nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2015‒01‒26
eighteen papers chosen by

  1. The influence of infrastructure on regional wheat trade in Russia: A gravity model approach By Renner, Swetlana; Götz, Linde; Prehn, Sören; Glauben, Thomas
  2. Economic growth and nutrition transition: an empirical study comparing demand elasticities for foods in China and Russia By Burggraf, Christine; Kuhn, Lena; Zhao, Qiran; Glauben, Thomas; Teuber, Ramona
  3. Price Damping and Price Insulating Effects of Wheat Export Restrictions in Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine By Götz, Linde; Djuric, Ivan
  4. Export Performance and Survival in Russia: Why some Regions grow fast and others don't By Sergey Kadochnikov; Anna Fedyunina
  5. The Pro-Russian Conflict and its Impact on Stock Returns in Russia and the Ukraine By Manuel Hoffmann; Matthias Neuenkirch
  6. How well does the crop insurance market function in Russia? By Bobojonov, Ihtiyor; Goetz, Linde; Glauben, Thomas
  7. Complementation Strategies Of Russian Verbs Of Request By Denis P. Kirianov; Maria G. Tagabileva
  8. Agro-holdings in Russia: Temporary phenomenon or a prevailing business form? By Voigt, Peter; Wolz, Axel
  9. Мировоззренческий подход к выработке предложений по развитию новой экономики, основанной на развитии несырьевого производства, современных технологиях и реализации человеческого потенциала By Валентина Михайловна Бондаренко
  10. Incentives For Repeated Contracts In Public Sector: Empirical Study Of Gasoline Procurement In Russia By Andrei Yakovlev; Oleg Vyglovsky; Olga Demidova; Alexander Bashlyk
  11. International Comparison of Cost and Efficiency of Corn and Soybean Production By Lunik, Elizabeth; Langemeier, Michael
  12. Corruption in Public Procurement: efficient and quasi-efficient By Andrey Ivanov
  13. Domestic and Multilateral Effects of Capital Controls in Emerging Markets By Gurnain Pasricha; Matteo Falagiarda; Martin Bijsterbosch; Joshua Aizenman
  14. Meditation In The Emotional Intelligence Improvement Among Russian-Speakıng Migrants In Germany By Afanasyev, Sergey
  15. After communism: 25 years of revolution By Peter Boone
  16. Union économique eurasienne : vers un retour de Moscou en Asie centrale ? By Bayram Balci
  17. Can State Language Policies Distort Students’ Demand for Education? By Muravyev, Alexander; Talavera, Oleksandr
  18. Development and application of the monetary rule for the base interest rate of the National Bank of Ukraine By Savchenko, Taras; Kozmenko, Serhiy; Piontkovska, Yanina

  1. By: Renner, Swetlana; Götz, Linde; Prehn, Sören; Glauben, Thomas
    Abstract: We investigate the determinants of Russian regional wheat flows focusing on the role played by transport costs and regional infrastructure. We adapt the Anderson & van Wincoop (2003) gravity model to regional trade by considering a regional border effect and by assuming that trade costs are also determined by infrastructure variables. Our model identifies positive effects of the number and the average loading capacity of grain rail terminals in the region. This analysis reveals substantial effects of infrastructure on interregional wheat trade in Russia. Especially, the quality of infrastructure seems to have a strong effect, suggesting that improvements of infrastructure should focus on the improvements of the quality rather than the quantity of infrastructure.
    Keywords: wheat trade, gravity model, infrastructure, Russia, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2014–08
  2. By: Burggraf, Christine; Kuhn, Lena; Zhao, Qiran; Glauben, Thomas; Teuber, Ramona
    Abstract: Considering emerging economies like China and Russia, we analyze whether income growth as a major driver of nutrition transition has a significant effect on the consumption of different food aggregates and how these effects differ between both countries. Therefore, we estimate expenditure elasticities of Chinese and Russian consumers for six different food aggregates. Our results indicate that future income growth in China and Russia will continue to increase meat and fat consumption. Although being a positive signal for problems of malnutrition in China that trend tends to further increase the incidence of nutrition-related chronic diseases in both countries.
    Keywords: nutrition transition, food expenditure elasticities, Russia, China, Demand and Price Analysis,
    Date: 2014–08
  3. By: Götz, Linde; Djuric, Ivan
    Abstract: This study analyzes the domestic price effects of export controls for all 3 KRU countries during the global commodity price peaks. We develop two indicators to measure the strength of the export controls’ price damping and price insulating effect within a non-linear long-run price transmission model. Our analysis comprises 11 cases of export controls. Our results indicate heterogeneity in the damping and insulating effects of the export controls among the KRU where only two cases recorded the strongest effects: export ban in Russia (2010) and export tax system in Ukraine (2011).We argue that the effectiveness of export controls in the KRU is generally rather limited.
