nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2015‒11‒07
twelve papers chosen by

  1. Monetary Regime Choice and Optimal Credit Rationing at the Official Rate: The Case of Russia By Andrey G. Shulgin
  2. The Russian ban on EU agricultural imports: A bilateral extension of AGLINK-COSIMO By Dillen, Koen
  3. Does Competition Matter? The Efficiency of Regional Higher Education Systems and Competition: The Case of Russia By Oleg V. Leshukov; Daria P. Platonova; Dmitry S. Semyonov
  4. An econometric analysis of market power in Azerbaijani wheat market: Evidence from Kazakhstan and Russia By Gafarova, Gulmira; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Glauben, Thomas
  5. Estimating the Public-Private Wage Gap in Russia: What Does Quantile Regression Tell Us? By Vladimir Gimpelson; Anna Lukiyanova; Anna Sharunina
  6. The Imlact of the Russian Import Ban on Domestic Pig Meat Prices in Russia By Djuric, Ivan; Gotz, Linde; Glauben, Thomas
  7. Towards a Distribution-Sensitive Better Life Index: Design, Data and Implementation By Koen Decancq
  8. Role of Foreign Trade in Ensuring Food Security of the Countries of Central Asia By Mogilevskii, Roman; Akramov, Kamiljon
  9. Nutrition transition in two emerging countries: A comparison between China and Russia By Burggraf, Christine; Kuhn, Lena; Zhao, Quiran; Teuber, Ramona; Glauben, Thomas
  10. Russian capital in the Visegrád countries By Kalman Kalotay; Andrea Elteto; Magdolna Sass; Csaba Weiner
  11. Nowcasting BRIC+M in Real Time By Tatjana Dahlhaus; Justin-Damien Guénette; Garima Vasishtha
  12. Impact of Agricultural Income Shocks due to Extreme Weather Events on the Food Security of the Poor in Central Asia By Mirzabaev, Alisher

  1. By: Andrey G. Shulgin (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Stabilizing monetary policy in a small open economy is constrained by the open economy trilemma. In a crisis this constraint may not allow the Central Bank to cut interest rates because this may cause significant capital flight and the ensuing problems. In this paper we investigate whether the Central Bank’s credit rationing at the official rate (CROR) may soften the open economy trilemma constraint and improve the results of monetary policy for different monetary regimes. We construct a DSGE model appropriate for analysing the forward-looking behaviour of households facing a non-zero probability of credit rationing at the official rate. A simulation of estimated on a Russian data model and welfare optimization exercises allow us to contribute to the question of optimal monetary regime choice and to analyse the role of credit rationing for different monetary regimes. We have found significant credit rationing in the quarterly Russian data of 2001–2014. The share of liquidity constrained (non-Ricardian) households and the probability of CROR are estimated as 22% and 66% respectively. Welfare maximization exercises reveal a trade off between low-inflation and high-welfare solutions and favour of a floating exchange rate regime. Researching CROR gives mixed results. On the one hand we found the optimal value of the probability of CROR in both exchange rate-based and Taylor rule-based models. On the other hand the resulting improvement in welfare is very small.
    Keywords: DSGE; Bayesian estimation; intermediate exchange rate regime; rationing of credit; exchange rate rule; Russia
    JEL: E52 E58 F41
    Date: 2015
  2. By: Dillen, Koen
    Abstract: Type On August 6 2014 the Russian Federation introduced a one year ban on imports into the Russian Federation of agricultural products, raw materials and food, originating from selected countries including the EU. This paper provides an initial assessment of the potential impact of this import ban on EU agricultural markets. Furthermore it provides an insight in the shifting trade patterns and price effects at EU, Russian and world level. We use the Aglink-Cosimo model, a recursive partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector. Its gross trade specification is problematic for the study of bilateral trade. Therefore the model was extended with an ad hoc incorporation of bilateral trade. The initial results show that the impact for the EU remains rather limited as the EU can divert a considerable part of its trade with Russia to other markets. The impact on the Russian market is however expected to be considerable as imports can't be easily substituted and domestic production has problems to expand productions significantly within the timeframe of the ban.
