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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2015‒02‒16
eight papers chosen by |
| By: | Vinokurov, Evgeny; Kulik, Sergey; Spartak, Andrey; Yurgens, Igor |
| Abstract: | The report represents the first part of a project targeting the problems and prospects of two economic integration projects in Greater Europe — the European project (European Union) and the Eurasian project (Russia, the Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic Union). This topic is particularly relevant in light of the Ukrainian crisis, the signing of Association Agreements with the EU by Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, as well as the looming threat of „continental fracture‟. |
| Keywords: | economic integration, Europe, Russia, Customs Union, Eurasian Economic Union, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine |
| JEL: | F13 F15 F5 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:61636&r=cis |
| By: | Mironov, V.V. (BOFIT); Petronevich , A.V. (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the problem of Dutch disease in Russia during the oil boom of the 2000s, from both the theoretical and empirical points of view. Our analysis is based on the classical model of Dutch disease by Corden and Neary (1982). We examine the relationship between changes in the real effective exchange rate of the ruble and the evolution of the Russian economic structure during the period 2002 – 2013. We empirically test the main effects of Dutch disease, controlling for specific features of the Russian economy, namely the large role of state-owned organizations. We estimate the resource movement and spending effects as determined by the theoretical model and find the presence of several signs of Dutch disease: the negative impact of the real effective exchange rate on growth in the manufacturing sector, the growth of total income of workers, and the positive link between the real effective exchange rate and returns on capital in all three sectors. Although also predicted by the model and clearly observable, the shift of labor from manufacturing to services cannot be explained by ruble appreciation alone. |
| Keywords: | Dutch disease; resource curse; real effective exchange rate; cointegration model; economic policy; Russia |
| JEL: | C32 F41 F43 |
| Date: | 2015–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2015_003&r=cis |
| By: | Dmitry Leontiev (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Elena Rasskazova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an investigation of sources of subjective happiness and their relationships to subjective well-being, taking into consideration cross-cultural specificity. 76 participants from two different Russian cities (Moscow and Petropavlovsk) were asked to write down things which make them happy and then to evaluate their actual attainability for them. The data were compared with Italian data (Galati et al., 2006) from 133 participants. The results reveal some cultural and regional differences in sources of happiness and a large degree of similarity. Paradoxically, regional differences in both the importance and attainability of separate sources of happiness within Russia are more pronounced than the differences between Russia and Italy. The mean indices of the attainability of happiness were similar for Italian and both Russian samples. We also found significant correlations between the mean individual attainability of happiness and well-being, which were much higher in Moscow than in Petropavlovsk. Some interesting correlations between sources of happiness and demographic and personality variables are revealed. A cluster analysis of the sources of happiness distinguished two large clusters, one including common ‘mundane’ sources, and another more individual sources. The last finding is in line with Leontiev’s two-level model of happiness. A cluster analysis of participants was in line with the analysis of sources and revealed two groups: the first one tends to choose happiness sources ‘passively’ and the second choosing individualized happiness sources |
| Keywords: | happiness sources; happiness attainability; well-being; cultural and individual differences. |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:31psy2014&r=cis |
| By: | Sergei Guriev (Département d'économie); Maxim Ananyev (UCLA) |
| Abstract: | This paper draws on a natural experiment to identify the relationship between income and trust. We use a unique panel dataset on Russia where GDP experienced an 8 percent drop in 2009. The effect of the crisis had been very uneven among Russian regions because of their differences in industrial structure inherited from the Soviet times. We find that the regions that specialize in producing capital goods, as well as those depending on oil and gas, had a more substantial income decline during the crisis. The variation in the industrial structure allows creating an instrument for the change in income. After instrumenting average regional income, we find that the effect of income on generalized social trust (the share of respondents saying that most people can be trusted) is statistically and economically significant. Controlling for conventional determinants of trust, we show that 10 percent decrease in income is associated with 5 percentage point decrease in trust. Given that the average level of trust in Russia is 25%, this magnitude is substantial. We also find that post-crisis economic recovery did not restore pre-crisis trust level. Trust recovered only in those regions where the 2009 decline in trust was small. In the regions with the large decline in trust during the crisis, trust in 2014 was still 10 percentage points below its pre-crisis level. |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/18morovaof8fdbvqtbkas8cvhm&r=cis |
