nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2015‒07‒04
25 papers chosen by

  1. Investments in fixed assets in Russia in 2014 By Olga Izryadnova
  2. Russia’s Macrostructure of Production in 2014 By Olga Izryadnova
  3. Russia’s Socioeconomic Policy: Emergence of New Horizons By Vladimir Mau
  4. The Decomposition of Russia's GDP Growth Rate in 1999–2015 By Sergey Drobyshevsky; Maria Kazakova
  5. Russia’s Inter-budgetary Relations and Sub-national Finances in 2014 By Arseny Mamedov; Andrey Alaev; Alexander Deryugin
  6. Russia’s State Budget in 2014 By Sergey Belev; Maria Deshko; Arseny Mamedov; Evgenia Fomina
  7. The Living Standards of Russia's Population in 2014 By Svetlana Misikhina
  8. Migration Processes in Russia in 2014 By Lilia Karachurina
  9. The State of science and innovation in Russia in 2014 By Irina Dezhina
  10. Russian Agriculture: the impact of sanctions By Natalia Karlova; Vasily Uzun; Natalia Shagaida; Renata Yanbykh
  11. Russia’s Investments in Fixed Assets in 2014 By Olga Izryadnova
  12. Russia’s Money Markets and Financial Institutions in 2014 By Alexander Abramov
  13. Russia’s Oil and Gas Sector in 2014 By Yuri Bobylev
  14. Russia’s Foreign Trade in 2014 By Nadezhda Volovik
  15. Russia’s Market for Municipal and Subfederal Borrowings in 2014 By Artem Shadrin
  16. The Higher Education in 2014: inconsistence of reform measures By Tatiana Klyachko
  17. Russia’s Monetary and Fiscal Policy in 2014 By Alexandra Bozhechkova; Pavel Trunin; Michael Khromov; Alexander Knobel; Anna Kiyutsevskaya
  18. The Russian Banking Sector in 2014 By Mikhail Khromov
  19. Bank Ownership And Cost Efficiency In Russia, Revisited By Mikhail Mamonov; Andrei Vernikov
  20. Russian Industrial Enterprises in 2014 By Sergey Tsukhlo
  21. Internationalization Of Regional Clusters: Theoretical And Empirical Issues By Ekaterina Islankina
  22. How does parenthood affect life satisfaction in Russia? By Mikucka, Malgorzata
  23. The Ant In A Russian Sample: Testing The Independence Of Attention Networks By Dmitry Lyusin
  24. Aufwind im Westen Mittel-, Ost- und Südosteuropas: Wichtige Wachstumsimpulse für Österreich By Mario Holzner
  25. 移行経済における中央銀行の独立性とインフレーション抑制効果−−メタ分析−− By 上垣, 彰; 岩﨑, 一郎

  1. By: Olga Izryadnova (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with domestic capital investments in Russia in 2014.
    Keywords: Russian economy, fixed assets, investment
    JEL: F34 G24
    Date: 2015
  2. By: Olga Izryadnova (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with Russia’s marcoeconomic structure. The author analyzes major trends and drivers, major GDP characteristics, changes in GDP structure, production development and structure by type of economic activity.?
    Keywords: Russian economy; Russian GDP, industrial production, production structure
    JEL: O11 G18 G28
    Date: 2014
  3. By: Vladimir Mau (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The global crisis, which first emerged in 2007–2008, has remained the major factor determining the socioeconomic development of the world’s leading countries, Russia including. In this case, we view a crisis not as a phase in the cyclical fluctuations between growth and decline (or acceleration and slowdown) as part of the development of a given country or group of countries. Instead, we are speaking of a sufficiently lengthy turbulence period when, as a result of some profound shifts, a new economic growth model comes to the fore and begins to strongly influence the socioeconomic situation and the global economic and political equilibriums.
