nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2015‒03‒22
nine papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Consumer Attitudes, Knowledge and Behavior in the Russian Market of Food By Meixner, Oliver; Haas, Rainer; Perevoshchikova, Yana; Canavari, Maurizio
  2. Does bank liquidity creation contribute to economic growth? Evidence from Russia By Fidrmuc, Jarko; Fungácová, Zuzana; Weill , Laurent
  3. Carbon emissions embodied in Russia’s trade By Igor A. Makarov; Anna K. Sokolova
  4. The Impact of Values, Gender and Education on Creative Behaviour in Different Domains in Russian Regions By Nadezhda Lebedeva; Ekaterina Bushina
  5. Disentangling loan demand and supply shocks in Russia By Deryugina, Elena; Kovalenko, Olga; Pantina, Irina; Ponomarenko , Alexey
  6. The Decentralization of Minimum Wage Setting in Russia Economies By Anna Lukiyanova; Nina Vishnevskaya
  7. A Time of Moderate Expectations By Amat Adarov; Vasily Astrov; Serkan Çiçek; Rumen Dobrinsky; Vladimir Gligorov; Doris Hanzl-Weiss; Peter Havlik; Mario Holzner; Gabor Hunya; Sebastian Leitner; Isilda Mara; Olga Pindyuk; Leon Podkaminer; Sandor Richter; Hermine Vidovic
  8. Методические особенности обучения математике бакалавров экономических направлений в условиях реализации ФГОС By Burmistrova, Natalya; Aleksenko, Natalia; Il'ina, Nadezhda
  9. Die Rubelkrise und Russlands Exportbeschränkungen für Getreide By Glauben, Thomas; Götz, Linde; Koester, Ulrich

  1. By: Meixner, Oliver; Haas, Rainer; Perevoshchikova, Yana; Canavari, Maurizio
    Abstract: In the last decades the market for organic food was well developed in Western European Countries and com-parable markets like the US or Canada. While these markets more or less approach market saturation, other markets still have huge potentials and are of special interest for exporting companies. In this paper we analyze demands, knowledge and expectations in the emerging market Russia. It is well documented that the Russian market for organic food has much higher growth rates compared to Western markets. According to the USDA, the market rose from about 640 million Rubel in 2004 to about 7.4 billion Rubel in 2011 (about 155 Mio €). This dramatic boost in sales might also be due to a significant change in Russians’ consumer behavior. Howev-er, some challenges have to be considered when entering the Russian market with premium products (organic food is usually sold at comparable high prices in Russia). (1) There is a huge number of low-income consumers who are not able to pay for premium products. (2) Up to now, there are no official organic labels available in Russia. Therefore, it is likely that the Russian population has a lack of knowledge on what organic food is and which requirements are connected to the organic production process. Considering these restrictions, it was interesting to analyze important factors for the food choice on the one hand and the knowledge of Russian consumers about organic food on the other. This contribution will present results for one specific product (organic potatoes) which can be considered to be a typical alternative to low priced, conventional products. A conjoint analysis was conducted in Saint Petersburg investigating the importance of buying attributes con-nected to organic potatoes (n = 300); obviously, the results are not representative for the whole Russian mar-ket. But the results impressively show how different consumers’ attitudes are compared to Western markets and how low the average knowledge about this product category still is. The findings deliver valuable infor-mation for all members within the supply chain who want to enter a market with high growth rates but also with obvious shortcomings.
    Keywords: Russian Federation, organic food, organic labels, food choice, consumer perception, conjoint analy-sis, Agribusiness, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,
    Date: 2014–10
  2. By: Fidrmuc, Jarko (BOFIT); Fungácová, Zuzana (BOFIT); Weill , Laurent (BOFIT)
    Abstract: The financial crisis has shown that the liquidity creation function of banks is critical for the economy. In this paper, we empirically investigate whether bank liquidity creation fosters economic growth in a large emerging market, Russia. We follow the methodology of Berger and Bouwman (2009) to measure bank liquidity creation using a rich and exhaustive dataset of Russian banks. We perform fixed effects and GMM estimations to examine the relation of liquidity creation to economic growth for Russian regions in the period 2004–2012. Our results suggest that bank liquidity creation fosters economic growth. This effect was not washed out by the financial crisis. Our conclusion thus supports a positive impact of financial development on economic growth in Russia.
    Keywords: growth; bank liquidity creation; financial development
    JEL: E44 G21
    Date: 2015–03–05
  3. By: Igor A. Makarov; Anna K. Sokolova
    Abstract: According to current international climate change regime countries are responsible for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which result from economic activities within national borders, including emissions from producing goods for exports. At the same time imports of carbon intensive goods are not regulated by international agreements. In this paper emissions embodied in exports and imports of Russia were calculated with the use of inter-country input-output tables. It was revealed that Russia is the second largest exporter of emissions embodied in trade and the large portion of these emissions is directed to developed countries. The reasons for high carbon intensity of Russia’s exports are obsolete technologies (in comparison to developed economies) and the structure of commodity exports. Because of large amount of net exports of carbon intensive goods the current approach to emissions accounting does not suit interests of Russia. On the one hand, Russia, as well as other large net emissions exporters, is interested in the revision of allocation of responsibility between producers and consumers of carbon intensive products. On the other hand, current technological backwardness makes Russia vulnerable to the policy of “carbon protectionism”, which can be implemented by its trade partners.
