nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2015‒10‒17
eleven papers chosen by

  1. Savings and Inflation Using the Example of Russia in 1992 By BLINOV, Sergey
  2. Retail Sector Transformation in Russia By Komendrovskaya, Irina; Bobojonov, Ihtiyor; Glauben, Thomas
  3. Estimating the Relationship between Health and Employment of Russian People in Pensionable Age By Ekaterina A. Klepikova
  4. Multiple criteria analysis of policy alternatives to improve energy efficiency in industry in Russia By Bratanova, Alexandra; Robinson, Jacqueline; Wagner, Liam; Kolegov, Vitaly; Nikitchenko, Aleksey; Nikitchenko, Anna
  5. Actual Problems of Determination Of The Objective Limits of the Prejudgment By Sergey P. Postylyakov
  6. Aufwind im Westen Mittel-, Ost- und Südosteuropas: Wichtige Wachstumsimpulse für Österreich By Mario Holzner
  7. Economic Institutions and the Location Strategies of European Multinationals in their Geographical Neighbourhood By Andrea Ascani; Riccardo Crescenzi; Simona Iammarino
  8. Uzbekistan as an emerging player in the Eurasian wheat belt region: Opportunities and challenges By Bobojonov, Ihtiyor; Djanibekov, Nodir; Voigt, Peter
  9. Underlying Beliefs of Behavioral Intentions Regarding Tourism Enhancement in Georgia By Heiny, Jennifer; Schmidt, Peter; Leonhäuser, Ingrid-Ute
  10. Stairway to Excellence. Country Report: Lithuania By Agne Paliokaite
  11. Violence and political outcomes in Ukraine – Evidence from Sloviansk and Kramatorsk By Tom Coupe; Maksym Obrizan

  1. By: BLINOV, Sergey
    Abstract: Savings are a huge boon for the economy. This means both growth today and prospects for growth tomorrow. This is both an investment resource and a medicine for inflation. However, mistakes made in managing the savings by economic authorities, may turn everything upside down and then the savings become a cause of inflation and many other economic woes. This is exactly what happened in the far-off 1992 in Russia. Two approaches: reliable tools and advantages of the bond type form of savings would enable Russia to quickly create a significant stock of «long» money and increase the GDP and, at the same time, significantly reduce inflation.
    Keywords: Savings, Inflation, Shock Therapy, Transitional Economies, Russia
    JEL: E20 E21 E31 E32 E52 E65 N10 P20 P24
    Date: 2015–10–09
  2. By: Komendrovskaya, Irina; Bobojonov, Ihtiyor; Glauben, Thomas
    Abstract: Russia’s agrifood industry, including processing, wholesale, and retail underwent tremendous changes since the collapse of the Soviet Union. In this transition from the planned to a market economy, supermarkets emerged as important players in Russia, affecting agrifood system via organizational and institutional changes including centralization of procurement from farmers and demanding private standards on product quality and safety.This study examines the penetration of supermarket chains and factors contributing to development of modern retailing in Russia. The panel data at regional level is used in order to investigate the factors influencing on modernization of retail sector in Russia.
    Keywords: Agrifood system, food supply chain, food security, sanctions, import, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy,
    Date: 2015
  3. By: Ekaterina A. Klepikova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper provides an analysis of the labor supply of Russian people in pensionable age. It aims to answer two questions: (1) whether bad health is an important limitation for labor activity and (2) whether a greater pension benefit could be a stimulus for delayed retirement. This is an empirical work based on data of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey - Higher School of Economics (RLMS-HSE) from 2000-2010. Findings suggest that the most important factor of labor supply is income, and it is more significant for people with higher education. Bad health contributes to leaving the labor force, but the effect is smaller than income’. Some policy implications are also suggested based on the empirical results of the study
    Keywords: labor supply, health, pensionable age, postponement of retirement, Russia, RLMS-HSE.
    JEL: C2 J1 J2
    Date: 2015
  4. By: Bratanova, Alexandra; Robinson, Jacqueline; Wagner, Liam; Kolegov, Vitaly; Nikitchenko, Aleksey; Nikitchenko, Anna
    Abstract: Russia set an ambitious energy efficiency goal requiring involvement of all sectors of the economy. It requires specific and efficient public policies at all levels of governance. However, decision making in the energy sector in Russia is complex and characterized by multiple policy objectives, conflicting interest groups and a lack of available quantitative data. This study investigates the decision problem of energy efficiency improvements in the industrial sector – a policy proposed by the Moscow City Government. Multiple criteria analysis (MCA) is tendered as an appropriate evaluation tool. As limited studies exist of the application of MCA in Russia, none – for regional energy systems development, this paper provides a novel solution for regional public management. We adapted the MCA PROMETHEE method and undertook an expert survey to evaluate the policy proposal and develop recommendations. This paper describes the adjustment of the evaluation tool to the existing institutional structure and decision making procedures in Russia. It provides a discussion about the participation of stakeholder groups and determination of policy objectives, options and criteria. The analysis leads to a ranking of preferred policy alternatives to assist policy selection and energy efficiency program development. From this, we recommend partial subsidization of the costs of industrial organisations to implement contracts with energy service companies as the best performing option. More importantly we demonstrate the applicability and usefulness of MCA as a decision support tool for Russian public decision-making. Its wide application is expected to improve public management at both regional and federal levels.
