nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2016‒10‒16
ten papers chosen by

  1. Exchange rate pass-through and cross-country spillovers: Some evidence from Ukraine and Russia By Faryna, Oleksandr
  2. The Concept of ‘Friendship’ in Late 18th – Early 19th Century Russia: Social Cohesion Reconsidered By Maiia Lavrinovich
  3. Drivers of Growth in Russia By Markus Brueckner; Birgit Hansl
  4. The role of governing boards in developing HEIs: the case of Kazakhstan By Dina Gungor; Renata Apergenova
  5. Россия Украина: возможности и риски By Drobot, Elena
  6. Inter-regional disparities in the budget revenues per capita and their determinants: Russian case study By Marina Malkina
  7. Ekonomia versus środowisko - konkurencyjność czy komplementarność By Anonymous; Wigier, Marek; Wieliczko, Barbara
  8. Effects of Gold Reserve Policy of Major Central Banks on Gold Prices Changes By Oguzhan Ozcelebi; Metin Duyar
  9. The Loss of Production Work: Evidence from Quasi-Experimental Identification of Labour Demand Functions By Elias Einiö
  10. Confidence Sets for the Break Date in Cointegrating Regressions By KUROZUMI, Eiji; SKROBOTOV, Anton

  1. By: Faryna, Oleksandr
    Abstract: ​This paper studies exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Ukraine and Russia considering cross-country linkage and spillover effects. We relax the assumption of “isolated islands” and employ a bilateral panel VAR (BPVAR) approach to estimate a pass-through effect from the ruble to hryvnia exchange rate (UAH/RUB) movements, taking into account cross-unit hetero-geneities as well as dynamic and static interdependencies. We then compare BPVAR estimates with those from individual VAR models and find that, while results for Russia do not change significantly, spillover effects are identified for Ukraine. In particular, ruble depreciation (e.g. hryvnia appreciation) results in increasing Ukrainian prices instead of declining as suggested by individual VAR analysis. We also estimate alternative BPVAR including hryvnia and ruble ex-change rates with respect to the US dollar and find that prices in Ukraine respond to changes in USD/RUB to a larger extent than to UAH/USD.
    Keywords: exchange rate pass-through, Ukraine, Russia, spillovers, bilateral panel VAR
    JEL: E31 E52 E58
    Date: 2016–10–06
  2. By: Maiia Lavrinovich (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper examines social differences within the concept of ‘friendship’ in late 18th – early 19th century Russia in order to ‘reassemble’ friendship as a social phenomenon in this period. Ubiquitously, the voluminous correspondence of the Russian aristocracy is interpreted as “friendly” disregarding any social dimension and ignoring the social station of the correspondents. The 18th century was a critical period in Russia being an age of radical modernization. New social and cultural models were appropriated and, as a result of westernization, the Latin tradition was assimilated too. In early modern Europe, the concept of ‘friendship’ was applied to allegedly equal relationships, as the words cliens, patronus, clientela were not in use any more, but clients were described as amici, or friends by their patrons. The paper analyzes the correspondence of several Russian aristocrats with their clients – social inferiors. The grandees refer to these relations as ‘friendly’ and call them friendship or amitie (bien sincere or parfait) emphasizing their value for them. From the letters of their correspondents, it comes to light that the social inferiors tended to be wary and not to use these notions assessing their relationships, thus remaining in the conceptual framework of the patron-client relationships. Under the impact of the ‘emotional turn’ of early sentimentalism, the concept of friendship, like that of social cohesion, was used by the grandees as a means to reinterpret the relationships of dominance in the patron-client relations as voluntary and predicated on selfless devotion whereas their clients preferred to avoid sensitivity still resorting to more traditional and apprehensible flattery and obsequiousness
    Keywords: Russia, 18th century, friendship, correspondence, Alexander Vorontsov, Nikolai Sheremetev, Alexei Malinovskii, social hierarchy, emotional community
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2016
  3. By: Markus Brueckner; Birgit Hansl
    Abstract: Between the end of the 1990s and the first decade of the 2000s Russia experienced significant growth in GDP per capita that was driven by transitional convergence, structural reforms, and improvements in the terms of trade. Reforms to the structure of the economy boosted growth by over 2 percentage points per annum with improvements in telecommunication infrastructure, financial development, and a reduction in the GDP share of government consumption being the most important structural reforms. The paper discusses Russia's growth performance relative to comparator countries: countries in the European and Central Asia regions, advanced natural resource exporting countries and the BRICS countries. Economic growth was significantly lifted in advanced natural resource exporting countries due to the international commodity price boom, for example, in Russia improvements in the terms of trade lifted growth by over 1 percentage point per annum. In the group of advanced natural resource exporting countries and BRICS countries, Russia is at the forefront in terms of growth benefits arising from structural reforms.