    Keywords: Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2015
  3. By: Oleg V. Leshukov (National Research University Higher School of Economics.); Daria P. Platonova (National Research University Higher School of Economics.); Dmitry S. Semyonov (National Research University Higher School of Economics.)
    Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between the degree of competition between higher education institutions (HEIs) and the efficiency of regional higher education systems using evidence from the Russian Federation. The choice of the regional system of higher education as a unit of analysis is explained by features of the Russian system of higher education, especially by “closeness” in the borders of regions. Using data envelopment analysis (DEA) we investigate the efficiency of higher education systems in the regions and compare the results with the extent of higher education competition within them. The analysis finds that within the overall sample the correlation is positive, but not striking. However the extent of competition correlates with the efficiency of regional sets of HEIs more in less socio-economically developed regions.
    Keywords: higher education, efficiency, competition, regions, Russia
    JEL: I23 I28
    Date: 2015
  4. By: Gafarova, Gulmira; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Glauben, Thomas
    Abstract: Azerbaijan is a net-importer of wheat with average self-sufficiency ratio of 55%. In order to meet the domestic needs completely, Azerbaijan imports wheat mainly from Kazakhstan and Russia. The objective of this study is to investigate the extent of market power exercised by the Kazakh and Russian exporters in Azerbaijani wheat import market. Toward this aim, we apply the Residual Demand Elasticity approach, and fit the model with monthly time-series data covering the period from January 2004 to December 2013. Total export quantity of an exporting country and population of an importing country are selected as excluded variables in this analysis. The empirical results demonstrate that the Russian exporters exercise market power in Azerbaijani wheat market, but the Kazakh exporters face perfect competition. Moreover, we argue that the Ukrainian exporters are able to constraint both Kazakh and Russian exporters’ market powers in Azerbaijani wheat market.
    Keywords: agricultural trade, market power, residual demand elasticity, wheat market, Crop Production/Industries, L13, Q11, Q17, Q18,
    Date: 2015
  5. By: Vladimir Gimpelson (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Anna Lukiyanova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Anna Sharunina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper explores the public-private wage gap in the Russian economy along the whole wage distribution. Using the RLM-HSE data set, it examines how gaps at various points of the distribution changed from 2000-2014 and presents decompositions of the gaps into components explained by differences in characteristics and differences in returns. The results suggest that the gap persists over time and varies along the wage distribution. During the 2000s low-skilled public sector workers had smaller pay gaps than higher-skilled workers had. Governmental policy interventions and the economic crisis of 2008-2009 contributed to the narrowing of the gap and its partial equalization along the distribution. A new set of policy changes associated with the May 2012 Presidential Decrees strengthened these tendencies but did not eliminate the gaps
    Keywords: public sector, wage, public-private wage gap, quantile regression, RLMS-HSE, Russia.
    JEL: J31 J45
    Date: 2015
  6. By: Djuric, Ivan; Gotz, Linde; Glauben, Thomas
    Abstract: In this paper we analyze the impact of the Russian ban on import of pig meat originating in the EU on the domestic pig meat price developments in Russia. We use a regime-switching price transmission model in order to identify possible changes in the long-run equilibrium between the pig meat prices of Russia and its main non-EU trading partners. Our results indicate the reduction of transaction costs in pig meat trade between Russia and its main non-EU trading partners, followed by the increase in transmission of price changes in the long-run. Though, our results indicate completely opposite results concerning domestic price relations between wholesale and end consumer pig meat prices in Russia. Overall, faced with the scarcity of pig meat on the domestic market, Russian consumers bear the biggest burden from the ban in the medium term by being faced with the significant increase in end consumer pig meat prices.
