nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2015‒06‒20
thirteen papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Формирование системы дропшиппинга в России By Gadzhieva, Sevil
  2. Les clusters territoriaux d’innovation en Russie : origines de conceptualisation et difficultés de réalisation Territorial innovation clusters in Russia: Origins of conceptualization and implementation problems By Guillem ACHERMANN
  3. Simulating Russia’s Challenging Transition By Seth G. Benzell; Eugene Goryunov; Maria Kazakova; Laurence J. Kotlikoff; Guillermo LaGarda; Kristina Nesterova; Andrey Zubarev
  4. Values and model roles of modern Russian youth in the context of post-industrial sociality By Yulia Totskaya
  5. Сохранение денежных средств в период финансового кризиса 2014-2015 года By Egorova, Yana
  7. Recovery in the NMS, Decline in the CIS By Gabor Hunya; Monika Schwarzhappel
  8. Nowcasting and short-term forecasting of Russian GDP with a dynamic factor model By Porshakov , Alexey; Deryugina , Elena; Ponomarenko , Alexey; Sinyakov , Andrey
  9. Towards an ethnographic understanding of the European Marriage Pattern: Global correlates and links with female status By Sarah Carmichael; Jan Luiten van Zanden
  10. Statistical Analysis of Educational System of Georgia By Lia Charekishvili
  11. The Loss of Production Work: Identification of Demand Shifts Based on Local Soviet Trade Shocks By Elias Einiö
  12. Sustainable Agriculture Development Problems in the Context of Providing food security in Georgia By Marine Natsvaladze
  13. The harsh reality of Ukraineâ??s fiscal arithmetic By Marek Dabrowski

  1. By: Gadzhieva, Sevil
    Abstract: The article is about dropshipping system, mainly its development level in Russia. There are essence of dropshipping in this article. We study the positive and negative aspects of this type of trade, and provide methods for its realization.
    Keywords: internet, intermediary, order, goods, dropshipping.
    JEL: M20
    Date: 2014–12–24
  2. By: Guillem ACHERMANN (Lab.RII/Clersé (UMR 8019), Université de Lille 1)
    Abstract: Pour effectuer sa transition économique d’une économie de rente vers une économie de l’innovation, la Russie a initié une politique territoriale d’innovation. L’implantation de clusters devient alors un atout pour favoriser l’émergence d’innovations. La transition économique des années 1990 vers une « nouvelle » économie de marché a permis à la Russie de restructurer son système organisationnel et productif. Cependant, pour que les « clusters territoriaux d’innovation » russes deviennent des moteurs de croissance économique, il est nécessaire de prendre en compte la complexité des trajectoires territoriales. To put forward its economic transition from a rent-based economy to an innovation economy, Russia has initiated its regional innovation policy. The implementation of clusters becomes an asset that will foster innovations. The economic transition of the 1990s to a "new" market economy has enabled Russia to restructure its organizational and productive system. However, to allow the Russian "territorial innovation clusters" to become engines of economic growth, it is necessary to take into consideration the complexity of local trajectories.
    Keywords: transition économique, politique territoriale d'innovation, cluster, Russie
    JEL: O18 O38 C38
    Date: 2014
  3. By: Seth G. Benzell; Eugene Goryunov; Maria Kazakova; Laurence J. Kotlikoff; Guillermo LaGarda; Kristina Nesterova; Andrey Zubarev
    Abstract: This paper develops a large-scale, dynamic life-cycle model to simulate Russia’s demographic and fiscal transition under favorable and unfavorable fossil-fuel price regimes. The model includes Russia, the U.S., China, India, the EU, and Japan (Japan plus Korea). The model predicts dramatic increases in tax rates in the U.S., EU, India, and Russia. Indeed, the increases are so large as to question their political feasibility let alone their actual collection given the potential for tax avoidance and evasion.
    JEL: F0 F20 H0 H2 H3 J20
    Date: 2015–06
  4. By: Yulia Totskaya (Tomsk State University)
    Abstract: On the basis of the scientific literature post-industrial sociality key characteristics associated with the central role of an independent and purposeful person, the article reveals the degree of autonomy in the implementation of its own life strategy and focus on improving their "Knowledge" potential as well as the main tendencies of forming the system of life values of Russian students. Based on the comparative study it highlights the key differences in values and characteristics of young people of the last century and modern young people.The article is the theoretical and legal research of the social activity of youth in post-industrial society based on the example of Russian students. The method of this research is survey methodology. The tool of data collection was quantitative investigation (it was divided by 9 closed and 3 opened questions and 250 persons were chosen as population-based study).
