nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2016‒10‒02
nineteen papers chosen by

  2. Refugee Crisis and Divergences in Europe: The Russian Connection By Hasan Selçuk Türkmen
  3. Russian Federation: Financial Sector Assessment Program; Technical Note-Stress Testing By International Monetary Fund.
  4. The Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road Economic Belt: the impact of the Sino-Russian geopolitical strategies in the Eurasia region By Fabio Indeo
  5. One belt one road initiative in Central Asia: implications for competitiveness of Russian economy By M. Královičová; M. Žatko
  6. Regional Convergence in the Russian Federation - Spatial and Temporal Dynamics By Jens K. Perret
  7. Eurasian Economic Union: Russia’s New Foreign Policy in the South Caucasus By Samir Balakishi
  8. Russian Federation: Financial Sector Assessment Program; Technical Note-Macroprudential Policy By International Monetary Fund.
  9. Migrants’ location choice: the role of migration experience By Chernina, Eugenia M.
  10. Foreign agents? Natural resources & the political economy of civil society By Breyel, Corinna; Grigoriadis, Theocharis
  11. Regional Practice of Regulatory Impact Assessment By Vladimir D. Churakov
  12. Russian Federation: Financial Sector Assessment Program; Technical Note-Bank Resolution and Crisis Management Framework By International Monetary Fund.
  13. Russian Federation: Financial Sector Assessment Program; Technical Note-Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism By International Monetary Fund.
  14. Russian Federation: Financial Assessment Program; Detailed Assessment of Implementation: IOSCO Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation By International Monetary Fund.
  15. From Global Economic Crisis to Armed Crisis: Changing Regional Inequalities in Ukraine By KARÁCSONYI, DÁVID; KOSTYANTYN, MEZENTSEV; PIDGRUSNYI, GRYGORII; DÖVÉNYI, ZOLTÁN
  16. France: A Late-Comer to Government-Nonprofit Partnership By Edith Archambault
  17. Republic of Belarus; Financial System Stability Assessment By International Monetary Fund.
  18. Republic of Belarus; Staff Report for the 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Belarus By International Monetary Fund.
  19. Progress in diversification of the economy in Kazakhstan By Alibek Konkakov; Gulaikhan Kubayeva

  1. By: Wladimir Andreff (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The present chapter first reminds in which circumstances Russian companies grew multinational and then started booming, and how they were muddling through the financial crisis that burst out in 2008; in this respect, they do not compare too bad with MNCs from other transition countries. The geographical and industrial specificities of their expansion abroad are pointed out as well as the major determinants of their outward foreign direst investment (OFDI). In the past decade, their strategies have evolved from total opacity to more transparency and, in some cases have matured enough to get closer to genuine global strategies while their relationships with the Russian government have strengthened. Thus Russian MNCs make up for major pillars of state capitalism in Russia. A comparative assessment with Chinese MNCs shows deeper similarities than differences in spite of the first mover advantage that has benefited to OFDI from China over OFDI from other transition economies, of which Russia.
    Keywords: outward foreign direct investment, multinational companies, BRICs, Russia, China
    Date: 2015–12
  2. By: Hasan Selçuk Türkmen (PhD Student, Area Studies, Middle East Technical University (METU), Ankara)
    Abstract: This paper aims to provide an analysis of anti-refugee policies in Europe with a focus on Russian connection in this regard. Since the summer of 2015, refugees from Syria began to flow in very large numbers towards Europe. Concurrently, Russia began to develop a strictly anti-European discourse with reference to the refugee crisis. Hardline policies against refugees in Europe are prominently defended by Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban, who in his recent visit to Moscow reassured his support to the Russian discourse. Either with or without an ostensible motif of supporting the Russian discourse, Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi, Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras, and Polish prime minister Beata Szydło have been occasionally making remarks that harshly criticize refugee policies of the European Union. Divergent attitudes in Europe with regard to the refugee crisis necessarily coincides with the issues in Russian-European relations. Russian involvement, all in all, adds a new aspect to the refugee crisis, making its implications larger and more intricate. This paper focuses on this problematique and elaborates on it through discourse analysis of the statements of both Russian and European policymakers.
