nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2015‒11‒15
34 papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Japanese Business In Russia:Local Challenges And Adaptation By Nina V. Ershova
  2. Estimation of Peer Effects with Predicted Social Ties: Evidence from Two Universities in Brazil and Russia By Oleg V. Poldin; Tania P. Simoes; Marcelo Knobel; Maria M. Yudkevich
  3. Principles of Formation and Implementation of Structural Policy: International Experience and its Application in Russia By Berezinskaya, Olga
  4. Optimization of Regional Public Transport System: The Case of Perm Krai By Elena Koncheva; Nikolay Zalesskiy; Pavel Zuzin
  5. Investigating Modernity Through the Lens of a Recreation Venue: Pleasure Gardens in Late Imperial St. Petersburg and Moscow By Svetlana A. Ryabova
  6. Shaking Dutch Grounds Won't Shatter the European Gas Market By Franziska Holz; Hanna Brauers; Philipp M. Richter; Thorsten Roobeek
  7. The Impact of Strategic Governance on the Quality of the Budgetary Process in Russia By Sokolov, Ilya
  8. Update of Priorities of Scientific and Technological Development of Russia: Issues and Solutions By Kurakova, N.; Tsvetkova, L; Zinov, Vladimir; Yeremchenko, Olga; Golomysov, V. S.
  9. Methodology of Assessment of Education Impact on Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation and its Constituents By Klyachko, Tatiana; Beliakov, Sergei
  10. Global Crisis and the Economic Policy Challenges of Modern Russia By Mau, Vladimir; Ulyukaev, Sergey
  11. Comparative analysis of the trends in the development of the northern cities of the world and Russia By Tuyara Gavrilyeva
  12. Russian Constitutional Development: Formal and Informal Practices By Andrei N. Medushevskiy
  13. Migration and the Labor Market By Florinskaya, Yulia; Mkrtchyan, Nikita; Maleva, Tatyana Mikhailovna; Kirillova, M. K.
  14. The International Market of Educational Services: The Basic Characteristics and Development Trends By Galichin, V. A.
  15. From the Security to Insecurity Dilemma Developing a Theory of Security for Today’S Emerging Powers By Andrej Krickovic
  16. Endowment of Intangible Resources and Phases of Internationalization in Emerging Economies. The Case of Russia By Jardon Carlos; Molodchik A. Mariya
  17. New Economic Challenges: What is a Margin of Safety of the Russian Population? By Maleva, Tatyana Mikhailovna; Avraamova, Elena M.
  18. Costs and Benefits of Land Ownership: The Case of Russian Firms By Paul Castaneda Dower; Egor Malkov; Leonid Polishchuk; William Pyle
  19. Legal Problems of the Administration of Controlled Foreign Companies By Kornienko, Natalia; Velikova, Elisa
  20. Systemic Opposition at Russia’S Gubernatorial Elections By Rostislav F. Turovsky
  21. Cost-Benefit Estimation of the Smart Grid Development for the Russian Unified Power System By Veselov Fedor; Fedosova Alina
  22. If You Can’T Beat Them to You Have to Join Them? Strategies Rising Powers Use to Challenge and Transform the International Order By Andrej Krickovic; Dmitry Novikov
  23. Issues of Modernization. The Role of Social Capital By Komarov, Vladimir; Ivanov, V.; Pavlov, Pavel Nikolaevich; Rumyantsev, Nikità
  24. New Normal for Russia By Yudaeva, Ksenia
  25. Forecasting Russian Macroeconomic Indicators with BVAR By Boris B. Demeshev; Oxana A. Malakhovskaya
  26. Structure Shifts in Russian Economy: Comparative Analysis of Dynamics of Basic Indicators By Izryadnova, Olga
  27. Working Paper – WP/14/05- Transmission of China’s Shocks to the BRIS Countries By Mustafa Çakir; Alain Kabundi
  28. Assessment of CIS Countries Readiness for Creation of Currency Union By Assessment of CIS Countries Readiness for Creation of Currency Union; Mironov, Alexey
  29. Evaluating the Effectiveness of Public and Municipal Services: Social Criticism and Professional Expertise By Rogozin, Dmitriy M.; Shmerlina, Irina
  30. Monitoring of Continuing Professional Education: The Positions of Employers and Employees By Avraamova, Elena M.; Klyachko, Tatiana; Loginov, Dmitriy
  31. Does Education Affect Wages During and After Economic Crisis? Evidence from Latvia (2006–2012) By Olegs Krasnopjorovs
  32. Mobile Banking Adoption in Russia: What Incentives Matter By Veronika Belousova; Nikolay Chichkanov
  33. Evaluation of Latvia's Re-Exports Using Firm-Level Data By Konstantins Benkovskis; Santa Berzina; Liva Zorgenfreija
  34. An experimental evaluation of an anti-corruption intervention among Ukrainian university students By Denisova-Schmidt, Elena; Huber, Martin; Prytula, Yaroslav