    Keywords: Youth, Students, Values, Information society, Post-industrial sociality
    JEL: J13 J17 D80
  5. By: Egorova, Yana
    Abstract: In this article problems of preservation of funds of households are considered. The author analysed the main options of possible investments of citizens of the Russian Federation in the period of an economic crisis of 2014-2015, such as an investment of money in real estate, preservation of money in rubles, currency or jewelry, reduction of personal expenses. Need of the state participation in preservation of funds of the population is revealed. On the basis of the conducted research by the author it is offered to allocate an optimum way of preservation of funds of households.
    Keywords: financial crisis, money, inflation, preservation of money, crisis of 2014-2015.
    JEL: G0 G01
    Date: 2015–06–15
  6. By: Natalia Victorovna Kuznetsova, Natalia Alexandrovna Vorobeva (School of Economics and Management, Far Eastern Federal University, Russia)
    Abstract: The paper examines the problem of global integration processes in regions of Africa, Asia and Russia. Based on migration flows, estimation of integration indexes, we investigate the historical integration development of these regions and identify the important features for future international cooperation and integration. This article presents the preliminary results of the gravity model that we constructed using the features of Asia-Pacific region. We concluded that differences and similarities in sectoral structure of GDP do not influence increasing of mutual trade between countries and its partners. It evaluates the potential benefits for Asia-Pacific region by expanding the market for export industries worldwide.
    Keywords: global integration process, gravity model, ASEAN, Asia-Pacific Region, economy of North-East Asia, integration process of South Africa
    JEL: R11
    Date: 2015–03
  7. By: Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Monika Schwarzhappel (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Content The first part of the publication contains an analysis of the latest FDI trends. The analysis highlights the modest recovery of FDI in 2014. The second part of the publication contains two sets of tables Tables I total flow and stock data, FDI flow by components and FDI income, FDI per capita and other FDI reference parameter (2006-2014) Tables II detailed FDI data by economic activity and by country (last four years) The main sources of data are the central banks of the individual Central, East and Southeast European countries. General Description (PDF) | Table of contents (PDF)   Abstract The first part of this report provides an analysis of the 2014 foreign direct investment (FDI) trends in 23 Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) countries, highlighting uneven developments. FDI inflows recovered in the new EU Member States (NMS), stagnated in the Southeast European countries and plummeted in Russia and Ukraine. Greenfield investments have declined in all three regions, but capital increases in foreign subsidiaries gathered momentum in the NMS. Even in this region, FDI inflow is still meagre in relation to gross fixed capital formation thus FDI is not a major driver of economic recovery. The countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), as well as Latvia and Lithuania, are receiving much less foreign investment than before, in the wake of the Ukraine crisis. Capital flight has hit Russia. Net FDI in the country has become negative as inflows declined by two thirds while outflows diminished only by one third. Chinese FDI contributes only a minor fraction to the FDI stock in the CESEE, but it is on the rise. More and larger greenfield projects originating in China and Hong Kong have been announced recently, first of all in Russia. Forecasts for economic growth in 2015 suggest a further recovery of FDI in the NMS, although first-quarter trends in FDI flows and greenfield investments do not support this expectation. The second part of this report contains two sets of tables Tables I cover FDI flow and stock data, FDI flows by components and related income; Tables II provide detailed FDI data by economic activity and by country. The main sources of data are the central banks of the individual Central, East and Southeast European countries. Methodological explanations highlight important recent changes in reporting standards.   The wiiw FDI Database is available online This online access with a modern query tool supports easy search and download of data. The wiiw FDI Database contains the full set of FDI data with time series starting form 1990 as far as available. Access to wiiw FDI Database
    Keywords: foreign direct investment, balance of payments, income repatriation, statistics, new EU Member States, Southeast Europe, CIS
    JEL: C82 F21 O57 P23
    Date: 2015–06
  8. By: Porshakov , Alexey (BOFIT); Deryugina , Elena (BOFIT); Ponomarenko , Alexey (BOFIT); Sinyakov , Andrey (BOFIT)
    Abstract: Real-time assessment of quarterly GDP growth rates is crucial for evaluation of economy’s current perspectives given the fact that respective data is normally subject to substantial publication delays by national statistical agencies. Large information sets of real-time indicators which could be used to approximate GDP growth rates in the quarter of interest are in practice characterized by unbalanced data, mixed frequencies, systematic data revisions, as well as a more general curse of dimensionality problem. The latter issues could, however, be practically resolved by means of dynamic factor modeling that has recently been recognized as a helpful tool to evaluate current economic conditions by means of higher frequency indicators. Our major results show that the performance of dynamic factor models in predicting Russian GDP dynamics appears to be superior as compared to other common alternative specifications. At the same time, we empirically show that the arrival of new data seems to consistently improve DFM’s predictive accuracy throughout sequential nowcast vintages. We also introduce the analysis of nowcast evolution resulting from the gradual expansion of the dataset of explanatory variables, as well as the framework for estimating contributions of different blocks of predictors into now-casts of Russian GDP.
