nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2016‒07‒30
eight papers chosen by

  1. Drivers of growth in Russia By Markus Brueckner; Birgit Hansl
  2. Global Energy Trends and Their Implications for Russia: A Pathway to the New Energy Wave By Elena Kyzyngasheva; Liliana Proskuryakova
  3. Spatial structure and economic network formation of manufacturing exports in Russia By Kuznetsova Maria
  4. Russian Economic Policy in 2015: Anti-Crisis Measures or Structural Reforms By Mau Vladimir
  5. Measuring Syria’s exported tomato competitiveness in Iraqi and Russian markets by using Composite Competitiveness Indicator (CCI) By Babili, Mahmoud; Al Somaya, Khitam; Badro, Bashar
  6. On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks By Belke, Ansgar; Dreger, Christian; Dubova, Irina
  7. ポスト私有化期の所有構造と企業パフォーマンス : 移行経済研究のメタ分析 By 溝端, 佐登史; 岩﨑, 一郎
  8. Trade Policy Options of Ukraine: East or West By Irena Mikolajun; Richard Paap; Jean-Marie Viaene; Olga Zelenko

  1. By: Markus Brueckner; Birgit Hansl
    Abstract: Between the end of the 1990s and the first decade of the 2000s Russia experienced significant growth in GDP per capita that was driven by transitional convergence, structural reforms, and improvements in the terms of trade. Reforms to the structure of the economy boosted growth by over 2 percentage points per annum with improvements in telecommunication infrastructure, financial development, and a reduction in the GDP share of government consumption being the most important structural reforms. The paper discusses Russia’s growth performance relative to comparator countries: countries in the European and Central Asia regions, advanced natural resource exporting countries and the BRICS countries. Economic growth was significantly lifted in advanced natural resource exporting countries due to the international commodity price boom, for example, in Russia improvements in the terms of trade lifted growth by over 1 percentage point per annum. In the group of advanced natural resource exporting countries and BRICS countries, Russia is at the forefront in terms of growth benefits arising from structural reforms.
    Date: 2016–07
  2. By: Elena Kyzyngasheva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Liliana Proskuryakova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Despite the success of many countries in increasing energy saving and energy efficiency, the global energy consumption is expected to continue its growth. The main reasons are economic development and population growth happening primarily in developing and emerging economies, especially in India and China. In such circumstances fossil fuels will remain the dominant energy source in the medium and even long run. The present research paper aims at analyzing the current global trends in the energy sector identified through literature review and expert tools, and their influence on Russia. Considering a broad range of factors, the paper determined the following main challenges for the Russian energy sector: tightening competition at international energy markets, the need for comprehensive modernization and stronger energy efficiency measures, the need for technological catch-up in a number of energy sector segments, the need to increase recovery factor at traditional oilfields, and the need to diversify energy mix by increasing the share of renewables. The paper also considers the main rationale for the last challenge that include strengthened security, reliability and sustainability of the Russian energy sector. Among the key preconditions for advancements in renewable energy are improvements in investment climate, modernisation of the central grid and changes in energy policy. The paper is based on the outcomes of the first stage of the Foresight project devoted to renewable energy technologies
    Keywords: energy trends, renewable energy, global energy sector, Russian energy sector.
    JEL: O13 P47 Q42 Q43 Q47
    Date: 2016
  3. By: Kuznetsova Maria
    Abstract: We study the agglomeration effect of exporters on decision of a firm to start exporting and volumes of trade. The unique database of Russian exporters in manufacturing sector for the eight-years period was constructed. It enables us to examine the nature and channels of export spillovers along the product and destination dimensions. At first, we provide the analysis using the existing empirical strategies. Our findings support the previous results, that export spillovers are destination-specific and affect both margins of trade. On the top of that, the large data sample and the usage of multiple fixed effects, that absorb time-variant and time-invariant unobserved characteristics, allowed us to achieve better identification strategy of the export spillover effect. It acts through the narrow group of firms that export the same product to the same destination as exporters nearby. Moreover, we tend to follow network view of international trade (Rauch 1999). The export spillover effect is positive for differentiated goods and negative for homogeneous goods. The presence of other exporters nearby to contiguous or linked country affects positively decision of a firm to export the same product to the same country.
    JEL: F14 R12
    Date: 2016–07–04
  4. By: Mau Vladimir (RANEPA)
    Abstract: Today, the world is looking for the new equilibrium that should occur after the global structural (systemic) crisis that began in 2008 and still more or less continues. We are witnessing the formation of a new macroeconomic (including the nature of monetary policy and economic growth potential) and institutional growth model, a change in the roles of certain economic sectors, the emergence of a new model for globalization and international trade, and a re-thinking of the role of inequality in the economic and social development of the leading states. The situation remains unstable, although the global crisis itself is nearing completion
    Keywords: Russian economy, anti-crisis economic policy, rent model
    JEL: P16 P26 P48
    Date: 2016