    Keywords: global climate change, carbon emissions, virtual carbon, carbon intensity of trade, Russia’s trade, input-output analysis, Kyoto protocol
    JEL: F18
    Date: 2015–03
  4. By: Nadezhda Lebedeva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Ekaterina Bushina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper presents results of the research into different types of creative behaviour and their predictors in the Central and North-Caucasus federal districts of Russia (N=2046). The revised PVQ-R questionnaire of Schwartz for values measurement and the modified Creative Behaviour Inventory (CBI) of Dollinger for creative behaviour measurement were used. The model with five different domains of creative behaviour: visual art, literature, craft, performance, organizational creativity and generalized creativity was confirmed in a simultaneous CFA in both regions. This model with values, gender and level of education as predictors was tested using structural equation modelling with AMOS 19.0. Values, education and gender influence creative behaviour in different domains. The value of Openness to Change positively, and the value of Conservation negatively influence creative behaviour in different domains in both the regions. The impacts of gender and education on creativity have domain and regional specifics: craft is a ‘female’ domain of creativity whereas organizational creativity is a ‘male’ one; higher education promotes organizational and visual creativity in both regions and literature creativity in the North Caucasus
    Keywords: creativity, domains of creativity, values, gender, education
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2015
  5. By: Deryugina, Elena (BOFIT); Kovalenko, Olga (BOFIT); Pantina, Irina (BOFIT); Ponomarenko , Alexey (BOFIT)
    Abstract: This article presents three alternative models for decomposing loan developments into components associated with changes in loan demand and supply fundamentals. Two models are based on macro data (error correction model and structural vector autoregression with sign restrictions) and one is based on bank-specific Bank Lending Survey results. We conclude that although loan growth in Russia converges to a long-run equilibrium determined by macroeconomic (demand) factors the convergence is likely to be driven by bank-side (supply) shocks. We identify large and unexplained supply shocks in loan fluctuations during the crisis of 2008–2009, signifying an impairment of credit markets. We also find contractionary shocks unrelated to demand fundamentals or balance sheet structures in 2013, although in general loan developments in 2013 and the first half of 2014 were not at all extraordinary.
    Keywords: loan demand; loan supply; cointegration; structural VAR; sign restrictions; Bank Lending Survey; Russia
    JEL: C32 E51 G21
    Date: 2015–03–05
  6. By: Anna Lukiyanova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Nina Vishnevskaya (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: In this paper, we study the minimum wage reform in Russia, which aimed to decentralize the fixing of the minimum wage and to increase the involvement of social partners in this process. The old system of the minimum wage setting was based on a single nation-wide minimum wage, which was differentiated across regions and occupations via a cumbersome framework of coefficients. The new system is a mixture of a government-legislated minimum wage at the federal level and collective agreements at regional levels. We show that the system of minimum wage setting has become more flexible. The reform succeeded in raising the real value of the minimum wage and increasing earnings of low paid workers without causing considerable negative effects in terms of employment. However, the reform did not lead to greater regional variation of minimum wages. It introduced some new imbalances: an unintended consequence of the reform was the emergence of separate regional wage sub-minima for private and public sector workers in many regions. The major challenge in coming years is to strengthen the institutions of collective bargaining, introduce evidence-based evaluation and boost the capacities of government and non-government monitoring agencies
    Keywords: minimum wage, wage policy, Russia, decentralization
    JEL: J31 J38 D33
    Date: 2015
  7. By: Amat Adarov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Serkan Çiçek (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vladimir Gligorov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Growth in the CESEE region will follow the unimpressive pattern displayed by the euro area. The longer-term convergence of income levels in the CESEE countries can no longer be expected to be as rapid as was assumed a decade or so ago. Growth in the period 2015-2017 is not going to deviate substantially from the pace recorded in 2014. For the new EU Member States growth is expected to remain slightly below 3% in the years to come. This implies an average growth differential of about 1.5 percentage points as compared to the euro area – about half of what it was before the global financial crisis. On the other hand, most of the countries in the region are also expected to evade the dangers of runaway inflation, fiscal deficits or excessive foreign borrowing that often plagued them in the past. These are the main results of the newly released medium-term growth forecast for the region by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw). Depressed aggregate domestic demand has been the major factor behind anaemic growth. This is evidenced by disinflation (or even mildly deflationary tendencies) across much of the region, as well as the persistence of fairly high unemployment. There is some evidence of a ‘race to the bottom’ in terms of wage setting. While wage moderation strengthens profitability and external competitiveness, it also weakens disposable household incomes and thus slows down growth in domestic demand. Apparently, there is a trade-off between improvements in the trade balance and more rapid growth in domestic demand. Overall, GDP