    Date: 2016–08
  3. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: This note presents the methodology and results of stress tests of the financial sector carried out as part of the 2016 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) for the Russian Federation. 1 To provide a comprehensive assessment of the banking system, the stress testing exercise comprised several different tests: a top-down stress test performed by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), a bottom-up stress test performed by banks, a separate top-down exercise that included asset quality adjustments performed by staff, single-factor tests performed by CBR, and liquidity tests performed by CBR.
    Date: 2016–09–22
  4. By: Fabio Indeo (Center for Energy Governance and Security, EGS Korea, Hanyang University, Seoul, South Korea)
    Abstract: In the last years, Russia and China are engaged to implement two geopolitical strategies which involves the Eurasia region, with the aim to develop the economic cooperation between East and West by means of trade and energy routes crossing Central Asia. At present, the implementation of the Eurasian Economic Union represents one of the most influent attempt to promote cooperation in the region, potentially including the creation of a supranational framework in order to upgrade the cooperation also in the political dimension (starting from the coordination of the respective national foreign policies), even if this option is strongly feared by Central Asian countries. At the same time the Chinese strategy of the Silk Road Economic Belt is an attractive project involving all Central Asian countries in a profitable energy and economic network, following the Chinese huge investments aimed to boost infrastructures and to develop national economies. Since 1991 post soviet Central Asian republics have had a different approach towards initiatives and projects of regional cooperation in the economic, political and security fields: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have always supported and participated in regional cooperation initiatives, while Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan appear reluctant to be involved. It is evident that the implementation of these two projects - which apparently seems in competition but they could potentially merge - will have interesting repercussions on the economic relations with the EU, widening the opportunities for a lucrative East-West business, opening new trade routes and consolidating the interdependence between Eurasia region and the EU member states. Furthermore, these two geopolitical strategies will influence the political and economic evolution of Central Asian countries as well as their foreign policies.
    Date: 2016–08
  5. By: M. Královičová (University of Economics in Bratislava, Slovakia); M. Žatko (University of Economics in Bratislava, Slovakia)
    Abstract: At the end of 2013, the Chinese government announced its intention to create the new strategic initiative called “One Belt One Road“, which includes a significant amount of countries from the Asia, the Middle East, the Africa and the Europe, and aims at the deepening of economic and security cooperation among participating countries. Furthermore, it covers the cooperation in the infrastructure. The initiative is now gaining its real shape, with the negotiations between potential participants being held between their highest political representatives. The total number of participating countries in not yet known, however, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Thailand, Hungary, Spain and Russia are among many other countries, which have already confirmed their participation in the initiative. If successfully carried out, the project has a huge potential to influence international business flows, not only in Asia but also within the global economy. Numerous projects that are already well under way include China's most important trading partners, namely Central Asian countries and Russia. Especially in case of Russia that is currently facing serious economic problems, it is quite uncertain whether this initiative would have positive or negative impact on its own competitiveness. While planned logistic platforms and transport corridors built in Central Asia could possibly lead to increase of mutual trade, construction of energy infrastructure projects in the same area could possibly harm Russian economy. The aim of this paper is to critically assess consequences of currently implemented projects on the Russian economy, and to look at perspectives of their further development.
    Keywords: China, competitiveness, Russia, Trade Complementarity Index, Central Asia
    JEL: F63 F42 F53 F21
    Date: 2016–08
  6. By: Jens K. Perret (European Institute for International Economic Relations at the University of Wuppertal)
    Abstract: Set in the context of the neoclassical growth model this study revisits the discussion of economic convergence in the context of the Russian Federation. Compared to previous similar studies, here a larger more comprehensive data set is implemented (1994-2013) allowing in particular to check for differences in convergence during different time periods. Using a panel approach more reliable results are achieved which point to absolute convergence occurring across the regions of the Russian Federation. The stability of these results is strengthened by estimating Kernel density to test for the presence of potential groups of regions with different steady states, on the one hand, and Markov transition matrices to test for the temporal stability of the regions on the other. Finally, a quantile regression approach is used to assure overall stability of the convergence speed. All results show that Russia reports absolute convergence up to Vladimir Putin's the second term as president and occurring again during his third term in office and conditional convergence in all time periods. All results remain stable even when including spatial effects or when testing for temporal stability. Quantile regression analysis also reports a more or less stable speed of convergence across the whole time horizon which is significantly higher than comparable results for the US or the regions of the European Union.