    Keywords: export controls, market integration, price transmission, crisis policy, Russia, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2014–08
  4. By: Sergey Kadochnikov; Anna Fedyunina
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the relationship between export performance and economic growth in Russian regions. We propose a methodology for decomposition of export growth into intensive and extensive margins and distinguish between product- and geographic extensive components within extensive margin. An empirical analysis suggests that higher growth rates in Russian regions are associated with higher intensive margin. We reveal significant differences in export survival of differentiated and homogeneous flows and find evidence of strong effects of distance and institutions on export survival. We argue that Russian regions would experience higher economic growth if they were able to improve their export performance at the intensive margin by providing lower transport costs to the business and by enhancing higher quality of institutions.
    Keywords: export performance, economic growth, intensive margin, extensive margin, export survival, Russian regions
    JEL: F14 R1
    Date: 2015–01
  5. By: Manuel Hoffmann; Matthias Neuenkirch
    Abstract: We analyze the impact of the pro-Russian conflict on stock returns in Russia and the Ukraine during the period November 21, 2013 to September 29, 2014. We utilize a newly created indicator for the degree of (de-)escalation based on an Internet search for conflict-related news. We find that intensification of the conflict reduces Russian and Ukrainian stock returns. The (de-)escalation of the pro-Russian conflict in the Ukraine accounts for a total variation of 6.5 (8.7) percentage points in the Russian (Ukrainian) stock market.
    Keywords: Conflict-Related News, Pro-Russian Conflict, Russia, Sanctions, Stock Returns, Ukraine
    JEL: F30 G12 G14 G15
    Date: 2015
  6. By: Bobojonov, Ihtiyor; Goetz, Linde; Glauben, Thomas
    Abstract: In this paper we aim to investigate the demand for crop insurance in Russia, identifying primary influencing factors. We use a cross sectional yearly data set on participation in crop insurance and agricultural production for about 60 regions (oblasts) of Russia for the years 2008-2011. We follow Goodwin’s (1993) approach to estimate the crop insurance demand model with the proportion of planted acres insured as the dependent variables. Our results suggest that the previous subsidy policy to reimburse 50 percent of the insurance premiums has reduced the demand for crop insurance. This may be explained by the negative price elasticity of insurance demand as well as with the cumbersome reimbursement mechanism. Furthermore, operation costs of insurance companies lie above international averages and absorb nearly all governmental subsidies without transferring it to the producers. Therefore, the insurance program in Russia does not function as a subsidy transfer mechanism for farmers. The improvement of the efficiency of the insurance industry in Russia is required in order to increase the attractiveness of the program.
    Keywords: Crop insurance, Russia, Risk and Uncertainty,
    Date: 2014–08
  7. By: Denis P. Kirianov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Maria G. Tagabileva (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper describes the competition of complementation strategies of Russian verbs of request. We conducted a corpus-based study of six strategies of compelement encoding: infinitive, nominalisation, prepositional phrase with nominalisation, finite clause introduced with complementizer ctoby, non-finite clause introduced with complementizer ctoby (i.e. ctoby + infinitive), prepositional phrase with ctoby and expletive pronoun to (o tom ctoby). The results suggest that there are several factors influencing the competition under consideration (such as coreference of different participants, request dictance, etc.) and that these factors belong to different language domains, including semantics. This challenges the classic point of view according to which complementation studies should be focused primarily on syntax
    Keywords: syntax, complementation, complements competition, verbs of request, Russian
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2014
  8. By: Voigt, Peter; Wolz, Axel
    Abstract: Since the 1990s, in Russia, numerous large scale agro-holdings emerged, which link various farms, entities of the upstream and downstream sectors, and even totally unrelated industries. As all these affiliates are legally registered as independent units, there is only scant information about the holdings' overall performance. Based on a unique panel data set from Moscow and Belgorod regions, we investigated the growth trajectories of farms belonging to agro-holdings vis-à-vis independent farms by applying a quantile regression approach. Evidence points to little differences among general performance indicators of both types. Any advantages of affiliated farms appear to be due to extramural factors; i.e. it is all about how to link individual production units, thus benefiting from strong positioning in local and regional markets and making the most of the lobbied ties to the relevant politics. In sum, agro-holdings are assumed to remain as a model for organizing agricultural production.
