nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2016‒05‒21
eighteen papers chosen by

  1. Academic Inbreeding and Research Productivity Of Russian Faculty Members By Olga Gorelova; Andrey Lovakov
  2. Обмен маркетологами как фактор успеха российских предприятий на мировом рынке By Medvedev, Evgeny
  3. Regional wheat price effects of extreme weather events and wheat export controls in Russia and Ukraine By Götz, Linde; Djuric, Ivan; Nivievskyi, Oleg
  4. 帝政ロシア・ソ連・現代ロシアの金融統計の発展 By 中村, 靖
  5. National or European Politicians? Gauging MEPs Polarity When Russia is Concerned By Anna A. Dekalchuk; Aleksandra Khokhlova; Dmitriy Skougarevskiy
  7. Ukrainian Export Diversification: Macro Level Analysis By Zubritskiy, Artur
  8. Интервью академика В.В.Ивантера журналу "Банки и деловой мир" № 12-2015 "Цена утраты доверия к национальной валюте" By Ивантер В.В.
  9. Wie beeinflussen die politische Lage und FDI das Wirtschaftswachstum? Empirische Evidenz für die Ukraine und Polen By Levoshko, Tamila
  10. Development Prospects for Transit Potential of Georgia By LEILA KADAGISHVILI
  11. Ценообразование жилой недвижимости в г. Омске By Abramovich, Albina
  12. Asymmetric volatility in European day-ahead power markets: A comparative microeconomic analysis By Erdogdu, Erkan
  13. Интервью академика В.В.Ивантера "Российской газете" - Федеральный выпуск 21 марта 2016 г. №6927(59 ) "Почем нынче реформы?" By Ивантер В.В.
  14. 04-2016 Интервью академика В.В.Ивантера Российской газете - Федеральный выпуск № 6950 (82) "У рынка тяжелая рука" от 18 апреля 2016 г. By Ивантер В.В.
  15. Parental Alcohol Consumption and Adult Children's Educational Attainment By Lucia Mangiavacchi; Luca Piccoli
  16. Exchange Rate Modeling: The Case of Ruble By Kuzmin, Anton
  17. The rise of the dual labour market: fighting precarious employment in the new member states through industrial relations (PRECARIR) Country report: Lithuania By Inga Blaziene; Boguslavas Gruzevskis
  18. 04-2016 видеозапись участия зам.директора ИНП РАН д.э.н. Д.Б.Кувалина в передаче телеканала Красная линия "Подъем с колен откладывается". 10.03.2016 By Кувалин Д.Б.

  1. By: Olga Gorelova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Andrey Lovakov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The literature on the consequences of academic inbreeding shows ambiguous results: some papers show that inbreeding positively influences research productivity, measured in the quantity and quality of publications, while others show the opposite effect. There are contradictory results both in studies of different countries and within countries. Such a variety of results makes it impossible to transfer the findings from one academic system to another, and in Russia this problem has been under explored. This paper focuses on the relationship between inbreeding and publication activity among Russian faculty members. The results, using Russian data from the Changing Academic Profession survey, showed no substantial effect of academic inbreeding on research productivity. Inbred and non-inbred faculty members do not differ substantially in terms of the probability of having publications, or how many, although for inbreds such probability is slightly higher. These results are robust for different operationalizations of inbreeding and measures of publication activity. However the absence of significant differences in the number of publications may not mean the absence of a difference in their quality. The possible explanations and limitations of the standard measures of research productivity are discussed.
    Keywords: Academic profession, Academic inbreeding, Research productivity, Faculty members, Russian higher education, Changing Academic Profession
    JEL: I23 I28
    Date: 2016
  2. By: Medvedev, Evgeny
    Abstract: В статье рассмотрен метод обмена маркетологами как фактор успеха российских предприятий на мировом рынке. Автор анализирует особенности обмена маркетологами для решения маркетинговых проблем организаций. Особое внимание уделено сути рассмотренного способа, вопросам, которые он решает и показаны его преимущества. The article describes the method of exchange of experts in marketing as a factor in the success of Russian companies on the world market. The author analyzes the peculiarities of the exchange of experts in marketing solutions for marketing problems organizations. Particular attention is paid to the essence of the considered method, the issues that it resolves, and showing its advantages.