    Keywords: Russian Federation, USA, Innovation System, Knowledge Production Function, Knowledge Generation, Quantile Regression, Regional Economics
    JEL: C21 P25 O47 R11
    Date: 2016–09
  7. By: Samir Balakishi (School of Sociology, Politics and International Studies (SPAIS), University of Bristol)
    Abstract: Russian President Putin is seeking political and especially economic alliances to reduce and counterbalance the influence of the European Union and the United States in the post-Soviet space. He is therefore determined to cement Moscow’s hegemonic status in the near abroad, particularly in the South Caucasus. In order to achieve that strategic purpose, he has created the Eurasian Economic Union, as an alternative to the EU, since the EEU is under Russia’s domination. As a result of this initiative, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan signed an agreement to create the EEU in 2011. Then, on 29 May 2014, they assembled again in Moscow and signed a new treaty to form the EEU. This agreement became fully operational on 1 January 2015. Moscow has been pressurising Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan, as well as other CIS members, to join the EEU. Russia’s main interests in the South Caucasus are to control the region strategically and to inhibit or dominate the export of oil and gas from the Caspian Sea basin to the West along the Transcaucasian energy corridor to counteract the increase in recent years in relations between the South Caucasus countries and the West. Therefore, this new alliance is progressively playing an important role in Russian foreign economic policy towards Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. Whilst Armenia – which has been extremely dependent economically on Russia – joined the EEU, Azerbaijan declined to do so once in the past. In Georgia, especially during Saakashvili’s period since he was a keen proponent of NATO enlargement and EU membership, the EEU has declined in popularity. Moreover, joining the EEU would undermine economic independence and prosperity in the South Caucasian countries and could also prevent the West from having access to the region.
    Keywords: Eurasian Economic Union; Hegemonic Stability Theory; Armenia; Azerbaijan; Georgia; Energy.
    Date: 2016–08
  8. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: Financial stability oversight responsibilities are currently shared between the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) and a high-level inter-agency National Council on Ensuring Financial Stability (FSC). Given its role as the single financial regulator and supervisor since September 2013, CBR has naturally become a macroprudential authority. Following the creation of the Financial Stability Department in March 2011, CBR established an internal Financial Stability Committee (FSCom) in November 2014 to play a key coordinating role in macroprudential oversight, crisis management, and other financial stability issues, with policy decisions still being made by CBR’s Board of Directors (CBR Board). The government created the FSC in July 2013 as an advisory body that can make recommendations on measures to restore financial stability based on an assessment of systemic risk. In February 2015, the FSC was strengthened and has served as an effective platform for inter-agency coordination.
    Date: 2016–09–22
  9. By: Chernina, Eugenia M. (Centre for Labour Market Studies (CLMS) at Higher School of Economics, Moscow)
    Abstract: This paper studies how the previous destination choices by household members might affect current choice by labor migrants from Tajikistan in Russia. We use 2007 and 2009 waves of Tajikistan Living Standards Survey combined with Rosstat regional statistics to analyze the effect of 2007 household migration experience and receiving regions’ characteristics on 2008-2009 migrants’ location choice within Russia. Our results suggest that there exists inertia in migrants’ choices: previously chosen destinations largely define future ones. This inertia results in quickly weakening effect of labor market conditions on migrants’ choice with migration experience.