  1. By: Nina V. Ershova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The improvement of the Russian investment climate encouraging an inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) into the country’s economy is being declared at the highest levels of the Russian government as an important objective for the further economic development of the country. However, one of the best ways to develop a comprehensive roadmap covering all the spheres which investors are interested in is to consider their opinions and ideas and react to the most urgent and critical issues which serve as obstacles to their investment activities in Russia. This paper considers the case of Japanese investors in Russia and is based on a survey of Japanese companies doing business in Russia and several interviews with the representatives of the Japanese business community. We try to identify which factors attract Japanese capital to Russia and which hinder investment activities.
    Keywords: Russian business climate, Japanese business, foreign investment in Russia, business culture, Japanese management
    JEL: F21
    Date: 2015
  2. By: Oleg V. Poldin (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Tania P. Simoes (University of Campinas (Unicamp).); Marcelo Knobel (University of Campinas (Unicamp).); Maria M. Yudkevich (National Research University Higher School of Economics.)
    Abstract: Social interactions with peers during learning have a significant impact on university students’ academic achievement. As social ties are voluntary, an empirical estimation of peer effects is exposed to a potential endogeneity problem. To overcome this issue, we propose to define the peer group of an individual as their predicted friends. The specific features of the learning environment in higher education institutions may affect dimensions along which friendship ties form. To test the presence of peer effects in different educational and cultural contexts, we use data on students studying in two universities located in two different countries, Brazil and Russia. We assume that friendship is affected by homophily in student attributes, such as having the same region of origin, the same gender, and sharing the same study group. In both institutions, we find positive externalities from having high-ability peers.
    Keywords: peer effects, academic achievement, social networks
    JEL: I21 Z13
    Date: 2015
  3. By: Berezinskaya, Olga (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: Conducting targeted and effective structural policy and its correlation with the strategic objectives of the national economy has fundamental importance, as it helpsenter the target trend growth and the formation of the target socio-economic configuration. This policy is implemented not only States and supranational entities and demonstrateruet evolution of their priorities of socio-economic development. The paper presents an analysis of the world experience of structural policy, given its scientific basis, provides practicalcal mechanisms, institutions and regulations, describes the features the integration process of structural projects in the socio-economic policy in Russia. Development and implementation of state structural policy is regarded as the most effective way to achieve the targets of socio-economic Russia's development and consolidation of sub-target parameters supports unified state policies in the strategic documents planning.
    Keywords: structural policy, national economy, socio-economic development
    Date: 2014–08–08
  4. By: Elena Koncheva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Nikolay Zalesskiy (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Pavel Zuzin (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Liberalization of regional public transport market in Russia has led to continuing decline of service quality. One of the main results of the liberalization is the emergence of inefficient spatial structures of regional public transport systems in Russian regions. While the problem of optimization of urban public transport system has been extensively studied, the structure of regional public transport system has been referred less often. The question is whether the problems of spatial structure are common for regional and public transportation systems, and if this is the case, whether the techniques developed for urban public transport planning and management are applicable to regional networks. The analysis of the regional public transport system in Perm Krai has shown that the problems of cities and regions are very similar. On this evidence the proposals were made in order to employ urban practice for the optimization of regional public transport system. The detailed program was developed for Perm Krai which can be later on adapted for other regions.