    Keywords: multiple criteria analysis; energy; industry; developing country; Russian regions;
    JEL: O21 Q40 Q48
    Date: 2015–10–10
  5. By: Sergey P. Postylyakov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The article deals with relevant problems of determination of the objective limits of the prejudgment using the prejudgment of the particular types of court rulings as an example. The author concludes that the concept of «circumstances» should be defined as facts and established on their basis legal relations. The author considers that the court orders, the judgments in absentia, the judgments of dismissal due to the approval of the settlement as well as the higher court rulings that verify legality of previous judgments not verifying validity should be excluded from the objective limits of the prejudgment. The author analyzes rules of the draft of the Civil Procedure Code of the Russian Federation of 2000 and comes to the conclusion that Article 61 of the current Civil Procedure Code of the Russian Federation requires to be amended.
    Keywords: prejudgment, civil procedure, objective limits, particular types of court rulings, Russian Federation
    JEL: K41
    Date: 2015
  6. By: Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Zusammenfassung Aufwind im Westen der MOSOEL In den mittel-, ost- und südosteuropäischen Ländern (MOSOEL) klafft der Ausblick für das Wirtschaftswachstum auch weiterhin auseinander für die meisten der neuen EU-Mitgliedstaaten (NMS) wird eine langsame Beschleunigung des BIP-Wachstums beginnend mit diesem Jahr erwartet. Für 2015 soll das Wachstum durchschnittlich auf 3% ansteigen, um 0,2 Prozentpunkte mehr als im Vorjahr. Die Erholung erfolgt um ein Jahr früher als erwartet. Wesentlicher Faktor ist die bessere Entwicklung in der Eurozone. Auch am Westbalkan wird eine (wenn auch weniger dynamische) Verbesserung der Wachstumsaussichten für die gesamte Prognoseperiode 2015-2017 erwartet. Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung 2015 in Weißrussland, Kasachstan, Russland und der Ukraine wird düster ausfallen und zum Teil noch schlechter sein als bisher erwartet. Für diese Länder sind die mittelfristigen Wirtschaftsaussichten auch mit substantiellen Risiken behaftet. Insgesamt sollte aber das verstärkte Wachstum in den MOSOEL für die österreichische Wirtschaft als Nachfrageimpuls dienen. Insbesondere die NMS sind für Österreich von zunehmender Bedeutung.   English Summary Western CESEE countries in the ascendant The outlook for GDP growth in the Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) region remains divergent we expect a gradual acceleration of GDP growth for most of the EU’s new Member States (NMS) starting this year. For 2015 growth is expected to increase to 3% on average, by 0.2 pp more as compared to last year. The recovery comes a year earlier than expected mainly based on favourable developments in the euro area. In the Western Balkans growth prospects will also improve over the whole forecast period 2015-2017, though slightly less dynamically. Growth performance in Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine in 2015, however, will be dismal and partly worse than expected; the medium-term outlook for these countries is also fairly uncertain with considerable downside risks. Overall though, we should expect stronger CESEE growth to act as a demand stimulus for the Austrian economy. The NMS in particular are of increasing importance for Austria.
    Keywords: macroeconomic analysis, international trade, competitiveness, consumption, investment, savings, global financial crisis
    JEL: E20 F34 G01 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52
    Date: 2015–07
  7. By: Andrea Ascani; Riccardo Crescenzi; Simona Iammarino
    Abstract: This paper investigates how the location behaviour of Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) is shaped by the economic institutions of the host countries. The analysis covers a wide set of geographically proximate economies with different degrees of integration with the ‘Old’ 15 European Union (EU) members: New Member States, Accession and Candidate Countries, as well as European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) countries and the Russian Federation. The paper aims to shed new light on the heterogeneity of MNE preferences for the host countries’ regulatory settings (including labour market and business regulation), legal aspects (i.e. protection of property rights and contract enforcement) and the weight of the government in the economy. By employing data on 6,888 greenfield investment projects, the randomcoefficient Mixed Logit analysis here applied shows that, while the quality of the national institutional framework is generally beneficial for the attraction of foreign investment, MNEs preferences over economic institutions are highly heterogeneous across sectors and business functions.
