|
on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Shastitko, Andrey E.; Golovanova, Svetlana V. |
| Abstract: | This paper demonstrates that even established and verified facts of agreements among producers are not a sufficient condition for cartel identification and, as a consequence, prosecution of agreement participants. Such requires looking at institutional details and the wider context of these and similar appearances or occurrences of documents and actions when qualifying the actions of market participants and their effects. This paper discusses a recent antitrust case brought against Russian manufacturers of large diameter pipes (LDPs) that examined supposedly abusive practices by these firms that were contrary to the law on the Protection of Competition, which prohibits market division. The case under consideration illustrates the importance of investigating institutional details when qualifying the actions of market participants and their effects. An analysis of the materials in this case using modern economic theory indicates that the presence of collusion is inconsistent with the active participation of the main consumer of LDPs in that agreement. The chosen format for the cooperation between pipe manufacturing companies and OJSC Gazprom, namely indicative planning, may be explained from the perspective of reducing contract risk in an environment characterized by large-scale private investments. |
| Abstract: | Эта статья демонстрирует, что даже установленные и проверенные факты соглашений между производителями не являются достаточным условием для идентификации картеля и, как следствие, судебного преследования участников соглашения. Это требует внимания к институциональным деталям и в более широком контексте этих и подобных выступлений или вхождений документов и действий при квалификации действий участников рынка и их последствий. Эта статья обсуждает недавнее антимонопольное дело, возбужденное против российских производителей труб большого диаметра (ТБД), о якобы имевших место злоупотреблений этими фирмами, противоречащих закону о защите конкуренции, который запрещает передел рынка. Рассматриваемый случай иллюстрирует важность исследования институциональных детали при квалификации действий участников рынка и их последствий. Анализ материалов в этом случае с помощью современной экономической теории показывает, что наличие сговора несовместимо с активным участием главного потребителя ПРМ в этом соглашении. Выбранный формат для сотрудничества между производственными компаниями и ОАО Газпром, а именно индикативного планирования, могут быть объяснены с точки зрения снижения риска контракта в среде, характеризующейся крупномасштабными частными инвестициями. |
| Keywords: | collusion,antitrust policy,credible commitments,indicative planning,contract risk |
| JEL: | K21 B52 |
| Date: | 2014–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:122048&r=cis |
| By: | Tapchieva, Tatiana |
| Abstract: | In this article author analyses dynamics of revenues and expenditures of Russian budgetary system, rate of the external and internal public debt of the Russian Federation and gives main reasons of changes in these elements of centralized finances during the period of 2005-2014. |
| Keywords: | Russian budgetary system, external and internal public debt of the Russian Federation, transition period, centralized finances, financial system |
| JEL: | H61 H62 H63 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:67900&r=cis |
| By: | Evgeniya Polyakova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Larisa Smirnykh (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Using nationally representative data (RMLS-NRU HSE) from 2004-2012, this paper examines sectoral segregation between immigrant (persons with an immigration background) and native workers and its impact on the earning differential in Russia. This is the first micro-level study in Russia about sectoral segregation and the earning gap between natives and immigrants under its influence. In this study we analyze the determinants of the choice of sector, estimate earning differences between natives and immigrants, define the Duncan index of dissimilarity and measure the impact of sectoral segregation on the earning differential between natives and immigrants using Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition.Our results show that sectoral segregation in the Russian labor market gradually increased from 2004 to 2012. We find there are significant earning differences between immigrants and natives. Most of this difference cannot be explained by productivity-related differences between the two groups. This implies that immigrants can experience labor market discrimination. After partly assessing the self-selection of worker’s using the extended decomposition method (Brown et al., 1980) our empirical results demonstrate that the sectoral segregation (or voluntary distribution across sectors) plays a considerable role in the earning differential between natives and migrants in Russia. |
| Keywords: | immigrant workers, sectoral segregation, employment, earning differentials, labor demand, Russia |
| JEL: | J61 J15 J21 J31 J23 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:110/ec/2015&r=cis |
