nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2015‒09‒11
fourteen papers chosen by

  1. Сбережения и инфляция на примере России 1992 года By BLINOV, Sergey
  2. Russian Federation: Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
  3. Republic of Belarus: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation By International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
  4. Republic of Latvia: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation By International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
  5. Will Belarus fully benefit from the Eurasian Economic Union? By Sierz Naurodski; Uladzimir Valetka
  6. Social Programmes and Job Promotion for the BRICS Youth By Pedro Lara de Arruda; Ashleigh Kate Slingsby
  7. 08-2015 Выступление зав.лабораторией ИНП РАН Ю.А.Щербанина в программе Точка зрения By Щербанин Ю.А.
  8. IMF Lending and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Ukraine By Roman Kononenko
  9. Time-varying individual risk attitudes over the Great Recession: A comparison of Germany and Ukraine By T. Dohmen; H. Lehmann; N. Pignatti
  10. Observações preliminares sobre os sistemas de Seguridade Social e Saúde dos países do BRICS By Pedro Lara de Arruda; Mary MacLennan
  11. Preliminary Observations on Social Security and Health Care Systems of the BRICS By Pedro Lara de Arruda; Mary MacLennan
  12. A Juventude dos BRICS, a Crise Financeira e a Promoção de Emprego By Ashleigh Kate Slingsby; Pedro Lara de Arruda
  13. Republic of Latvia: Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
  14. The BRICS Youth, the Financial Crisis and Job Promotion By Ashleigh Kate Slingsby; Pedro Lara de Arruda