    Keywords: Russian economy; economic growth;
    JEL: O52 P27
    Date: 2015
  4. By: Sergey Drobyshevsky (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Maria Kazakova (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The results of the estimates obtained using the Gaidar Institute method of decomposing Russia’s GDP growth rates show that in 2015 all of the components of economic growth rates will make them negative. Furthermore, the current economic contraction is mostly of structural nature induced by the contraction of labor force and capital, as well as the stagnation of the total factor productivity. Additionally, in 2015, the average annual price of crude oil is more likely to fall below the long-time average annual, thereby making negative the foreign trade component of GDP growth rates. The market-determined component of GDP growth rates in 2015 will remain negative and even lower than that in 2014, being indicative of a stronger cyclical economic contraction in Russia. Therefore, the actual GDP appears to be below the potential value.
    Keywords: Russian economy; Russian GDP, decomposition
    JEL: F10 F14 F15 F40
    Date: 2015
  5. By: Arseny Mamedov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Andrey Alaev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Alexander Deryugin (RANEPA)
    Abstract: This paper deals with Russia's inter-budgetary relations and sub-national finances
    Keywords: Russian economy; fiscal relations; subnational finances; federal budget; road funds; subnational budgets
    JEL: H5
    Date: 2015
  6. By: Sergey Belev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Maria Deshko (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Arseny Mamedov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Evgenia Fomina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with Russia's federal budget
    Keywords: Russian economy, budget parameters, budgetary system, budget outlays, revenues, public debt
    JEL: E62 H20 H50 H61 H70
    Date: 2015
  7. By: Svetlana Misikhina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Over 2014, the population’s real disposable income constituted 99.0% of its 2013 level. However, it posted growth in 2008 recession year. Growth rates of salaries in the budget-funded sphere went down. Over 2014, the level of inequality somewhat declined by comparison with 2013 level. The poverty level over the first 9 months of 2014 remained without change vis-a-vis the corresponding period of 2013. Noticeable reduction of the population’s real income and households consumption as well as small-scale of the poverty level is forecasted in 2015.
    Keywords: Russian economy; personal income; poverty; consumption, living standard, Index Gini
    JEL: I31 I32
    Date: 2015
  8. By: Lilia Karachurina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: In 2014, both sudden growth in public interest in migration issues and explosive increase in the number of statutory acts initiated in that field were observed. A new surge of interest in migration was triggered by the Biryulovo developments in October and the election campaign of the Mayor of Moscow which took place a little earlier. This paper deals with a wide range of migration issues. ?
    Keywords: Russian economy; migration; labor migration; domestic migration
    JEL: J11 J61 J62 F22
    Date: 2015
  9. By: Irina Dezhina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: In 2014, key events in the field of science were unfolding around the continuing reform of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) and the associated assessment and restructuring of academic institutions, together with the first competitive tenders run by the Russian Science Foundation (RSF) and the creation of a new list of priorities for scientific and technological development in Russia. Thus, last year could be considered transitional, when the new departments responsible for science development were being structured and their activities were adapting to the new system of management. Innovation went into a decline, the rate of which had increased by the end of the year. No new instruments of innovation policy were introduced and the state of innovation was being significantly affected by the general conditions of economic activity, the business climate and some regulatory measures that were not even directly related to public support for innovation.
    Keywords: Science in Russia, innovation, academic institutions, mobility of scientific personnel, technology platforms
    JEL: O32 O38
    Date: 2015
  10. By: Natalia Karlova (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Vasily Uzun (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Natalia Shagaida (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Renata Yanbykh (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with the issues related to restrictions imposed by the Russian government on import of agricultural products.
    Keywords: Russian economy, Russian agricultural production, sanctions
    Date: 2015
  11. By: Olga Izryadnova (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with domestic capital investments in Russia in 2014.