    Keywords: agro-holdings, company trajectories, Gross Value Added (GVA) growth performance, quantile regression analysis, Russia, farm level, Agribusiness, O13, P32, Q13,
    Date: 2014–08
  9. By: Валентина Михайловна Бондаренко
    Abstract: В статье анализируются причины безуспешного поиска альтернатив перехода экономики России на развитие не сырьевого сектора и дается авторская позиция по этому вопросу. Обосновывается эта позиция тем, что решить эту проблему можно, если взглянуть на нее с мировоззренческих позиций и осуществить синхронное формирование базиса: новой среды человеческого бытия, достижений третьей промышленной революции и механизма их реализации на основе согласования в реальном времени интересов государства, общества, бизнеса с интересами каждого конкретного человека. <P> The article is focused on analysis of the factors that cause failures in the search of alternatives to transition of Russian economy to development of the non-resource sector, and presents the author’s position on the given issue. Firm grounds are provided to prove that this problem can be resolved, if it addressed from visionary positions, and if the basis is built simultaneously to include the new environment for human existence, attainments of the third industrial revolution and the mechanism for their realization to be based on the real-time coordination of the interests of the state, society, business as well as interests of each specific human individual.
    Keywords: visionary approach, goal, non-resource model, basic relations, digital revolution in production, coordination of interests, specific human being, mega-project.
    JEL: P16 E17 O11
    Date: 2015–01–14
  10. By: Andrei Yakovlev (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Oleg Vyglovsky (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Olga Demidova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Alexander Bashlyk (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the phenomenon of repeated procurements made by public sector customers from the same supplier. The previous surveys of “relational contracts” gave different explanations for the possible implications of such repeated procurements, but those surveys dealt mostly with goods and services, with quality difficult to verify at the point of delivery. This work studies the impact of repeated procurements on the price of a simple homogeneous product. We presume that the downward price shift of such a product during repeated procurements can be the consequence of transaction costs reduction in the framework of the bona fide behavior of a customer and supplier. An upward shift in the prices as compared to the market average can, on the contrary, be interpreted as an indirect indication of corrupt collusion between them. Using a huge dataset on procurements of AI-92 gasoline in Russia in 2011, we show that the price difference between repeated and one-time contracts can be explained by the type of procurement procedures providing different opportunities for corrupt behavior. Less transparent procedures (single-sourcing and requests for quotations) are more suitable for corrupt collusion. This might explain why the prices of repeat contracts in this case were higher. On the contrary, the prices of repeat contracts were lower compared to one-time procurement in the case of more transparent e-auctions.
    Keywords: public procurement, repeated contracts, relational contracting, corruption, e-auction
    JEL: H57 L14
    Date: 2014
  11. By: Lunik, Elizabeth; Langemeier, Michael
    Abstract: The objective of this paper was to examine the cost efficiency of corn and soybean production for typical farms involved in the cash crop agri benchmark network. Using a data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach, efficiency indices were computed for 35 corn farms, representing 15 countries including Argentina, Bulgaria, Brazil, China, Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Russia, Ukraine, United States, Uruguay, Vietnam, and South Africa. Average technical efficiency was 0.497, average allocative efficiency was 0.487, and average cost efficiency was 0.310. Efficiency indices were also found for 18 soybean farms, representing 9 countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Ukraine, United States, Uruguay, and South Africa. Average technical efficiency was 0.533, average allocative efficiency was 0.553, and average cost efficiency was 0.340. Correlation analysis shows that seed input cost shares were the most correlated with cost efficiency for soybeans, while fixed capital cost shares were the most correlated with cost efficiency for corn production. OLS regression indicated that land, labor and other direct services were under-utilized for corn production, and that seed was over-utilized for soybean production.
    Keywords: corn, soybeans, efficiency, farm-level productivity, data envelopment analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, D24, Q12,
    Date: 2015–01
  12. By: Andrey Ivanov
    Abstract: In the public procurement legislation of the Russian Federation auctions are considered to be the primary procurement method. Having originally introduced live outcry auctions, the Russian authorities were forced to replace them with e-auctions due to many cases of collusion. However first results of applying of e-auctions unexpectedly revealed a significant reduction in the competition in the auctions. The paper argues that this reduction cannot be explained only by corruptive behavior of the mala fide contracting authority trying to limit the competition in the favor of the selected supplier for kickbacks. The paper treats the hypothesis of buyer’s quasi-corruptive behavior: the bona fide contracting authority is trying to limit the competition in the favor of the selected supplier too but for avoiding the risks which stems from the applying English auction for purchasing of the differentiated goods.
    Keywords: public procurement; corruption in auction; principal-agent model;efficient corruption; quasi-efficient corruption.