    Keywords: regional public transport system, trunk and feeder public transport system
    JEL: R42
    Date: 2015
  5. By: Svetlana A. Ryabova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This article investigates modernity through a study of pleasure gardens in St. Petersburg and Moscow in the late nineteenth and the early twentieth century. Russian pleasure gardens, being mere imitations of the English venues, reflect how western ideas connected to entertainment were modified, enriched with local features and used for wider purposes. This study argues that pleasure gardens were translators of developing mass culture, facilities for testing the new technology and leisure practices, and also indicators of cultural changes, which were experienced by an urban population on the cusp of modern Russia.
    Keywords: pleasure gardens, urban history, leisure, modernity, fin-de-siecle, recreation, Moscow, St.Petersburg, amusement parks.
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2015
  6. By: Franziska Holz; Hanna Brauers; Philipp M. Richter; Thorsten Roobeek
    Abstract: The Netherlands have been a pivotal supplier in Western European natural gas markets in the last decades. Recent analyses show that the Netherlands would play an important role in replacing Russian supplies in Germany and France in case of Russian export disruption (Richter & Holz, 2015). However, the Netherlands have suffered from regular earthquakes in recent years that are related to the natural gas production in the major Groningen field. Natural gas production rates– that are politically mandated in the Netherlands – have consequently been substantially reduced, with an estimated annual production 30% below the 2013 level. We implement a realistically low production path for the next decades in the Global Gas Model and analyze the geopolitical impacts. We find that the diversification of the European natural gas imports allows spreading the replacement of Dutch gas over many alternative sources, with diverse pipeline and LNG supplies.There will be hardly any price or demand reduction effect. Even if Russia fails to supply Europe, the additional impact of the lower Dutch production is moderate. Again, alternative suppliers from various sources are able to replace the Dutch volumes. Hence, the European consumers need not to worry about the declining Dutch natural gas production and their security of supplies.
    Keywords: Natural gas, supply security, Europe, equilibrium modeling
    JEL: C69 L71 Q34
    Date: 2015
  7. By: Sokolov, Ilya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: Over the last decade, the Russian Government is persistently heading for a transition to the strategic governance and shifting of the budgetary system of all levels of government to the long term planning cycle which should contribute to the higher predictability of the budgetary policy and correspondingly to the formation of conditions for sustainable economic development of the country.
    Keywords: Russian economy, budgetary policy, strategic planning, long term planning, sustainable development
    JEL: H6 H7
    Date: 2015–09–18
  8. By: Kurakova, N. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Tsvetkova, L (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Zinov, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Yeremchenko, Olga (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Golomysov, V. S. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: This paper deals with issues of technological projection in Russia, as well as its methodology and tools for computing long-term forecasts. The authors give a number of examples as priorities for the development of applied science in Russia as inefficient spending of public funds due to low potential of industrialization and incorrect assessment of competitiveness of national research institutions.
    Keywords: Russian economy, scientific and technological development
    JEL: I23 I28 I22
    Date: 2015–09–20
  9. By: Klyachko, Tatiana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Beliakov, Sergei (Government of the Russian Federation - Russian Ministry of General and Professional Education)
    Abstract: The paper focuses on the development of methodology fro assessment of the contribution of education in the socio-economic development of the constituents of the Russian Federation. Author proposed two approaches to the assesstemt of the contribution of education to the socio-economic development of Russian regions: on the basis of salary bonus for the level of education and on the basis of salary differentiated according to employers age.
    Keywords: Russian economy, education, educational reform
    JEL: I21 I22 I23 I24 I25 I28
    Date: 2015–09–07
  10. By: Mau, Vladimir (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Ulyukaev, Sergey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The global crisis creates a new economic and political agenda. It requires a rethinking of many of the conclusions of economic theory and practice, which is still considered to be accepted. The paper analyzes the key issues of economic development in the medium term. Among the important for the formation of a new model of economic growth problems are considered: the rate of growth and the likelihood of long-term stagnation, new challenges to macroeconomic policies in connection with a wide spread of its unconventional tools, inequality and economic growth, the contours of the new social state, perspectives of globalization, as well as re-industrialization in developed countries. On this basis, analyzes the nature and causes of the crisis in the Russian economy, compared crises 2008-2009 and 2014-2015 years., There are three main components of the latter. We consider the effects and impact of sanctions on the change in the economic situation in the country, the medium-term structural growth constraints. Examples of medium- and long-term measures that will help to reverse the current trends and bring the economy on the path of sustainable development.
