nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2016‒06‒04
fourteen papers chosen by

  1. Межстрановые различия в душевых ВВП и производительности труда: роль капитала, уровня технологий и природной ренты By Zaytsev, Alexander
  2. Social Media and Protest Participation: Evidence from Russia By Enikolopov, Ruben; Makarin, Alexey; Petrova, Maria
  3. Development of Status Monitoring System of Non-bank Financial Institutions and Financial Markets of the Russian Federation By Andreev, Mikhail; Larionova, D.; Khromov, Mikhail
  4. Disentangling loan demand and supply shocks in Russia By Deryugina, Elena; Kovalenko, Olga; Pantina, Irina; Ponomarenko, Alexey
  5. The Implementation of the Concept of Sustainable Development in Russia By Komarov, Vladimir; Kotsyubinskiy, Vladimir
  6. Political Loyalty Vs Economic Performance: Evidence from Machine Politics in Russia’S Regions By Michael Rochlitz
  7. Expected returns and idiosyncratic risk: Industry-level evidence from Russia By Kinnunen, Jyri; Martikainen, Minna
  8. Evaluating underlying inflation measures for Russia By Deryugina, Elena; Ponomarenko, Alexey; Sinyakov, Andrey; Sorokin, Constantine
  9. Are the twin or triple deficits hypotheses applicable to post-communist countries? By Şen, Hüseyin; Kaya, Ayşe
  10. Anti-Western conspiracy thinking and expectations of collusion: Evidence from Russia and China By Libman, Alexander; Vollan, Björn
  11. Banking reform, risk-taking, and earnings quality – Evidence from transition countries By Fang, Yiwei; Hasan, Iftekhar; Li, Lingxiang
  12. 04-2016 Интервью академика РАН В.В.Ивантера Российской газете - Федеральный выпуск № 6939 (71) «Инфляция это просто подарок» 04 апреля 2016 г. By Ивантер В.В.
  13. The Effect of Labor Migration on the Diffusion of Democracy: Evidence from a Former Soviet Republic By Toman Barsbai; Hillel Rapoport; Andreas Steinmayr; Christoph Trebesch
  14. Mobility across generations of the gender distribution of housework By J. Ignacio Giménez-Nadal; Lucia Mangiavacchi; Luca Piccoli

  1. By: Zaytsev, Alexander
    Abstract: Using level accounting methodology this article examines sources of per capita GDP and labor productivity differences between Russia and developed and developing countries. Analysis concentrates on the assessment of role of the following determinants in per capita GDP gap: per hour labor productivity, number of hours worked per worker and labor-population ratio. The task of quantitative assessment of the role of such factors as human capital, capital-labor ratio and technological level (multifactor productivity) in Russia-to-developed-countries labor productivity gap is solved for the first time in literature. It is shown that labor productivity difference is the main reason of Russia`s lagging behind. Next, it is found that 41-49% of 3-time labor productivity gap between Russia and developed countries (US, Canada, Germany) is explained by lower capital-to-labor ratio and the latter 47-57% of gap is due to lower technological level (multifactor productivity, MFP). Human capital level in Russia is almost the same as in developed countries, so it explains only 2-5% of labor productivity gap. Exclusion of resource rent from GDP leads to more pessimistic estimates of Russian productivity: labor productivity drops from 35% to 27% to US level, while technological level (MFP) drops from 55% to 43% to US level in 2011 year. Methodological developments in data used (such as data on hours worked, human capital, resource rent and current PPPs) result in more precise estimates of Russian labor productivity and technological level.
    Keywords: per capita GDP, labor productivity gap, MFP level, international comparisons, level accounting, resource rent
    JEL: J24 O47 O57
    Date: 2015–04
  2. By: Enikolopov, Ruben; Makarin, Alexey; Petrova, Maria
    Abstract: Do new communication technologies, such as social media, reduce collective action problem? This paper provides evidence that penetration of VK, the dominant Russian online social network, affected protest activity during a wave of protests in Russia in 2011. As a source of exogenous variation in network penetration, we use information on the city of origin of the students who studied together with the founder of VK, controlling for the city of origin of the students who studied at the same university several years earlier or later. We find that a 10% increase in VK penetration increased the probability of a protest by 4.6%, and the number of protesters by 19%. Additional results suggest that social media has affected protest activity by reducing the costs of coordination, rather than by spreading information critical of the government. In particular, VK penetration increased pro-governmental support and reduced the number of people who were ready to participate in protests right before the protests took place. Also, cities with higher fractionalization of network users between VK and Facebook experienced fewer protests. Finally, we provide suggestive evidence that municipalities with higher VK penetration received smaller transfers from the central government after the occurrence of protests.