    Keywords: EU, import ban, pig meat, price transmission, Russia, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Relations/Trade, C22, P22, Q17, Q18.,
    Date: 2015
  7. By: Koen Decancq
    Abstract: The Better Life Index was introduced by the OECD as a tool to chart the multi-dimensional well-being of OECD member countries, Brazil and the Russian Federation. However, the Better Life Index relies only on aggregate country-level indicators, and hence is insensitive to how multi-dimensional well-being outcomes are distributed within countries. This paper discusses how a distribution-sensitive Better Life Index could be designed and implemented. Based on five concrete recommendations for the design of the index, a family of indices is suggested. These indices are shown to be decomposable in interpretable building blocks. While a rich and comprehensive micro-level data set is necessary to implement the distribution-sensitive Better Life Index, no such data set is currently available for all OECD member countries. The paper proposes a ‘synthetic’ data set that relies on information about macro-level indicators and micro-level data from the Gallup World Poll. The implementation of the distribution-sensitive Better Life Index is illustrated with this synthetic data set. While the small sample size and other survey features of the Gallup World Poll imply a number of potential biases, illustrative calculations based on this synthetic data set indicates that, when taking distribution into account, Nordic countries are top-ranked whereas Greece, the Russian Federation and Turkey occupy the bottom positions. The results indicate sizeable losses due to multi-dimensional inequality for OECD member countries. Moreover, there are large differences in the level and composition of multi-dimensional inequality.<BR>L’Indicateur du vivre mieux a été lancé par l’OCDE dans le but de cartographier les multiples dimensions du bien-être dans les pays membres de l’OCDE, le Brasil et la Fédération de Russie. Il ne repose toutefois que sur des mesures agrégées à l’échelle nationale et ne permet donc pas de représenter comment se répartissent les différentes dimensions du bien-être à l’intérieur des pays. Ce document étudie la façon dont un Indicateur du vivre mieux tenant compte de cette répartition pourrait être élaboré et appliqué. À partir de cinq recommandations concrètes sur la conception de l’indicateur, un ensemble d’indices est proposé. Ces indices peuvent être décomposés en éléments interprétables. Un ensemble de microdonnées dense et exhaustif est nécessaire pour construire un indicateur tenant compte de la répartition des dimensions du bien-être, mais ces données ne sont pas encore disponibles pour l’ensemble des pays membres de l’OCDE. Ce document propose donc un ensemble de données « synthétique » qui s’appuie sur des informations relatives aux macro-indicateurs et aux micro-données de l’enquête Gallup World Poll. Même si l’étroitesse des échantillons et autres faiblesses méthodologiques de l’enquête Gallup World Poll peuvent entrainer des risques de biais, des mesures basées sur ces données « synthétiques » indiquent que, lorsqu’on tient compte de la répartition des dimensions du bien-être, les pays nordiques arrivent en tête, tandis que la Grèce, la Fédération de Russie et la Turquie occupent les derniers rangs. Les résultats montrent des pertes importantes dues aux inégalités dans la distribution des différentes dimensions du bien-être entre les pays membres de l’OCDE. En outre, on observe de grandes différences de niveau et de composition au regard des disparités multidimensionnelles.
    Keywords: well-being
    JEL: C43 I31 O1
    Date: 2015–11–05
  8. By: Mogilevskii, Roman; Akramov, Kamiljon
    Abstract: This paper discusses trends in and patterns of trade in agricultural and food products in Central Asia. The analysis shows that these products’ exports lose and imports increase its importance for all economies of Central Asia. Trade policies with regards to agricultural and food products vary greatly in the region from very liberal to quite protectionist. No correlation is observed between the type of trade regime and performance of agricultural production and trade. The paper also provides an overview of the recent changes in trade policies including those related to the creation of the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russian Federation and their potential impact on agricultural and food trade in the region.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2015
  9. By: Burggraf, Christine; Kuhn, Lena; Zhao, Quiran; Teuber, Ramona; Glauben, Thomas
    Abstract: This study provides empirical evidence on the link between economic growth, nutrition, and health in two emerging economies, China and Russia. Both countries have experienced rising average incomes, accompanied by an increasing rate of nutrition-related chronic diseases in recent years. Thereby, the higher growth rate of the occurrence of obesity in China suggests a certain catching-up effect and tremendously increasing problems with chronic diseases in the longer run, especially in urban areas of China. Further, our results indicate that with increasing household incomes over time the demand for carbohydrates decreases, while the demand for meat and dairy products, as well as fruits increases. This is a development generally known as nutrition transition. Finally, our estimation results of a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) underscore the finding that income growth in China and Russia tends to increase the demand for animal-based products much stronger than the demand for carbohydrates.
