensity of fixed-term and agency work contracts are lower at enterprises with flexible wages. A significant impact of organizational factors is confirmed only for fixed-term contracts. Enterprises use less fixed-term contracts, if they have workers with tenure from 5 to 10 years and high job complexity.
    Keywords: fixed-term contracts,agency work,non-standard employment,labor flexibility,Russia
    JEL: J41 J21 J63 J23
    Date: 2016
  2. By: Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Serkan Çiçek (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vladimir Gligorov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Michael Landesmann (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Oliver Reiter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Summary In most of the countries from Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE), the current virtuous circle of rising consumption and incomes is expected to continue at least in the near term, accompanied by solid GDP growth to the tune of some 3% p.a. Ongoing labour-market improvements and rising wages will continue to be the main growth driver throughout the region; they will be complemented by a recovery in fixed investments as new EU funds become available. The economies of Russia, other CIS countries (except Belarus) and the Ukraine are expected to bottom out, as the negative shocks of the past two years have already been largely absorbed. Turkey is heading for a ‘soft landing’. These are the main findings of the newly released medium-term macroeconomic forecast by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw). Despite the sluggish external environment, economic growth remains fairly strong in the majority of CESEE countries; the economic dynamics in almost half of those countries have intensified over the current year compared to 2015. Growth in the EU Member States from Central and Eastern Europe (EU-CEE) has declined only modestly over the current year, mostly on account of temporary investment weaknesses. It remains 1.5 pp higher on average than in the euro area. In Turkey, economic dynamics were also very solid up until mid-2016, albeit accompanied by signs of ‘overheating’, while the CIS countries are experiencing a ‘bottoming out’. The main driver of growth throughout the CESEE region continues to be private consumption, underpinned by sharply rising wages and incomes as well as decreasing unemployment. The tightening of labour markets and the rising labour shortages are partly a consequence of sizeable outward migration over the past years, which has had a cumulative negative effect on labour supply. A number of countries have also introduced higher minimum wages, sometimes as part of a more general fiscal relaxation package. Inflationary pressures in most CESEE countries – with the exception of the CIS countries and Turkey – are almost non-existent, as solid wage growth has been largely offset by marked gains in labour productivity and a profit squeeze. The expansion of fixed investments, which were an important pillar of GDP growth in 2015, has largely run out of steam this year. In the EU-CEE region, the main reason for this lies in a temporary drop in EU transfers that, in previous years, used to be an important source of investments. EU funds disbursed under the previous 2007-2013 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) were absorbed in 2015 at the latest, whereas attracting new funds under the recently adopted 2014-2020 MFF will take time. At the same time, disregarding the ‘EU transfers effect’, the underlying dynamics of investments remain strong. The export dynamics in many CESEE countries have been better than those of imports, resulting in a positive contribution of net exports to GDP growth. In most EU-CEE countries and Serbia, this is largely a reflection of their ever-strengthening export base and further gains in competitiveness. However, in the CIS countries it is entirely due to the weakness of domestic demand which is still depressed following strong currency depreciations over the past two years. Credit expansion in the CESEE region remains rather modest no country, with the possible exception of Slovakia, is currently experiencing a credit boom. Other factors tend to be more important determinants of the demand for loans than interest rates, which in many CESEE countries are rather low. Going forward, this reduces the risk of ‘boom-and-bust’ developments that have characterised the trajectories of a number of CESEE countries in the run-up to and during the global financial crisis. Domestic demand in many CESEE economies is supported by fiscal policy relaxation, particularly in Romania and Ukraine. One reason for this may have been a decline in government borrowing costs. Furthermore, the general disenchantment with the practical results of ‘expansionary austerity’ pursued in the past has played a role as well. At the same time, in most Western Balkan countries and in the CIS, the fiscal stance tends to be either neutral or restrictive – and in the case of the CIS countries it is essentially pro-cyclical. The impact of the forthcoming Brexit on CESEE economies should be contained by those countries’ relatively low trade exposure to the UK economy. In the EU-CEE region, some 1.6% of GDP is accounted for by final demand from the UK, and that share is even lower in other CESEE countries. At the same time, from 2019 onwards the EU-CEE region potentially faces the prospects of much lower (by up to 20%) EU transfers once the UK – the second largest net contributor country to the EU budget after Germany – leaves the bloc. The migration flows from the EU-CEE region to the UK could fall by nearly half compared to the past two years even without any changes to the migration regime, as the UK will become less of a magnet for migrants.
    Keywords: CESEE, economic forecast, Europe, Central and East Europe, Southeast Europe, Western Balkans, new EU Member States, CIS, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Turkey, growth divergence, external risks, macroeconomic imbalances, consumption-led growth, unemployment, inflation, competitiveness, public debt, private debt, current account
    JEL: C33 C50 E20 E29 F34 G01 G18 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52
    Date: 2016–11
  3. By: Eromenko, Igor
    Abstract: Dutch disease or resource curse is an adverse effect of high dependence on exports of natural resources, such as oil and gas, or other inflows, such as remittances or foreign aid. Dutch disease is known to lead to appreciation of the real exchange rate, decline in tradable sectors (mostly industry and agriculture) and surge in non-tradable sectors (services). This means unfavourable development of an economy where retail trade or construction would grow, but production sectors would be atrophied. Such economies become vulnerable and may suffer if inflow of currency from natural resources or remittances dries out. This study tests whether large inflow of foreign currency coming to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan from labour migrants has caused Dutch disease as described by Corden (1984) and Corden and Neary (1982): appreciation of the real exchange rate, decline in tradable sectors and surge in non-tradable sectors. Furthermore, the paper takes one step further and looks at this phenomenon from the point of view of importing Dutch disease from resource-rich countries to resource-poor countries. Results show that symptoms of Dutch disease are present in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. There is an evidence of deindustrialisation, higher growth rates and larger share of service sector in GDP. In addition, high oil prices showed strong appreciation effect on local currencies of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan indicating the transfer of Dutch disease from resource-rich Russia.
