nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2015‒05‒02
thirteen papers chosen by

  1. Foreign Economic Relations and Regional Growth in North East Asia: Russia's WTO Accession and Its Effects By Kumo, Kazuhiro; Korgun, Irina
  2. Анализ проблем формирования политики в сфере заработной платы в Российской Федерации By Bolsheva, Anna; Anna Bolsheva
  3. Ukrainian Crisis, Economic Crisis in Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union By Libman, Alexander
  4. The First Literary Jubilee in Russia: Krylov and Others By Ekaterina Lyamina
  5. Does Migration Lead to Regional Convergence in Russia? By Elena Vakulenko
  6. Managed aquifer recharge: the solution for water shortages in the Fergana Valley. In Russian. By Karimov, Akmal.; Smakhtin, Vladimir.; Mavlonov, A.; Borisov, V.; Gracheva, I.; Miryusupov, F.; Djumanov, J.; Khamzina, T.; Ibragimov, R.; Abdurahmanov, B.
  7. O Fortalecimento do Sistema Financeiro Doméstico e o Fluxo de Capital Para Economias Emergentes By Ajax Moreira; Katia Rocha; Marcos da Silveira
  8. The Parents’ Values of Early Childhood Education and Care in Russia: Toward the Construction of Evaluation Tools By Olga Savinskaya
  9. The Term Structure of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets: a Calibration Approach for Structural Models By Katia Rocha; Francisco A. Alcaraz Garcia
  10. Strategic investment and international spillovers in natural gas markets By Robert A. Ritz
  11. Theoretical foundations of fiscal gap as a long-term fiscal sustainability indicator and its estimates for Russia By Evgeny Goryunov; Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev; Laurence J. Kotlikoff
  12. Institutional Constraints on Modern Economic Growth By Konstantin Yanovskiy; Sergey Zhavoronkov; Ilia Zatcovetsky; Vladimir Lisin; Dmitry Cherny; Sergey Shulgin
  13. Home Country Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the ADR Market: The Case of the BRICs By Tian Yuan; Rakesh Gupta; Eduardo Roca

  1. By: Kumo, Kazuhiro; Korgun, Irina
    Date: 2015–04
  2. By: Bolsheva, Anna; Anna Bolsheva
    Keywords: wage differential, wage determination, minimum wage, trend, Russian Federation
    Date: 2015
  3. By: Libman, Alexander
    Abstract: This note reviews the implications of the political crisis around Ukraine and of the economic crisis in Russia on the development of Eurasian regionalism and, in particular, the future of the Eurasian Economic Union. It identifies the key effects of the crises, as well as discusses alternative ways of future development of the Eurasian Economic Union and assesses their likelihood.
    Keywords: Eurasian regionalism; economic crisis in Russia; crisis around Ukraine
    JEL: F15
    Date: 2015
  4. By: Ekaterina Lyamina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The study is focused on an important stage in the process of shaping and functioning of Ivan Andreevich Krylov’s public image. A unique behavioral strategy created by the fabulist in the 1800s synthesized literary pattern with the everyday life. It not only provided Krylov with the most favorable life conditions during three decades (from 1812 till 1844, the year of his death). In virtue of a number of circumstances concerning the formation of the official ideology of the reign of Nicolas I, the named strategy, set upon Krylov’s fables, his opus magnum, resulted in a singular phenomenon of Krylov’s appropriation by the State (ogosudarstvlenie). The paper seeks to show how the idea of celebrating the 50th anniversary of Krylov’s literary activity on February 2nd, 1838, was born and performed in the described context. The light is also shed on the connection between the construct of Grandfather Krylov (“dedushka Krylov”) and further life of the fabulist and his works.
    Keywords: Ivan Krylov; Russian literature; social status of the writer; literary reputation; appropriation by the State; commemoration
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2015
  5. By: Elena Vakulenko (-)
    Abstract: We analyze the impact of migration on wage, income and the unemployment rate. Using the official Russian statistical database from 1995 to 2010, we calculate a dynamic panel data model with spatial effects. There is a positive spatial effect for wage, income and unemployment rate. There is no significant impact of migration on the unemployment rate. We find a negative relationship between net internal migration and both wages and income, which is explained by the positive effect of emigration and negative effect of immigration for income. However, the migration benefits are not big enough to make a difference on the Gini index across regions. We conclude that migration does not affect the regional -convergence of economic indicators.
    Keywords: convergence, migration, wage, income, unemployment rate, spatial dynamic panel data models
    JEL: R23 C23
    Date: 2015–03–06
  6. By: Karimov, Akmal.; Smakhtin, Vladimir.; Mavlonov, A.; Borisov, V.; Gracheva, I.; Miryusupov, F.; Djumanov, J.; Khamzina, T.; Ibragimov, R.; Abdurahmanov, B.