    Keywords: Russian economy, domestic investment, fixed assets
    JEL: F34 G24
    Date: 2014
  12. By: Alexander Abramov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with a wide scope of issues, starting with the post-crisis recovery of Russia's financial market. The author analyzes the market for shares issued by Russian companies, investigates dependence on the global conjuncture of prices and inflow and outflow of foreign portfolio investment. He also studies currency exchange rate, looks at the competition on the domestic share market, and analyzes preliminary results of the merger of the RTS and MICEX. The article deals with the market for ruble-denominated bonds. The author provides analysis of financial market risks and looks at the development of Russia's domestic savings system.
    Keywords: Russia's financial market; portfolio investment; exchange rate; share market; financial institutions; bond market;
    JEL: J14 G15 G32 E44
    Date: 2015
  13. By: Yuri Bobylev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Oil and gas comprise the main sector of the Russian economy that continues to play a key role in shaping the state budget revenues and the balance of trade. In 2013, against the background of continuing high global prices for oil and gas, petroleum production in Russia reached its highest level since 1990, and the export of oil and petroleum products reached a historic high. However, there was then a slowdown in petroleum production and a worsening of conditions for its production. In 2013, in order to create appropriate conditions for the further development of the oil and gas sector legislative solutions were adopted involving tax incentives for the development of resources where oil recovery was difficult, the differentiation of gas production taxation and the application of a special tax regime for deposits being developed on the continental shelf, together with a liberalisation of the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG)
    Keywords: Russian economy; oil world prices; oil production structure; oil and gas exports; tax regulation of the oil and gas sector;
    JEL: L71 L72
    Date: 2014
  14. By: Nadezhda Volovik (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with the broad specter of Russia's foreign trade issues. The authors analyze major indicators, geographical profile regulation and the terms of Russia's foreign trade.
    Keywords: Russian economy; foreign trade; Russia's foreign trade regulations, trade turnover;
    JEL: F10 F13 F19
    Date: 2014
  15. By: Artem Shadrin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with Russia’s market for municipal and sub-federal borrowings.
    Keywords: Russian economy; municipalities, municipal debt, borrowing
    JEL: H74 H76 H77
    Date: 2015
  16. By: Tatiana Klyachko (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with a wide range of educational system in Russia: higher education, vocational training, secondary education.
    Keywords: Russian educational institutions, educational reform
    JEL: I21 I22 I23 I24 I25 I28
    Date: 2015
  17. By: Alexandra Bozhechkova (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Pavel Trunin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Michael Khromov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Alexander Knobel (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Anna Kiyutsevskaya (RANEPA)
    Abstract: This paper deals with Russia's monetary policy in 2014
    Keywords: Russian economy; monetary policymoney market; inflation; balance of payments; exchange rate;
    JEL: E31 E43 E44 E51 E58 E52
    Date: 2015
  18. By: Mikhail Khromov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with Russia's banking sector in 2014. The author focuses on relationship between banks and corporate customers, foreign transactions in the banking sector, banking regulation
    Keywords: Russian economy; banking sector; foreign transactions; banking regulation
    JEL: E41 E51 E58 E21 E24
    Date: 2015
  19. By: Mikhail Mamonov (National Research University Higher School); Andrei Vernikov (National Research University Higher School)
    Abstract: This paper adds to the literature on banking in transition with regard to the comparative efficiency of public, private and foreign banks. We perform stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) of Russian bank-level quarterly data from 2005 to 2013. The method of computation of comparative cost efficiency is amended to control for the effect of the revaluations of foreign currency items in bank balance sheets. All public banks are split into the core and other state-controlled banks. We employ the generalized method of moments to estimate a set of distance functions measuring the observed differences in the SFA scores of banks and bank clusters, depending on the heterogeneity in risk preference and asset structure. These distance functions explain the changes in bank efficiency rankings. Our results on comparative bank efficiency are qualitatively different from those in mainstream papers. The efficiency scores of Russian banks are higher and less volatile, and spreads between the scores of different bank types are narrower than hitherto believed. Foreign banks appear as the least cost-efficient type of market participants, while the core state banks are, on average, nearly as efficient as domestic private banks. We suggest that foreign banks are capable of being more cost efficient than others if they increase loans-to-assets ratios above the sample median level. Core state banks, conversely, lead in terms of cost efficiency if their loans-to-assets ratio falls below the sample median level. Our approach is potentially applicable to the analysis of bank efficiency in other dollarized emerging markets
    Keywords: banks, comparative efficiency, SFA, state-controlled banks, Russia
    JEL: G21 P23 P34 P52
    Date: 2015
  20. By: Sergey Tsukhlo (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The section is prepared using data of monthly business surveys conducted by the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (IEP) among managers of industrial enterprises since September 1992. The surveys are based on the European harmonized methodology and encompass the entire territory of the Russian Federation. The size of the panel is about 1000 enterprises that employ over 13% of the total number of employed in industry. The panel is biased towards large enterprises in each of the selected branches. The rate of response to questionnaires ranges from 70% to 75%.