    Keywords: GDP nowcast; dynamic factor models; principal components; Kalman filter; nowcast evolution
    JEL: C53 C82 E17
    Date: 2015–05–28
  9. By: Sarah Carmichael; Jan Luiten van Zanden
    Abstract: This contribution compares the EMP, and the associated Western European family system (inheritance practices, intergenerational co-residence and exogamy), with what is known about family systems and marriage patterns in the rest of the world, with a special focus on the consequences of these family systems for human capital formation (in view of recent interpretations that interpret the EMP as a step in the 'quantity-quality' switch in demographic behaviour). This is done in the following ways: first the EMP is defined as a family system characterized by monogamy, exogamy, consensus (no arranged marriages), neo-locality, and a relatively strong position of women in marriage. Next we compare these criteria with ethnographic data from other Eurasian societies (mainly based on George Murdock's ethnographic world atlas), and with global classifications of family systems presented by academics (anthropologists, political scientists and demographic and family historians) such as Emmanuel Todd. We present maps of the institutions determining marriage behavior, and show which features of the EMP can be found elsewhere. In the margin of the Eurasian landmass, marriage systems can be found with certain similarities to the EMP. In the ‘core’ of the continent, in China, Northern India, the Middle East, and Russia, institutions are diametrically opposed to those of the EMP. Finally, we briefly sketch the ‘similar’ marriage systems in Japan, Sumatra, Kerala, Sri Lanka and Myanmar, and try to find out if these relatively female-friendly systems produced high levels of human capital (as the EMP is supposed to have done).
    Keywords: Marriage patterns, Ethnography, Female empowerment, Eurasia, Family, Inheritance, Kinship, Development
    Date: 2015–06
  10. By: Lia Charekishvili (Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, Invited Associated Professor)
    Abstract: Creation and formation of the high quality educational system, eradication of which should contribute strengthening the Political and Economic power of Georgia, growth of the prosperity of population, and creation of reliable conditions of intrepidity of the country. In spite of the problems the reforms of the systems in the country are still going. The significance of transition to the standard international educational classification is emphasized.The specifics of the Knowledge Economics in Georgia, which is considered as unifier and appraiser of scientific, educational, and technical progress, is impossible to be evaluated with just one value. One of the specifics is that there are no enough investments in the country to make educational inventions successful.It is designated that educational and economic staff in Georgia is evaluated only by qualitative indices. Realization of educational qualification system inside the population reserves of our country and stirring up the process of exchanging the knowledge between the generations is left without attention. The science is almost removed from the direct responsibility of taking care and controlling the educational system. Here are some statistics on education: 90.8% of Georgian pupils at the beginning of the school year 2013-2014 were involved in Public schools while the remaining 9.2% attended private schools. In comparison, in 2000-2001, 98.3% were enrolled in Public schools and only 1.7% were private school pupils.In Georgia there is no gender differentiation while entering a school. Out of 553,016 pupils enrolled in secondary school at the beginning 2013-2014 school year, 47.4% were female and 52.6% were male. In 2013-2014, there were 19 Public Higher Educational Institutions with 83.3 thousand students. Approximately 27% or 34.5 thousand students were enrolled in private institutions. From 2000-2001 to 2012-2013, the quantity of public institutions decreased by 27%, while the number of students decreased by 21.3%. Government expenditure of Georgia on education as percentage of GDP was about 2% in 2012 and expenditure on education as percentage of total government expenditure - about 7%. While in Argentina total government expenditure was 15% in the same year, in Armenia 14%, in Belarus and Barbados 13%, in Chile –19%.Lastly, I would like to mention that the household’s expenditures share on education in 2013 equaled 2.7% of the total amount. It is very important because private education institutions are paid. This cost is heavier for pupils/students coming from low-income families, where current earnings are crucial to their immediate well-being.