    Keywords: Russian economy, global crisis, economic policy
    JEL: F34
    Date: 2015–05–17
  11. By: Tuyara Gavrilyeva
    Abstract: It is known that cities are the engines of growth of the modern economy and society. Herewith we highlight the national and regional characteristics of urbanization as a global process. Somewhere the urbanization is stimulated, in China for example, somewhere it is limited, as we see in Russia. But it is a long-term trend, which will qualitatively change the life of humanity in the 21st century. There is a special interest in the comparative analysis of models of development in the northern cities of the world and Russia. They all have growth restrictions, such as the environment, the demographic capacity of the area, the high level of technological hazards. Thus, many have similar conditions: - Located near the water (sea and river), respectively, these are ports; - There is a highly developed transport infrastructure, including bridges; - The population is small; - Most are the educational and research centers; - Most are the administrative centres of the province (region), metropolises. In contrast to the sustainable state of the northern cities in Europe and America, where the dynamics of the main indicators remain stable for a long time, the state of the cities in the Russian North is differentiated. Yakutsk is the biggest city in terms of population, located in the permafrost zone. Now it is one of the fastest growing cities in the world. Over the past 15 years, the population of the city increased by 50%, from 195.4 thousand people in 2000 to 294.2 thousand people in 2014. In contrast, the other cities of the North of Russia (Norilsk, Vorkuta and Magadan) show population decline, deterioration of the economic situation. Fast growth, as well as a rapid decline, entail an increase in social risks. In addition, growth is also accompanied by an increase in technological and environmental risks. Currently, the most pressing issues for Yakutsk are: - Lack of social, communal and engineering infrastructure, poor quality of the land improvement. - Poverty of the population due to the weak labor market. - Growth of social tensions by reason of no high-quality social services and the emergence of wealth (income) limit for access to quality services. - Increase of anthropogenic pressure on the environment. - High costs on production. Yakutsk needs to shape its own, unique in many respects model of sustainable development, which should absorb world experience as well as its own properties. Development of the city is largely determined by quality management decisions and research projects.
    Date: 2015–10
  12. By: Andrei N. Medushevskiy (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Transitional constitutionalism remains the subject of intensive political controversies. On the ground of the Project realized by the Institute of Law and Public Policy (Moscow) this article presents the analysis of the basic constitutional principles (pluralism, separation of powers, federalism, independence of justice, the guarantees of political rights and freedoms) describing the changing character of their implementation in different areas of constitutional practices – legislation, constitutional justice, administrative activity and informal practices and the comparative level of constitutional deviations in each of them. The important new acquirement of this research is the concept and methodology of the constitutional monitoring and recommendations for the full-scale reforms in key areas of Russian constitutional and political settlement. The author shows that the true choice of modern society is not the dilemma - constitutionalism versus its negation but the choice between real and sham constitutionalism with a big variety of intermediate options between them. It is precisely the area, which the author defines as a transitional type of constitutionalism, the field of collision of different political stakeholders. This is an area of unstable equilibrium where the implementation of different legal strategies and technologies may produce a definitive effect.
    Keywords: The Russian Constitution, constitutional principles, legislation, justice, administration, formal and informal practices, constitutional reforms.
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2015
  13. By: Florinskaya, Yulia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Mkrtchyan, Nikita (National Research University Higher School of Economics (Moscow); Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Maleva, Tatyana Mikhailovna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kirillova, M. K. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The paper analyses labor migration in Russia and its impact on national and regional labor markets. Emphasis is placed on two types of migration - internal, represented by Russians, engaged his career in regions other than their permanent residence, and external represented by foreigners working in Russia. The basis of the analysis - the data of the FMS of Russia, Rosstat, in the including regular surveys conducted on employment, expert evaluation. The brief analysis of policies regarding labor migration undertaken in recent years. The measures for the promotion of in-country spatial mobility of the population and in the field of external labor migration.
    Keywords: Russian economy, labor migration, labor market
    JEL: F22 J11
    Date: 2015
  14. By: Galichin, V. A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The paper analyzes the main characteristics and tendentions of international market of educational services, describes in detail the situation with the development of strategies of internationalization policy in the sphere of export education enforcement services and the development of academic mobility in different individual countries are considered the conditions and factors strengthening of Russia's position in international education. The results can be used by state and non-governmental organizations in activities.