  5. By: Babili, Mahmoud; Al Somaya, Khitam; Badro, Bashar
    Abstract: This study deals with the economic factors contributing to the promotion of Syria’s tomato exports. These factors actually increase its competitiveness in international markets, particularly Iraqi and Russian. The research was conducted given the significant importance of tomato, compared to other agricultural exports, where tomato ranked first among Syrian agricultural exports in 2011 and 2012. In addition, the study focuses on the indicators of the international demand of Syrian tomato, as well as the main difficulties and challenges that face tomato exportation. The study of Composite Competitiveness Indicator (CCI), enabled us to draw several important results, which have multiple policy implications.
    Keywords: Composite Competitiveness Indicator, Syria, Tomato, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Marketing,
    Date: 2016–05
  6. By: Belke, Ansgar; Dreger, Christian; Dubova, Irina
    Abstract: The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. While large emerging countries recovered relatively quickly from the financial crisis, their performance deteriorated in the last years, despite the modest recovery in advanced economies. The higher divergence of business cycles is closely linked to the Chinese transformation. During the crisis, the Chinese fiscal stimulus prevented a decline in GDP growth not only in that country, but also in resource-rich economies. The Chinese shift to consumption-driven growth led to a decline in commodity demand, and the environment became more challenging for many emerging markets. This view is supported by Bayesian VARs specified for the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries. The results reveal a strong impact of international variables on GDP growth. In contrast to the other countries, China plays a crucial role in determining global trade and oil prices. Hence, the change in the Chinese growth strategy puts additional reform pressure on countries with abundant natural resources.
    Abstract: Obwohl sich große Schwellenländern recht schnell von dem Wachstumsschock in der Finanzkrise erholten, sind die Zuwachsraten des Bruttoinlandsprodukts in den letzten Jahren rückläufig, trotz der mittlerweile einsetzenden wirtschaftlichen Erholung in den Industrieländern. Die zunehmende Divergenz der Konjunkturzyklen ist eng mit der wirtschaftlichen Transformation in China verbunden. Zu Zeiten der Krise hat dortige Konjunkturpaket nicht nur einen Rückgang des Wachstums der Produktion in China verhindert, sondern hat für ressourcenreiche Länder einen Puffer bereitgestellt, weil die Rohstoffnachfrage aus China hoch geblieben ist. Mit dem Wechsel hin zu einem konsumorientierten Wachstumsmodell in China haben sich die Bedingungen für andere Länder geändert. Diese Interpretation stützt sich auf Bayesianische VAR-Modelle, die für die BRIC Staaten (Brasilien, Russland, Indien und China) spezifiziert werden. Die Ergebnisse zeigen zunächst, dass die Entwicklung an den internationalen Märkten wesentlich das Wachstum in den untersuchten Ländern beeinflusst. Im Gegensatz zu den anderen Ländern spielt jedoch China eine entscheidende Rolle für die Entwicklung von Welthandel und Ölpreisen. Die Änderung der chinesischen Wachstumsstrategie verschärft also den Druck auf andere Schwellenländer, strukturelle Reformen für ein nachhaltiges Wachstum einzuleiten.
    Keywords: business cycle divergence,Chinese transformation,Bayesian VARs
    JEL: F44 E32 C32
    Date: 2016
  7. By: 溝端, 佐登史; 岩﨑, 一郎
    Abstract: 本稿の目的は,筆者ら独自の大規模文献データベースを用いたメタ分析によって,ポスト 私有化期の所有構造と企業パフォーマンスの相関関係を実証的に検証した移行経済研究の 全体像を明らかにすることである。先行研究121点から抽出した総計2894の推定結 果を用いたメタ回帰モデルのベースライン推定は,他の所有主体との比較における外国投 資家の傑出した企業パフォーマンス効果を立証したものの,所有者タイプ間の差異に関す る一連の理論的仮説を包括的に実証するには至らなかった。移行国及び私有化政策の特異 性を明示的に制御した拡張メタ回帰モデルの推定結果は,研究対象国の所在地域,私有化 方式及び政策進行速度に見られる国家間の相違性が,既存研究の実証結果に顕れた不透明 性の原因であることを強く示唆した。なかでも,事後的な経営再建効果という観点から見 た,バウチャー私有化方式の有害性を明確に表した分析結果は,本稿の特筆すべき実証成 果である。
    Keywords: post-privatization ownership, firm performance, transition economies, meta-analysis, publication selection bias, Central and Eastern Europe, former Soviet Union
    JEL: D22 G32 G34 L25 P21 P31
    Date: 2016–07
  8. By: Irena Mikolajun (Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands); Richard Paap (Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands); Jean-Marie Viaene (Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands); Olga Zelenko (Argenta Spaarbank, the Netherlands)
    Abstract: The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 has led to the independence of fifteen new states. Twelve of these, including Ukraine, joined the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) whose goal was to form a common economic space with free movement of goods, labor and capital. Twenty five years later, CIS countries still face important trade policy choices, the implementation of which is conditional on the quality of governance and infrastructure. The evaluation of these policy choices gains therefore considerable importance. Using an unbalanced panel data set of bilateral export flows among 159 economies, we estimate the gravity model of trade using alternative estimation approaches that account for zeros in trade: Heckman, Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood and Martin-Pham Tobit. Our empirical results show robust outcomes and advocate importance of WTO membership, governance and effective distance (corrected for infrastructure). Using scenario analyses we assess counterfactuals for Ukraine and find, for example, that improved infrastructure would on average lead to a 22% increase in Ukrainian exports while improved governance would, ceteris paribus, almost double its trade. Most of these changes originate from the intensive margin of trade.
    Keywords: extensive/intensive margins; governance; gravity model; infrastructure; regional trade agreements; zero trade
    JEL: C23 F13 F14 F17 F31 F33 O43
    Date: 2016–07–28

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