    Keywords: collective action; impact of technology adoption; political protests; social media
    JEL: D7 H0
    Date: 2016–05
  3. By: Andreev, Mikhail (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Larionova, D. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Khromov, Mikhail (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The object of study in this paper is the sector of non-bank financial institutions and financial markets of the Russian Federation. The authors proposed a multilevel system of synchronous indicators - indicators on which to judge the presence of the crisis on the 4 segments of the Russian financial market (stock, bond, cash, currency) and the existence of a crisis in the non-bank financial institutions - insurance companies, pension funds and management companies. For money market leading indicators are constructed. Improved methods of signal lights: LED signal flow tied to the local extreme point series. Calculated and analyzed delay intervals between rows of Russian statistics. The analysis of series of delay, firstly, justifies a typical sequence of crises in the Russian economy, and secondly, justifies the construction and predictive power of leading indicators. Based on the results established a system of monitoring of financial institutions and financial markets.
    Keywords: non-bank financial institutions, financial markets, indicators, monitoring, Russia
    Date: 2016–04–06
  4. By: Deryugina, Elena; Kovalenko, Olga; Pantina, Irina; Ponomarenko, Alexey
    Abstract: ​This article presents three alternative models for decomposing loan developments into components associated with changes in loan demand and supply fundamentals. Two models are based on macro data (error correction model and structural vector autoregression with sign restrictions) and one is based on bank-specific Bank Lending Survey results. We conclude that although loan growth in Russia converges to a long-run equilibrium determined by macroeconomic (demand) factors the convergence is likely to be driven by bank-side (supply) shocks. We identify large and unexplained supply shocks in loan fluctuations during the crisis of 2008–2009, signifying an impairment of credit markets. We also find contractionary shocks unrelated to demand fundamentals or balance sheet structures in 2013, although in general loan developments in 2013 and the first half of 2014 were not at all extraordinary.
    Keywords: loan demand, loan supply, cointegration, structural VAR, sign restrictions, Bank Lending Survey, Russia
    JEL: C32 E51 G21
    Date: 2015–03–05
  5. By: Komarov, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kotsyubinskiy, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: It is shown that the ideology and strategy of socio-economic development can be based on the paradigm of sustainable development. This implies an increase of the national wealth as stocks of capital (human, natural, physical, social, cultural and structural) in time. The paper proposes measures for Russia's transition to the paradigm of sustainable development.
    Keywords: sustainable development, ideology, strategy
    Date: 2016–03–10
  6. By: Michael Rochlitz (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Electoral authoritarian regimes often rely on patron-client relationships and political machines to win elections. While a growing literature has focused on the reasons why authoritarian regimes might want to hold elections, the economic consequences associated with the need to win elections have been less intensely studied. In this paper, we argue that while holding elections might offer authoritarian regimes a range of informational and other advantages in the short and medium run, the long-term economic costs can be significant and potentially destabilizing. This effect is especially strong in transition economies, where outdated and inefficient economic structures might be kept alive for political reasons. The theory is tested with an original dataset of gubernatorial appointments from a leading electoral authoritarian regime, the Russian Federation. We find that by incentivizing regional governors to use their political machines to win elections for the regime, the Kremlin effectively punishes those governors that are successfully developing their regional economies, with the effect being especially strong in regions where a high percentage of the population lives in Soviet-era single company towns.
    Keywords: authoritarian elections, political machines, bureaucratic incentives, patronclient relationships, economic growth
    JEL: M51 O43 P31 P52
    Date: 2016
  7. By: Kinnunen, Jyri; Martikainen, Minna
    Abstract: ​In this paper, we explore a relation between expected returns and idiosyncratic risk. As in many emerging markets, investors in the Russian stock market cannot fully diversify their portfolios due to transaction costs, information gathering and processing costs, and short-comings in investor protection. This implies that investors demand a premium for idiosyncratic risk – unique asset-specific risk plays a role in investment decisions. We estimate the price of idiosyncratic risk using MIDAS regressions and a cross-section of Russian industry portfolios. We find that idiosyncratic risk commands an economically and statistically significant risk premium. The results remain unaffected after controlling for global pricing factors and short-term return reversal.
    Keywords: idiosyncratic risk, industry risk, cross-sectional returns, MIDAS, Russia
    JEL: G12
    Date: 2015–10–30
  8. By: Deryugina, Elena; Ponomarenko, Alexey; Sinyakov, Andrey; Sorokin, Constantine
    Abstract: ​We apply several tests to the underlying inflation metrics used in practice by central banks and/or proposed in the scientific literature, in an attempt to find the best-performing indicators. We find that although there is no single best measure of underlying inflation, indicators calculated on the basis of dynamic factor models are generally among the best performers. These best performers not only outdid the simpler traditional underlying indicators (trimmed and exclusion-based measures) but also proved to be economically meaningful and inter-pretable.