    Keywords: educational services, development tendentions
    Date: 2014
  15. By: Andrej Krickovic (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The West's attempts to isolate Russia during the Ukraine crisis have failed to win the support of the leading states of Global South. China, Brazil, India, and South Africa abstained from the UN resolution to condemn Russia's annexation of Crimea and have spoken out against further sanctions. This response reflects their receptiveness to Russia's claims that events in Kiev constituted a "color revolution" orchestrated by the West -- a narrative that speaks to developing states' own feelings of internal vulnerability and weakness. The paper builds on Mohammed Ayoob's "third world security predicament" modifying this concept to fit an increasingly interconnected and interdependent world where developing states are the biggest new players. We are used to thinking of conflict between states in terms of the security dilemma, i.e. where a state’s strength has the effect of making it more secure but also increases the insecurity of other states. A state’s internal weaknesses can unleash a similar cycle of suspicion and conflict. If a state believes that these weaknesses will be exploited by rival powers it may look for ways to push back. In a world where the emerging powers and potential rivals to US and Western hegemony are also developing states this kind of insecurity dilemma may represent the more dangerous threat to peace between great powers
    Keywords: rising powers, security dilemma, internal security, China, Russia
    JEL: F50
    Date: 2015
  16. By: Jardon Carlos (University of Vigo); Molodchik A. Mariya (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper explores the relationship between different types of intangible resources and phases of the internationalization in the context of emerging economies. The Uppsala model is applied to build internationalization index considering export, import and investment activities. The database of more than 2000 Russian companies is used to test the hypotheses put forward. The findings reveal that relational capital has significant positive impact on each stage of internationalization; organizational capital improves internationalization except the last stage of being multinational. Contrary to our expectations human capital has no direct impact on internationalization; notwithstanding it has positive effect on relational and structural capital
    Keywords: internationalization, internationalization index, Uppsala model, intangible resources, emerging markets, Russian companies, relational capital, structural capital, human capital, regression analysis
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2015
  17. By: Maleva, Tatyana Mikhailovna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Avraamova, Elena M. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: This paper was drafted on the basis of the study "The growth potential of the economic activity of the population, the social dynamics of the population and the risks of difficult life situations," conducted by the Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting RANEPA in 2014. The aim of the study was to identify barriers and the growth prospects of the economically active population. Information base of research - a survey of 4800 respondents in three Russian regions with different levels of socio-economic status. The paper identified resource characteristics affecting the economically active population, revealed values ??of the factors that determine its growth or, conversely, braking, and also found a link resource potential of households with wealth.
    Keywords: Russian economy, economic activity, growth potential
    JEL: J21 J22 J23 J24
    Date: 2015
  18. By: Paul Castaneda Dower (Florida International University); Egor Malkov (University of Minnesota); Leonid Polishchuk (National Research University Higher School of Economics); William Pyle (Middlebury College)
    Abstract: Private ownership confers numerous benefits, including stronger performance incentives, better use of privately owned assets, and improved access to finance. We argue that privately owned land could be both an asset and a liability, and overall net benefits of land ownership are contingent on the quality of surrounding institutions. We present a simple model and empirical evidence based on the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS) in Russia, which clearly demonstrates such conditionality in the case of land ownership by Russian industrial firms. Consistently with earlier literature, land ownership facilitates firms’ access to finance (the “de Soto effect”), but at the same time entails additional risks and obstacles to doing business. When the quality of property rights protection and other key institutions is poor, land ownership could have an adverse effect on firms’ performance
    Keywords: de Soto effect, land ownership, property rights, privatization, institutional complementarity
    JEL: D23 O17 Q15 R14 R52
    Date: 2015
  19. By: Kornienko, Natalia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Velikova, Elisa (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: As part of the analysis of foreign experience in the field of the legal status of controlled foreign companies, criteria for recognition of a foreign company controlled by, the principles of determining tax residency and other issues that may have an impact on the administration of foreign-controlled companies. In particular, we consider the ways and mechanisms of information provision of the legislation on controlled foreign companies. Having considered the relevant current legislation. Revealed legal problems that could hinder the administration of controlled foreign companies. According to the results of the analysis recommendations regarding the legal mechanisms and tools to prevent the accumulation of profits in offshore jurisdictions controlled foreign companies the Russian organizations.