    Keywords: labor migration, international migration, destination choice, location choice, Tajikistan, Russia
    JEL: J61
    Date: 2016–08
  10. By: Breyel, Corinna; Grigoriadis, Theocharis
    Abstract: Resource-rich dictatorships are more inclined to repress civil society than others. In this paper, we identify a tradeoff between political rents from natural resources and the organizational density of civil society. This organizational density determines the extent to which citizens can threaten the dictator with a revolution. We find that, in the occurrence of a negative oil price shock, regime change becomes likely, whereas a positive oil shock increases the extractive capacity of the dictator. When a negative oil price shock occurs, the persecution of failed revolutionaries can prevent revolution if the probability of revolutionary success is already low ex-ante. Historical and contemporary illustrations are drawn from Iran, the Soviet Union/Russia and Egypt.
    Keywords: natural resources,dictatorship,civil society,organizational density,persecution
    JEL: C73 P36 P48 P51 Q34
    Date: 2016
  11. By: Vladimir D. Churakov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper is dedicated to the formal investigation of regional legislation in the sphere of the regulatory impact assessment (RIA). RIA is a crucial instrument for the evaluation of the effectiveness of law. It provides a solid basis for the objective assessment of proposed regulations in the sphere of business activity. The federal form of the Russian government requires the analysis of regional experience for the further development of RIA procedure.
    Keywords: regulatory impact assessment, law effectiveness, regional legislation.
    JEL: K00
    Date: 2016
  12. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: The experiences of past financial crises have strengthened the Russian bank resolution framework. In December 2014, the framework was updated by consolidating existing resolution regimes, including making permanent the temporary measures introduced in 2008 to deal with the failure of large banks. Key changes included enhancing powers to exchange information with foreign resolution authorities and sanctioning managers of failed banks.
    Date: 2016–09–22
  13. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: This technical note (TN) sets out the findings and recommendations made in the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) for the Russian Federation (RF) in the areas of Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT). It summarizes the findings of a targeted review of several aspects of the RF’s progress in addressing vulnerabilities in the financial sector, specifically the banking sector. A full assessment of the AML/CFT framework against the current FATF standard will be conducted by the FATF, Eurasia Group and MONEVYAL, and will be available in 2019. Although significant steps have been taken to strengthen the AML/CFT regime since the 2008 mutual evaluation report, the authorities are continuing to bring the AML/CFT framework in line with the 2012 FATF standard and improving its effectiveness.
    Date: 2016–09–22
  14. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: The Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) has recently completed a two-year process of assuming the powers and functions of the previous “standalone†regulator of the securities markets and the insurance industry. This has included absorbing 1,300 new staff and inducting them into the organizational structures of the central bank. In addition to its new supervisory functions covering a disparate group of markets and professional market participants, it has also assumed a developmental role for nonbank financial markets with an emphasis on developing proportionate regulation and optimizing the regulatory burden on market participants. This is a challenging medium to long-term role while also seeking to ensure that standards are raised and that undesirable elements are removed from the market as rapidly as possible.
    Date: 2016–09–22
    Abstract: Despite the new geopolitical situation caused by the revolution at Maidan in February 2014, little is known about the real economics of Ukraine and its internal spatial disparities. In the survey of regional disparities, data on incomes, employment and unemployment were involved and completed by those on migration and age structure of the population. The spectrum of available data at rayon level is not particularly broad, but this is counterbalanced by the ca. five hundred territorial units that provide a minute picture of the inequalities. According to the classic view, the spatial pattern of economic development is opposite to the Central European west to east slope. In Ukraine, Eastern regions are not more developed as a whole but they accommodate more developed large urban centres. Spatial differences grew most rapidly during the period of economic decline (1990–2000). However, these disparities were mitigated during the two years following the global financial crisis as the latter mainly affected the large urban centres of the economy. Conversely, the Donets Basin as a whole was highly exposed to the effects of these crises owing to its outdated industrial structure (coal mining, iron and steel industry). This led to a rearrangement in the ranking of the east Ukrainian regions based on GDP per capita: Dnipropetrovs’k overtook Donets’k, and the Dnieper Region (including Zaporizhzhia) has a higher output per capita than Donbas. A significant part of the productive capacities and incomes are found in the Donbas, an area hit hard by the fighting; their loss would further deteriorate the state of the country’s economy. The fighting in the Donbas that did by far the greatest harm to the economy among the post-Soviet conflicts. It happened in a period when Ukraine, after the transformation crisis, had been on the path of growth for more than one decade. Concerning population number, area and economic weight, the Donbas exceeds Transnistria or Karabakh by an order of magnitude.