    Keywords: маркетинг; маркетинговые проблемы; взаимовыгодный обмен; концепция «4P»; маркетинговая политика; конкурентоспособность; обмен маркетологами; прибыль; коучинг; продажи; продукт; спрос; потребитель; сбыт; цена; коммуникация; обучение; контакты; персонал; Marketing; marketing problems; mutually beneficial exchange; concept «4P»; marketing strategy; competitiveness; sharing in marketing; profit; coaching; sales; product; demand; consumer; marketing; price; communication; training; contacts; staff;
    JEL: M31
    Date: 2016–05–02
  3. By: Götz, Linde; Djuric, Ivan; Nivievskyi, Oleg
    Abstract: This paper further builds on the price transmission model framework of existing studies to identify domestic wheat price effects of wheat export controls. We explicitly take the fact into account that a harvest failure causes domestic price effects as well. Moreover, the analysis at the regional level provides further evidence of the functioning of export controls in a large country. Results suggest a pronounced regional heterogeneity in the strength of domestic price effects of the 2010/11 export ban in Russia. The wheat price dampening effects amount to up to 67 % and are strongest in the major wheat exporting region with direct access to the world market. This effect is transmitted to other regions by increased and reversed interregional trade flows. Contrasting, regional variation of export controls´ domestic price effects in Ukraine is rather small.
    Abstract: Dieser Artikel entwickelt den Preistransmissionsansatz aus der Literatur weiter, um inländische Weizenpreiseffekte von Weizenexportkontrollen zu identifizieren. In unserem Ansatz findet speziell Berücksichtigung, dass auch Mißernten selbst Preiseffekte auslösen. Die Ergebnisse der Analyse auf regionaler Ebene weisen auf eine starke regionale Heterogenität bezüglich der Stärke der Preiseffekte während des Exportverbots 2010/11 in Russland hin. Der den Weizenpreis dämpfende Effekt ist in der Region mit direktem Zugang zum Weltmarkt am Stärksten und beläuft sich auf 67 %. Dieser Effekt wurde durch stark ansteigenden interregionalen Weizenhandel, zum Teil auch im Rahmen von Handelsumkehrung, in die übrigen Regionen übertragen. Im Unterschied zu Russland ist die Variation des inländischen Preiseffekts von Exportkontrollen in der Ukraine deutlich schwächer.
    Keywords: export controls,international trade,agricultural trade policy,Russia,Ukraine,grain markets,food security,extreme weather events,climate change,Exportkontrollen,internationaler Handel,Agrarhandel,Agrarhandelspolitik,Russland,Ukraine,Getreidemärkte,Ernährungssicherung,extreme Wetterereignisse,Klimawandel
    JEL: C22 E30 Q11 Q17 Q18
    Date: 2016
  4. By: 中村, 靖
    Abstract: 金融統計の地理的対象はロシア帝国,ソ連,ロシア共和国の全体である.金融統計については,地域別統計情報を得ることが資料的,方法的に困難であるため,ロシアの地理的境界の変更を考慮した金融統計系列は作成できない.加えて,対象期間の大部分を占めるソ連期の金融制度が特殊であるため,金融統計指標を多国と比較することも,ロシア領域内で歴史的に比較することも困難である.ソ連期の社会主義のイデオロギーは貨幣と資本の廃絶を掲げていたのであり,後に述べるように短期間ではあるが銀行制度そのものが廃止されていた時期さえソ連期には存在していた.ソ連と市場経済の金融統計指標を比較する際には,慎重でなければならない.本稿では,まず統計指標の理解の前提となる各時期における金融制度の特徴を展望したのち,それぞれの時期の金融統計指標の特徴につい説明する., It is difficult to adjust financial statistical data to territorial changes and to compare them between Russia Empire, the Soviet Union, and Russia, mainly because the financial systems in those three periods were very different from each other and that in a market economy. There was even a period when the banking system was abolished entirely in the early 1920s, although the period lasted less than one year. The financial system in the Russian Empire developed slow in relative to that in other West-European countries and was characterized by strong influence of the government. This characteristic seemed to be carried over in to the Soviet Union until the 1960s. State budget was at the center of the Soviet financial system, while bank financing had only a minor and subsidiary role. Even in the minor bank financing, the main financial source of bank loans was government deposits. This pattern of Soviet finance changed in the mid-1960s: the weight of bank financing increased rapidly. Household deposits almost exclusively financed the increasing bank loan supply, while the government sector turned to be a net absorber of financial resources. This financial system seemed unsustainable and, indeed, it collapsed eventually. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian financial system returned to a financial system more or less ordinary to a market economy; it is, however, still in the process to establish a sound financial system. The financial data are fragmental and often incomparable, reflecting all these developments in the Russian financial system.
