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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2016‒08‒07
33 papers chosen by |
| By: | Mamedov Arseny (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Fomina Elena (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Belev Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2015, the share of subnational budget expenditure of the Russian Federation consolidated budget dropped considerably from 39.7% in 2014 to 32.1% in 2015 (excluding expenditure for the Crimean Federal Okrug). The share of tax revenues shrank to a lesser extent, from 32.6% to 28.6%, during the same period. The decline in the share of subnational budget expenditure of the total volume of Russia’s consolidated budget expenditure is explained largely by faster-than-normal growth of the federal budget expenditure (by 5.6% in nominal terms). The federal budget expenditure increased first of all for ‘General National Issues’ (by 18.6%), ‘National Defense’ (by 28.3%), ‘Housing and Utilities’ (by 20.5%), ‘Social Policy’ (by 23.5%), ‘Municipal and Public Debt Servicing’ (by 24.8%). Subnational budget expenditure increased in the period under review by 1.4% (excluding expenditure for the Crimean Federal Okrug). |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, fiscal relations, subnational finance, consolidated budget, debt policy |
| JEL: | H77 H76 H74 H71 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Drobyshevsky Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Kazakova Maria (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Russia’s officials made multiple statements in 2015, saying Russia had hit the bottom of its recessionary valley. For example, a few top members of Russia’s government and representatives of the Russian business community (in particular, First Vice-Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov and Sberbank CEO/Chairman German Gref) said in May 2015 the current crisis in Russia had reached its peak and the economy was expected to see some recovery. In late 2015, Russia’s Minister of Economic Development Alexey Ulyukaev said the recession was over and the bottom was hit. At the same time, Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development (MED) and some other international organizations – such as Bank of America, JP Morgan, IMF and World Bank – upgraded (not for long though) their 2015 forecast for Russia. The Ministry of Economic Development made similar statements, in particular in July and October 2015. Andrei Klepach, Chief Economist of Vnesheconombank, questioned these statements, noting in late August that the bottom was still to be reached, and he expected Russia to continue facing a downturn in investment and construction sectors, while budget and consumer demand ceased to be the drivers of positive growth rates in economy. As early as December, Herman Gref predicted that Russia’s economy would face a downturn in 2016, and then it might “decay” unless across-the-board reforms are undertaken |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, GDP |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F15 F40 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Olga Gorelova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Andrey Lovakov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The literature on the consequences of academic inbreeding shows ambiguous results: some papers show that inbreeding positively influences research productivity, measured in the quantity and quality of publications, while others show the opposite effect. There are contradictory results both in studies of different countries and within countries. Such a variety of results makes it impossible to transfer the findings from one academic system to another, and in Russia this problem has been under explored. This paper focuses on the relationship between inbreeding and publication activity among Russian faculty members. The results, using Russian data from the Changing Academic Profession survey, showed no substantial effect of academic inbreeding on research productivity. Inbred and non-inbred faculty members do not differ substantially in terms of the probability of having publications, or how many, although for inbreds such probability is slightly higher. These results are robust for different operationalizations of inbreeding and measures of publication activity. However the absence of significant differences in the number of publications may not mean the absence of a difference in their quality. The possible explanations and limitations of the standard measures of research productivity are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Academic profession, Academic inbreeding, Research productivity, Faculty members, Russian higher education, Changing Academic Profession |
| JEL: | I23 I28 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Radygin Alexandr (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Apevalova Elena (RANEPA); Polezhaeva Natalia (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | Bankruptcy legislation in the post-Soviet Russia was for the first time introduced in 1992 by the Executive Order of the President “On Measures for the Support and Rehabilitation of Insolvent State-Owned Enterprises (Bankrupt Debtors) and the Application of Special Proceedings to Them” No. 623 of June 14, 1992, which stipulated grounds for liquidation of enterprises, special liquidation proceedings such as reorganization, rehabilitation, direct administration of the enterprise, independent management, auctions for sale of enterprise, and other provisions concerning bankruptcy. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, bankruptcy, public enterprises |