    Keywords: Law on Education of Georgia, view of education system of Georgia, education statistics of Georgia, analyses of education of Georgia
    JEL: I21 C10 C19
  11. By: Elias Einiö
    Abstract: This paper examines changes in the structure of labor demand in panel data on Finnish manufacturing plants. I exploit general equilibrium effects on unit labor costs in local labor markets induced by the 1990 collapse of Fenno-Soviet trade to identify labor demand schedules for plants producing for the non-Soviet markets, which were not directly affected by the fall of Soviet-import demand. The estimated model implies that the relative demand for noninterpersonal, manual task-intensive production labor activities is stagnant in the 1990s, but starts to decline rapidly in the early 2000s, coinciding with a surge of imported intermediate inputs. In this period, the industry patterns of the shift also begin to diverge. Offshoring and ICT explain both one-third of the overall shift.
    Keywords: Labor demand, Occupations, Tasks, Technical change, ICT, Trade, Offshoring, Manufacturing, Panel data
    JEL: J24 F16 O33 J23
    Date: 2015–03–25
  12. By: Marine Natsvaladze (Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University)
    Abstract: Due to the peculiarities of the natural resources of Georgia the main priority of the agriculture is the development of bio production. Production of bio products is alternative, modern system of agricultural products production, which has steadily increasing economic potential. Current research shows that the rapid increase in production of bio products could be a good alternative for agricultural development of Georgia, but the growth rate of bio production is quite low than expected. The present paper examines the situation of bio production in agricultural sector of Georgia. The main aim of the research was to evaluate the role of bio-production in sustainable development of agriculture of Georgia and to work out some recommendations for further development. According to our goal, these problems were:1.Evaluation of consumers interest and approach to bio-products;2.Evaluation of Georgian producer’s interest in bio-market;3.To identify the reasons of underdevelopment of bio-products market in Georgia.4.Improve implementation of sustainable agriculture policy.Our research showed that despite consumers readiness to purchase bio-products, the segment of the Georgian market is developing more slowly than in other countries. The research show that for producers the most influential are the economic factors and the least influential are the social factors.The agricultural politics of Government played a significant role in development of the market. The most important directions include: Promotion of Georgian bio-products, supporting the bio sector of agriculture and developing the local and export bio markets.The systematic approach to the problems will help to develop the bio-farms:Qualification: The farmers need to have enough knowledge about the bio-farming, bio-products and the perspectives of the bio-production, also how to transfer from the traditional to the bio farming.Support: The farmers could transfer from traditional to the bio farming easily with financial and informational support.Certification: Bio producer should have the guarantees that after all required procedures they would not have any problems with certification.Sales: The farmer needs a serious support in organizing the problems of export and entering the international markets, they could not do it alone.Bio-production - quality oriented, sustainable, and rapidly growing and perspective production could become the main priority for Georgian agriculture. In this regard, bio-products may be considered as a direction of developing sustainable agriculture.
    Keywords: bio production, sustainable development, agriculture, agriculture policy, bio products market
    JEL: O13
  13. By: Marek Dabrowski
    Abstract: â?¢ Ukraine is struggling with both external aggression and the dramatically poor shape of its economy. The pace of political and institutional change has so far been too slow to prevent the deepening of the fiscal and balance-of-payments crises, while business confidence continues to be undermined. â?¢ Unfortunately, the 2015 International Monetary Fund Extended Fund Facility programme repeats many weaknesses of the 2014 IMF Stand-by Arrangement: slow pace of fiscal adjustment especially in the two key areas of energy prices and pension entitlements, lack of a comprehensive structural and institutional reform vision, and insufficient external financing to close the expected balance-of-payments gap and allow Ukraine to return to debt sustainability in the long term. â?¢ The reform process in Ukraine must be accelerated and better managed. A frontloaded fiscal adjustment is necessary to stabilise public finances and the balance-of-payments, and to bring inflation down. The international community, especially the European Union, should offer sufficient financial aid backed by strong conditionality, technical assistance and support to Ukraineâ??s independence and territorial integrity.
    Date: 2015–06

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