    Date: 2016–04
  5. By: Anna A. Dekalchuk (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Aleksandra Khokhlova (University of Tartu); Dmitriy Skougarevskiy (European University at St. Petersburg)
    Abstract: The European Parliament (EP) is viewed as a normal parliament. Voting patterns of its members (MEPs) are mainly aligned with transnational political groups, not national cleavages. Yet, it has been proven by many that MEP voting patterns are an outcome of conflicting pressures and a distorted indicator of their individual political orientations. In this study we rely on MEP written questions to the European Commission to measure the policy positions and their determinants. Using the universe of 100,000 such questions in 2002–2015 linked with MEP country and European Political Group affiliation data, we test whether one issue of high sensitivity to their domestic audiences — Russia — makes the MEPs take their nationality seriously and pay more attention to it regardless of their transnational partisan affiliations. We rely on supervised machine learning to uncover sentiment of every question asked on a negative-positive scale. Then we contrast the sentiment of questions related to Russia with the rest of questions conditional on party and national affiliation of the MEP asking the question. We find that (i) MEP question involving Russia is twice as negative in tonality as an average question, (ii) more variation in modality of Russia-related questions is explained by MEP national affiliation than her EPG. Our findings are robust to alternative methods of sentiment extraction and to controlling for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity of MEPs.
    Keywords: European politics, EU–Russia relations, European Parliament, written questions, text-as-data, sentiment mining.
    JEL: F55
    Date: 2016
  6. By: Konchyn, Vadym; Horban, Yuliia
    Abstract: The article is devoted to a retrospective analysis of transitional model of Ukrainian state’s economic behavior in the context of public goods’ distribution based on the Lala-Mint classification. The characteristics and nature of the rent of fractional oligarchic state as a stationary bandit in Ukraine are defined on the basis of the McGuire-Olson model. Using basic mathematical and graphical tools and also the results of built multiple regression models the potential effects of reducing or maintaining economic rent of the stationary bandit in Ukraine are reflected. The problem of economic bifurcation point was outlined for Ukrainian oligarchic state.
    Keywords: model of stationary bandit, economic point of bifurcation, fractional oligarchic state, facade democracy, distribution of public goods, economic interest of the state in the form of rent, behavioral models of the state, liberalization, European economic integration, people's capitalism.
    JEL: C32 E65 H10 H50 P27
    Date: 2016–04–25
  7. By: Zubritskiy, Artur
    Abstract: Complex microanalysis of Ukrainian goods exporting diversification on extensive and intensive basis was made. The national export structure deviations from the world one were formulated. Product codes groups characterized by the highest export concentration were detected.
    Keywords: Export, export diversification, export sector, export structure.
    JEL: F14
    Date: 2014–12–20
  8. By: Ивантер В.В. (Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования)
    Date: 2016–04–26
  9. By: Levoshko, Tamila
    Abstract: Die vorliegende Studie untersucht erstmalig für die Ukraine und Polen, wie der Wechsel der vertretenen Regierungspartei in der Region und die Absorptionsfähigkeit von FDI das regionale Wirtschaftswachstum beeinflussen. Die empirische Analyse erfolgt auf regionaler Ebene für den Zeitraum 2004-2012 anhand des Fixed-Effects-Schätzers. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der Wechsel der Regierungspartei in der Ukraine eine negative Auswirkung auf das Wirtschaftswachstum hat, in Polen hingegen eine positive. Es gibt eine schwache Evidenz, dass FDI einen Einfluss auf das Wirtschaftswachstum in der Ukraine haben. Der Effekt ist zwar positiv und nimmt bei einem hohen Handelsoffenheitsgrad zu, wird aber mit höherer Kriminalität abnehmen. In einer ukrainischen Region, in der die „pro-westliche“ Tymoshenko-Partei regiert, ist der Effekt von FDI auf das Wirtschaftswachstum um 0,28% höher als in einer Region, in der die „pro-russische“ Janukovych-Partei an der Regierungsspitze ist. In Polen dagegen ist keine wachstumsfördernde Wirkung von FDI festzustellen. Zudem hängt das Wirtschaftswachstum in der Ukraine und in Polen von der Regierungskonstellation und der Richtung der Partei ab.