    Keywords: underlying inflation, core inflation, monetary inflation, dynamic factor model, Russia
    JEL: E31 E32 E52 C32
    Date: 2015–08–18
  9. By: Şen, Hüseyin; Kaya, Ayşe
    Abstract: ​This study empirically examines the validity of the twin and triple deficits hypotheses using bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis and an annual panel data set of six post-communist countries (Russia, Poland, Ukraine, Romania, the Czech Republic, and Hungary) from 1994 to 2012. Our findings, based on panel data analysis under cross-sectional dependence and country-specific heterogeneity, support neither the twin deficits hypothesis nor its extended version, the triple deficits hypothesis, for any of the countries considered. In other words, we find no Granger-causal relationship between budget deficits and trade (or current account) deficits or among budget deficits, private savings-investment deficits, and trade deficits.
    Keywords: macroeconomic policy, fiscal policy, twin deficits, triple deficits, post-communist countries, transition economies, bootstrap panel granger causality test
    JEL: E60 F30 F32 H62
    Date: 2016–02–18
  10. By: Libman, Alexander; Vollan, Björn
    Abstract: Anti-Western conspiracies are frequently used by Governments to strengthen their power. We investigate the impact of conspiracy thinking on expectations of collusion among individuals in Russia and China. For this purpose, we conduct a novel laboratory experiment to measure expectations of collusion and several survey items related to conspiracy thinking. Our survey results indicate that anti-Western conspiracy thinking is widespread in both countries and correlates with distrust. We find a significant effect of anti-Western conspiracy thinking in China: Anti-Western conspiracy thinking correlates with lower expectations of collusion. We explain this result by stronger ingroup feeling emanating from the anti-Western sentiment. Our paper provides a first step in analyzing the economic implications of conspiracy thinking for society.
    Keywords: conspiracy thinking, Russia, China, trust, collusion experiments
    JEL: C91 D83 O17
    Date: 2015–04–29
  11. By: Fang, Yiwei; Hasan, Iftekhar; Li, Lingxiang
    Abstract: ​The dynamic banking reforms of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) following the collapse of the Soviet Union provide an ideal research setting for examining the causal effect of institutional development on financial reporting. Using five earnings quality measures, we consistently find that banking reform improves accounting quality and reduces earnings management incentives in the 16 transition countries considered. The results strongly hold in our within-country and difference-in-difference models, as well as in non-parametric analyses. We also find supporting evidence for the notion that excessive risk-taking of banks impairs earnings quality. As a result, banking reform improves earnings quality partially through its ability to curb risk-taking behavior. Publication keywords: earnings management, earnings quality, institutional development, bank risk-taking
    JEL: G18 M41 M48 G38 E50 G15
    Date: 2014–12–01
  12. By: Ивантер В.В. (Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования)
    Date: 2016–04–26
  13. By: Toman Barsbai (Kiel Institute for the World Economy - Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Hillel Rapoport (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Andreas Steinmayr (University of Munich); Christoph Trebesch (CESifo - Center for Economic Studies and Ifo for Economic Research - CESifo Group Munich, University of Munich)
    Abstract: Migration contributes to the circulation of goods, knowledge, and ideas. Using community and individual-level data from Moldova, we show that the emigration wave that started in the late 1990s strongly affected electoral outcomes and political preferences in Moldova during the following decade, eventually contributing to the fall of the last Communist government in Europe. Our results are suggestive of information transmission and cultural diffusion channels. Identification relies on the quasiexperimental context and on the differential effects arising from the fact that emigration was directed both to more democratic Western Europe and to less democratic Russia.
    Keywords: Emigration,political institutions,elections,social networks,information transmission,cultural diffusion
    Date: 2016–05
  14. By: J. Ignacio Giménez-Nadal (University of Zaragoza); Lucia Mangiavacchi (Universitat de les Illes Balears); Luca Piccoli (Universitat de les Illes Balears)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the relationship between the gender division of housework time of parents, with children living in the parental home, and that of the same children when they become adults and form their own families. Using the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS), we exploit its panel structure jointly with detailed information on children and parent’s time use, to analyse the time devoted by parents during their children’s adolescence (between 1994 and 1999) and that of the same children about ten years later (from 2006 to 2009). The results suggest that a greater involvement of fathers in the domestic activities traditionally done by mothers is related to a reduction in gender inequality in their children’s future families: father’s involvement in domestic activities has a significant impact on their sons’ time spent in the same activities. These findings shed light on the persistence of parental behaviour across generations.
    Keywords: Time Use; Housework, Gender Roles, Attitudes, Intergenerational Transmission, Russia
    JEL: D13 J16 J22 P13
    Date: 2016

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