| JEL: | G33 G38 P2 P31 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Idrisov Georgy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Kaukin Andrey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Ponomarev Yuri (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Russia’s real economy continued throughout 2015 to accommodate itself to new terms of trade and a new geopolitical context, both of which rendered the dynamics of domestic market’s key indicators less stable and less foreseeable. To make sure that sectoral dynamics are interpreted correctly, analysis of time series in the short term should be attended with seasonal and calendar adjustments. In order to be certain that the available dynamics of industrial production indicates that a period of downturn (or growth) is over, recovery (or slowdown) processes are afoot, monthly series should be decomposed into calendar, seasonal, irregular and trend components.[1] It is the changes of the trend component that should be analyzed in order to provide a substantial interpretation of sectoral trends. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, Russian industry, industrial production |
| JEL: | C53 E37 L21 L52 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Zadonsky Georgy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2015, according to the data released by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, credit institutions extended 691,943 housing mortgage loans (HML) to the tune of Rb 1,147.339bn, which constituted 68.32% of the total amount of HML extended in 2014 and 65.04% in monetary terms. In the same period, 706,786 housing loans were originated totaling to Rb 1,168.222bn, which in quantity of loans comes to 66.71% and in monetary terms 64.14% of the extended loans. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, mortgage market, new housing construction |
| JEL: | R14 R21 R52 G21 K11 L74 L85 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Zadonsky Georgy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | According to the data released by the Rosreestr, the area of land plots owned by Russian nationals keeps decreasing and as of 1 January 2015 amounted to 115,400,000 ha or 6.8% of the land of the Russian Federation against 117m ha (6.84%) as of 1 January 2014. On the contrary, the area of land in public and municipal ownership and ownership of legal entities keeps growing. Within a year, the area of land plots owned by legal entities increased by 1.3m ha and amounted to 17.2m ha or 1.0% of the land of the Russian Federation. The area of land plots in public and municipal ownership increased by 37,900 ha. As of 1 January 2015, Russian nationals’ land shares decreased by 3.0m ha and amounted to 5.2% (89.3m ha) of the country’s land or 67.3% of land in private ownership. A decrease in the area of land in shared ownership is regarded as positive factor as land plots in shared ownership by virtue of incompleteness of that title are used inefficiently. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, land market |
| JEL: | G21 K11 L74 L85 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Karachurina Lilia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In January-November 2015 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, Russia’s positive migration balance moved down by around 20% and came to 214,900 persons. Negative migration balance resulted not so much from the contraction of the number of inflows as could be figured by the current Russia’s economic situation as from the 15 percent growth of outflows. Monthly/quarterly registration posted positive balance of the number of inflows solely in Q1, later there was balance and in Q4 there was an obvious decrease. Evidently, by the end of the year previously planned and finally implemented resettlements into Russia as well as statistical lag were “eroded” by the ruble devaluation and general economic recession. In the course of the year, the outflows from Russia demonstrated steady downward trend against the corresponding indices of 2014. As a result, Russia’s net migration starting with Q2 2015 was constantly less than compared to the same period of 2014. In November negative migration balance came to around 30 p.p. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, internal migration, long-term migration, external labor migration |
| JEL: | J61 J62 F22 J11 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Bozhechkova Alexandra (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Trunin Pavel (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Kiyutsevskaya Anna (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2015, the Bank of Russia faced global challenges while implementing measures as part of its monetary policy. The economic situation in 2015 was marked by the following: Western sanctions and Russia’s countersanctions remained in effect, prices of Russia’s key export commodities continued to fall, economic agents’ expectations for high inflation remained intact. The sweeping depreciation of the Russian ruble in late 2014/early 2015 resulted in an inflation shock which kept the year-end inflation at high level: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 12.9% at the 2015 year-end, much higher than the 2017 mid-term target level (4%) set forth in the central bank’s Guidelines for the Single State Monetary Policy for 2015–2017. In its official 2015 forecast, Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development predicted inflation will not move beyond 6.3% in late 2014/early 2015, and Russia’s central bank expected it to stay at 8.2–8.7% under the baseline scenario and 9.3–9.8% under the risk scenario. At the same time, the Bank of Russia cut its key rate gradually from 17% in January down to 11% in December 2015 as inflation slowed down over the course of the year. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, monetary policy, money market, exchange rate, INFLATION, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS |
| JEL: | E31 E43 E44 E51 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Izryadnova Olga (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Over the course of 2015, the average money income in nominal terms increased by 10.1%, to Rb 30,311 per capita. Although the year 2015 saw a rise in the growth rate of nominal money incomes relative to 2014, a 12.9% increase in consumer prices caused a sharp decline in the indicators of the standard of living in real terms. In 2015, the real disposable incomes of the population, real wages, and the real size of allotted pension amounted to 96.0%, 90.5% and 96.2% respectively, of their values in 2014 |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, living standard, money income, spending of the population |
| JEL: | I31 I32 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Volovik Nadezhda (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2015, economic growth rates in countries, which are main trade partners of the Russian Federation, turned out to be below forecast of a year earlier. In 2015, according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China[1], the China's GDP went up by 6.9% annualized, which is the minimum over the recent 25 years. Production growth in 2015 has slowed down to 6.0% and growth of the service sector up to 8.3%. In 2014, growth rates posted 7.3% and 7.8%, respectively. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, foreign trade, terms of trade, regional pattern |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F19 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Zatsepin Vasily (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Tsymbal Vitaly (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Unlike previous years, the findings of analysis of Russia’s military economics and policy in 2015 fail to match what is perceived as absolute peacetime. The IISS, a world-leading authority on global security, argues that Russia is conducting a so-called hybrid warfare. The published views of western experts on hybrid warfare reflect the events occurred in Ukraine over the last two years. The spring of 2015 saw changes in accusations against Russia following Russia’s air strikes and cruise missiles strikes on the positions of ISIS terrorists in Syria. The fact that Russia is conducting special-purpose military operations is indisputable. Russia took the terrorist attack that brought down the Russian plane in Egypt, killing all 224 Russian passengers on board, as military assault against Russia’s nationals, thus forcing Russia to introduce retaliatory military counteractions against not only the ISIS in Syria but also against organizers and sponsors of terrorism. Later there were acts of terrorism in France, that prompted the French government to join the war against the ISIS, acting in conjunction with Russia and with a few other countries. Being unhappy with these developments, the Turkish government prepared the shoot down of a Russian military jet along the Syrian border. Russia responded with economic countersanctions, warning more sanctions could follow. Therefore, it appears logical that a new version of the Russian Federation National Security Strategy (Executive Order of the President No. 683 dated December 31, 2015) was approved on the very last day of 2015 . |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, military-industrial complex, military reform, defense order, military procurement, defense control |
| JEL: | D74 F52 H56 F51 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Jens K. Perret (European Institute for International Economic Relations at the University of Wuppertal) |
| Abstract: | The present study picks up on the aspect of knowledge generation - a key part of every national innovation system - in the context of the USA and the Russian Federation. Following Fritsch and Slavtchev (2006) a knowledge production function can be used to account for the efficiency of an innovation systems. In detail this study provides a quantile regression estimation of the knowledge production function to account for a possible non-linear relationship between knowledge inputs and knowledge output. Using regional data for researchers, expenditures on R\& D and patent grants for the USA and the Russian Federation - motivated by the results of a kernel density estimation and transition matrices - a quantile regression is performed for a basic knowledge production function design; for Russia as well for an extended design. The results show that in both countries there exist groups of regions with smaller sized research systems that report significantly different dynamics and thus knowledge production functions than regions with larger sized research systems. |
| Keywords: | Russian Federation, USA, Innovation System, Knowledge Production Function, Knowledge Generation, Quantile Regression, Regional Economics |
| JEL: | P25 O31 O57 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Tsukhlo Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | This section is prepared using the data of monthly business surveys conducted by the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (IEP) among managers of industrial enterprises since September 1992. The surveys are conducted on the basis of the European harmonized methodology and encompass the entire territory of the Russian Federation. The size of the panel is around 1,000 enterprises, which employ over 13% of the total number of employed in industry. The panel is biased towards large enterprises in each of the selected branches. The rate of response to questionnaires ranges from 70% to 75%. The business survey questionnaire contains quite a small number of questions (not more than 15-20). They are of qualitative rather than quantitative nature. The simple formulation of questions and answers allows the respondents to fill in the forms quickly and without consulting any documentation. It is essential that the respondent at each enterprise is an executive of the highest level possible who is fully aware of the situation at the enterprise and is directly involved in its management |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, industry, recession |