    Keywords: Economic Growth; Foreign Direct Investments; Absorptive Capacity; Regime Change; Partisan Effects; Political Affiliation; Ukraine; Poland; Transition
    Date: 2016–05–17
  10. By: LEILA KADAGISHVILI (Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University)
    Abstract: The present paper studies the transit potential of Georgia and developing perspectives. It’s noted, that strengthening of transit energy corridor is of great importance for Georgia due to its strategically important geographical location. Thanks to its transit and energy corridors, Georgia gained the status of the country that supports balancing of economic interests between European and Asian countries. Favorability of the country’s geographical location has been proved and increased since the establishment of Baku-Supsa and Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipelines. Besides these two geo-economically strategic pipelines of international importance, there are two exceptionally important gas pipelines running through the territory of Georgia: the North-South or Shah Deniz and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipelines. Strategically important Georgian ports and terminals such as Batumi, Poti and Kulevi have direct connections with railway lines of Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Russia and Bulgaria. Development of port infrastructure is one of the priorities for Georgia. For this purpose, construction of deep-water port in Anaklia is of special importance. The government of Georgia has already called for investors to express interest in this project. Full utilization of its transit capacity will be beneficial for Georgia both from political and economic point of view. Due to its geopolitical location, Georgia turned out to be in the area of strategic interests of the US, EU, Russia, Turkey, Iran and China. As a result, developed countries have begun to actively cooperate with Georgia with the purpose of utilization of their predominant geopolitical and economic importance. Georgia is developing multilateral relations directed to global integration and the transit potential is one of the main preconditions of achieving competitiveness in these processes. The country has good opportunities for economic prosperity and rapid growth. The main task in this regard is to avoid threats by careful maneuvering and suggest mutually beneficial economic projects based on equal partnership to the international community. All this makes it possible to introduce economic, social, political, legal and other kinds of achievements of the West adapted with national values in Georgia. The paper concludes that due to its strategically important location Georgia is given an opportunity to become actively involved in global integration processes and use the benefit gained from these processes to ensure high rates of economic growth and increase in the competitiveness of the country.
    Keywords: geoeconomics, geopolitics, transit potential, integration, competitiveness.
  11. By: Abramovich, Albina
    Abstract: This article describes the causes of the changes of prices for residential real estate. The author examines the impact of various factors on the change in the value of real estate in various parts of the city of Omsk. В статье описаны причины изменения цен на жилую недвижимость. Автор рассматривает влияние различных факторов на изменение стоимости недвижимости в различных районах г. Омска.
    Keywords: residential real estate, internal factors, external factors, жилая недвижимость, внутренние факторы, внешние факторы.