    Keywords: controlled foreign companies, administration
    JEL: L22 M14 M16
    Date: 2014
  20. By: Rostislav F. Turovsky (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This study is based on descriptive analysis of systemic opposition in Russia and its regions. We focus on the procedure and results of gubernatorial elections held in 2012-2015 in 62 regions (twice in two of them). The author has analyzed statistical information on electoral participation and performance of the opposition at gubernatorial elections, along with numerous interviews with political actors and experts. This study presents a logical model of ruling elites’ and systemic opposition’s strategic behavior and interaction proved by cases studied by the author in Russia’s regions. The author gives the definition of systemic opposition and analyzes its relations with the federal and regional authorities. Of particular importance is the role of systemic opposition in the legitimating of gubernatorial elections. However, the study shows that the legitimating process fails due to low turnout and usually leads to electoral losses of systemic opposition. Gubernatorial elections give systemic opposition very limited opportunities (despite the fact of its first victory in 2015) but still integrate it into the system while leaving the systemic parties with more chances to get political positions in legislative bodies.
    Keywords: systemic opposition, gubernatorial elections, hybrid regime, sub-national authoritarianism
    JEL: D72
    Date: 2015
  21. By: Veselov Fedor (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Fedosova Alina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper is devoted to the issue of smart power system cost-benefit analysis. The innovative character of smart grids is defined and related obstacles for traditional cost-benefit assessment are revealed, primarily referred to external effects evaluation. Brief systematization of existing methods of smart grids assessment is provided and their weak points are defined. A new Smart Grid cost-benefit assessment approach is presented, basing on the elaborated comprehensive system of smart power system effects. The approach is tested for the system effects of smart power system implementation in the Russian Unified Energy System, quantitative results are presented.
    Keywords: smart grid, economic efficiency, cost-benefit analysis, prosumer
    JEL: L94 O22 Q47
    Date: 2015
  22. By: Andrej Krickovic (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Dmitry Novikov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: What strategies do rising states use to challenge the established international order and bring about its transformation? This question has received surprisingly little attention, as both realist and liberal theorists have focused on whether or not there will be a demand for change on the part of rising powers. Both schools assume that change will involve open and violent confrontation between status quo powers and challengers. Realists see this as the natural state of affairs and regard great power confrontation to be the major engine of change in international relations. Liberals are more optimistic and argue that rising powers will be more inclined to accept the established order because they find the costs of challenging it to be prohibitive. We believe that these arguments are flawed in that they limit rising powers to only two options: they can either “beat ‘em” or “join ‘em”. Rising states can either acquiesce to the existing order or wage a full-out frontal assault to overthrow and replace it.In examining the behavior of post-Soviet Russia (the contemporary rising power that has been the most proactive in its opposition to the established order), we find that rising powers have a wider menu of effective strategies available to them – from simply ignoring the parts of the established order that they do not like, to forming new relationships and institutions that achieve specific aims. These strategies allow rising powers to resist the established order and work towards its gradual transformation
    Keywords: rising powers, international order, power transitions, international institutions
    JEL: F50
    Date: 2015
  23. By: Komarov, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Ivanov, V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Pavlov, Pavel Nikolaevich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Rumyantsev, Nikità (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the research of the social capital impact on the modernization of the Russian economy. Authors underscore the magnitude of the institutes for the economic development as well as attempt to demonstrate in what way the quality of the institutional environment (including government regulation) can be upgraded by improving the quality of social capital. Moreover, this paper unfolds the role of social capital in the transformation of economically efficient institutional changes, overcoming obstruction of economic reforms.
    Keywords: Russian economy, social capital, human capital, economic reforms
    JEL: J38 J24
    Date: 2014
  24. By: Yudaeva, Ksenia (Centre for Economic and Financial Research)
    Abstract: Concept of the New Normal was invented in the United States by Bill Gross and Mohamed El-Erianom from the Pimco fund. The basic idea of this concept was that low economic growth and high unemployment is not a temporary situation in which the economy fell after the acute phase of the financial crisis and from which it would soon return to pre-crisis rate. On the contrary, it is the new norm for the economy, and to continue this situation for a long time. Later the same authors of the theory was developed and some are talking about beyond new normal. At the heart of this concept was the idea that the Fed's policy, holding zero interest rates, leads to the existence of multiple equilibria. Banks are not receiving income from lending may not develop the loan and to invest in financial instruments, despite the cheapness of resources. The same is true for investors. Therefore, the result of the policy of zero interest rates can be a stimulus, or a neutral or even a negative effect.