    Keywords: Dutch disease, labour remittances, migration, natural resources, exchange rate
    JEL: F22 F24 F31
    Date: 2016–01
  4. By: Ozlem KUTLU FURTUNA (Yildiz Technical University)
    Abstract: The conflict of interest between the managers and owners within opportunistic behaviours’ of managers has been a significant area of finance research. Uncontrolled moral hazard in management may result some typical forms of behaviours like excessive perquisite consumption, non-optimal investment decision, inefficient use of assets and discretionary expenditures. Their effects have a potential to destruct firm’s financial performance and the shareholder’s wealth. Several studies revealed the measurement of this managerial moral hazard behaviour by using accounting-based performance ratios. In this study, firms’ discretionary expenditures have been used as a proxy for managerial behaviour related to moral hazard. This problem can be more severe as a result of the bribery implications of firms and corruption issues. Taking all this account, this paper attempts to investigate the nexus between firms’ discretionary expenditures and corruption giving industry level perspectives from emerging markets and identifies the sectors that are most affected.The dataset constitutes 466 non-financial firms operating in four large emerging countries BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and Turkey covering the 10 year time span from 2005-2014. Results reveal that all industries in the sample countries with a high control of corruption tend to face less moral hazard related behaviour taking into account industrial differences. However, considering industrial breakdown reveal interesting findings. For some industries an upward sloping relationship has been seen between the control of corruption and the proxy for moral hazard related behavior, which indicates that the higher the level of corruption control, the higher moral hazard.
    Keywords: moral hazard, discretionary expenditures, corruption, emerging market, BRIC, Turkey
  5. By: Beccue, Phillip; Huntington, Hillard
    Abstract: The probability of the size and duration of another oil disruption is critical to estimating the value of any policies for reducing the economic damages from a sudden oil supply disruption. The Energy Modeling Forum at Stanford University developed a risk assessment framework and evaluated the likelihood of one or more foreign oil disruptions over the next ten years. The risk assessment was conducted through a series of two workshops attended by leading geopolitical, military and oil-market experts who provided their expertise on the probability of different events occurring, and their corresponding link to major disruptions in key oil market regions. The study evaluated 5 primary regions of production: Saudi Arabia, Other Persian Gulf, Africa, Latin America, and Russian / Caspian States. The final results of the risk assessment convey a range of insights across the three dimensions of magnitude, likelihood, and length of a disruption. These conclusions are net of offsets (e.g., OPEC spare capacity), with the notable exception that the SPR is not included as a source of offsets. At least once during the 10-year time frame (2016-2025), the probability of a net (of offsets) disruption of 2 MMBD (million barrels per day) or more lasting at least 1 month is approximately 80%.
    Keywords: Oil supply disruptions; risk assessment
    JEL: Q34 Q41
    Date: 2016
  6. By: Maksim Karliuk (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) has its own judicial body tasked with ensuring the uniform application of EAEU law by member states and institutions. The EAEU Court has a number of important powers; however, it is noteworthy, that such crucial ones as the preliminary ruling procedure and the ability to review actions of member states upon request of the EAEU regulatory body are missing. This paper reviews the missing powers in a search for the reasons behind their removal, and the ensuing ramifications. It also uncovers other limitations of the Eurasian judiciary and its strained relationships with national judiciaries. It is argued, that the EAEU Court will struggle to fulfil its mission without solutions compensating its limited powers
    Keywords: Eurasian integration, Eurasian Economic Union, Eurasian judiciary, Court of the Eurasian Economic Union, preliminary ruling, infringements.
    JEL: K33
    Date: 2016
  7. By: Comunale, Mariarosaria; Simola, Heli
    Abstract: ​This empirical study considers the pass-through of key nominal exchange rates and commodity prices to consumer prices in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), taking into account the effect of idiosyncratic and common factors influencing prices. In order to do that, given the relatively short window of available quarterly observations (1999–2014), we choose heterogeneous panel frameworks and control for cross-sectional dependence. The exchange rate pass-through is found to be relatively high and rapid for CIS countries in the case of the nominal effective exchange rate, but not significant for the bilateral rate with the US dollar. We also show that global factors in combination with financial gaps and commodity prices are important. In the case of large rate swings, the exchange rate pass-through of the bilateral rate with the US dollar becomes significant and similar to that of the nominal effective exchange rate.
    Keywords: Commonwealth of Independent States, exchange rate pass-through, commodity prices, dynamic panel data, inflation, exchange rates, cross-sectional dependence, financial cycle
    JEL: C38 E31 F31
    Date: 2016–11–04

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