    Keywords: Russian industry performance; lending to industry; labor problems; anti-crisis government measures;
    JEL: C53 E37 L21 L52
    Date: 2014
  21. By: Ekaterina Islankina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Today regions are becoming independent actors able to compete globally as globalization of competition is consistent with the localization of competitive advantage. In many ways regional competitiveness is based on the clustering concept. Changes in the global economic environment are making cluster linkages more important, too. Clusters are not capable of long-term excellence and development unless their members are acting in global markets and involved in international knowledge transfer. Thus, internationalization of clusters has turned out to be a new subject of innovation policy and regional development agenda, however lacking strong scientific background in Russia. The paper aims at discovering theoretical and analytical basis for clustering concept and internationalization, the reviewing of best internationalization practices from the clusters worldwide as well as exploring empirical issues of regional clusters` internationalization in Russia and their comparison with the EU outputs. A special emphasis is put on the articulation of practical guide for cluster management organizations responsible for the development of global linkages.
    Keywords: regional development, innovative clusters, internationalization, Russia, the EU
    JEL: F20 O O19 O57 R58
    Date: 2015
  22. By: Mikucka, Malgorzata
    Abstract: The literature on life satisfaction dynamics during parenthood relies largely on data from Western countries. This paper tests the generality of previous conclusions and theoretical models by confronting them with estimates from Russia. We apply fixed effects regression for panel data to the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey data from years 1994-2012. We focus on the dynamics of life satisfaction during parenthood and we investigate the moderating effect of age at first birth, income, and education. The trajectory of life satisfaction during parenthood in Russia differs from the Western one. Life satisfaction of parents does not temporarily increase in the period surrounding the first birth, but it increases during the period surrounding the second birth. Moreover, the long-term effect of parenthood on life satisfaction is positive. These results provide little support to the set-point theory of happiness, but are consistent with selection to parenthood. Planning of parenthood may be an important issue for future studies.
