nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2015‒04‒11
twenty-one papers chosen by

  1. Estimating informal economy share in Russian regions By Vorobyev Pavel
  2. Towards a New Model of the Us-Russian Relations: The Economic and Political Factors By Dmitry V. Suslov
  3. Space Policy Strategies and Priorities in Russia By Anastasia Edelkina; Oleg Karasev; Natalia Velikanova
  4. Breaking Vicious Circle of the Us-Russia Relations By Dmitry V. Suslov
  5. Comparative analysis of the stock markets of China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa and Argentina By Padmanabhan, Divya; Sinha, Ayan; Venkataraman, Arundhati; Ravi, Archi; Joshi, Apurva
  6. Measurement of Cross-Cultural Differences in Mathematics Teachers’ Beliefs in Russia, Latvia and Estonia By Alena A. Ponomareva; Elena Kardanova; M. S. Hannula; Anita Pipere; M. Lepik
  7. Conservative Philosophy and the Doctrine of Sovereignty: A Necessary Connection? By Mikhail V. Antonov
  8. Выступление академика В.В.Ивантера на Пленуме Вольного экономического общества «Политика экономического роста как главная антикризисная мера», 10 декабря 2014 г. By Ивантер В.В.
  9. Интервью академика В.В.Ивантера Экспресс-газете «Все наши беды от низкой зарплаты», 10 марта 2015 г. By Ивантер В.В.
  10. Discovering the Miracle of Large Numbers of Antitrust Investigations in Russia: The Role of Competition Authority Incentives By Svetlana Avdasheva; Dina Tsytsulina; Svetlana Golovanova; Yelena Sidorova
  11. A 5-sector DSGE model of Russia By Sergey Ivashchenko
  12. Benefits assessment of Russian National Park ”Lake Pleshcheevo” (ecosystem services valuation for an environmental policy) By Sitkina Kira; Solovyeva Sofya
  13. Water Resources – an Analysis of Trends, Weak Siglans and Wild Cards with Implications for Russia By Ozcan Saritas; Liliana N. Proskuryakova; E. Kyzyngasheva
  14. The New BRICS Institutions as Contestable Multilateralism By Pablo García
  15. A quarter century of economic reforms in Ukraine: too late, too slow, too little / Æwieræ wieku ukraiñskich reform: za ma³o, za póŸno i zbyt wolno By Oleh Havrylyshyn
  16. Multidimensional poverty measurement with individual preferences By Decancq, Koen; Fleurbeay, Marc; Maniquet, François
  17. A Sector Assessment : Accelerating Growth of High-Speed Internet Services in Azerbaijan By World Bank
  18. Comparative Study of the Mining Tax Regime for Mineral Exploitation in Kazakhstan By Olle Ostensson; Bob Parsons; Samantha Dodd
  19. Determinants of export performance of Ukrainian firms By Andrzej Cieslik; Jan Michalek; Iryna Nasadiuk
  20. От социального либерализма - к философии сотрудничества By Polterovich, Victor
  21. Forecasting Moscow Ambulance Trips By Filipp Bykov; Vladimir A. Gordin

  1. By: Vorobyev Pavel
    Abstract: TInformal economy in Russian regions is measured using two approaches: 1) cross-section regression model for electricity consumption in Russian regions; 2) augmented electricity dynamics approach. 1) Regression model is applied for electricity consumption in production of goods and services (total electricity consumption less losses, less households’ consumption). Model was estimated on the basis of regional data in 2011. It allowed estimating informal economy share in 67 Russian regions in 2011. The average informal economy share is estimated at 40% with standard deviation 18 percentage points. These results show high positive correlation with usual proxies for informal economy such as corruption, unemployment, and especially dependency of regional budget from Federal transfers. 2) Augmented electricity dynamics approach is developed to estimate dynamics of informal economy share in regions over 2004-2011. Comparing to traditional method in the literature, it takes into account changes in regional industrial structure and electricity intensity of GRP. It leads to more accurate estimates. It has been shown that the share of informal economy in Russia diminished from 55% in 2004 to 40% in 2011 due to the growth of formal sector. Only 16 from 65 regions witnessed an increase in informal economy share over the period.
