nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2015‒12‒28
seven papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Professors and Bankers: Russia’S State Bank Charters of 1860 and 1894, Economic Expertise and Public Opinion By Igor A. Khristoforov
  2. The Decision-Making Process in Punishment Imposition: Four Factors of Public Perception in Russia By Zinaida M. Pogosova; M Nizhnik; Henry Penikas
  3. 12-2015 Комментарий академика В.В.Ивантера "Российской газете" 07 декабря 2015 г. (№276) "Где найти ресурсы для экономического роста" By Ивантер В.В.
  4. Momentum in Imperial Russia By William Goetzmann; Simon Huang
  5. Does FDI Crowd out Domestic Investment in Transition Countries? By Cristina JUDE
  6. Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the Economic Growth in the Former USSR By Ron W Nielsen

  1. By: Igor A. Khristoforov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper considers the role of public opinion and economic expertise in planning and realization of two important Russia’s financial reforms of the nineteenth century: the creation of the State Bank in 1860 and its reform in 1894. It aims at expanding the limits of institutional history and complimenting it with the analysis of ideological and political context. The focus on the images of «ideal» economic development that existed in public imagination as well as in expert opinion enables to look at the financial policy of the 1860s-1890s from a new prospective.
    Keywords: Russian Empire, banking system, reforms, economic expertise.
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2015
  2. By: Zinaida M. Pogosova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); M Nizhnik (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Henry Penikas (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The “ignorance of law” defense is often used as an argument to decrease the degree of punishment assigned to a convicted criminal. Previous research has identified that the degree of punishment is, inter alia, impacted by the perceived morality of the action and the convicted criminal’s knowledge of the law. Compared to previous findings, the current paper contributes to the field of study in three principal ways. First, it analyzes Russian respondents and their perceptions of morality of action (previous studies have dealt with American respondents). Second, the present paper traces the distinction between lawyers’ perceptions and those of laypeople. Third, the quantitative impact of the ignorance of law defense on a trial group is traced by considering the interrelationship of factors determining the ultimate degree of punishment a hypothetical criminal would be sentenced to.
    Keywords: public opinion, policy-making, penal policy, punishment theory, just deserts, deterrence, consequentialism, utilitarianism, ignorance of law defense, morality perception, probit.
    JEL: K42
    Date: 2015
  3. By: Ивантер В.В. (Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования)
    Date: 2015–12–14
  4. By: William Goetzmann; Simon Huang
    Abstract: Some of the leading theories of momentum have different empirical predictions about its profitability conditional on market composition and structure. The overconfidence explanation provided by Daniel, Hirshleifer, and Subrahmanyam (1998), for example, predicts lower momentum profits in markets with more sophisticated investors. The information-based theory of Hong and Stein (1999) predicts lower momentum profits in markets with lower informational frictions. The institutional theory of Vayanos and Woolley (2013) predicts lower momentum profits in markets with less agency. In this paper, we use a dataset from a major 19th century equity market to test these predictions. Over this period, there was no evidence of delegated management in Imperial Russia. A regulatory change in 1893 made speculating on the St. Petersburg stock market more accessible to small investors. We find a momentum effect that is similar in magnitude to those in modern markets and stronger during the post-1893 period than during the pre-1893 period, consistent with the overconfidence theory of momentum.
    JEL: G10 G12 G14 G23 N2
    Date: 2015–11
  5. By: Cristina JUDE
    Date: 2015
  6. By: Ron W Nielsen
    Abstract: Historical economic growth in countries of the former USSR is analysed. It is shown that Unified Growth Theory is contradicted by the data, which were used, but not analysed, during the formulation of this theory. Unified Growth Theory does not explain the mechanism of economic growth. It explains the mechanism of Malthusian stagnation, which did not exist and it explains the mechanism of the transition from stagnation to growth that did not happen. Unified Growth Theory is full of stories but it is hard to decide which of them are reliable because they are based on unprofessional examination of data. The data show that the economic growth in the former USSR was never stagnant but hyperbolic. Industrial Revolution did not boost the economic growth in the former USSR. Unified Growth Theory needs to be revised or replaced by a reliable theory to reconcile it with data and to avoid creating the unwarranted sense of security about the current economic growth.
    Date: 2015–12
  7. By: Maryna Tverdostup; Jaan Masso
    Abstract: This paper extends the earlier literature on the effects of return migration by studying selection and labour market performance in terms of the wages of young returnees in particular. The topic is motivated by young people’s various labour market issues and their high exposure to the consequences of the recent financial crisis. We use the Estonian Labour Force Survey data and the Estonian Population and Housing Census 2011 data in combination with the Estonian Tax and Customs Office data on individual payroll taxes. The econometric analysis focuses on the selection to temporary migration and estimation of wage premium to return, along with the decomposition of the returnee-stayer wage gap using the Oaxaca-Blinder approach and an investigation of wage premium dynamics over time after the return. The results generally show higher returns from temporary labour migration for young people relative to older people, and among youth the share of the unexplained fraction of the wage premium is also higher. These results imply a stronger role of experience gained abroad on earnings for youth.
    Keywords: return migration, labour market outcomes, Central and Eastern Europe
    JEL: F22 J31 J61
    Date: 2015

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