| JEL: | C53 E37 L21 L52 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Ekaterina V. Krekhovets (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Liudmila A. Leonova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Student friendship networks can be considered as social capital, which is known to be a very useful resource during university and after it. Several empirical studies have examined static models of student behaviour in social networks. In this study we analyse the dynamic changes of student social connections. We use original longitude data of student social ties from one Russian university. Data was collected within the framework of a research project of the International Research Laboratory for Institutional Analysis of Economic Reforms. To investigate factors influencing the evolution of social ties during university probit regressions were tested. We found that students with similar characteristics such as gender and academic achievement are more likely to become friends and continue to be friends. Both studying in the same group and living in a dormitory increase the likelihood of being friends. We also found a transitivity effect. We observe a positive effect of having common friend on friendship ties. We also notice a positive link between reciprocity and friendship stability. |
| Keywords: | social networks, friendship, higher education |
| JEL: | D85 I21 I23 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Radygin Alexandr (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Malginov Georgiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The paper deals with the issues of public sector and privatization in Russia in 2015. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, public sector, privatization |
| JEL: | K11 H82 L32 L33 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Knobel Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Baeva Marina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | With Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on August 22, 2012, the country joined the mechanism of settlement of trade disputes in the WTO. Such a mechanism operates in the WTO in accordance with the Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes (DSU). So, from August 2012 Russia has the right to protect its trade interests by means of the above instrument. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, foreign trade, WTO, trade disputes |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F19 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Mamedov Arseny (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Fomina Elena (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Belev Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2015, the general government increased their budget revenues in absolute terms by Rb 123bn from 2014, however the revenues dropped by 0.9 percentage points of GDP and by 13% in real terms (including CPI). The general government increased their budget expenditure both in nominal terms and as a percentage of GDP by 1.5 percentage points of GDP, whereas expenditure in real terms were cut by 7% over values seen in 2014. As a result, the general government ran their budget with a deficit of 3.5% of GDP (the 2014 budget deficit was 1.1% of GDP). Note that the 2015 deficit was many times the value recorded in 2013–2014, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP, whereas a surplus was recorded in 2011–2012. Thus, in 2015 Russia’s budget system saw its balance deteriorate seriously over values seen in 2011–2014. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, budget system, tax revenues, budget parameters |
| JEL: | H61 H62 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Ilya Prakhov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Maria Bocharova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the determinants of student mobility under the unified system of admission in Russia and evaluates the barriers which still limit educational mobility. It is argued that even under the Unified State Examination (USE) and the decreased transaction costs of applying to universities, student mobility is directed towards more developed regional educational markets and richer regions, but is still limited due to the financial constraints in the absence of the additional student support. Russia is a unique case, because it consists of regions with a high variation in socio-economic development and has local higher education markets with different levels of competition between universities. This study shows the importance of the institutional characteristics of regions in student mobility |
| Keywords: | educational mobility, student mobility, university choice, the Unified State Exam |
| JEL: | I21 I23 I24 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Izryadnova Olga (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The crisis of 2008-2009 determined main structural changes in the formation of investment resources during post-crisis period up to 2015. Easing of economic growth rates was accompanied by a contraction of the share of gross savings in GDP from 30.2% in 2008 to 22.9% in 2014 and 23.1% in 2015. During 2010-2013 investment in fixed assets constituted around 20.0%. In 2014, owing to a reduction of revenues in the economy the share of investment in fixed assets fell to 17.8% and in 2015 came to 18.1% of GDP. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, fixed investment |
