nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2015‒09‒05
eleven papers chosen by

  1. Reflections on a Survey of Global Perceptions of International Leaders and World Powers By Saich, Anthony
  2. Experience in Analysis and Forecasting of Cyclical Fluctuations in the Economy (On the Example of the National Bureau of Economic Research in Application to the Economy and the Anti-Crisis Policy of Russia) By Airapetyan, Mamikon; Aleschenko, Natalya; Arushanyan, Vitaliy
  3. Development Models of Legal Regulation of the Processing of Personal Data in the Public Sector in the Russian Federation By Braude-Zolotarev, M.; Voloshkin; Serbina, E.; Negorodov, Vitaliy
  4. Gender gap in pay in the Russian Federation : twenty years later, still a concern By Atencio,Andrea; Posadas,Josefina
  5. The role of the Eurasian wheat belt to regional and global food security By Stephen Langrell; Sebastian Mary; Pavel Ciaian; Sergio Gomez y Paloma; Natalya SHAGAIDA; Renata Yanbykh; Peter Voight; Ashok K. Mishra; Amaranth Tripathi; Holly Wang; Thomas Fellmann; Sergio René Araujo Enciso; Jacques Delince; Guna Salputra; Thomas Fellmann; Fabien Santini; Robert M'barek; Marco Artavia
  6. Russian Federation: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation By International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
  7. Identification and Classification of Objects of Accounting and Attributes of Objects of Accounting in the State Information Resources By Braude-Zolotarev, M.; Voloshkin; Serbina, E.; Negorodov, Vitaliy
  8. Water Resources 2030: Policy Recommendations By Liliana N. Proskuryakova
  9. Evaluating underlying inflation metrics for Russia By Deryugina, Elena; Ponomarenko, Alexey; Sinyakov , Andrey; Sorokin , Constantine
  10. High Liquidity Creation and Bank Failures By Zuzana Fungacova; Rima Turk; Laurent Weill
  11. Puzzle of Corporate Diversification Efficiency in Bric Countries By Svetlana Grigorieva; Georgii Gorbatov

  1. By: Saich, Anthony (Harvard University)
    Abstract: A recent survey asks citizens from 30 countries for their views on 10 influential national leaders who have a global impact. There are many rich findings among the data. However, two general trends stand out. The first is that the responses are influenced by geopolitics. Differences between nations and national leaders are clearly reflected in the attitudes of their own citizens. Thus, it is plain that the tensions between China and Japan result in very poor evaluations of China and its leader by Japanese citizens and vice versa. Second, there is a correlation in responses between the nature of the political system and citizen opinions of their own nation's leader. On the whole, in multiparty systems or genuine two-party systems such as in Europe and the US, citizens are more critical of their national leaders and policies than is the case in those nations where politics is less contested. Not surprisingly, given the role that the US plays in global politics, President Obama enjoys the greatest awareness among respondents, receiving the highest percentage in 23 of the 30 countries (see Figure One). With the exception of only three countries, awareness of him exceeds 90%. For the other leaders, awareness tends to be regionally based. Thus, Chancellor Merkel is well known in Europe and Russia but far less so in Africa, Australasia, and Asia. President Xi Jinping is well known in Asia but, perhaps surprisingly, only 48.8% of Russian respondents and 59.8% of Vietnamese respondents were aware of him. This is despite the attempts to build a close relationship between China and Russia and the tensions that have existed between China and Vietnam. Prime Minister Abe is most clearly known in Korea and China but is not well recognized across much of the rest of the world. However, recognition does not mean approval, as opinions about Abe in China and Korea are extremely negative, as we shall see below. The same holds for President Putin who is well known across Europe but viewed poorly. He is less well-known in Africa but citizens of China, Japan, and Korea are well aware of him.