    Date: 2016–07
  4. By: Dina Gungor (Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Education); Renata Apergenova (Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Education)
    Abstract: Kazakhstan, located in the heart of Asia between Russia and China, has a centuries-long history and rich culture. In 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed a new independent state appeared on the map. Nowadays, Kazakhstan is a young and fast-growing country. Having completed two decades of the post-Soviet period and responding to the challenges of the market in terms of globalization, Kazakhstan moves to a new stage of social and economic development and pays a special attention to education market. Institutional autonomy and shared governance system of higher education institutions are the mechanisms that Kazakhstan is implementing to enhance the development of higher education. The proposed paper explores the role of Boards of Trustees and Boards of Overseers in Kazakhstani higher education institutions as elements of shared governance. These governing boards are a new phenomenon in Kazakhstani university governance system in the post-soviet era. In most countries governing boards were created historically. For example, in the USA the people (Trustees) gathered as a charity group who decided to create an institution. In other words, the Boards of Trustees were a base of establishing the University. In comparison with the USA approach, Kazakhstani Boards of Trustees or Overseers were established artificially in the mid of 2000 and later when the universities took the initials steps toward institutional autonomy assisted in enhancing shared governance system. Newly created Boards had to be developed at the point of two systems: the old one that is more centralized and the new one that differs from the previous one aiming at autonomous streaming. Establishing new Boards has caused a lot of challenges. Firstly, the system required additional policy changes to accept the innovation and it had to be aligned accordingly. Secondly, the people in academia needed to be ready for the system. People mindset and cultural peculiarities can be a strong factor that may resist the change or set back the clock. The role of governing boards of Kazakhstani higher education institutions differs from the systems the concept was borrowed from. However, the tailored version of the Boards in Kazakhstan serves as a considerable asset to higher education institutions, regardless the challenges of implementation.
    Keywords: Kazakhstan, higher education, governing boards, shared governance, autonomy
    JEL: I28 I23 I29
  5. By: Drobot, Elena
    Abstract: The article discusses the features of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the threats and risks of the two countries. Particular attention is paid to the history of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The author analyzes the social and economic development of Russia and Ukraine from 2012 to 2016. A separate section is devoted to the study of Russian and Ukrainian foreign trade relations. SWOT-analysis of problems and prospects of development of relations between Ukraine and Russia is carried out in the last part of the work.
    Keywords: conflict, risk, opportunities, threats, economic development, foreign trade
    JEL: F4 F51
    Date: 2016–10–06
  6. By: Marina Malkina (Lobachevsky State University of Nizhni Novgorod)
    Abstract: The aim of the research is evaluation of inter-regional disparities in budget revenues per capita and assessment of the factors influenced them in statics and dynamics, based on data of Russian Federation regions in 2004-2014. We proposed a four-factor multiplicative model of the formation of budget revenues per capita which describes the transition from GDP per capita to the collected taxes per capita, to the regionally-assigned tax revenues per capita after tax sharing between levels of the budget system and to the budget revenues per capita after intergovernmental transfers and budget loans. To assess the level of inter-regional differences at all these stages we employed the population-weighted Theil-Bernoulli index, which is the measure of entropy sensitive to the bottom-part distribution. By means of this index decomposition, first proposed by Duro J.A. and Esteban J., and its application to our multiplicative model, we assessed the impact of four main factors and three intersect factors on inequality in regions budgetary provision, both in panel data and in time series.