  1. By: BLINOV, Sergey
    Abstract: Savings are a huge boon for the economy. This means both growth today and prospects for growth tomorrow. This is both an investment resource and a medicine for inflation. However, mistakes made in managing the savings by economic authorities, may turn everything upside down and then the savings become a cause of inflation and many other economic woes. This is exactly what happened in the far-off 1992 in Russia. Two approaches: reliable tools and advantages of the bond type form of savings would enable Russia to quickly create a significant stock of «long» money and increase the GDP and, at the same time, significantly reduce inflation.
    Keywords: savings, inflation, shock therapy, Russia
    JEL: E20 E21 E31 E32 E52 E65 N10
    Date: 2015–09–07
  2. By: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
    Abstract: Russian Federation: Selected Issues
    Keywords: Exchange rate regimes;Exchange rates;Financial sector;Fiscal policy;Fiscal sustainability;Inflation targeting;Monetary policy;Oil prices;Russian Federation;Russian Federation;Selected Issues Papers;revenues, perpetuity, future, exchange
    Date: 2015–08–03
  3. By: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
    Abstract: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Belarus continues to be highly vulnerable to economic shocks, as was illustrated by the turbulence in foreign exchange and debt markets in late 2014. Frequent bouts of expansionary macroeconomic policies, in a context of deep structural rigidities, have fueled inflation and external imbalances and left Belarus dependent on ad hoc external support. In 2015, growth has slowed sharply as high uncertainty, reductions in real incomes, administrative measures, and declining trade with Russia weighed on activity. The outlook is for a recession and continued external pressures. With Russia in a downturn, the Belarusian economy is projected to contract by 2.25 percent in 2015, led by falling exports.
    Keywords: Belarus;exchange, exchange rate, inflation, national bank, reserves
    Date: 2015–05–29
  4. By: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
    Abstract: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Latvia’s strong recovery has recently slowed in the face of sluggish growth in the euro area and deteriorating economic conditions in Russia amid rising geopolitical tensions. GDP growth decelerated to 2.4 percent in 2014 reflecting weak demand and the prolonged closure of a steel manufacturer. In 2015, the weak external environment, particularly the sharp slowdown in Russia, will continue to weigh on exports and investment. This is expected to be mitigated, but not fully offset, by higher disposable income owing to lower oil prices and robust real wages, the reopening of the steel manufacturer, and the accommodative monetary stance of the European Central Bank.
    Keywords: Latvia;inflation, market, deposits, monetary fund, investment
    Date: 2015–05–04
  5. By: Sierz Naurodski; Uladzimir Valetka
    Abstract: Eurasian Economic Union, an ambitious project intended to benefit the countries in the post-soviet zone, evokes questions about its future. Is pulling together regional cooperation and tightening its relationship with Russia beneficial to Belarus in the long run? Having analyzed the recent trends in trade, labor and capital flows, Sierž Naurodski and Uladzimir Valetka shed light on the highly questionable nature of potential benefits the Union could bring to Belarussian economy within its current macroeconomic and institutional framework
    Keywords: Trade, economic integration and globalization, Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia
    JEL: F10 F15
    Date: 2015–06
  6. By: Pedro Lara de Arruda (IPC-IG); Ashleigh Kate Slingsby (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: Youth as a concept engenders a multiplicity of definitions. This multiplicity and the contextspecific nature of the term are recognised internationally. Therefore, in this paper we begin by exploring the diverse definitions of youth among prominent international organisations and the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa). The paper then provides insight into the re-politicisation of the youth category in light of the 2008 financial crisis and the post-2015 sustainable development agenda, which have prompted an increasing focus on the creation of decent and productive employment for youth. (...)
    Keywords: Social Programmes, Job Promotion, BRICS, Youth
    Date: 2014–10
  7. By: Щербанин Ю.А. (Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования)
    Date: 2015–08–27
  8. By: Roman Kononenko
    Abstract: This study uses Vector Autoregression (VAR) Methodology as well as Vector Error Correction (VEC) Methodology to examine the existence and direction of causality between economic growth and IMF lending for Ukraine. The paper examines the IMF lending data for the period of 1991-2010. Robust empirical analysis indicates that IMF lending has a negative effect of on Ukraine's economic growth in the short term. Policy implications of this finding are that, despite short-run decline in economic growth, IMF lending can result in a long-run sustainable growth for Ukraine. For this, policymakers need to ensure that fund's money are used not only to cover budget's deficit, but also to finance institutional reforms.
    Date: 2015–09
  9. By: T. Dohmen; H. Lehmann; N. Pignatti
    Abstract: We use the panel data of the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and of the Ukrainian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (ULMS) to investigate whether risk attitudes have primary (exogenous) determinants that are valid in different stages of economic development and in a different structural context, comparing a mature capitalist economy and a transition economy. We then analyze the stability of the risk measures over time. Between 2007 and 2012 we have the Great Recession, which had a mild impact in the German labor market while it had a more profound impact on the Ukrainian labor market. This enables us to investigate whether and how the crisis impacted on the risk attitudes in the two countries. By focusing on self-employment we also investigate whether the reduced willingness to take risks as a consequence of the Great Recession affects labor market dynamics and outcomes.
    JEL: J64 J65 P50
    Date: 2015–09
  10. By: Pedro Lara de Arruda (IPC-IG); Mary MacLennan (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: "Este texto resume algumas observações preliminares da pesquisa que investiga políticas de seguridade social e acesso a saúde entre os países do BRICS. A pesquisa reúne informações sobre o design institucional e os propósitos dos sistemas de seguridade social e acesso à saúde dos países BRICS."(..)
    Keywords: Seguridade Social, Saúde, BRICS
    Date: 2015–06
  11. By: Pedro Lara de Arruda (IPC-IG); Mary MacLennan (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: "This summary provides some preliminary findings of research on social security and health care policies in the BRICS countries. Thus far, our research demonstrates some basic institutional information about the social security and health care policies of the BRICS countries, as well as about their complementary policy aims." (...)
    Keywords: Social Security, Health Care Systems, BRICS
    Date: 2015–06
  12. By: Ashleigh Kate Slingsby (IPC-IG); Pedro Lara de Arruda (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: "Desde a crise financeira de 2008, o foco na criação de empregos dignos e produtivos para a juventude tem aumentado. Recentemente, o movimento foi incorporado formalmente na criação da agenda de Objetivos de Desenvolvimento Sustentável pós-2015, sob a dimensão central de número 3: Desenvolvimento social inclusivo."(...)
    Keywords: Juventude, BRICS, Crise Financeira, Promoção de Emprego
    Date: 2015–02
  13. By: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
    Abstract: This Selected Issues paper examines the prospects for Latvia continuing to rapidly reduce its distance from the productivity frontier. It looks at the empirical record of countries that have in the past attained a similar relative level of income to that of Latvia at present, to gauge the plausibility of the forecast for Latvia’s medium term GDP growth of about 4 percent per year. It highlights that more than one-third of the countries reaching a similar stage of development managed to sustain higher subsequent growth. The paper also confirms the importance of investment and structural reforms for Latvia’s future convergence, using a sector-level analysis.
    Keywords: Latvia;productivity, investment, productivity growth, labor, employment
    Date: 2015–05–04
  14. By: Ashleigh Kate Slingsby (IPC-IG); Pedro Lara de Arruda (IPC-IG)
    Keywords: BRICS, Youth, Financial Crisis, Job Promotion
    Date: 2015–02

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