    Keywords: fertility; subjective well-being; set-point theory; demands and rewards of parenthood; selection; fixed-effects;
    JEL: Z19
    Date: 2015–07–01
  23. By: Dmitry Lyusin (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The Attention Network Test (ANT) is a measure that allows the assessment of three different attention networks postulated by Posner – alerting, orienting, and executive control. The alerting network is responsible for the maintenance of a vigilant and alert state; the orienting network allows the shift of attention to sensory events appearing in the perceptual field and is responsible for the selection of information from sensory input; the executive control network allows for resolving conflicts among responses. The ANT became a popular tool for assessing attention networks functioning thanks to its simplicity, relative briefness, and accessibility for researchers. This paper reports data obtained with the ANT in a Russian sample. The analysis was focused on the problem of the independence of the attention networks. No significant correlations between the attention networks were found. A repeated-measures analysis of variance yielded a significant interaction between the cue types and the flanker types. The character of this interaction indicates that the orienting and executive control networks are not independent
    Keywords: Attention Network Test, alerting, orienting, executive control
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2015
  24. By: Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Zusammenfassung Aufwind im Westen der MOSOEL In den mittel-, ost- und südosteuropäischen Ländern (MOSOEL) klafft der Ausblick für das Wirtschaftswachstum auch weiterhin auseinander für die meisten der neuen EU-Mitgliedstaaten (NMS) wird eine langsame Beschleunigung des BIP-Wachstums beginnend mit diesem Jahr erwartet. Für 2015 soll das Wachstum durchschnittlich auf 3% ansteigen, um 0,2 Prozentpunkte mehr als im Vorjahr. Die Erholung erfolgt um ein Jahr früher als erwartet. Wesentlicher Faktor ist die bessere Entwicklung in der Eurozone. Auch am Westbalkan wird eine (wenn auch weniger dynamische) Verbesserung der Wachstumsaussichten für die gesamte Prognoseperiode 2015-2017 erwartet. Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung 2015 in Weißrussland, Kasachstan, Russland und der Ukraine wird düster ausfallen und zum Teil noch schlechter sein als bisher erwartet. Für diese Länder sind die mittelfristigen Wirtschaftsaussichten auch mit substantiellen Risiken behaftet. Insgesamt sollte aber das verstärkte Wachstum in den MOSOEL für die österreichische Wirtschaft als Nachfrageimpuls dienen. Insbesondere die NMS sind für Österreich von zunehmender Bedeutung.   English Summary Western CESEE countries in the ascendant The outlook for GDP growth in the Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) region remains divergent we expect a gradual acceleration of GDP growth for most of the EU’s new Member States (NMS) starting this year. For 2015 growth is expected to increase to 3% on average, by 0.2 pp more as compared to last year. The recovery comes a year earlier than expected mainly based on favourable developments in the euro area. In the Western Balkans growth prospects will also improve over the whole forecast period 2015-2017, though slightly less dynamically. Growth performance in Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine in 2015, however, will be dismal and partly worse than expected; the medium-term outlook for these countries is also fairly uncertain with considerable downside risks. Overall though, we should expect stronger CESEE growth to act as a demand stimulus for the Austrian economy. The NMS in particular are of increasing importance for Austria.
    Keywords: macroeconomic analysis, international trade, competitiveness, consumption, investment, savings, global financial crisis
    JEL: E20 F34 G01 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52
    Date: 2015–07
  25. By: 上垣, 彰; 岩﨑, 一郎
    Abstract: 本稿の目的は,中央銀行独立性のインフレーション抑制効果を実証的に検証した移行経済 研究とその他先進・開発途上経済研究のメタ分析による比較を通じて,中東欧・旧ソ連諸 国における中央銀行改革の成果を問うことにある。先行研究から抽出した合計282の推 定結果を用いたメタ統合の結果から,筆者らは,移行経済研究及び比較対象研究のいずれ も,研究分野全体として,中央銀行独立性のインフレーション抑制効果の検出に成功して いることを確認した。更に,研究間の様々な異質性を考慮したメタ回帰分析の推定結果か ら,推定量,物価変数タイプ,自由度,並びに研究水準は,移行経済に関する実証結果を 大きく左右する要因であることも判明した。また,移行経済研究と比較対象研究の抽出推 定結果をプールしたメタ回帰分析は,自由度と研究水準を制御した上では,効果サイズと 統計的有意性の双方について,両研究間に統計的に有意な差は存在しないことを示した。 この意味で,中東欧・旧ソ連諸国の中央銀行改革は,その他の国々に比肩する程の実質を 伴うものであったとの示唆が得られた。
    Keywords: central bank independence, inflation, transition economies, Central and Eastern Europe, former Soviet Union, meta-analysis, publication selection bias
    JEL: E31 E58 G18 P24 P34
    Date: 2015–06

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