    Keywords: Ukraine, crisis, separatism, regional inequalities, rayon level
    JEL: R00 R11 R12
    Date: 2015–02
  16. By: Edith Archambault (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This article puts the current cooperative pattern of state-nonprofit relations in France into historical context against the country’s statist past and suggests the implications this experience may have for other countries that share the statist background that France, perhaps in somewhat different form, also embodies. To do so, the discussion first reviews the current shape of the French nonprofit sector and the substantial scope and structure of government support of nonprofit human service delivery that exists. It then examines the unfavorable historical background out of which the current arrangements emerged and the set of changes that ultimately led to the existing pattern of extensive government-nonprofit cooperation. Against this background, a third section then looks more closely at the tools of action French governments are bringing to bear in their relations with nonprofits, the advantages and drawbacks of each, and the nonprofit role in the formulation of public policies. Finally, the article examines the key challenges in government-nonprofit cooperation in the provision of human services and the lessons the French experience might hold for Russia and other similar countries.
    Abstract: Cet article place le partenariat actuel entre le secteur non lucratif et les pouvoirs publics en perspective historique , en dépit d'une tradition jacobine défavorable, et suggère que l'expérience de l'évolution en France pourrait avoir des implications pour d'autres pays étatiste, sous des formes différentes vraisemblablement. Après un état des lieux actuel sur la part que le Tiers secteur occupe dans l'offre de services éducatifs et médico-sociaux en France et un rappel des étapes historiques marquant l'évolution des relations entre Etat et associations et fondations, l'article montre les divers moyens d'action des pouvoirs publics dans leurs relation avec ces organisations et l'influence du secteur non lucratif dans la formulation des politiques publiques
    Keywords: Nonprofit Organizations,nonprofit sector,associations,foundations,government-nonprofit relations,statism,welfare mix,public regulation,education,health,social services
    Date: 2016
  17. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: The state-dominated financial sector confronts several critical challenges. Deep and long standing structural problems and negative external spillovers are creating distortions affecting the credit channel and overall financial stability. Financial sector contingent liabilities are on the rise accentuating an already weak fiscal situation. The government is directing a large proportion of loans from state-owned banks to unhedged state-owned corporates. A Development Bank (DB), created in 2011 to centralize such directed lending, has grown rapidly to assume systemic significance. External imbalances, combined with low international reserves and significant negative spillovers from Russia—the main trade and financial partner, have weakened corporates’ ability to service foreign-currency obligations.
    Date: 2016–09–21
  18. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: The economy is contracting, hurt by external shocks and domestic structural weaknesses and rigidities. The authorities have taken some positive steps, including policies supporting macroeconomic stabilization and structural and institutional reforms such as a shift to a more flexible exchange rate. However, external sector weaknesses and negative macrofinancial feedback loops centered around the deteriorating performance of state owned enterprises (SOEs) are pushing up public and external debt, weakening the financial sector, and threatening stability.
    Date: 2016–09–21
  19. By: Alibek Konkakov (Kazakhstan Industry Development Institute); Gulaikhan Kubayeva (Economic Research Institute Kazakhstan)
    Abstract: Economic diversification policy is often on the agenda in developing economies. Typically, this implies the development of the manufacturing industry. It is believed that a strong manufacturing sector reduces economic volatility and contributes to the formation of the middle class. The economic history of countries such as Singapore, South Korea, Japan, where the development of the manufacturing industry was the key to the "economic miracle", confirms this thesis.
    Date: 2016–08

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