nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2015‒02‒22
seven papers chosen by

  1. Itâ??s not just Russia: Currency crisis in the Commonwealth of independent states By Marek Dabrowski
  2. In Search Of Critical Capacity: Exploring Attitudes Of Npo Leaders In Russia By Anael Labigne; Olga N. Kononykhina; Irina V. Mersianova
  3. Economic Effects of the Abolition of Serfdom: Evidence from the Russian Empire By Markevich, Andrei; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
  4. Spillover effects of TTIP on BRICS economies : a dynamic GVC-based CGE model By Cai, Songfeng; Zhang, Yaxiong; Meng, Bo
  5. Quantifying Economic Integration of the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union: Methodological Approaches By Pelipas, Igor; Tochitskaya, Irina; Vinokurov, Evgeny
  6. Turkey’s Rising Imports from BRICS: A Gravity Model Approach By Dinçer, Gönül
  7. Doing Lexical Typology With Frames And Semantic Maps By Ekaterina V. Rakhilina; Tatiana I. Reznikova

  1. By: Marek Dabrowski
    Abstract: â?¢ The currency crisis that started in Russia and Ukraine during 2014 has spread to neighbouring countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The collapse of the Russian ruble, expected recession in Russia, the stronger US dollar and lower commodity prices have negatively affected the entire region, with the consequence that the European Union's entire eastern neighbourhood faces serious economic, social and political challenges because of weaker currencies, higher inflation, decreasing export revenues and labour remittances, net capital outflows and stagnating or declining GDP. â?¢ The crisis requires a proper policy response from CIS governments, the International Monetary Fund and the EU. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict in Donbass requires rapid resolution, as the first step to return Russia to the mainstream of global economic and political cooperation. Beyond that, both Russia and Ukraine need deep structural and institutional reforms. The EU should deepen economic ties with those CIS countries that are interested in a closer relationship with Europe. The IMF should provide additional assistance to those CIS countries that have become victims of a new regional contagion, while preparing for the possibility of more emerging-market crises arising from slower growth, the stronger dollar and lower commodity pric
    Date: 2015–02
  2. By: Anael Labigne (Stifterverband); Olga N. Kononykhina (Hertie School of Governance); Irina V. Mersianova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Following a public sphere approach to civil society research, we develop a working definition of Critical Capacity to analyze what leaders of Russian nonprofit organizations (NPOs) say regarding their political embeddedness. Theoretically, we stress the value added of differentiating more explicitly between the nonprofit sector, the third sector and civil society – the Critical Capacity concept represents a way forward towards applying that essential differentiation. Empirically, factor analysis on representative and current survey data confirms four dimensions of Critical Capacity, namely NPO leaders’ attitudes toward the role of the state, other NPOs, international cooperation as well as recent political events. In a second step, and based on these four dimensions, a cluster analytical model helps us to identify six reliable opinion clusters as well as the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of each group. Finally, we conclude on strength and weaknesses of our approach and address further research
    Keywords: cluster analysis; critical capacity, civil society; institutionalism, nonprofit sector; public sphere; Russia; third sector
    JEL: C21 D64
    Date: 2015
  3. By: Markevich, Andrei; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
    Abstract: We document a very large increase in agricultural productivity, peasants’ living standards, and industrial development in the 19th century Imperial Russia as a result of the abolition of serfdom. We construct a novel province-level panel dataset of development outcomes and conduct a difference-in-differences analysis relying on cross-sectional variation in the shares of serfs and over-time variation in emancipation controlling for region-specific trends. We disentangle the effects of the emancipation and the subsequent land reform and show that land reform contributed negatively to agricultural productivity in contrast to a large positive effect of the emancipation. The evidence is consistent with the increase in the power of the peasant commune as the channel of the negative effect of the land reform. The different organizational forms of serfdom were associated with different levels of nutrition of serfs and productivity. The emancipation of serfs from estates where serfs were obliged to work on the landlord’s farm (corvee, barshchina) caused an increase in height of their children by 1.6 centimeters. Estates where serfs were required to make in kind payment to the landlord (quitrent, obrok) were equally productive, but, in contrast, their emancipation did not lead to rise in their height. Commitment to an implicit longer-term contract on the amount of serf obligations to landlords, practiced in some estates, made serfdom more productive.
