nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2016‒09‒04
five papers chosen by

  1. Elections, protest and trust in government: A natural experiment from Russia By Frye, Timothy; Borisova, Ekaterina
  2. Институты догоняющего развития By Polterovich, Victor
  3. Позитивное сотрудничество: факторы и механизмы эволюции. By Polterovich, Victor
  4. The Influence of Financial Market Development on Economic Growth in BRICS Countries By Charles Wait; Tafadzwa Ruzive
  5. Population Decline in Lithuania: Who Lives in Declining Regions and Who Leaves? By Ubarevičienė, Rūta; van Ham, Maarten

  1. By: Frye, Timothy; Borisova, Ekaterina
    Abstract: How do flawed elections and post-election protest shape political attitudes? Taking advantage of the largely exogenous variation in the timing of a survey conducted in Moscow, we examine the short-term impact of the parliamentary election of December 4th, and the large protest of December 10th on trust in the Russian government. The fraud-marred parliamentary election had little effect on attitudes toward government, perhaps because allegations of vote improprieties were not new information. In contrast, the large protest of December 10th increased trust in government. Heightened trust arises largely from non-supporters of the ruling party updating their beliefs rather than from social desirability bias, a perceived improvement in government performance, or a “halo” effect. This finding is consistent with the view that autocrats can increase trust in government by unexpectedly allowing protest without repression. It also suggests that when evaluating trust in government citizens may cue not off the content of the protest, but off the holding of the protest itself.
    Keywords: trust in government, protest, elections, partisanship
    JEL: P26 D72
    Date: 2016–08–18
  2. By: Polterovich, Victor
    Abstract: It is shown that the institutional trajectories of catching-up development in successful countries contained similar interim institutions; this similarity is explained by common technological, institutional and cultural constraints that should be taken into account and to overcome. Corporatism, indicative planning, the presence of the "main" development agencies with broad powers, maintaining an undervalued exchange rate - due to these and a number of other mechanisms, countries of economic miracle were able to initiate and maintain rapid growth, despite low level of human capital, underdevelopment of civic culture, and market failures. Institutes of catching-up development contributed to the formation of collaborative relationships between the government, business and society. They softened the existed constraints, and they itself were gradually modified to ensure the transition to modern democracy with effective market economy. The analysis allows to outline а plan of institutional reform , taking into account the institutional particularities of Russia. The principles of the administrative reform are considered. The problem of the formation of a hybrid national planning system is formulated, which includes indicative planning and program budgeting. To finance the planned projects, it is offered a mix of public-private partnership and project financing. It is proposed to use the Japanese experience of stimulating temporary association of companies for the development of modernization projects. The principles of reforming of the state property governance, as well as education and science sectors are discussed.
    Keywords: interim institution, social values, democratization, indicative planning, national innovation system, imitation, public-private ownership
    JEL: A13 B52 D02 L52 O21 O25 P11 P21
    Date: 2016–08–27
  3. By: Polterovich, Victor
    Abstract: It is proposed to distinguish between two types of collaboration: a positive (not directed against third parties) and a negative one. I consider the hypothesis that in the process of social development, transaction costs ratio of the three main types of coordination - competition, power, and collaboration - is changing in favor of the latter. The mechanisms responsible for the implementation of this tendency are studied, and an attempt to explain its nonmonotonicity is made. It is shown that the strengthening role of positive collaboration is largely explained by cultural changes: the increase of tolerance culture, the spread of cosmopolitanism and altruism, increasing planning horizon as well as trust radius. I demonstrate the importance of the institutions of positive collaboration in the process of catching-up development; it is shown that shock reforms could lead to the formation of negative collaboration mechanisms. For the further development of these ideas, a program of interdisciplinary researches is outlined. Рассматривается гипотеза о том, что в процессе общественного развития соотношение трансакционных издержек трех основных типов координации – конкуренции, власти и сотрудничества – меняется в пользу последнего. Исследуются механизмы, ответственные за реализацию этой тенденции.
    Keywords: coordination, positive and negative collaboration, Golden rule of morality, transaction costs, tolerance, cosmopolitanism, altruism, radius of trust, catching-up development
    JEL: B00 B4 B52 N00 P11
    Date: 2016–08–29
  4. By: Charles Wait; Tafadzwa Ruzive
    Abstract: The debate about the influence of financial market development on economic growth has been ongoing for more than a century. Since Schumpeter (1912) wrote about the happenings on Lombard Street, right up to the economists of today, there is growing interest into how financial market development affects economic activity and hence economic growth. With economic growth gaining prominence in respect of development discourse, inquiry into the finance-growth nexus has grown rapidly. The latest advances of the finance-growth nexus show a positive relationship between financial market development and economic growth. In this regard, little research has been done globally pertaining to most recent economic developments, especially concerning the BRICS economies. This research investigates the influence of financial market development on emerging economies, BRICS and non-BRICS and to determine whether the openness of financial markets in BRICS economies contributed to higher growth trajectories compared to their non-BRICS counterparts. The research utilises the Generalised Method of Moments and an extended endogenous growth model to estimate the influence of a set of financial market indicators. The study found that higher levels of credit to the private sector and financial depth in the BRICS economies contributed to the higher levels of economic growth experienced in the BRICS compared to non-BRICs emerging economies.
    Keywords: Financial Market Development, economic growth, BRICS
    Date: 2016–07
  5. By: Ubarevičienė, Rūta (Lithuanian Social Research Centre); van Ham, Maarten (Delft University of Technology)
    Abstract: Since the 1990s, Lithuania lost almost a quarter of its population, and some regions within the country lost more than 50% of their residents. Such a sharp population decline poses major challenges to politicians, policy makers and planners. This study aims to get more insight into the recent processes of socio-spatial change and the role of selective migration in Lithuania. The main focus is on understanding who lives in those regions which are rapidly losing population, and who is most likely to leave these regions. This is one of the first studies to use individual level Lithuanian census data from 2001 and 2011. We found that low socio-economic status residents and older residents dominate the population of shrinking regions, and unsurprisingly we found that the most "successful" people are the most likely to leave such regions. This process of selective migration reinforces the negative downward spiral of declining regions. As a result, socio-spatial polarisation is growing within the country, where people with higher socio-economic status are increasingly overrepresented in the largest city-regions, while the elderly and residents with a lower socioeconomic status are overrepresented in declining rural regions. This paper provides empirical evidence of selective migration and increasing regional disparities in Lithuania. While the socio-spatial changes are obvious in Lithuania, there is no clear strategy on how to cope with extreme population decline and increasing regional inequalities within the country.
    Keywords: population decline, shrinking regions, internal migration, socio-spatial polarisation, Lithuania
    JEL: R23 O15 J11 P20
    Date: 2016–08

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