| By: | Amat Adarov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Serkan Çiçek (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vladimir Gligorov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Summary The economic outlook in the countries of Central East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) will improve in 2015–2017 with the forecast average economic growth rate close to 3% – some 1.5 pp. higher than the expected euro area average growth. Only the CIS countries and Ukraine will be an exception to this trend. Household consumption, aided by labour market improvements and low inflation, will be the main driver of growth. These are the main results of the newly released medium-term macroeconomic forecast by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw), revising slightly upwards the growth projections relative to the Spring 2015 forecast. Sub-regional growth trends vary greatly. At one end of the spectrum, the Central European countries are expected to continue their robust recovery with growth rates in the order of 2-4% per annum over the forecast horizon (2015–2017). At the other end, the prospects facing the CIS countries are particularly poor unless global commodity prices recover, both Russia and Belarus already tumbling into a deep recession (expected growth in 2015 -3.7% and -3.8%, respectively), while Kazakhstan is following suit with a deceleration in growth (1.5% in 2015). Whereas economic activity in the Baltic countries suffered this year on account of their exposure to Russia, they appear to be resilient and recovery is still on track with growth in the medium term expected to be in the range of 1.5-3%. Overall, Southeast Europe displays improving, but irregular growth tendencies, in many cases accompanied by macroeconomic imbalances and deep structural problems. Serbia and Croatia, the worst performers in the group, will enjoy hardly any growth at all in 2015 (0.1% and 0.7%, respectively), while growth in other countries will be in the order of 2-4%. The situation in Ukraine remains particularly fragile and serious downside risks persist, although there are signs that the recession, much deeper than originally anticipated (with output projected to drop by -11.5% this year), might be bottoming out. Net exports are providing only a limited, if at all positive, contribution to growth, while household consumption, supported by labour market improvements and low inflation due to weak commodity prices, is coming to the fore as the main engine of growth across most of the CESEE region; consumption is expected to remain among the key drivers in the medium term as well. At the same time, private investment remains the much-needed missing link in the mechanism essential to rekindling sustainable output growth in the CESEE region, and public investment may prove to be an important complementary factor. In this regard, the EU structural and investment funds under the 2014–2020 Multiannual Financial Framework will be instrumental as a source of co-funding. Inflation remains very weak across the CESEE region, hovering at near-zero levels on account of low commodity prices, with the exception of the CIS countries, Turkey and Ukraine, whose inflation spiked owing to exchange rate pass-through effects that followed sharp currency depreciations in 2014–2015, as well as country-specific factors, such as the food embargo in Russia and the rise in utility tariffs in Ukraine. The external environment is only moderately supportive. As the multi-speed recovery of the world economy continues in 2015, driven primarily by advanced economies and accompanied by poor performance in large emerging market economies, manifold external risks also arise that could jeopardise the recovery of the CESEE region, including geopolitical tensions associated with the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East, a slowdown in major emerging markets, normalisation of monetary policy in the USA and low commodity prices (a negative shock for the CIS group). Special sections of the forecast report focus on some of the potential risks that have attracted much attention since the beginning of the year, including the refugee crisis in Europe, recession and import-substitution policy in Russia, the Volkswagen scandal, the economic slowdown in China and the implications of the Greek crisis. With the exception of the CIS countries and Ukraine, however, the CESEE countries appear to be rather resilient to date. |
| Keywords: | CESEE, economic forecast, Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe, Western Balkans, new EU Member States, CIS, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Turkey, growth divergence, external risks, macroeconomic imbalances, consumption-led growth, unemployment, inflation, competitiveness, public debt, private debt, current account |
| JEL: | C33 C50 E20 E29 F34 G01 G18 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:autumn2015&r=cis |
| By: | Idrisov, Georgij I.; Taganov, B. |
| Abstract: | The article covers main stages of integration processes in the CIS area since its formation. We analyzed the specifics of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) in the CIS. We prepared an exhaustive list of expired and currently effective PTAs in the CIS area, taking into account the initial levels of exemptions and the dynamics of their cancellations. We analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively the economic aspects of PTAs. We discussed further integration agenda of the Russian Federation and a role of PTAs as a tool of international economic integration. |
