nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2016‒05‒08
seven papers chosen by

  1. The Effect of Sanctions on Finnish Exports to Russia By Berg-Andersson, Birgitta; Kotilainen, Markku
  2. The impact of international trade on environmental quality in transition countries: evidence from time series data during 1991-2013. By Halicioglu, Ferda; Ketenci, Natalya
  3. The Writers as Popularizers of the Knowledge About the Slavic Peoples. The Case of Multivolume “Picturesque Russia” in the Last Quarter Of the XIX Century By Leonid E. Gorizontov
  4. The Role of Oil Prices, Real Effective Exchange Rate and Inflation in Economic Activity of Russia: An Empirical Investigation By Izatov, Asset
  6. Determinants of Trade Duration of Kazakhstan's Wheat Exports By Imamverdiyev, Nizami; Anders, Sven; Glauben, Thomas; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Prehn, Soren
  7. Improving Cotton Production and Crop Diversification in Uzbekistan: Tradable Cotton Production Targets By Khasanov, Shavkat; Djanibekov, Nodir

  1. By: Berg-Andersson, Birgitta; Kotilainen, Markku
    Abstract: Finland’s merchandise exports to Russia have decreased by 44 per cent between 2012 and 2015. Major part of this is due to the collapse of the oil prices and due to the related depreciation of the Russian Rouble. Both have weakened the purchasing power of Russian enterprises and households, especially with respect to foreign goods and services. The sanctions set due to the Ukrainian crisis have strengthened this decline. The sanctions set by the EU towards Russia have had a rather small effect on Finnish exports to Russia. This is already due to the fact that the share of the sanctioned product groups was small before the crisis, just about a half of a per cent. The counter sanctions set by Russia towards food exports of the EU countries have in turn had a much greater negative effect. The share of the sanctioned product groups was about 5 per cent of Finnish goods exports to Russia. These sanctions have had a substantial negative effect on the exports and profitability of the dairy and meat industries as well as of agriculture.
    Date: 2016–04–14
  2. By: Halicioglu, Ferda; Ketenci, Natalya
    Abstract: This research presents first empirical time series evidence of the impact of international trade on environmental quality in the case of transition countries. The linkages between international trade and environmental quality are well established both theoretically and empirically in the literature. However, the empirical evidence relating to transition countries is non-existent as far as this study is concerned. Thus, our research aims at filling this gap. To this extent, fifteen transition countries are selected in order to test the impact of international trade on environmental quality. An econometric model between carbon emissions, energy use, income and trade openness is formed. The econometric model was estimated via ARDL approach to cointegration and GMM procedures. The econometric results from both econometric techniques support the existence of the EKC hypothesis only in three transition countries: Estonia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. As for the impact of trade on environmental quality, the econometric results from both techniques vary in different transition countries. To this extent, the displacement hypothesis is validated in the case of Armenia, Estonia, Latvia, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. The paper also discusses policy implications of the empirical results as well as offering policy recommendations.
    Keywords: International trade, Environmental quality, Cointegration, Transition countries
    JEL: C22 F1 F18
    Date: 2015
  3. By: Leonid E. Gorizontov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The multi-volume edition “Picturesque Russia. Our Fatherland in its spatial, historic, ethnographic, economic and everyday life sense” (1879–1901, in 12 volumes and 19 books) contains a lot of data about the Slavic peoples – Russians, Ukrainians, Belorussians and Poles. Most of the essays on different regions were prepared by the men of letters often simultaneously known as novelists, journalists, literary critics, historians and ethnographers. The study analyses their choice by the publishers, literary reputations in the mid-1880s, national and political affiliations. A special attention is paid to the holders of various ethnic and regional identities among the authors, as well as to some specific roots and consequences of the unique large-scale project under review.
    Keywords: “Picturesque Russia”, writers, novelists, journalists, literary scholars, historians, literary reputations, late Russian Empire, regions, Russians, Ukrainians, Belorussians, Poles, Slavic studies
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2016
  4. By: Izatov, Asset
    Abstract: In this study we employ an empirical analysis to observe the impact of changes in inflation rate, real exchange rate instability and oil price fluctuations on the level of real economic activity of Russia. Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) was represented and estimated along with Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). There was revealed the existence of long-run cointegration between the economic activity, the real effective exchange rate and oil prices over the 01/1995-03/2015 period. In addition, the effect of these factors on the economic output is positive. However, the cointegration with the inflation was not present in the long-run over the sample period. While, in the short-run only real effective exchange rate had an effect on the economy of Russia. The important feature of this research is that there was revealed an automatic adjustment mechanism in the model, which helps the economy of Russia to reach its equilibrium after the shock. The paper insists on implementation of the relevant reforms to the fiscal policy to diversify and strengthen the economy.
    Keywords: macroeconomics empirical oil exchange inflation economy Russia monetary fiscal policy
    JEL: B22 C01 F62
    Date: 2015–11–25
  5. By: Irisbekova Mavluda
    Abstract: As a double land-locked country Uzbekistan craves for any additional opportunity to have extra more transport infrastructure in order make both export and import process easy and cost-effective. It is clear that Soviet transport legacy that was designed in a Moscow-centric manner is not sufficient at all for satisfying country’s wider and diverse needs in transportation, e.g. more comfortable access to sea ports. The Trans-Asian Railway project that in its very sense assumes connecting almost all countries of such a huge continent as Asia, including Uzbekistan, with each other on the one hand and with Europe on other, means a lot for this young nation that is actively growing with average GDP growth of %7 a year and intensive attraction of foreign direct investments. Key words: railway, trans-asian railway, transport infrastructure, investments
    Date: 2016–03
  6. By: Imamverdiyev, Nizami; Anders, Sven; Glauben, Thomas; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Prehn, Soren
    Abstract: The objective of this study is to analyze the trade duration patterns of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports between 1995 and 2012. Using 4-digit HS code trade flow data we employ a discrete-time duration framework and probit models controlling for unobserved heterogeneity across bilateral trade relationships. The empirical results indicate that trade cost, local production factors, price competitiveness and experience significantly explain the short duration of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports. We find that the stability and thus sustainability of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports critically depends on maintaining good trade relationships and free of export restrictions with traditional trading partners, especially post-Soviet Union economies.
    Keywords: Wheat exports, trade duration analysis, probit, Kazakhstan, Crop Production/Industries, C41, Q17,
    Date: 2015
  7. By: Khasanov, Shavkat; Djanibekov, Nodir
    Abstract: Cotton production contributes considerably to Uzbekistan’s export earnings. The various reforms implemented to increase the operational autonomy of agricultural producers considered the stability of cotton production, yet often at the expense of farm incomes. Options for improving the farm incomes can be achieved through modifications of the cotton policy settings. Such options are analyzed by replacing the present area-based yield prescriptions by tradable cotton targets between cotton-growing farms. As part of ongoing research, the findings indicate the scope for promoting such modification to tradable production targets as it would potentially increase farm revenues, cotton yields, crop diversification, and sustainable water use at the same level of cotton output as today. The net benefits would increase due to the difference in land fertility and location to irrigation canal between contracted farms. However, the sustainability of such policy modifications would depend on strong mechanisms for price negotiation and conflict resolution
    Keywords: tradable production targets, pseudo-market price, optimization model, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, C61, Q12, Q18,
    Date: 2015

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