    Keywords: Water management; Aquifers; Recharge; Water shortage; Valleys; River basins; Flow discharge; Upstream; Downstream; Groundwater irrigation; Canals; Groundwater development; Groundwater extraction; Water storage; Wells; Reservoirs; Artificial recharge; Infiltration; Irrigated land; Soil profile; Models; Central Asia; Fergana Valley
    Date: 2014
  7. By: Ajax Moreira; Katia Rocha; Marcos da Silveira
    Abstract: Este estudo tem como objetivo analisar o papel do sistema financeiro doméstico como mitigador de eventos de paradas súbitas e condicionante de fluxos de capital de um grupo de quatorze economias emergentes no período 1999-2013, em especial em face de cenários externos desfavoráveis, como aumento dos juros internacionais e aversão ao risco global. Os países analisados – Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colômbia, Indonésia, Malásia, México, Peru, Filipinas, Rússia, África do Sul, Tailândia, Turquia e Ucrânia – representavam, em agosto de 2014, aproximadamente 80% do índice de títulos da dívida de mercados emergentes (Embi Plus) e 60% do índice Embi Global. Procurou-se distinguir o efeito sobre diversos tipos de fluxos de capital: fluxo de entrada de investimento estrangeiro direto (FDI), fluxo de entrada de investimento em carteira (ações, títulos, derivativos e outros investimentos) e fluxo líquido (entrada e saída de todos os tipos de capital). O resultado suporta evidências de que o desenvolvimento do sistema financeiro doméstico propicia o aumento dos fluxos de entrada de capital e diminui a probabilidade de ocorrência de parada súbita destes fluxos. Este fato motiva políticas públicas que incentivem o desenvolvimento e fortalecimento do sistema financeiro doméstico nos países emergentes. The objective of this is study is to assert the role of domestic financial system as mitigating of sudden stops episodes and driver of capital flows in a group of 14 emerging economies in the period of 1999-2013, especially in face of unfavorable external environment such as high international interest rate or global risk aversion. The countries analyzed – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey and Ukraine, represented in August 2014 roughly 80% of the Embi Plus and 60% of Embi Global. We work with distinct types of capital flows: Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Inflow of Portfólio (stocks, bonds, derivatives and other investments) and Net Capital (inflow and outflow of all types of capital). The result support evidence that the development of domestic financial system allows an increase of capital flow and a decrease of sudden stops probability. This fact support public policies that improve development and strength of domestic financial system in emerging economies.
    Date: 2015–04
  8. By: Olga Savinskaya (National Research University Higher School of Economics.)
    Abstract: This article describes the development of tools for parental evaluation of the quality of services in municipal kindergartens. The parents’ point of view is required as part of a complex evaluation of the quality of educational services in order to make an evidence-based educational policy. We emphasize the importance of a preschool educational institution and its complex role in the implementation of the principles of the welfare state: it has not only an educational, but also a social function, providing governmental support to families with children. This statement is discussed in the literature review which emphasizes the importance of full day educational services. These services allow parents of preschool children to exercise their right to work, as well as perform the socializing role of a kindergarten. Qualitative methodology was used in the research. The empirical base of the study is 30 in-depth interviews with mothers as more involved part of parents. The results show that parents understand the service provided by a kindergarten as a complex, aimed primarily at daytime children’s education and development in a specifically organized educational space, performed by professional educators. The greatest parental value is children’s opportunity to "learn how to communicate", to resolve conflicts and to find compromises, and to relate their behavior with group-mates and peers. The second most important value of education in a kindergarten is the development of life skills, surviving with routines, as well as the associated skill initiative. At the same time, the main professional competence of the educator is seen in their ability to create a positive emotional climate, an atmosphere of openness for the realization of a child’s individuality and to create a space for comfortable communication with parents
    Keywords: early childhood education, education policy, evaluation, preschool, preschoolers, practices and senses, Russia
    JEL: E32
    Date: 2015
  9. By: Katia Rocha; Francisco A. Alcaraz Garcia
    Abstract: This paper proposes a simple structural model to estimate the term structure of sovereign spreads and the implied default probability of a selected group of emerging countries, which accounts for more than 50% of the J. P. Morgan EMBIG index. The real exchange rate dynamics, modeled as a pure diffusion process, are assumed to trigger default event. By relaxing the hypothesis of market completeness, the calibrated model generates sovereign spread curves consistent with market data, giving average deviations below 30 (Mexico, Russia and Turkey) or 60 (Brazil) basis points over time. We show the robustness of the model and argue that the criticism of structural models for underestimating the magnitude of market spreads should be reconsidered. The results suggest that the market tends to overprice the spreads for Brazil, whereas for Mexico, Russia and Turkey the model reproduces the market behavior. Este trabalho apresenta um modelo estrutural para estimar a estrutura a termo do spread soberano e a probabilidade implícita de default em um grupo de países emergentes que compõe mais do que 50% do índice EMBIG do JP Morgan. A dinâmica da taxa real de câmbio evolui de acordo com um processo de difusão simples, e representa a variável indicativa do evento de default. Relaxando-se a hipótese de mercado completo, o modelo calibrado reproduz a estrutura a termo dos spreads de forma consistente com a observada no mercado, gerando desvios absolutos menores que 30 (México, Rússia e Turquia) ou 60 (Brasil) pontos-base. O modelo proposto é robusto e, portanto, a crítica a respeito dos modelos estruturais subestimando a magnitude dos spreads deve ser reconsiderada. Nossos resultados revelam que o mercado está sobreestimando os spreads para o Brasil, enquanto para México, Turquia e Rússia o modelo reproduz o comportamento do mercado.