| Abstract: | В статье рассматриваются основные этапы интеграционных процессов на пространстве СНГ со времени его формирования. Мы проанализировали специфику преференциальных торговых соглашений (ПТС) в странах СНГ. Мы подготовили исчерпывающий перечень истекших и в настоящее время эффективных ПТС на пространстве СНГ, принимая во внимание начальные уровни изъятий и динамику их отмены. Мы проанализировали качественно и количественно экономические аспекты ПТС. Мы обсудили дальнейшую повестку дня интеграции Российской Федерации и роль ПТС в качестве инструмента международной экономической интеграции. |
| Keywords: | trade,trade integration,preferential trade agreements,CIS |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:121961&r=cis |
| By: | Taganov, Boris |
| Abstract: | In this paper we consider relationship between foreign direct investment (as one of the mechanisms of technological development) and long-term economic growth. In the beginning we discuss the role of FDI in the increase of total factor productivity from the viewpoint of endogenous growth theory. We then turn to the comparative analysis of FDI inflow to Russia and other countries broken down by economic industries. We find that Russian industries capable of increasing TFP and positively impacting the long-term economic growth are significantly underinvested relative to other countries. Since, in our opinion, pre-existing sources of Russia’s economic growth are almost completely exhausted, we suggest several economic policy measures aimed at attracting FDI in Russia and improve the absorptive capacity of the country. |
| Abstract: | В этой статье мы рассмотрим отношения между прямыми иностранными инвестициями (в качестве одного из механизмов технологического развития) и долгосрочным экономическим ростом. В начале мы обсудим роль ПИИ в повышении общей производительности факторов с точки зрения теории эндогенного роста. Затем мы обратимся к сравнительному анализу притока ПИИ в России и других странах с разбивкой по отраслям экономики. Мы считаем, что российская промышленность, способная к повышению СФП и положительно влияющая на долгосрочный экономический рост, испытывает значительный дефицит инвестиций по сравнению с другими странами. Так, на наш взгляд, уже существующие источники роста российской экономики почти полностью исчерпаны, мы предлагаем ряд мер экономической политики, направленных на привлечение ПИИ в Россию и улучшение поглощающей способности страны. |
| Keywords: | FDI,TFP,economic growth,economic policy,human capital |
| JEL: | E66 F21 O15 O43 |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:122049&r=cis |
| By: | Artamonova, Alyona; Mitrofanova, Ekaterina |
| Abstract: | Declining marriage rates and increasing cohabitation rates in modern Russia have become a trend that many scholars have observed and tried to explain through the perspective of the Second Demographic Transition. Our research is another attempt to understand these changes and to answer the question on the nature of cohabitation in Russia. We aimed to find the difference between some patterns of matrimonial events and to define the nature of cohabitations in Russia. For these purposes, we applied descriptive statistics and Event History Analysis. We also suggested a logical scheme of the ways of development of the first cohabitations. We observed the opposite trends of matrimonial behavior: the younger Russian people are, the higher their probability of starting of the first cohabitation and the lower their risk to have the first marriage. Our analysis showed that a cohabitation is not yet a complete alternative to marriage, but it has a possibility of becoming it for younger generations. |
| Abstract: | Снижение количества браков и увеличение количества сожительств в современной России стало тенденцией, которую многие ученые наблюдали и пытались объяснить через призму второго демографического перехода. Наше исследование является еще одной попыткой понять эти изменения и ответить на вопрос о природе сожительства в России. Мы стремились найти разницу между некоторыми моделями супружеских событий и определить характер сожительств в России. Для этих целей, мы применили описательную статистику и анализ истории событий. Мы также предложили логическую схему путей развития первых сожительств. Мы наблюдали противоположные тенденции супружеского поведения: чем моложе русские, тем выше вероятность совместного проживания и ниже риск первого брака. Наш анализ показал, что сожительство не полная альтернатива браку, но у него есть возможность стать таковой для младших поколений. |
| Keywords: | marriage,Russia,life course,cohabilitation,Event History Analysis |
| Date: | 2014–10–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:122050&r=cis |
| By: | Taganov, Boris |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we assess the value of Russia’s preferential imports from all trade partners and CIS countries in particular. Total value of preferential imports in Russia (both duty free imports as well as imports subject to the discounted MFN duty under GSP) is equal to ca 12% (37.8 USD bln.) of the total imports, of which ca 7.4% accounted for imports of Russia from CIS countries. We should note that ca 2.5% of preferential imports of Russia under GSP treatment was not imported duty free, but was subject to a 25% discount to MFN duty. |
| Abstract: | В этой статье, мы оцениваем стоимость льготного импорта России из всех торговых партнеров и в частности - из стран СНГ. Общая стоимость льготного импорта в России (как дьюти-фри импорт, так и импортльготный импорт в режиме наибольшего благоприятствования под GSP) равна приблизительно 12% (37,8 млрд. долл.) от общего объема импорта, из которых около 7,4% приходится на импорт России из стран СНГ. Отметим, что приблизительно 2,5% преференциального импорта России в режиме GSP не ввозится беспошлинно, однако имеет скидку в 25% в режиме наибольшего благоприятствования. |