    Keywords: nutrition transition, food demand, QUAIDS, China, Russia, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Development,
    Date: 2015
  10. By: Kalman Kalotay (UNCTAD); Andrea Elteto (Institute of World Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences); Magdolna Sass (Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences); Csaba Weiner (Institute of World Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences)
    Abstract: This working paper analyses investment by Russian firms in the four Visegrád countries, their motivations and ownership advantages, based mostly on the eclectic paradigm. Beside statistical data, we rely on case studies to present the profile of the most important Russian investors in each host country. The Visegrád countries have attracted less Russian investment than their economic importance would warrant, due to various factors, most notably the joint effects of reticence in host countries and firm strategies that do not necessarily see the subregion as a major priority. Most of the Russian investment examined is market, and to a lesser extent, resource seeking, concentrated in the hydrocarbons, steel and nuclear energy industries, often dominated by state-owned firms. Some innovative private Russian companies, with features similar to developed-country multinationals, can also be identified with marketas well as efficiency-seeking investment. Extant investment theories with the exception of the eclectic paradigm fall short of explaining Russian investment. This paper suggests that further analysis is needed on the role of the home country in stimulating outward investment and directing it to specific locations.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment, multinational enterprises, Central Europe, Russia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia
    JEL: D22 F23 M16
    Date: 2014–12
  11. By: Tatjana Dahlhaus; Justin-Damien Guénette; Garima Vasishtha
    Abstract: Emerging-market economies have become increasingly important in driving global GDP growth over the past 10 to 15 years. This has made timely and accurate assessment of current and future economic activity in emerging markets important for policy-makers not only in these countries but also in advanced economies. This paper uses state-of-theart dynamic factor models (DFMs) to nowcast real GDP growth in five major emerging markets—Brazil, Russia, India, China and Mexico (“BRIC+M”). The DFM framework allows us to efficiently handle data series characterized by different publication lags, frequencies and sample lengths. This framework is particularly suitable for emerging markets for which many indicators are subject to significant publication lags and/or have been compiled only recently. The methodology also allows us to extract model-based “news” from a data release and assess the impact of this news on nowcast revisions. Results show that the DFMs generally outperform simple univariate benchmark models for the BRIC+M. Overall, our results suggest that the DFM framework provides reliable nowcasts for GDP growth for the emerging markets under consideration.
    Keywords: Econometric and statistical methods, International topics
    JEL: C33 C53 E37
    Date: 2015
  12. By: Mirzabaev, Alisher
    Abstract: The majority of rural households in Central Asia have strong dependence on farming incomes for their livelihoods. Any adverse shocks on agricultural production, for example, through extreme weather events, could have negative consequences on their food security. The analysis of the nationally representative agricultural household surveys using quantile regressions by instrumentalizing for endogeneity between consumption and production decisions confirms that poorer households are more vulnerable to the impacts of farming income shocks. Every 1% decrease in the level of their farming profits is likely to lead to 0.52% decrease in their food expenses. A similar decrease for the richest 10% of agricultural households would translate to only 0.39% decrease in food consumption. Key measures to enhance food security among the poor agricultural households in Central Asia were found to be improving market access and diversifying crop portfolios.
    Keywords: Central Asia, poverty, market access, crop diversification, Agricultural Finance, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Security and Poverty,
    Date: 2015

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