    JEL: R11
    Date: 2015–03–27
  2. By: Dmitry V. Suslov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper argues that while the current model of US-Russian relations, which the author defines as “selective cooperation against the background of strategic deterrence”, fully reflects their historic narrative and corresponds to the current preferences of the political establishments on both sides, it does not correspond to the major trends of global economy and international relations development. Kondratiev waves theory was selected to describe those trends and their impact on relations among states. According to the author, a sharp discrepancy between the current model of the US-Russia relations and what is demanded by the current Kondratiev wave trajectory results in gradual weakening of the sides and especially Russia in the International system, whose policies are in greatest breach with the Kondratiev wave conjuncture. Case study of US-Soviet relations was provided to depict the negative consequences of this discrepancy. The paper ends with arguing for a new model of the US-Russia relations and description of the one, which would be consistent with the Kondratiev waves cycles
    Keywords: Russia, United States, US-Russia relations, Kondratiev waves, new model
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2014
  3. By: Anastasia Edelkina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Oleg Karasev (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Natalia Velikanova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This article explores new innovation policy measures aimed at ongoing transformation of the space industry in Russia. The current implementation of a wide range of state programs and presidential decrees helps to maintain the leading position of Russia in the space industry and expanding international cooperation. The main objective of the paper is to present the principal directions of space policy development in Russia, including its priorities and the tasks to be solved in the short and mid-terms. In this paper we explore the main details of the space policy in Russia, the priorities of its development mentioned in the legal documents focusing on the innovative development of the space industry and possibilities for the public-private partnership and institutional reforms in this area
    Keywords: space policy, innovation, government program, technology platform, innovative cluster, institutional reforms, public-private partnership
    JEL: O38 L50 D78
    Date: 2015
  4. By: Dmitry V. Suslov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Despite relative normalization of the US-Russia dialogue in early 2013 and their impressive cooperation on Syria and Iran later that year, the relations on the whole remain extremely fragile, volatile and at the same time stagnant. Their traditional agenda, based on arms control, is crumbling; leadership is both countries is not regarding positive US-Russian partnership as central for their vital national interests fulfillment; and the share of contradictions is growing. At best, this deprives the sides of many opportunities to advance their interests through cooperation. At worst, this could spark a new serious crisis by. The author argues that the fundamental problem of the US-Russia relations is their old-fashioned philosophy, centered on strategic deterrence and balancing. This philosophy, the paper claims, in its turn predetermines an agenda of the relations, which poorly reflects the real challenges that US and Russia face in the world of today and tomorrow. The author claims that the new philosophy of the US-Russia relations should be based not on strategic deterrence and strategic balance in a Cold war understanding, but on clear recognition that the sides need each other and need to cooperate in order to deal with real challenges and achieve real opportunities
    Keywords: Russia, United States, US-Russia relations, security, deterrence, reset, new agenda
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2014
  5. By: Padmanabhan, Divya; Sinha, Ayan; Venkataraman, Arundhati; Ravi, Archi; Joshi, Apurva
    Abstract: In this study that we are conducting, the end goal is to undertake a comparative analysis of the stock markets of Russia, China, South Africa, Argentina and Brazil.
    Keywords: Stock Market, Brazil, China, Argentina, Russia, South Africa
    JEL: G1 G2 G3 N2
    Date: 2015–03–29
  6. By: Alena A. Ponomareva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Elena Kardanova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); M. S. Hannula (University of Helsinki); Anita Pipere (Daugavpils University); M. Lepik (Tallinn University)
    Abstract: Globalization has led to a large number of cross-cultural studies in different areas, especially in education and psychology. Researchers have to use multiple-language versions of tests and questionnaires and to involve individuals from different languages and cultures. The question of measurement of cross-cultural differences comes to the fore. This paper aims to measure lower secondary school mathematics teachers’ beliefs in Estonia, Latvia and Russia. It will consider thier perspectives on teaching in general and teaching of mathematics and to analyse the structure of these beliefs. About 25% of school students in Latvia and 19% in Estonia attend Russian-language schools. The paper presents results from a cross-cultural comparison of beliefs teachers from Russian-language schools in Latvia and Estonia and Russian teachers. For this purpose, data acquired within the framework of the project “Nordic-Baltic comparative research in mathematics education” (NorBa) were analyzed. Additionally, semi-structural interviews were conducted to verify the answers of Russian teachers. The results indicate that differences between the teachers of mathematics in Russia, Latvia and Estonia were statistically significant on all the scales analyzed. Moreover, the teachers from the Russian-language schools in Estonia and Latvia were in most dimensions somewhere between the Russian teachers and the teachers from Estonian and Latvian-language schools
    Keywords: beliefs, cross-cultural measurement, mathematics teachers
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2015
  7. By: Mikhail V. Antonov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This article explains the philosophical sources of contemporary Russian conservative philosophy, which is blended with exceptionalism, the Westphalian conception of sovereignty, the negation of the universality of human rights, and which is based on the positivist precepts of the prevailing legal thinking in Russia. This conservative ideology is not new, as similar conceptions have been developed in Russian intellectual history in the past.