| Keywords: | trade preferences,preferential trade agreement,MFN,GSP |
| JEL: | F13 F15 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:121997&r=cis |
| By: | Ponomarev, Yuri; Trunin, Pavel V.; Uljukaev, Aleksej V. |
| Abstract: | The article provides estimates of short-run and medium-run exchange rate pass-through into domestic prices in Russia during the period of 2000–2012 using vector error correction model. Exchange rate pass-through asymmetry estimates, its assessments on different sub-periods and exchange rate volatility effect on pass-through are also provided. |
| Abstract: | В статье приводятся оценки краткосрочной перспективе и обменного курса среднесрочной перспективе сквозной в внутренних цен в России в период 2000-2012 с использованием вектора коррекции ошибок модели. Обменный курс сквозного асимметрия оценкам, его оценки по различным суб-периодов и курсовой волатильности влияния на сквозного также предоставляются. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate pass-through,asymmetry of exchange rate pass-through,exchange rate volatility,inflation,monetary policy,vector error correction model |
| JEL: | C32 E31 E52 F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:121960&r=cis |
| By: | Kalabichina, Irina E.; Tyndik, Alla |
| Abstract: | This article is devoted to investigation current demographic policy in Russia impact on fertility of different educational groups. Authors use qualitative and quantitative data. Quantitative data for this analysis come from the Gender and Generation Survey in Russia (2004, 2007, 2011 waves). Semi-structured interview method (Moscow, 2010) was used to assess the cognitive and emotional aspects of fertility behaviour (to give birth the next child). One of the important results of this study that Russian population could not be satisfated with current demographic policy. Moreover, higher educated people have stronger demand for family-work measures to reach desired family size. People with higher education estimate influence of existing measures lower as a whole, but influence of potential measures (directed on combination of career and parenthood) the estimated higher. |
| Keywords: | demographic policy,fertility,Russia |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J18 |
| Date: | 2014–02–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:121850&r=cis |
| By: | Kovalev, Vjacheslav V. |
| Abstract: | According to numerous studies of Russian psychologists, the normal interpersonal relationships in the team contributes to high labor productivity, prevent conflict situations, have a direct impact on the quality of the joint venture. This is due to the fact that the balanced interpersonal relationships positive emotional support to the team. It is estimated that productivity growth is directly dependent on the good mood and working up to 5-10% of the average. Conversely, a bad mood by the same amount from the average level reduces productivity. Thus, depending on the mood of the working, it can range from 10 to 20%. Consequently, the working mood can be regarded as an important industrial factor. Mutual respect and mutual attention to the individual staff member present in normal morale and relationships are the norm. |
| Abstract: | По данным многочисленных исследований российских психологов, нормальные межличностные отношения в команде способствует высокой производительности труда, предотвращению конфликтных ситуаций, оказывают непосредственное влияние на качество совместной деятельности. Это связано с тем, что сбалансированные отношения между людьми положительно эмоционально поддерживают команду. Считается, что рост производительности труда напрямую зависит от хорошего настроения и работает до 5-10% в среднем. И наоборот, плохое настроение снижает производительность на столько же процентов от среднего уровня. Таким образом, в зависимости от настроение работы, он может колебаться от 10 до 20%. Следовательно, рабочее настроение можно считать важным фактором деятельности. Взаимное уважение и взаимное внимание к индивидуальной морали и отношениям сотрудника являются нормой. |
| Keywords: | interpersonal relationships,collective |
| Date: | 2014–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:121962&r=cis |
| By: | Benzell, Seth G.; Goryunov, Eugene; Kazakova, Marija; Kotlikoff, Laurence J.; LaGarda, Guillermo; Nesterova, Kristina; Zubarev, Andrey |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a large-scale, dynamic life-cycle model to simulate Russia’s demographic and fiscal transition under favorable and unfavorable fossil-fuel price regimes. The model includes Russia, the U.S., China, India, the EU, and Japan+ (Japan plus Korea). The model predicts dramatic increases in tax rates in the U.S., EU, India, and Russia. Indeed, the increases are so large as to question their political feasibility let alone their actual collection given the potential for tax avoidance and tax evasion. |
| Keywords: | economy,transitions |
| JEL: | F0 F20 H0 H2 H3 J20 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:121939&r=cis |
