nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2016‒08‒14
three papers chosen by

  1. How Multilevel Elite Loyalty Strengthens Electoral Authoritarianism: Evidence from Gubernatorial Elections in Russia By Elena Sirotkina; Svetlana Karandashova
  2. The Impact of Agricultural and Trade Policies on Price Transmission in Central Asia By Bobokhonov, Abdulmajid; Pokrivcak, Jan; Rajcaniova, Miroslava
  3. Direct and indirect effects based on difference-in-differences with an application to political preferences following the Vietnam draft lottery By Deuchert, Eva; Huber, Martin; Schelker, Mark

  1. By: Elena Sirotkina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Svetlana Karandashova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Maintain autocratic regimes is widely acknowledged to require elite loyalty. However, does this imply that various elite groups equally contribute to the daily performance of an autocratic regime and to winning elections? Based on empirical evidence of recent gubernatorial elections in Russia we explore the effect of multilevel elite disloyalty on gubernatorial electoral results and voter turnout. Having examined the impact of major regional elites, we find that only conflicts between governors and the mayors of regional capitals hav¬¬e significant and robust negative effect on both electoral turnout and the voting for governor. Encouraging the loyalty of these mayors secures smoother political machinery in the most electorally significant areas of the region and thus can determine the outcome of an electoral campaign. This finding provides another confirmation of the paramount role of covert rather than open inter-elite competition for electoral autocracies maintenance.
    Keywords: electoral autocracy, Russian politics, Russian regions, regional politics, gubernatorial elections, elites
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2016
  2. By: Bobokhonov, Abdulmajid; Pokrivcak, Jan; Rajcaniova, Miroslava
    Abstract: This paper investigates the market integration between international and domestic markets in the case of two-transition countries namely Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. More specifically, our study aims to understand the extent and speed of price transmission from international to local market. We have used cointegration techniques to analyse the price transmission mechanism, such as a vector error correction model (VEC). We have found strong cointegration evidences between world market and domestic market of Tajikistan while no cointegration was observed in case of Uzbekistan. Tajikistan has liberal trade while Uzbekistan frequently used protectionist trade policy.
    Keywords: price transmission, market integration, agricultural trade, food prices, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, Demand and Price Analysis, Q1,
    Date: 2016–07
  3. By: Deuchert, Eva; Huber, Martin; Schelker, Mark
    Abstract: This study empirically evaluates the impact of the war in eastern Ukraine on the political attitudes aThis paper proposes a difference-in-differences approach for disentangling a total treatment effect on some outcome into a direct impact as well as an indirect effect operating through a binary intermediate variable – or mediator – within strata defined upon how the mediator reacts to the treatment. We show under which assumptions the direct effects on the always and never takers, whose mediator is not affected by the treatment, as well as the direct and indirect effects on the compliers, whose mediator reacts to the treatment, are identified. We provide an empirical application based on the Vietnam draft lottery. The results suggest that a high draft risk due to the lottery leads to a relative increase in the support for the Republican Party and that this increase is mostly driven by those complying with the lottery outcome.
    Keywords: treatment effects; causal mechanisms; direct and indirect effects; Vietnam War lottery; political preferences; difference-indifferences
    JEL: C21 C22 D70 D72
    Date: 2016–08–04

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