    Keywords: new normal, policy of zero interest rates, Russia
    Date: 2015
  25. By: Boris B. Demeshev (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Oxana A. Malakhovskaya (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the forecast performance of Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) on Russian data. We estimate BVARs of different sizes and compare the accuracy of their out-ofsample forecasts with those obtained with unrestricted vector autoregressions and random walk with drift. We show that many Russian macroeconomic indicators can be forecast by BVARs more accurately than by competing models. However, contrary to several other studies, we do not confirm that the relative forecast error monotonically decreases with increasing the crosssectional dimension of the sample. In half of those cases where a BVAR appears to be the most accurate model, a small-dimensional BVAR outperforms its high-dimensional counterpart.
    Keywords: VAR, BVAR, forecasting, Bayesian estimation
    JEL: C11 C13 C53
    Date: 2015
  26. By: Izryadnova, Olga (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: Increasing competition forms a new model of economical growth and suggests a simultaneous solution of strategic problems and improving of business climate and elevation of investment attractiveness.
    Keywords: monopoly, control, economy, Russia, investment climate
    Date: 2014–04–16
  27. By: Mustafa Çakir; Alain Kabundi
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of China on the BRIS countries, namely Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. We identify Chinese supply and demand shocks and assess their transmission to BRIS in a structural dynamic factor model framework estimated over the period 1995Q2-2009Q4. The findings show that Chinese supply shocks are more important than its demand shocks. Supply shocks produce positive and significant output responses in all BRIS countries. While supply shocks have a permanent impact on the BRIS countries, the effects of demand shocks are short-lived. Both supply and demand shocks are transmitted through trade rather than financial linkages. However, the responses of BRIS countries are heterogeneous and therefore they require different policy responses.
    Date: 2014–07–22
  28. By: Assessment of CIS Countries Readiness for Creation of Currency Union (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Mironov, Alexey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The authors analyze the CIS countries’ potential readiness to establish a currency union. Based on Optimum Currency Area (OCA) criteria that determine the countries’ readiness to form a currency union and some particular benefits and costs of a currency union several macroeconomic indicators are determined area. The authors analyze the period following the final transformation of CIS countries’ economies from centrally planned to the market ones – from 1999 to 2011. The paper also tests the stability of the results obtained to check the adequacy of obtained estimates and for ranging countries by their matching OCA criteria.
    Keywords: monetary union, optimal currency area, integration, exchange rate
    JEL: E42 F33 F36
    Date: 2014–04–24
  29. By: Rogozin, Dmitriy M. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Shmerlina, Irina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The work is dedicated to the identification and analysis of problems and contradictions in the task of improving the social impact of the activities of government bodies and state/local government agencies both in theoretical and methodological terms and from the perspective of the practical implementation of legal innovations.
    Keywords: Russian economy, public services, municipal services, public goods
    JEL: H41 H43 H44
    Date: 2014
  30. By: Avraamova, Elena M. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Klyachko, Tatiana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Loginov, Dmitriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the development of education potential via system supplementary/continuous professional training as the task posed by the national economy amid growing sectoral competion.
    Keywords: Russian economy, continuing professional education, education reform
    Date: 2015–09–03
  31. By: Olegs Krasnopjorovs (Bank of Latvia)
    Abstract: We employ EU-SILC micro data for Latvia to study how returns to education have changed during the economic crisis of 2008–2009 and afterwards. We found that returns to education increased significantly during the crisis and decreased slightly during the subsequent economic recovery. The counter-cyclical effect of education on wages was particularly strong for males; it was evident in majority of sectors and all age groups (except youth, for citizens of Latvia, resident non-citizens and other country citizens as well as in all regions of the country, particularly outside the capital city region. The share of career component (better access to higher paid occupations, sectors and positions) in the Mincer coefficient remained broadly constant over time. After the crisis, education became even more associated with a longer working week and higher chances to be employed. Furthermore, we show that returns to education in Latvia are generally higher in the capital city and its suburbs than outside the capital city region, for citizens of Latvia than for resident non-citizens and citizens of other countries, but lower for males and young people. Wage differential models reveal a relatively large wage premium for higher education and rather small for secondary education. In line with the previous findings for other countries, the estimates obtained with instrumental variable models significantly exceed the Mincer coefficient.