| By: | Mikhailova, Tatiana |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of forced labor relocation in GULAG, and the losses during the WWII on the long-term dynamics of city growth in the USSR. The main goal is to test whether the impact of Stalinist policies and the WWII on economic geography of the USSR persists in long run, and whether, in response to these policies, the long-term dynamics of the Soviet city growth shows evidence of multiple equilibria. I find that WWII does not have a statistically significant long-term effect on city growth, controlling for other factors, while GULAG system does. The growth of an average city in 1960s exhibits partial mean-reversion after the shocks of 1930s-1950s. The dynamics is consistent with multiple equilibria hypothesis: cities that received a lot of investment (as measured by the GULAG population) in the 1930s-1950s, have a higher chance not to revert to the previous trajectory, but to continue growing, while neglected cities are more likely to decline. |
| Abstract: | Эта статья изучает влияние принудительного труда в ГУЛАГе, переселения, и потерь во Второй мировой войне на долгосрочную динамику роста города в СССР. Основная цель заключается в проверке, сохранилось ли влияние сталинской политики и Второй мировой войны на экономическую географию СССР в долгосрочной перспективе, и показывала ли, в ответ на эти политики, долгосрочная динамика роста советского города свидетельство множественного равновесия , Я считаю, что Вторая мировая война не оказывает статистически значимого долгосрочного влияния на рост города, при учете других факторов, в то время как система ГУЛАГа - оказывает. Рост среднего города в 1960-е годы проявляет частичное возвращение к норме после потрясений 1930-1950. Динамика согласуется с гипотезы множественного равновесия: города, которые получили много инвестиций (измеренных в населении ГУЛАГа) в 1930-1950, имеют более высокий шанс не вернуться к прежней траектории, а продолжать расти, в то время как рост оставшихся в стороне городов, вероятно, снизится. |
| Keywords: | economic geography,cities,USSR,GULAG |
| JEL: | R11 R12 P25 |
| Date: | 2015–02–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:122139&r=cis |
| By: | Maria Efremova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Zarina Lepshokova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This study presents the results of empirical research on the relationship between strength and positivity of religious identification and attitudes towards economic behaviour in a group of Orthodox Christians and Sunni Muslims in Russia (N=820). In order to measure strength and positivity of religious identification, we constructed scales based on the theory of social identity. Attitudes toward models of economic behaviour were measured using methodology to measure economic attitudes based on the scenario approach. The results revealed that attitudes towards three models of economic behaviour form a single factor of economic involvement. In addition, generalized economic involvement was confirmed by a simultaneous CFA in both religious groups. In our study we found that strength and positivity of religious identification are differently associated with the attitudes toward economic involvement. Thus, it was concluded that the strength of religious identification is not conducive to attitudes reflecting economic involvement. Positivity of religious identification was found to have a positive effect on economic involvement attitudes. However, further analysis demonstrated that the relationship between positivity of religious identification and economic involvement had interfaith specifics: positivity of religious identification was positively related to the models of economic involvement only in the group of Christians, while in the group of Muslims, this relationship is insignificant. The results are discussed in terms of features of religious identification in these two groups |
| Keywords: | religious identification, strength of religious identification, positivity of religious identification, economic attitudes, models of economic behaviour, economic involvement, Orthodox Christians, Sunni Muslims. |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:46psy2015&r=cis |
| By: | Knobel, Alexander; Chokaev, Bekhan |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the possible economic effects of Russia-EU free trade agreement, implying a mutual zero import tariffs in the trade of the Customs Union and the EU. Analysis of the effects is made using CGE Globe v1 model. We estimate the impact of an FTA on the economies, both at the level of the entire economy and at the industry level. The sensitivity analysis is made. It is shown that, in both relative and absolute terms, Russia potentially more benefits from the agree-ment than the EU. The cumulative gain of the CU is strictly positive, but the benefits and costs are unevenly distributed among its members, with negative effect for Belarus. |
| Keywords: | Customs Union,European Union,Free Trade Agreement,CGE |
| JEL: | C68 F15 F17 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:121853&r=cis |
| By: | TAKEDA Kuninobu |