    Keywords: neo-conservatism, sovereignty, human rights, Russia and the European Union, constitution, legitimacy, binding force of law, Russian legal philosophy
    JEL: K10
    Date: 2015
  8. By: Ивантер В.В. (Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования)
    Date: 2015–03–04
  9. By: Ивантер В.В. (Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования)
    Date: 2015–03–17
  10. By: Svetlana Avdasheva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Dina Tsytsulina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Svetlana Golovanova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Yelena Sidorova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Many antitrust investigations in Russia continue to present a challenge for the assessment of competition policy and international enforcement ratings. On the one hand, many infringement decisions may be interpreted as an indicator of high enforcement efforts in the context of rigid competition restrictions and the significant related harm to social welfare. On the other hand, many investigations proceed under poor legal and economic standards; therefore, the impact of decisions and remedies on competition is questionable. In fact, large number of investigations may indicate the ineffectiveness of antitrust enforcement. The article explains the possible effects of antitrust enforcement in Russia. Using a unique dataset of the appeals of infringement decisions from 2008-2012, we classify the investigated cases according to their potential impact on competition. A case-level analysis reveals that the majority of cases would never be investigated under an appropriate understanding of the goals of antitrust enforcement, restrictions on competition and basic cost-benefit assessments of agency activity. There are diverse explanations for the distorted structure of enforcement, including the incompleteness and imperfection of sector-specific regulations, rules concerning citizen complaints against the executive authorities and the incentives of competition authorities. Our analysis shows that competition agencies tend to pay more attention to the investigation of cases, which requires less input and, at the same time, results in infringement decisions with a lower probability of being annulled
    Keywords: antitrust enforcement, authorities’ incentives, harm, Russia
    JEL: K21 K42
    Date: 2015
  11. By: Sergey Ivashchenko
    Abstract: We build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with five sectors (1 - mining; 2 - manufacturing; 3 - electricity, gas and water; 4 - trade, transport and communication; 5 - other). The model is estimated on 29 time-series of Russia statistical data. We analyse the out-of-sample forecasting prowess of the model and derive implications for economic policy.
    Keywords: DSGE, industries, out of sample forecasts
    JEL: E23 E27 E32 E37 E60
    Date: 2015–03–06
  12. By: Sitkina Kira (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Solovyeva Sofya (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)
    Abstract: The article presents assessment of ecosystem services for National Park ”Lake Pleshcheevo”.