    Keywords: budget revenues per capita, inter-regional inequality, Theil-Bernoulli index, decomposition, convergence, divergence
    JEL: H61 H71 R12
  7. By: Anonymous; Wigier, Marek; Wieliczko, Barbara
    Abstract: Sovereignty, Food Security and Sustainable Development: Environmental and Economic Challenges. Environmental consulting as a factor of agricultural development in Serbia. The CAP 2004-2013 direct payment scheme’s impact on sustainability of agriculture in Lithuania. Economic and social preconditions of development in the Czech rural areas: acceleration of global influence and local changes. Impact of economics and agriculture over the environmental protection in Bulgaria. An assessment of the impacts of reducing ammonia emissions from livestock farming by covering existing manure storage facilities in Hungary. Animal and vegetable waste development in agriculture, food processing and households of the European Union. Resilience of Romanian agriculture – an overview. Priorities of sustainable development of agriculture and rural areas within the region of eastern Serbia. Expected changes of farmers innovation activity in 2014-2020. Investment attractiveness of bioeconomy: case of Ukraine. Competitiveness and comparative advantages of Ukraine’s agriculture sector in trade with the European Union. Ukrainian agricultural products competitiveness on European market in time of financial challenges.
    Keywords: sovereignty, food security, sustainable development, environmental, economic challenges, agricultural development, direct payment, sustainability of agriculture, economic preconditions, social preconditions, rural areas, ammonia emissions, livestock farming, food processing, European Union, Romanian agriculture, sustainable development, farmers innovation activity, investment attractiveness, bioeconomy, competitiveness, agriculture sector, trade, agricultural products, European market, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis,
    Date: 2016
  8. By: Oguzhan Ozcelebi (Istanbul University); Metin Duyar (Nevsehir Hacı Bektas Veli University)
    Abstract: Central banks which are responsible for minting and monetary policy implementations are the institutions carry out sensitive policies for the healthy functioning of the economy. Policies implemented by central banks and its existing institutional structures cannot be dissociated from the political and social development of the country they live in, and the whole of economic policy. In recent years, with increasing pace of globalization, the mobility of international financial markets increased and this effect has extended the decisions of the central bank from national markets to international markets. In this study, we studied the possible impacts of changes in the share of gold in central banks’ reserves on gold prices proving empirical evidence from the USA, the Euro area, China and Russia. According to Causality and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition analysis deriving from VEC model, reserve polices of central banks of these countries has considerable effects on variations in gold price in the long-term. Empirical findings reveal the importance of the size of balance sheet of central banks, while it is also stressed that growth potential of economies and investment opportunities are crucial issues in terms storing reserves in terms of gold.
    Keywords: Dynamics of Gold Prices, Central Banks, the USA, the Euro area, China and Russia
    JEL: E44 E58 F30
  9. By: Elias Einiö
    Abstract: This paper examines changes in the structure of labour demand in plant-level panel data. I exploit variation in wages across local labour markets induced by the collapse of Finland's Soviet-dependent industry in the early 1990s to identify a labour demand model for plants producing for non-Soviet markets, which were not directly affected by the Soviet shock. I find a labour demand shift against workers in production occupations which accelerates in the 2000s, when industry patterns begin to diverge. Industry heterogeneity suggests that variation in industry structure may partly explain the differential development of wages and employment across countries.
    Keywords: labour demand function, occupation, offshoring, manufacturing, panel data, production work, technical change
    JEL: F16 J23 J24 O33
    Date: 2016–10
  10. By: KUROZUMI, Eiji; SKROBOTOV, Anton
    Abstract: In this paper, we propose constructing confidence sets for a break date in cointegrating regressions by inverting a test for the break location, which is obtained by maximizing the weighted average of power. It is found that the limiting distribution of the test depends on the number of I(1) regressors whose coefficients sustain structural change and the number of I(1) regressors whose coefficients are fixed throughout the sample. By Monte Carlo simulations, we then show that compared with a confidence interval developed by using the existing method based on the limiting distribution of the break point estimator under the assumption of the shrinking shift, the confidence set proposed in the present paper has a more accurate coverage rate, while the length of the confidence set is comparable. By using the method developed in this paper, we then investigate the cointegrating regressions of Russian macroeconomic variables with oil prices with a break.
    Keywords: Confidence interval, structural change, cointegration, Russian economy, oil price
    JEL: C12 C21
    Date: 2016–09

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