| Abstract: | The European Commission sent a Statement of Objections to Russian state-owned enterprise (SOE) Gazprom, alleging that its business practices breached European Union (EU) antitrust rules. This paper analyzes the case from the viewpoints of EU internal and external energy policies. The Commission has been using competition law as a tool for internal and external energy policies. Until the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty, the Commission had been applying competition law in order to materialize an internal energy policy. Since the Lisbon Treaty, it has been using competition law for both external and internal energy policies. The Gazprom case, in which Lithuania pressed the Commission to enforce competition law under the name of "solidarity," is the latter case. But using competition law in such an instrumental way can cause a negative side effect such as disincentive for investment in pipelines, and it can also bring about a fierce conflict between concerned nations as seen in a Russian blocking statute. |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:15058&r=cis |
| By: | Prakash Loungani |
| Abstract: | The global unemployment rate is expected to increase slightly in 2016 to 5.7 percent but remain well below the peak of 6.2 percent recorded in 2009. The increase results from deteriorating growth prospects among many emerging markets and in some oil-producing countries. According to forecasts released in the IMF’s October 2015 World Economic Outlook, big increases in unemployment are expected to occur next year in Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, and Russia. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment, jobs, growth, emerging, oil-production, developing, global, markets, China, India, Africa |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ipaper:ijr-15/02&r=cis |
| By: | Bhattacharyya, Sambit |
| Abstract: | In this chapter I explore the causal relationships between historical factors (for eg., geography, disease, colonial history, and technology) and poverty in developing countries. I start with a review of the existing theories. This is followed by a novel unified framework in order to causally relate these historical factors in explaining the process of development in Western Europe and the New World colonies. The final section applies this framework to explain why Africa, Latin America, and Russia fell behind. My central argument is that Western Europe benefitted from favourable geography which led to highly productive agriculture, food surplus, and institutions conducive to development. In contrast, Africa continues to suffer from unfavourable geography and disease. Institutional weaknesses in Latin America and Russia explain their relatively weak long term economic performance. I also argue that these historical factors matter for contemporary patterns of development across the globe. The chapter concludes with some suggestions for future research on this topic. |
| Keywords: | root causes, poverty |
| JEL: | N0 O1 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:67902&r=cis |
| By: | Maria OSTROVNAYA; Elena PODKOLZINA |
| Abstract: | Governments of different countries try to lower the entry cost in public procurement in order to decrease public spending. The purpose of this paper is to examine how the entry cost influences favoritism and procurement prices in the corrupt environment. We adapt the model of selective entry and find that lower entry cost always reduces the contract price paid by the benevolent procurer, but at the same time may make favoritism more stable. Thus the entry cost does not affect the contract price paid by the corrupt procurer or increase it. We illustrate this result using case study on gasoline procurement in Russia where the entry cost of companies was decreased by e-procurement reform. This allows us to examine how changes in entry costs influence competition of companies and procurement prices in auctions. |
| Keywords: | public procurement; endogenous entry; favoritism; e-auctions |
| JEL: | H57 D73 |
| Date: | 2015–11–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pia:papers:00015/2015&r=cis |
| By: | Hill, Jonathan B.; Prokhorov, Artem |
| Abstract: | We construct a Generalized Empirical Likelihood estimator for a GARCH(1,1) model with a possibly heavy tailed error. The estimator imbeds tail-trimmed estimating equations allowing for over-identifying conditions, asymptotic normality, efficiency and empirical likelihood based confidence regions for very heavy-tailed random volatility data. We show the implied probabilities from the tail-trimmed Continuously Updated Estimator elevate weight for usable large values, assign large but not maximum weight to extreme observations, and give the lowest weight to non-leverage points. We derive a higher order expansion for GEL with imbedded tail-trimming (GELITT), which reveals higher order bias and efficiency properties, available when the GARCH error has a finite second moment. Higher order asymptotics for GEL without tail-trimming requires the error to have moments of substantially higher order. We use first order asymptotics and higher order bias to justify the choice of the number of trimmed observations in any given sample. We also present robust versions of Generalized Empirical Likelihood Ratio, Wald, and Lagrange Multiplier tests, and an efficient and heavy tail robust moment estimator with an application to expected shortfall estimation. Finally, we present a broad simulation study for GEL and GELITT, and demonstrate profile weighted expected shortfall for the Russian Ruble - US Dollar exchange rate. We show that tail-trimmed CUE-GMM dominates other estimators in terms of bias, mse and approximate normality. AMS classifications : 62M10 , 62F35. |
| Keywords: | GEL ; GARCH ; tail trimming ; heavy tails ; robust inference ; efficient moment estimation ; expected shortfall ; Russian Ruble |
| JEL: | C13 C49 |
| Date: | 2015–09–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:syb:wpbsba:2123/13795&r=cis |