    Date: 2014–12
  2. By: Airapetyan, Mamikon (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Aleschenko, Natalya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Arushanyan, Vitaliy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The development of the global and national economies, including the economies of Russia, held in the framework of large - 34-year-old infrastructure, small - a 4.3-year business and midget - 6-month tactical global economic cycles. World economy and country, including the Russian economy, including sectors, industries and enterprises exist simultaneously in the same rhythm and mode of global economic development - '200-year cyclical waves". In a stand-alone assessment tacos th development are distorted and do not reflect an adequate picture of the economic re-majoring, and therefore can not form the basis of the analysis and forecasting of the development. At the turn of XIX-XX centuries. It adds two simultaneous and large areas of "experience analysis and forecasting cyclical fluctuations in the economy." The first direction is represented institutionally NBER since 1920, which led to the domination of the American school in the world of business cycles, systems analysis and forecasting of the economy. Second - Russian - the direction has no institutional representation, although represented by such large - world-renowned scientists in the field of studies of economic cycles and crises, as M. Tugan-Baranowski, Bunyatyan M. and N. Kondratiev. This situation requires a radical revision aimed at "legalization" of this trend in the Russian and world economic thought in the theory and practice of public administration. This study developed a methodological model of the global economic - cycle infrastructure, the application of which will effectively analyse and predict cyclical fluctuations, to conduct an adequate anti-crisising policies. Experience in analysis and forecasting of cyclical fluctuations in the economy (for example, the National Bureau of Economic Research in the annex to the economy and the anti-crisis policy of Russia).
    Keywords: global economic cycles, 200-year cyclical waves
    Date: 2015–04
  3. By: Braude-Zolotarev, M. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Voloshkin (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Serbina, E. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Negorodov, Vitaliy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: Regulation of processing of personal data is one of the most pressing issues of the current legal regulation of processing and using information. A separate aspect is the processing of personal data in the public sector, since at the disposal of of state and local government there is a vast array of information about citizens of the Russian Federation, which is actively used in the performance of public functions.
    Keywords: personal data, legal regulation, public sector
    Date: 2015–05
  4. By: Atencio,Andrea; Posadas,Josefina
    Abstract: This paper decomposes the gender gap in pay in the Russian Federation along the earnings distribution for the period 1996?2011. The analysis uses a reweighted, recentered influence function decomposition that allows estimating the contribution of each covariate on the wage structure and composition effects along the earnings distribution. The paper finds that women are in flat career paths compared with men; the importance of observable characteristics that proxy human capital in the gender pay gap decrease along the earnings distribution; and if women?s pay took into account their educational degrees as much as men?s, the gender pay gap would disappear or even reverse at the top of the earnings distribution. The results suggest that women at the bottom of the earnings distribution should be helped to increase their labor market skills, and women at the top of the distribution should be helped to break the glass ceiling and be remunerated for their skills to the same extent as men.
    Keywords: Labor Markets,Population Policies,Labor Policies,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems,Gender and Development
    Date: 2015–08–27
  5. By: Stephen Langrell (European Commission – Directorate General for Health and Food Safety); Sebastian Mary (DePaul University – Department of Economics); Pavel Ciaian (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Sergio Gomez y Paloma (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Natalya SHAGAIDA (RANEPA, Moscow, Russia); Renata Yanbykh (VIAPI, Moscow, Russia); Peter Voight (European Commission - Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs); Ashok K. Mishra (Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA); Amaranth Tripathi (Institute for Economic Growth, Delhi, India); Holly Wang (Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA); Thomas Fellmann (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Sergio René Araujo Enciso (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Jacques Delince (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Guna Salputra (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Thomas Fellmann (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Fabien Santini (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Robert M'barek (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Marco Artavia (European Commission – JRC - IPTS)
    Abstract: Food security remains to be a major societal concern. In the light of the current expectations of population growth, world food production has to be massively increased to sustain the associated food demand rise. While agricultural productivity was rising during recent decades in the US, Europe and also in some developing countries, the corresponding growth rates lately appeared to be slowing down. In fact, the only world region with a significant amount of arable land, which currently is not under cultivation and which at the same time is, moreover, experiencing rising productivity figures, is the so called 'Eurasian wheat belt', comprising of Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and the Central Asian countries, namely Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Kirgizstan. In this light, the Joint Research Centre and the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development organized a thematic workshop, held during 20 – 22 May 2014 in Istanbul/Turkey, set up to bring experts on the matter together and to discuss to what extent these countries could play a role for regional and international food security. Following the workshop analysis and discussion, this report provides a comprehensive technical overview of the wheat production, and the main factors to achieve full production potential across the Eurasian wheat belt with regards to national, regional and global issues of cereal supply and food security in evolving global markets. It reviews key horizontal issues, such as land policy, credit and finance, privatization, farm structures, social consequences of transition, environmental challenges, against the backdrop of agrarian reforms implemented during the transition period. In addition the report explores production potential and corresponding institutional and policy restrictions in a series of Eurasian countries. Finally, the report closes with expert opined policy-relevant conclusions as a basis for policy suggestions and recommendations.