    Keywords: returns to education, Mincer coefficient, wage differentials model, higher education wage premium, instrumental variables
    JEL: J31
    Date: 2015–11–10
  32. By: Veronika Belousova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Nikolay Chichkanov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: With the appearance of high tech mobile devices, mobile banking penetration has been revealed over the world. However, rates of payments that are made through mobile banking apps still much lower than through other channels. The paper aims at observing main incentives to use mobile banking in Russia by users of smartphones and tablets. This empirical model modifies the previous one proposed by Belousova & Chichkanov (2015) to find the relationship between the intention to use mobile banking and newly added factors like perceived financial costs and social influence as indirect influence of self-efficacy and compatibility with lifestyle. Like in the baseline study, Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) approach is used to check the existence of such a relation. The paper finds that the most powerful chain of incentives is «self-efficacy»-«perceived efforts»-«perceived usefulness»-«intention to use». The influence of perceived financial costs are also meaningful. However, perceived risks, compatibility with lifestyle and social influence do not have any significant relationship with the intention to use mobile banking. The lack of generalisability may be driven by the chosen focus group. In addition, the distinction between the dependent variable «intention to use» and real usage might be also considered as a limitation of the study. However, these results can be used by financial institutions that develop the strategy of providing banking services through the mobile channel. It may help to involve target group of clients and modify the product line
    Keywords: remote banking services; innovations; mobile banking; PLS-SEM; acceptance of technology; user adoption and behavioral intention; perceived usefulness.
    JEL: D12 G21 L86
    Date: 2015
  33. By: Konstantins Benkovskis (Bank of Latvia); Santa Berzina (Bank of Latvia); Liva Zorgenfreija (Bank of Latvia)
    Abstract: We use an anonymised firm-level trade database provided by the CSB to evaluate Latvia's re-exports. We obtain estimates of re-export flows and the corresponding re-export mark-ups by solving a linear maximisation problem for each firm-product pair. We find that the share of re-export flows in the total merchandise exports and imports is significant and follows an increasing trend. The share of re-exports is especially important in product groups, such as transport vehicles, plastics, mineral products, as well as machinery and electrical equipment. The majority of re-export flows is directed to Latvia's closest neighbours Lithuania and Estonia, suggesting that the country serves as a sort of a regional transport hub. We also find that the average re-export mark-ups were sizeable allowing us to conclude that re-export operations may also provide an important contribution to Latvia's GDP.
    Keywords: re-exports, firm-level data, Latvia, simplex
    JEL: D22 F14
    Date: 2015–11–09
  34. By: Denisova-Schmidt, Elena; Huber, Martin; Prytula, Yaroslav
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate experimentally the effect of an anti-corruption intervention -an info folder based on materials developed by Transparency International- on Ukrainian university students’ willingness to participate in an anti-corruption campaign and their general attitude toward corruption. In a survey of 600 students in the Ukrainian city of Lviv, individuals were randomly exposed to either the anti-corruption folder (treatment group) or a folder with information about Lviv (control group). The results suggest that students who have previous experience with bribing are more open to the campaign, while the effect on the total sample is not statistically significant. Furthermore, the intervention increases the overall perception that corruption is a (long-term) part of society rather than a temporary phenomenon. Finally, students with experience in corrupt practices tend to adopt a more negative view of corruption. For those without such experiences, however, we find some indication that the treatment could bolster the acceptance of corruption by instructing the students about its dissemination. The effects of this intervention are therefore ambivalent and appear to depend on the students’ previous exposure to corruption.
    Keywords: Anti-Corruption Campaigns; Corruption; Academic Integrity; University; Students; Ukraine; Experiment; Randomized Trial
    JEL: D73 C93
    Date: 2015–11–05

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