    Keywords: biodiversity conservation, environmental policy, benefits of natural services, ecosystem services
    JEL: Q50 Q51 Q57
    Date: 2015–03
  13. By: Ozcan Saritas (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Liliana N. Proskuryakova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); E. Kyzyngasheva (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Water resources are crucial for the continuity of life. Humans and living species need fresh water for drinking and sanitation, while most, if not all, industries need water for some part of production processes and products themselves. Access to fresh water is a grand challenge at the global level, mainly due to increasing water consumption, low rate of replenishment of resources as well as external factors, like climate change, that significantly reduce amount of water available. The solution to the existing water problems require a systemic approaches for sustainable use of water resources, while advancing water infrastructure and providing circular use of water. Research presented in this paper, focuses on the use of water resources in Russia with a long term perspective developed through a Foresight study. Russia is one of the countries, which is relatively better positioned compared to a number of other countries in the world regarding the availability of water resources. However, there are still considerable issues regarding the protection and use of water resources, purification processes, water networks, consumption patterns, discharge, treatment and re-use. The present study aims to develop strategies and for the use of water resources with a long term time perspective. The first step involved a scanning exercise, to be followed by future scenarios and strategy proposals for action. Presenting the results of the scanning phase, the paper begins with the review of the key issues and challenges concerning water resources. Particular attention is paid to the state-of-the-art in the three domains identified in the scope of research: (i) sustainability of water systems, (ii) water use by households and industry, and (iii) new water products and services. Furthermore, trends, weak signals and wild cards identified in the course of the study, as well as their implications on water resources in Russia are discussed. The paper concludes with a brief description of the next phases of the study and follow-up activities planned in the project
    Keywords: water resources, sustainable water systems, water use, water goods and services, trend scanning, weak signals, wild cards
    JEL: H4 H5 H87 I30 M11 R20 R52 Q01 Q02 Q15 Q18 Q22 Q25 Q26 Q27 Q53 Q54 Q55
    Date: 2015
  14. By: Pablo García
    Date: 2015–04
  15. By: Oleh Havrylyshyn
    Abstract: The first aim of this paper is to describe the main developments in the Ukrainian economy since its independence in 1991, focusing on the evolution of output, and the path of economic reforms — that is, to simply show what happened. The bottom line on that is well known: Ukraine’s economy performed very poorly, and its reforms moved quite slowly, lagging behind most of Central Europe and the Baltic, and even behind some FSU (Former Soviet Union) countries. This first task is a relatively easy one, though some measurement issues do need discussion. In comparison, the second aim — explaining why it happened, identifying the explanatory, causal factors — is much more difficult and contentious. Indeed, causation here means two dynamics: the relationship between performance and reform pace, and the underlying determinants of the slow reforms. The paper’s main effort will be to argue and present evidence that the poor economic performance is primarily due to the late and slow start on economic reforms. However, it only begins to point to the explanations for slow reforms and suggest a modeling approach to analyze this econometrically in future work. Contents of this publication were first presented by Oleh Havrylyshyn during the 135th mBank-CASE Seminar "A quarter century of economic reforms in Ukraine: too late, too slow, too little". / Niniejsze opracowanie ma na celu opisaæ g³ówne zmiany, jakie zasz³y w ukraiñskiej gospodarce od momentu odzyskania niepodleg³oœci w 1991 roku, równoczeœnie zwracaj¹c uwagê na rozwój produkcji i œcie¿ki reform gospodarczych. Dobrze znanym faktem jest, i¿ gospodarka Ukrainy funkcjonowa³a bardzo s³abo, a proces jej reformowania przebiega³ doœæ powoli, znacznie wolniej ni¿ w wiêkszoœci krajów Europy Œrodkowej i pañstw Ba³tyckich, a nawet niektórych krajów by³ego Zwi¹zku Radzieckiego. Kolejnym, o wiele bardziej problematycznym i kontrowersyjnym celem opracowania jest wyjaœnienie, dlaczego tak siê sta³o. W tym przypadku zwi¹zek przyczynowy powi¹zany jest z dwoma relacjami: zale¿noœci¹ miêdzy wydajnoœci¹ gospodarki i tempem reform, oraz czynnikami bêd¹cymi przyczyn¹ wolnego tempa reform. Najwa¿niejszym celem niniejszej pracy jest natomiast wykazanie oraz udowodnienie, ¿e s³abe wyniki gospodarcze s¹ przede wszystkim wynikiem póŸnego rozpoczêcia procesu reform oraz ich wolnego tempa. Jest ona jednak jedynie wstêpem do pe³nej analizy przyczyn opiesza³oœci we wprowadzaniu zmian oraz propozycja sposobów zastosowania metod ekonometrycznych do zbadania tego problemu w przysz³oœci. Treœæ Zeszytu zosta³a po raz pierwszy zaprezentowana przez Oleha Havrylyshyna podczas 135. Seminarium mBank-CASE: "Æwieræ wieku ukraiñskich reform: za ma³o, za póŸno i zbyt wolno".