    Keywords: Food security; Eurasia; CIS; Wheat; Transition; Land reform; Agricultural policy; Agricultural markets; Russia; Ukraine; Kazakhstan.
    JEL: Q02 Q13 Q15 Q18
    Date: 2015–08
  6. By: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
    Abstract: KEY ISSUES AND RECOMMENDATIONS Context. Growth was anemic in 2014, reflecting preexisting structural bottlenecks exacerbated by geopolitical uncertainty and sanctions. The ruble depreciated for the most part of 2014 and came under severe pressures at the end of the year due to the sharp decline in oil prices and the intensification of sanctions. As a result, inflation accelerated sharply. In response, the shift to a flexible exchange rate was accelerated and monetary policy was tightened significantly. Measures to stabilize the banking system were introduced, including a bank capital support plan. The authorities’ policy response stabilized the economy. However, structural reforms have remained stalled. Near-term macroeconomic policy mix. The fiscal policy stance for 2015 appropriately allows for limited stimulus. Monetary policy normalization should continue at a prudent pace, commensurate with the decline in underlying inflation and inflation expectations. The size of the bank capital support program appears to be sufficiently large, but the parameters of the program should be adjusted to strengthen incentives for banks to seek private capital and reduce cost to the public sector. Medium-term policy challenges. An ambitious and credible medium-term fiscal consolidation program is necessary to adjust to lower oil prices. Changes to the fiscal rule should be considered to support medium-term fiscal sustainability. Boosting potential growth will require implementation of structural reforms. This would include (i) strengthening governance and protection of property rights; (ii) lowering administrative barriers and regulation; (iii) increasing competition in domestic markets; (iv) enhancing customs administration and reducing trade barriers; and (v) improving the transparency and efficiency of public investment procedures. Reinvigorating the privatization agenda, as soon as market conditions permit, would enhance economic efficiency. A deeper and more efficient financial system would improve the allocation of capital thereby enhancing economic growth.
    Keywords: Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Bank resolution;Article IV consultation reports;Economic recession;Financial sector;Fiscal policy;Fiscal reforms;Press releases;Monetary policy;Russian Federation;Staff Reports;oil prices, inflation, monetary fund, debt, balance of payments
    Date: 2015–08–03
  7. By: Braude-Zolotarev, M. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Voloshkin (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Serbina, E. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Negorodov, Vitaliy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: This work - the result of a study to identify approaches to regulating the activities of the state to conduct public information resources. As part of the work: We studied the existing approaches to the concept and discussed the value of the state information resources; Studied species and the functioning of the state information resources; The existing approaches to the concept and certain accounting items of state information resources; Researched the notion of objects of primary legal registration of state information resources as a special type of accounting items of state information resources; We studied the concept and possible types of attributes of objects of accounting for government information resources; We made proposals for amendments to the current legislation of the Russian Federation in order to optimize the functioning of the state information resources.