| JEL: | E20 E21 E22 E60 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Izryadnova Olga (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The crisis of 2008-2009 determined main structural changes in the formation of investment resources during post-crisis period up to 2015. Easing of economic growth rates was accompanied by a contraction of the share of gross savings in GDP from 30.2% in 2008 to 22.9% in 2014 and 23.1% in 2015. During 2010-2013 investment in fixed assets constituted around 20.0%. In 2014, owing to a reduction of revenues in the economy the share of investment in fixed assets fell to 17.8% and in 2015 came to 18.1% of GDP. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, fixed investment |
| JEL: | E20 E21 E22 E60 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Klyachko Tatiana (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The following public’s common perception of higher education continues to be prevalent in Russia: the quality of higher education keeps deteriorating; higher education fails to meet the requirements of the labor market; higher education graduates do not work in jobs strictly or closely related to their degrees or major; there is an oversupply of students in the country; there is need to train specialists with secondary vocational education and blue collar workers that are in shortage. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, higher education, vocational education, job skills |
| JEL: | I21 I23 I25 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Dezhina Irina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2015, the budget allocations to civilian research and development (R&D) were cut by approximately 8% at current prices by comparison with the targets set in the basic version of the Law on the 2015 Federal Budget and 2016–2017 Budget Plan. The reduction in the amount of budget funding is of critical importance for the science sector, because the federal budget has remained the principal source of funding for research and development, covering about 70% of the aggregate expenditures on R&D. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, R&D, science, technology |
| JEL: | I21 I22 I23 I24 I25 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Abramov Alexander (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | The year 2015 saw a continuation of the longest slump in the history of Russia's stock market, which had started in May 2008. In 1997–1998, after the RTS Index had dropped by 91.3%, and the MICEX Index - by 73.0%, from their pre-crisis highs over a period that lasted slightly more than a year, they both managed to recover their former quotes in 58 and 8 months respectively. Now, as of February 2016, after their plummet during the acute phase of the 2008 crisis, both these stock indices have never recovered: the MICEX Index over the period of 88 months, and the RTS Index – 85 months. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, financial markets, financial institutions |
| JEL: | G01 G12 G18 G21 G24 G28 G32 G33 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Malginov Georgiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sternik G. (Plekhanov REA) |
| Abstract: | The paper deals with the issues of price dynamics on residential property on secondary and primary markets |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, residential property |
| JEL: | K11 H82 L32 L33 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Uzun Vasily (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Shagaida Natalia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Gataulina Ekaterina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Yanbykh Renata (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | In 2015 the war of sanctions and the shutting down of access to Russian food markets for countries included in the sanction list[1] created favourable conditions for domestic farm producers. The limiting factor was the drop of ruble exchange rate that dramatically lifted prices for many farm inputs, both imported (hybrid seeds, pesticides, breeder stock, etc.) and exported (fertilizers, fuels). Therefore, there were fears that farmers would fail to benefit from the shutting down of markets and to increase domestic agricultural output. However, farm producers did not reduce areas sown in all major crops as compared with the previous year. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, import substitution, food embargo, sanctions, counter sanctions |
| JEL: | Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Fuad Aleskerov; Victoria Oleynik |
| Abstract: | The multidimensional extension of the Aleskerov-Golubenko polarization index is developed. Several versions of the polarization index are proposed based on different distance functions. Basic properties of the index are examined. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Starodubrovskaya Irina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Since mid-2015, the republics of the north-eastern Caucasus (Dagestan, Chechnya and Ingushetia) have been experiencing a new round of escalation of the conflict, which is rather simplistically interpreted by many observers as a controversy between Sufis[1] and Salafis. It should be noted that the law enforcement agencies and even the authorities of the North Caucasian republics are also most heavily involved in that conflict. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, North Caucasus |