growth is being held ‘on a short leash’. Growth in public investment may be supporting economic growth, especially in those new EU Member States (NMS) that have access to EU funds. However, a proper rebound in private-sector investment is still lacking. Weak private-sector investment cannot be attributed to a ‘profit squeeze’ in the corporate sector. On the contrary, the corporate sector has been doing very well, at least in those NMS for which relevant data are available. The corporate sector as a whole still tends to lend rather than borrow. The means available to the corporate sector appear to be plentiful at present – but the sector still prefers to lick its wounds inflicted by former excessive borrowing or extend loans (primarily to the public sector) rather than to invest productively. Loans are stagnant even in those instances where interest rates are relatively low. With a few exceptions (largely on the region’s periphery) the stocks of loans to the non-financial corporate sector increased marginally at best in 2014. This may reflect firms’ pessimistic assessment of future growth in demand, increased ‘liquidity preference’ or the relative abundance of the means at their disposal. Non-performing loans are linked to a high share of borrowing in foreign currencies. The recent strengthening of the Swiss franc will bear some negative consequences for those firms and households that borrowed heavily in that currency in the past. New evidence supports the claim that the countries with floating exchange rates fare better in the medium to long term. They tend to avoid irreversible currency overvaluation, whereas the countries with fixed exchange rates do not quite avert it. It is argued, however, that despite the rigidity of the exchange rates, overvaluation can be avoided – at least in the medium term. All the CESEE countries are running up fiscal deficits. Current account deficits are still depressed. Net national lending in the NMS tends to be positive. This is a consequence of current savings in the private sector in the NMS generally running ahead of gross fixed capital formation in that sector. On average, output growth across the NMS will become more uniform in 2015 – albeit not any faster. Average growth will remain at 2.7% in 2015. Some acceleration in marginal growth is to be expected in the biennium 2016-2017. Unemployment in the NMS will recede only gradually. Low inflation will prevail in 2015, but it will gradually return to more normal levels in 2016. Under sustained – albeit rather anaemic – growth, the current account balances will deteriorate (although they will still remain comparatively low). Growth is hardly accelerating in the (current and potential) EU candidate countries either. Output in those countries is not expected to grow faster than in the NMS. Turkey, Macedonia and Kosovo may fare slightly better than the rest of the group, with growth rates of above 3% in 2015. However, with the exception of Turkey, those countries seem to have put high inflation behind them. Nonetheless, their unemployment figures continue to be dismal (less so only in Turkey). They will also run high (or even very high) current account deficits. Most of the successor states to the Soviet Union will perform rather badly in 2015. Ukraine’s output will continue its free fall as many of the country’s industrial centres have become battlefields. A drop of 5% in economic growth is expected for 2015. The decline in world market prices for energy carriers will negatively affect both Kazakhstan and Russia, with real output in the latter country dropping sharply by almost 4% in 2015. A similar fate will befall Belarus a country that relies heavily on exports to Russia and Ukraine. However, assuming a peaceful resolution to the Ukrainian conflict in 2015, it is expected that all the successor states will resume moderate growth in 2016 or 2017.
    Keywords: Central and East European new EU Member States, Southeast Europe, Balkans, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Turkey, economic forecasts, secular stagnation, functional distribution of income, wage-led growth, investment, deflation, sectoral financial balances, deleveraging, exchange rates, beta convergence
    JEL: C33 C50 E12 E20 E29 E65 E66 F02 F34 G01 G18 O52 P24 P27 P33 P52
    Date: 2015–03
  8. By: Burmistrova, Natalya; Aleksenko, Natalia; Il'ina, Nadezhda
    Abstract: The author considers the methodological features of teaching mathematics bachelors economy based on competence-based approach. The analysis of the objectives, contents of teaching mathematics in the logic of competence-based approach. The necessity of forming the ability to use mathematical knowledge and skills in their future professional activity
    Keywords: обучение математике, компетентностный подход, математическое моделирование
    JEL: A22 C02
    Date: 2014–04–10
  9. By: Glauben, Thomas; Götz, Linde; Koester, Ulrich
    Abstract: Seit dem 1. Februar 2015 werden russische Weizenexporte zusätzlich besteuert, um die jüngst stark angestiegenen Weizenexporte zu reduzieren. Ziel ist es, dem weiteren Ansteigen der bereits hohen inländischen Weizenpreise entgegenzuwirken und die Brotpreise zu stabilisieren. Erfahrungen der jüngeren Vergangenheit in verschiedenen Ländern, darunter in der Ukraine, in Kasachstan, Serbien und Russland selbst, zeigen jedoch, dass Getreideexportbeschränkungen nur geringfügig oder gar nicht zur Dämpfung von Brotpreisen beitragen. Auch ärmere Bevölkerungsschichten werden von diesen staatlichen Eingriffen nicht profitieren. Vielmehr führt dies zur Abkopplung der russischen Getreidewirtschaft von den internationalen Märkten, notwendige Investitionen in den Getreidesektor werden abnehmen und damit dem Ziel der Ernährungssicherung entgegenwirken. Man muss mit Sorge auf diese Form des staatlichen Protektionismus blicken. Gerade während der jetzigen Talfahrt der russischen Wirtschaft trägt eine Destabilisierung des strategisch wichtigen Getreidesektors sicherlich nicht zur Verbesserung des Investitionsklimas in Russland bei.
    Date: 2015

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