    Date: 2015–01
  10. By: Robert A. Ritz
    Abstract: This paper presents a game-theoretic analysis of multimarket competition with capacity investments, applied to international gas markets. It identifies a strategic advantage of «focused» pipeline gas producers (e.g., Gazprom) over «diversified» multimarket exporters of liquefied natural gas (e.g., Qatar). Based on this, the paper examines the spillover impacts of the Fukushima nuclear accident onto European gas markets, both in the short- and longer-term. It also discusses Russia’s gas export strategy, especially the 2014 deals with China. More generally, the analysis shows how a less efficient oligopolist can be more profitable, and speaks to policy discussions about «security of supply» in energy markets.
    Keywords: Competitive advantage, corporate diversification, liquefied natural gas (LNG), supply security, strategic investment
    JEL: D43 F12 L25 L95
    Date: 2015–04–21
  11. By: Evgeny Goryunov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev (Russian Foreign Trade Academy); Laurence J. Kotlikoff (Boston University)
    Abstract: Fiscal gap is an indicator of long run sustainability of government finance. It is used for assessment of the extent to which current fiscal policy is able to keep government budget solvent in the longer period. Fiscal gap is derived from intertemporal budget constraint which connects flows of budget outlays and receipts aggregated along decades. Fiscal gap is defined as a sum of current government debt and present value of future primary deficit flow. In order to get an estimate of Russia’s general government fiscal gap we consider three scenarios which are based on different assumptions regarding demographic trends, productivity growth, extractable reserves of oil and natural gas, long term price of oil and natural gas etc. Estimated value of fiscal gap is positive in all three scenarios which implies that current fiscal policy cannot provide budget sustainability in the long run. There are two major factors of the budget imbalances: rising health and pension expenditures due to demographics trends and shrinking role of tax revenues from energy sector due to extraction stagnation. Fiscal gap value under intermediate scenario is equal to 1613 trln 2014 rubles or 13,6% of present value of GDP which is close to fiscal gap in several advanced economies. This study is an extension of (Goryunov et al., 2013) one made by a group of authors headed by Laurence J. Kotlikoff.
    Keywords: fiscal gap, fiscal sustainability, fiscal policy, budget constraints, budget sustainability
    JEL: E62 H51 H52 H55 H62 H63 H68 J11
    Date: 2015
  12. By: Konstantin Yanovskiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sergey Zhavoronkov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Ilia Zatcovetsky (Samuel Neaman Institute for Advanced Studies in Science and Technology); Vladimir Lisin (Chairman of the board of directors of Novolipetsk Steel Company); Dmitry Cherny (Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation Department for Innovative Development); Sergey Shulgin (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: How to import modern Western Institutions to suppress economic growth in underdeveloped countries? Russian experience and some warnings for newcoming reformers The monograph «Institutional Constraints on Modern Economic Growth" deals with the most dangerous obstacles standing in the way of long term economic growth. Some of these obstacles have been studied extensively, while others are well known but have been largely forgotten over time; finally, there are some that for various reasons are normally ignored. "I believe that the United States today is not an appropriate model for Mexico or other low-income countries…. There have been no summits about how you privatize governmental activities. You have seen summits about how to raise taxes, about spending more of the taxpayers' money, about how to impose more controls on the people. That is the sense in which I say, take as your model the U.S. in its first 150 years. We can afford our nonsense now because we had so long a period during which to build a base. You can't." wrote Milton Friedman[1] in 1994. The book contains specification of the principal cases of "nonsense". The authors are searching for historic records of "damaged" institutions their roots and causes of the damages, tracking them to universal suffrage rising and to the earlier, pre-capitalist institutions, so that to develop the policy advice for new democracies how to escape all these traps.
    Keywords: private property safeguards, import of institutions; Economic Growth; Government failures; political institutions
    JEL: D72 D73 H41 N40 P16 P51
    Date: 2015
  13. By: Tian Yuan; Rakesh Gupta; Eduardo Roca
    Keywords: American Depositary Receipt (ADR), BRICs, Macroeconomic Information Transmission Mechanism, VECM, Granger Causality Test
    JEL: F36 G15
    Date: 2015–02

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