| JEL: | H11 H70 H77 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Kazenin Konstantin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | One of the vectors of change in the North Caucasus in 2015 was the abolition of direct popular vote in the elections of heads of municipal formations. Very few of the municipal districts, urban districts, urban-type and rural settlements across the North Caucasus are still applying the system of forming the bodies of local self-government (LSG) that envisages that the head of a given administrative entity should be elected by direct popular vote. The most drastic changes in this respect occurred in 2015 in the Republic of Dagestan, where new legislation was adopted whereby a uniform method for forming the bodies of LSG was introduced for the entire region, when only the deputies of rural settlement and urban district assemblies are elected directly by popular vote. That region can serve as an illustration of how the ‘rolling back’ of direct popular elections to LSG is fraught with significant risks, and so cannot be regarded as a stabilizing factor. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, North Caucasus |
| JEL: | H11 H70 H77 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Shadrin Artem (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The regions’ consolidated budgets and the budgets of subnational state off-budget funds ran with a deficit of Rb 178.7bn (0.22% of GDP) at the 2015 year-end. In terms of percentage of GDP, the regions’ consolidated budget deficit was over three times as little as the value recorded in 2014. For example, in 2014, subnational budgets ran a deficit of Rb 485.6bn (0.68% of GDP). |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, municipal finances, loan market |
| JEL: | H71 H74 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Vasilev, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the business cycle in Bulgaria and the Baltic countries: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania during the 1993-2005 period. The paper aims at deepening the understanding of the nature of output fluctuations. The neoclassical approach will be employed, much in the spirit of the Real Business Cycle (RBC) literature, which gives a general equilibrium picture of the transition process. The model used in this paper follows the methodology of King, Plosser and Rebelo (1988). Both the model and data series show that the major drop in output was due to productivity. In addition, the timing of the banking reforms coincides with the improvement of economic performance. This is a strong indication that banking regulations in place were crucial for the output performance throughout the period in Bulgaria and the Baltic countries, a finding that has important implications for economic policy. |
| Keywords: | Business cycles,productivity |
| JEL: | C68 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Central and West Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Central and West Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | The resurgence of conservative patriarchal values in Tajikistan have led to the rise of early marriages and polygamy, compromising women’s and girls’ opportunities to realize their full potential to live quality lives, and have deterred women from fully participating in and benefitting from development. This country gender assessment report re-examines the gender equality situation in the country, identifies critical gender issues such as gender-based barriers to economic opportunities, social services, and to leadership and decision-making posts. The report also provides sector-specific gender analyses and identifies entry points for mainstreaming gender in agriculture and natural resources, education, energy, entrepreneurship and SME development, and transport. |
| Keywords: | Tajikistan, women, gender issues, gender equality, gender mainstreaming, gender and development, gender index, gender roles, sex-disaggregated statistics, climate change, private sector, entrepreneurship, education, water, transport, energy, agriculture and natural resources, infrastructure, policy, gender institutions, leadership, civil society, decision-making, poverty, economic opportunities, health, violence against women, labor, migration, wages |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |
| By: | Ira N. Gang (Rutgers University); Ksennia Gatskova (IOS-Regensburg); John Landon Lane (Rutgers University); Myeong-Su Yun (Inha University) |
| Abstract: | We examine vulnerability to poverty in Tajikistan during the global financial crisis, focusing on the roles played by international migration and remittances, using a formal, practical, and easily decomposable vulnerability measure. Our strategy is to estimate a Markov transition probability matrix with the aim of identifying the vulnerability of households to poverty. Importantly, by introducing the index of vulnerability as the weighted probability of a household falling into poverty over a given time horizon, we can use the estimated dynamics to assess the short, medium and long-run vulnerability. We find that during the “recession transition” almost all households were vulnerable to poverty while almost none were during the “recovery period”. Overall, urban households, more educated households and households receiving remittances from international labor migrants were less vulnerable to poverty. While households with a current or very recent migrant did not have a significantly lower measured vulnerability to poverty, those households receiving remittances from migrants had a lower vulnerability to poverty. Our findings stress that the international labor migration from Tajikistan may not be considered as a reliable means of welfare security for the households because external economic shocks and internal political decisions may negatively affect Russian economy and lead to a reduction of remittances flow to Tajikistan. |
| Keywords: | mobility measurement, vulnerability, poverty, inequality, Tajikistan |
| JEL: | J60 D63 I32 |
| Date: | 2016–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=&r=cis |