    Keywords: Multinational Enterprises, Economic Institutions, Location Choice, European Union
    JEL: F23 P33 L20 R30
    Date: 2015–07
  8. By: Bobojonov, Ihtiyor; Djanibekov, Nodir; Voigt, Peter
    Abstract: Following the 1991 independence, Uzbekistan launched a program of national grain self-sufficiency supplemented by state subsidies and production targets. This policy measure also turned Uzbekistan from a wheat importer into an exporting country. Grounded on a throughout analysis of the post-1991 data and literature, we reconstruct the development trends in wheat sector of Uzbekistan and analyze whether it can emerge as a new player in food security in the Eurasian wheat belt region. The analysis and the discussions in the study suggest that the country has a potential to become an important supplier of wheat to neighboring countries. Although high-quality rainfed wheat is available from Kazakhstan, the central location and good road connections to the neighboring countries as well as less volatile wheat production under irrigation can provide some comparative advantages to Uzbek wheat producers. However, it is difficult to foreseen the further increase in wheat exports without the state procurement mechanism and interventions in the supply chains. Further improvement of the current procurement mechanism with introduction of market-based intensives to wheat producers is required to increase the production quality and efficiencies and the sustainability of wheat supply chain.
    Keywords: Wheat production, Central Asia, Caucasus, wheat quality, climate change., Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,
    Date: 2015
  9. By: Heiny, Jennifer; Schmidt, Peter; Leonhäuser, Ingrid-Ute
    Abstract: Especially rural areas in Post-Soviet countries are struggling at the poverty line. Additional income sources are essential. In the case of two remote rural regions in the Greater and Lesser Caucasus, one such source is the tourism sector. A structural equation model is applied to assess which influential factors determine the intention of private households to enhance activities in the tourism sector. The Theory of Planned Behavior (AJZEN, 1991) serves as the framework for the analysis. The strongest influence is exerted by subjective norm, followed by perceived behavioral control while attitude fails to have a significant effect on intention. An analysis of the underlying beliefs that guide the formation of the constructs shows that the family has the strongest influence on subjective norm, suggesting the importance of interventions that target not only the individual, but also the social aggregate. Furthermore the model indicates that bank loans can foster the perceived ability of enhancing touristic activities while personal illness is perceived as a significant threat to the behavior.
    Keywords: Theory of Planned Behavior, structural equation modeling, Georgia, tourism, private household, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Labor and Human Capital, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,
    Date: 2015
  10. By: Agne Paliokaite (Visionary Analytics)
    Abstract: In the frame of the Stairway to Excellence project, complex country analysis was performed for the EU MS that joined the EU since 2004, with the objective to assess and corroborate all the qualitative and quantitative data in drawing national/regional FP7 participation patterns, understand the push–pull factors for FP7/H2020 participation and the factors affecting the capacity to absorb cohesion policy funds. This report articulates analysis on selected aspects and country-tailored policy suggestions aiming to tackle the weaknesses identified in the analysis. The report complements the qualitative/ quantitative analysis performed by the IPTS/KfG/S2E team. In order to avoid duplication and cover all the elements required for a sound analysis, the report builds on analytical framework developed by IPTS.
    Keywords: Synergies, Research and Innovation Funding, FP7, Horizon2020, research and Innovation cohesion policy funds, quality of governance of research and innovation system, evaluation and monitoring mechanisms
    Date: 2015–10
  11. By: Tom Coupe (Kyiv School of Economics); Maksym Obrizan (Kyiv School of Economics and University of Duisburg-Essen and CINCH)
    Abstract: In this paper, we study the effects of violence on political outcomes using a survey of respondents in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk – two cities that were affected heavily by the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. We show that experiencing physical damage goes together with lower turnout, a higher probability of considering elections irrelevant and a lower probability of knowing one’s local representatives. We also find that property damage is associated with greater support for pro-Western parties, lower support for keeping Donbas in Ukraine and lower support for compromise as a way to stop the conflict. Our paper thus shows the importance of investigating the impact of different kinds of victimization, as different degrees of victimization can have different, sometimes even conflicting outcomes. Our paper also suggests that one of the more optimistic conclusions of previous studies, that victimization can increase political participation, does not necessarily carry over to Ukraine, which illustrates the importance of country and context-specific studies.
    Keywords: Ukraine, violence, turnout, war
    JEL: P26 D72
    Date: 2015–10

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