    Keywords: development; forced labor; Russian empire; serfdom
    JEL: N33 N35 O1
    Date: 2015–02
  4. By: Cai, Songfeng; Zhang, Yaxiong; Meng, Bo
    Abstract: This paper uses a GVC (Global Value Chain)-based CGE model to assess the impact of TTIP between the U.S. and the EU on their main trading partners who are mainly engaged at the low end in the division system of global value chains, such as BRICS countries. The simulation results indicate that in general the TTIP would positively impact global trade and economies due to the reduction of both tariff and non-tariff barriers. With great increases in the US–EU bilateral trade, significant economic gains for the U.S. and the EU can be expected. For most BRICS countries, the aggregate exports and GDP suffer small negative impacts from the TTIP, except Brazil, but the inter-country trade within BRICS economies increases due to the substitution effect between the US–EU trade and the imports from BRICS countries when the TTIP commences.
    Keywords: Brazil, India, China, Russia, United States, Europe, International trade, Economic conditions, Trade policy, TTIP, BRICS, GVC, NTBs, Spillover
    JEL: C68 D58 F13
    Date: 2015–01–09
  5. By: Pelipas, Igor; Tochitskaya, Irina; Vinokurov, Evgeny
    Abstract: Despite current political headwinds, there is need for a timely expert assessment of the comprehensive economic integration between the European Union (EU) and the emerging Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). This report constitutes a preliminary methodological study. It starts off by offering a general understanding of the possible scope and limits of EU-EEU economic integration. It surveys the available literature on the various impacts that may arise if regional trade and investment agreements come into force. The report examines the use of computable general equilibrium models for assessment of the economic impact of integration agreements. It also analyses econometric methods used to study regional integration; and it discusses the applicability and constraints of other methods used to evaluate the effects of regional commercial agreements. The report presents a brief analysis of the methodology of assessing the impact of lifting non-tariff barriers.
    Keywords: economic integration, regional integration, European Union, Eurasian Economic Union, non-tariff barriers, Europe, Eurasia, Russia
    JEL: F13 F15 F5
    Date: 2014
  6. By: Dinçer, Gönül
    Abstract: The share of BRICS countries in the world trade is significantly rising for more than a decade and it was approximately 3 % in 1980, 6 % in 2000 and 16 % in 2013 in the total world imports. The same rising pattern of BRICS is also being seen in Turkey’s trade since early 2000s. In this study, the imports of Turkey from BRICS are analyzed using an augmented gravity model over the period 2002-2012. The results indicate that the basic gravity variables are consistent with the theory. Furthermore, R&D expenditures in Turkey is negatively correlated with Turkey’s imports from BRICS countries whereas R&D expenditures in BRICS countries are positively correlated.
    Keywords: International Trade, the Gravity Model, Panel Data Analysis, BRICS, Turkey
    JEL: C33 F10 F14
    Date: 2014–10–11
  7. By: Ekaterina V. Rakhilina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Tatiana I. Reznikova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: In this paper we present an approach to lexical typology which will be referred to as the “frame method”. It was developed and tested in the Moscow Lexico-Typological Group and is currently used in all its projects, such as Majsak, Rakhilina (eds.) 2007, Britsyn et al. (eds.) 2009, Kruglyakova 2010, Reznikova et al. 2012. Our main principle, taken from the Moscow semantic school (Apresjan 1974/1992, cf. also Firth 1957: 11), is that lexical meanings can be studied and reconstructed by observing the word’s “surroundings”, primarily their collocation. Then, they can be compared by procedures similar to those used in grammatical typology. Section One will clarify the goals of lexical typology (LT), as we see them in relation to our method, and the method itself will be presented in more detail in Section Two.
    Keywords: lexical typology, semantics, frame-based approach
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2014

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