    Keywords: banking and finance, competition, financial services, Ukraine, economic growth, economic development
    JEL: F5 P2 P26 P21 D02 E02 G2
    Date: 2015–03
  16. By: Decancq, Koen (CES, Univerity of Antwerp); Fleurbeay, Marc (Princeton University); Maniquet, François (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium)
    Abstract: We propose a new class of multidimensional poverty indices. To aggregate and weight the different dimensions of poverty, we rely on the preferences of the concerned agents rather than on an arbitrary weighting scheme selected by the analyst. The Pareto principle is, therefore, satisfied among the poor. The indices add up individual measures of poverty that are computed as a convex transform of the fraction of the poverty line vector to which the agent is indifferent. The axiomatic characterization of this class is grounded on new principles of interpersonal poverty comparisons and of inequality aversion among the poor. We illustrate our approach with Russian survey data between 1995 and 2005. We find that, compared to standard poverty indices, our preference sensitive indices lead to considerable differences in the identification of the poor and in subgroup poverty comparisons.
    Keywords: multidimensional poverty measurement, preferences
    JEL: D63 D71
    Date: 2015–02–23
  17. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Information and Communication Technologies - Telecommunications Infrastructure Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access Technology Industry Education - Education for the Knowledge Economy Private Sector Development - E-Business Industry
    Date: 2014–12
  18. By: Olle Ostensson; Bob Parsons; Samantha Dodd
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Industry - Mining & Extractive Industry (Non-Energy) Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Theory & Research Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Taxation & Subsidies Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets
    Date: 2014–06
  19. By: Andrzej Cieslik (University of Warsaw); Jan Michalek (University of Warsaw); Iryna Nasadiuk (University of Warsaw)
    Abstract: Following the new strand in the new trade theory literature that focuses on firm heterogeneity in this paper we investigate determinants of firm export performance in Ukraine. The study is based on the BEEPS firm level data compiled by EBRD and the World Bank. The study covers the period starting in 2005 and ending in 2013. We estimate probit regressions for each year of our sample as well as for the pooled dataset that includes all years. Our pooled estimation results indicate that the probability of exporting is related to the level of productivity, the firm size, R&D expenditure, the share of university graduates in productive employment, as well as the internationalization of firms. The estimation results obtained for particular countries reveal some degree of heterogeneity. In particular, the firm age is significant only in the last years of our sample.
    Keywords: Export activity, firm heterogeneity, Ukraine
    JEL: F14 P33
    Date: 2015–04
  20. By: Polterovich, Victor
    Abstract: It is shown that the evolution of modern developed societies results into reduction of the role of centralized governance as well as economic and political competition, whereas the role of collaboration mechanisms is growing. This process is supported by cultural changes: increasing trust, internalization of honesty norms, and thus mitigates the problem of free-riding. Collectivism and individualism in their extreme forms are being replaced by the culture of constructive collaboration and compromise. The cultural transformation creates new institutions and, the same time, is supported by them. Thereby the failures of market, state and parliamentary democracy are gradually being overcome. Instead of social liberalism, which reflects just a certain stage of this process and operates mainly by extremes such as the individual - the state or the state - the market, a more general view - the philosophy of collaboration (collaborativism) is suggested.
    Keywords: social liberalism, anarchism, collaboration, competition, collectivism, individualism, bankruptcy law, antimonopoly legislation, majority rule, parliamentary committee, institutional evolution
    JEL: B00 B4 B52 N00 P11
    Date: 2015–04–08
  21. By: Filipp Bykov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Vladimir A. Gordin (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper presents a method and computational technology for forecasting ambulance trips. We used statistical information about the number of the trips in 2009-2013, the meteorological archive, and the corresponding archive of the meteorological forecasts for the same period. We take into account social and meteorological predictors simultaneously. The method may be used operatively for planning in the ambulance service. It may be applied for all trips and for specific subgroups of diseases. The method and the technology may be applied for any megalopolis if the corresponding medical and meteorological information is available
    Keywords: weather forecasting, trips forecasting, disease, air temperature, correlation function, spline, optimization
    JEL: C32 C52 C53 C61 C63 I1
    Date: 2015

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