    JEL: M31 R30
    Date: 2016
  12. By: Erdogdu, Erkan
    Abstract: This paper uses high frequency spot price data from fourteen wholesale electricity markets in Europe to analyze asymmetric volatility in European day-ahead power markets with Exponential GARCH (E-GARCH) and TARCH models. Our data set ranges from 1992 to 2015 and consists of approximately 926 thousand observations. As such, this paper constitutes the most extensive and comprehensive work conducted so far on European power markets, to the best of our knowledge. Unlike most of the literature that treats price as a continuous variable and attempts to model its trajectory, this paper adopts a unique approach and regards each hour in a day a separate market. The results show, in post-2008 period, the most expensive electricity is consumed in Turkey, Ireland and UK while the cheapest power is in Russia, Nordic countries and Czech Republic. Russia, Poland and Czech Republic have the least volatile markets while France, Ireland and Portugal have the most volatile ones. Volatility has decreased in many European countries in post-2008 period. Besides, we find magnitude effect is usually larger than the leverage effect, meaning that the absolute value of price change is relatively more important than the sign of the change (whether it is an increase or a decrease) to explain volatility in European day-ahead power markets. Moreover, the results imply there isn’t a uniform inverse leverage effect in electricity prices; that is, price increases are more destabilizing in some European markets (e.g. Poland, Slovenia, Ireland, Netherlands) than comparable price decreases but vice versa also holds true in some other countries (e.g. Portugal and France). Leverage (or inverse leverage) effect in post-2008 period is relatively stronger in Portugal, France and Ireland; but its impact is quite limited in Turkey and Germany. Furthermore, although the impact of seasonality on prices is obvious, a specific pattern cannot be identified. Finally, large changes in the volatility will affect future volatilities for a relatively longer period of time in Nordic countries, Ireland and the UK while changes in current volatility will have less effect on future volatilities in Czech Republic, Russia and Turkey.
    Keywords: asymmetric volatility; price modeling; European power markets; E-GARCH, TARCH
    JEL: D44 D47 L94 Q41
    Date: 2015–08–06
  13. By: Ивантер В.В. (Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования)
    Date: 2016–04–26
  14. By: Ивантер В.В. (Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования)
    Date: 2016–04–26
  15. By: Lucia Mangiavacchi (Universitat de les Illes Balears); Luca Piccoli (Universitat de les Illes Balears)
    Abstract: This study analyses whether parents' alcohol consumption can affect long run children's educational attainments. Using 19 waves of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS), where individuals and their families are followed from childhood to adulthood, this study analyses how parental alcohol consumption during childhood (between 1994 and 2001) may affect children's educational attainment about twelve years later (from 2006 to 2014). Panel estimations show that mother total grams of alcohol consumption during childhood is consistently negatively associated with adult children educational outcomes, as the probability of having an university degree, the highest level of education achieved and years of schooling. By using direct observation of past parental behaviour, the proposed empirical strategy avoids endogeneity issues that may arise when using contemporaneous retrospective information, while endogeneity deriving from unobserved characteristics determining both parental drinking and adult children educational attainment is addressed using an Hausman-Taylor estimator. This permits the identification of a negative causal relationship between mother alcohol consumption during childhood and long-run children's educational attainment. The study also explores the transmission mechanisms suggested by the literature, identifying a possible role for possible excessive prenatal exposure to alcohol, family disruption, health issues during childhood, parental care needs and intergenerational transmission of drinking habits of the father.
    Keywords: alcohol consumption, children education, parents problem-drinking, intergenerational transmissions, RLMS, Russia.
    JEL: D1 I1 I2 I3
    Date: 2016
  16. By: Kuzmin, Anton
    Abstract: The model of the equilibrium exchange rate of ruble is under construction on the basis of streams of the balance of payments of Russia taking into account trade conditions. Export-import transactions, factors of movement of the capital, a trade condition, indexes of the internal and export prices, and real gross domestic product, factors of elasticity of the foreign trade operations, decisions of microagents are used as base determinants in the model. In the process of creating the model it was justified a number of key internal dynamic functional dependencies were found that has allowed us to put the capital flows in the model on formal logical level, and, thus, to extend the model to the case of capital mobility. We discuss the relationship results from the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate in the framework of the author's conceptual approach to the assessment of the equilibrium exchange rate based on international flows (IFEER). The technique of adjustment of model internal parametres is offered with a view of macroeconomic regulation of the exchange rate of ruble. Based on the modeling results we built the analysis of the dynamics of the nominal exchange rate of ruble in 2013- 2015.
    Keywords: Ethe equilibrium exchange rate, exchange rate of ruble, the balance of payments, a trade condition, the macroeconomic policy, capital streams
    JEL: E44 E52 F31 F37 F38 F41 F47
    Date: 2015–09–01
  17. By: Inga Blaziene; Boguslavas Gruzevskis
    Abstract: This report was financed by European Comission grant no. VS/2014/0534.
    Date: 2016–04–28
  18. By: Кувалин Д.Б. (Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования)
    Date: 2016–04–26

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.