    Keywords: government information resources, the state information system, accounting objects of state information resources, interdepartmental information communication
    Date: 2015–05
  8. By: Liliana N. Proskuryakova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The Foresight study presented in this paper is devoted to the sustainable use of water resources in Russia. The authors analyse possible trajectories of development in the three thematic areas (i) sustainability of water systems; (ii) water use by households and in industry; and (iii) new water products and services. The Foresight methods cover expert interviews and seminars, desk research, and policy analysis. The state and corporate policy recommendations for the water sector offered in this study correspond with the water scenarios earlier identified by Saritas et al.: “Nearly ideal future”, “Losses and accidents”, “Problem conservation”, and “National Priority” [Saritas et al., 2015]. For each of these four scenarios, policy recommendations for water companies were identified covering new solutions (including technological innovations), new values and competencies, organisational changes, modernisation of the infrastructure, financial issues, and legal and regulatory changes. Moreover, we recommend certain policy measures and approaches to state policy in the water sector. The paper concludes with the main directions and instruments for the sector’s development, which should be planned and implemented jointly by the government and businesses, as well as other stakeholders (organisations and people).
    Keywords: water resources, sustainable water systems, water use, water goods, water services, scenarios, water policy, water governance, water management, Foresight, Russia.
    JEL: H4 H5 H87 I30 M11 R20 R52 Q01 Q02 Q15 Q18 Q22 Q25 Q26 Q27 Q53 Q54 Q55
    Date: 2015
  9. By: Deryugina, Elena (BOFIT); Ponomarenko, Alexey (BOFIT); Sinyakov , Andrey (BOFIT); Sorokin , Constantine (BOFIT)
    Abstract: We apply several tests to the underlying inflation metrics used in practice by central banks and/or proposed in the scientific literature, in an attempt to find the best-performing indicators. We find that although there is no single best measure of underlying inflation, indicators calculated on the basis of dynamic factor models are generally among the best performers. These best performers not only outdid the simpler traditional underlying indicators (trimmed and exclusion-based measures) but also proved to be economically meaningful and inter-pretable.
    Keywords: underlying inflation; core inflation; monetary inflation; dynamic factor model; Russia
    JEL: C32 E31 E32 E52
    Date: 2015–08–18
  10. By: Zuzana Fungacova; Rima Turk; Laurent Weill
    Abstract: We formulate the “High Liquidity Creation Hypothesis†(HLCH) that a proliferation in the core activity of bank liquidity creation increases failure probability. We test the HLCH in the context of Russian banking, which provides a natural field experiment due to numerous failures experienced over the past decade. Using Berger and Bouwman’s (2009) liquidity creation measures as a comprehensive proxy for overall bank output, we find that high liquidity creation significantly increases the probability of bank failure; this finding survives multiple robustness checks. Our results suggest that regulatory authorities can mitigate systemic distress and reduce the costs of bank failures to society through early identification of high liquidity creators and enhanced monitoring of their funding and investment activities.
    Keywords: Banking sector;Bank liquidity;Default;Russian Federation;Liquidity Creation, Bank Failures, bank, banks, loans, capital, Government Policy and Regulation,
    Date: 2015–05–06
  11. By: Svetlana Grigorieva (National Research University Higher School); Georgii Gorbatov (National Research University Higher School)
    Abstract: Researchers have long tried to define the impact of corporate diversification on firm value. Academic papers mainly concentrate on the effects of corporate diversification in mature markets while its consequences in emerging capital markets are less explored. This article presents the results of an empirical analysis of corporate diversification strategies of a sample of companies from BRIC countries that expanded via acquisitions during 2000–2013. We contribute to the existing literature by examining the effects of corporate diversification on firm value during the pre- and post-crisis periods. In line with other studies, we distinguish between related and unrelated diversification and in contrast to them we single out and separately analyze horizontal, conglomerate and vertical acquisitions. Based on a sample of 319 deals initiated by companies from BRIC countries, we found positive (3.32% and 9.01%) and statistically significant cumulative abnormal returns for conglomerate acquisitions during the pre- and post-crisis periods, correspondingly. We also found that the market reacts positively and statistically significant to the announcements of horizontal and vertical integration only during the pre-crisis period.
    Keywords: corporate diversification, firm value, conglomerate acquisitions, vertical integration, emerging capital markets
    JEL: G14 G34 L25
    Date: 2015

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