    Date: 2013–04
  13. By: Gurnain Pasricha; Matteo Falagiarda; Martin Bijsterbosch; Joshua Aizenman
    Abstract: This paper assesses the effects of capital controls in emerging market economies (EMEs) during 2001-2011, focusing on cross-country spillovers of changes in these controls. We use a novel dataset on weighted changes in capital controls (and currency-based measures) in 18 major EMEs. We first use panel VARs to test for effectiveness of own capital controls which take into account the endogeneity of such controls. Next, using near-VARs, we provide new evidence of multilateral effects of capital controls of the BRICS. Our results suggest a limited domestic impact of capital controls. Outflow easing measures do not have a significant impact on any of the variables in the model. Inflow tightening measures increase monetary policy autonomy (measured by the covered interest differential), but at the cost of a more appreciated exchange rate. These measures are therefore not effective in allowing EMEs to choose a trilemma configuration with a de-facto closed capital account, larger monetary policy autonomy and a weaker exchange rate. We do not find a clear difference between countries with extensive and long-standing capital controls (India and China) and other countries. Capital control actions in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) had significant spillovers to other EMEs during the 2000s in particular via exchange rates. Multilateral effects were more important among the BRICS than between the BRICS and other, smaller EMEs, particularly in the pre-global financial crisis period. They were more significant in the aftermath of the global financial crisis than before the crisis. This change stems in particular from the fact that spillovers from capital flow policies in BRICS countries to non-BRICS became more significant in the post-global financial crisis period. These results are robust to various specifications of our models.
    JEL: F32 F41 F42
    Date: 2015–01
  14. By: Afanasyev, Sergey
    Abstract: The analysis of meditation as a factor of an individual’s psychological and emotional well-being as well as the comparison of main emotional intelligence quantitative measurement methods and the justification of the method used in the study were performed. Main features of the migrants’ social-psychological adaptation were considered. The key role of interpersonal emotional intelligence competency in migrants’ social-psychological adaptation process was identified. The interrelation between meditation practice and dynamics of migrants’ emotional intelligence was found.
    Keywords: social – psychological adaptation, migrants, emotional intelligence, meditation, improvement, transcendental meditation, mindfulness meditation.
    JEL: J15
    Date: 2014–04
  15. By: Peter Boone
    Abstract: A quarter of a century after the transition to a capitalist economy began, how are the nations of the former Soviet bloc faring? Peter Boone charts the failures of communism, the chaos that followed its collapse, the period of liberalisation and growth - and today's unhealthy combination of economic stagnation and political repression.
    Keywords: economic history, Soviet Empire, economic reform, economic growth
    Date: 2015–01
  16. By: Bayram Balci (Centre d'études et de recherches internationales)
    Abstract: Fondée par Vladimir Poutine pour permettre à la Russie de retrouver une certaine grandeur sur la scène internationale et créer un nouveau pôle de puissance dans un monde multipolaire, l’Union économique eurasienne, qui est entrée en vigueur le 1er janvier 2015, est de loin le plus abouti de tous les projets intégrationnistes menés par Moscou depuis la fin de l’ère soviétique. Créée en 2010 comme une union douanière, elle rassemble la Russie, le Belarus et le Kazakhstan. A l’origine, l’Ukraine devait la rejoindre mais l’histoire a pris un tour différent et le rêve de Vladimir Poutine de voir Kiev adhérer à l’Union s’est brisé sur la place Maïdan il y a un an, remettant en cause le projet d’Union eurasienne. Ce dernier est loin d’être considéré avec enthousiasme par l’ensemble des Etats de l’ex-URSS. Ainsi, les pays d’Asie centrale se montrent réticents, voire hostiles, face à cette nouvelle union que leur propose – impose ? – Moscou.
    Date: 2015–01–06
  17. By: Muravyev, Alexander; Talavera, Oleksandr
    Abstract: We exploit a recent natural experiment in Ukraine’s school system to study how stricter requirements for proficiency in the state language affect linguistic minority students’ demand for education. The reform obligated linguistic minority students to take a standardized school exit test in Ukrainian, thus denying them access to translated versions of the test. We study the implications of this reform for students in schools with Hungarian and Romanian/Moldovan languages of instruction. Using school-level data and employing difference-in-difference estimation techniques, we find that the reform resulted in a decline in the number of subjects taken by minority students. They particularly withdrew from linguistically-demanding subjects such as History and Biology, taking more Math instead. Given the implications for minority students’ fields of future study, the reform may have affected their educational outcomes in a distortive way.
    Keywords: language policy, linguistic minorities, education, Ukraine
    JEL: I2 I28 J1 J15
    Date: 2015–01–12
  18. By: Savchenko, Taras; Kozmenko, Serhiy; Piontkovska, Yanina
    Abstract: The paper studies methodological approaches to the formation of monetary policy rules for the base interest rate of the National Bank of Ukraine demonstrating the expediency of their development on the basis of the spread-adjusted Tay- lor rule. It carries out the assessment of equilibrium values for the rule’s parameters by using a modified Hodrick- Prescott filter as well as the identification of the possible parameters of the monetary rule and the estimation of their coefficients through the development of multivariate regression models.
    Keywords: monetary policy rule, spread-adjusted Taylor rule, central bank, monetary market, inflation targeting
    JEL: E52 E58
    Date: 2014

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