| By: | Sergei Guriev (Département d'économie); Maxim Ananyev (UCLA) |
| Abstract: | This paper draws on a natural experiment to identify the relationship between income and trust. We use a unique panel dataset on Russia where GDP experienced an 8 percent drop in 2009. The effect of the crisis had been very uneven among Russian regions because of their differences in industrial structure inherited from the Soviet times. We find that the regions that specialize in producing capital goods, as well as those depending on oil and gas, had a more substantial income decline during the crisis. The variation in the industrial structure allows creating an instrument for the change in income. After instrumenting average regional income, we find that the effect of income on generalized social trust (the share of respondents saying that most people can be trusted) is statistically and economically significant. Controlling for conventional determinants of trust, we show that 10 percent decrease in income is associated with 5 percentage point decrease in trust. Given that the average level of trust in Russia is 25%, this magnitude is substantial. We also find that post-crisis economic recovery did not restore pre-crisis trust level. Trust recovered only in those regions where the 2009 decline in trust was small. In the regions with the large decline in trust during the crisis, trust in 2014 was still 10 percentage points below its pre-crisis level. |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/18morovaof8fdbvqtbkas8cvhm&r=cis |
| By: | Cobanli, Onur; Hubert, Franz |
| Abstract: | We use the Shapley value and the nucleolus to analyze the impact of three controversial pipeline projects on the power structure in the Eurasian trade of natural gas. Two pipelines, `Nord Stream' and `South Stream', allow Russian gas to bypass transit countries, Ukraine and Belarus. The third project, `Nabucco', aims at diversifying Europe's gas imports by accessing producers in Middle East and Central Asia. For the Shapley Value we obtain a clear ranking of the projects which corresponds to the observed investment patterns. Nord Stream's strategic value is huge, easily justifying the high investment cost for Germany and Russia. The additional leverage obtained through South Stream is much smaller and Nabucco is not viable. For the nucleolus in contrast, none of the pipelines has any strategic relevance at all, which appears to be at odds with the empirical evidence. |
| JEL: | C71 L50 L95 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc14:100596&r=cis |
| By: | Miller, Marcus (University of Warwick); Smith, Jennifer C. (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | An ‘efficiency wage’ model developed for Western economies is reinterpreted in the context of Stalin’s Russia, with imprisonment – not unemployment – acting as a ‘worker discipline device’. The threat of imprisonment allows the state to pay a lower wage outside the Gulag than otherwise, thereby raising the “surplus” left over for investment: this externality provides a reason for coercion over and above the direct productivity of those in custody. Just how credible the threat of imprisonment was under Stalin is documented using archival data now available; but the enormous scale of random imprisonment involved is, we argue, attributable not to economic factors but to Stalin’s insecurity in the absence of a legitimate process for succession. We develop a model of demand and supply for industrial labour in such a command economy. To get more resources for investment or war, the state depresses the level of real wages; to avoid incentive problems in the wider economy, the harshness of prison conditions can be intensified. This is the logic of coercion we analyse. |
| Keywords: | Labour discipline, asymmetric information, efficiency wage, Soviet Union, Stalin |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:2018&r=cis |
| By: | Kubatko Oleksandr; Kubatko Oleksandra |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the influence of pollution on population health outcomes throughmeasuring direct and indirect pollution health effects. It is found that air pollution increase thenumber of population morbidities, and responsible on average for 10.3% of all incidents ofcardiovascular morbidity; 11% of digestion morbidity cases, 16% of respiratory morbidity cases,30% and 10.5% of man lung cancer and women lung cancer respectively. Also air pollution isresponsible on average for 3.6% of all mortality cases in Ukraine. Total economic costs attributed toair pollution and selected morbidity indicators in 2011 were in a range 0.7%-1.3% of GDP. |
| JEL: | I Q |
| Date: | 2015–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:15/01e&r=cis |