nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2015‒01‒09
25 papers chosen by

  1. Rebalancing the EU-Russia-Ukraine gas relationship By Agata Loskot-Strachota; Georg Zachmann
  2. Performance assessment of innovation infrastructure facilities in Russia By Vera Barinova; Alla Sorokina
  3. New zoning Russia By Vladimir Gorbanyov
  4. Observed and unobserved regional determinants of FDI inflows: micro level analysis of the food industry firms in Russia By Anna Gladysheva; Tatiana Ratnikova
  5. Economic Consequences of the Ukraine Conflict By Peter Havlik
  6. EU, Russia and the reshaping of the post-Soviet economic space: an international trade analysis. By Maria Stella Chiaruttini
  7. Do Russian Firms Need ISO Certification for Exporting? By Victoria Golikova; Boris Kuznetsov
  8. Energy Efficiency in Russia : Untapped Reserves By International Finance Corporation; World Bank
  9. Possible Economic Outcomes of a Trade Agreement with the European Union By Alexander Knobel; Bekhan Chokaev
  10. Harmonization of national indicators for sustainable development of the administrative-territorial units with the requirements of the international community By Petr Burak; Tatiana Zvorykina
  11. Far Eastern Federal District Development: Statistical and Economic Overview By Jevgenijs Leontjevs; Inna Dovladbekova
  12. Transition and path-dependence in knowledge-intensive industry location: Case of Russian professional services By Denis Ivanov
  13. Видеоматериал с участием академика В.В.Ивантера в программе РИА НОВОСТИ: Круглый стол. Рубль. Курс на стабилизацию, 17 октября 2014 г By Ивантер В.В.
  14. The fiscal tools for regional support in the Russian Federation: the lines of improvement By Mikhail Milchakov
  15. Cross-border labour mobility: are East-West and East-East cross-border labour flows differ? By TIIU PAAS
  16. Social infrastructure and the level of population's life of the North region By Nadezda Polevshchikova
  17. Geographical labour mobility and cross-border labour movements between neighbouring countries By Tiiu Paas; Mart Kaska
  18. Institutions, Civil Society, Trust and Quality of Life: A Social Capital- And Social Identity-Based Approach. Evidence from the Russian Federation By Guido Sechi; Alexander Tatarko; Jurgis Skilters
  19. Learning Begets Learning: Adult Participation in Lifelong Education By OECD
  20. Energy Transition to Renewables: Problems By Yuri Yegorov
  21. Regional Inflation and Financial Dollarization By Brown, M.; de Haas, R.; Sokolov, V.
  22. Fewer but Better: Sudden Stops, Firm Entry, and Financial Selection By Sînâ T. Ateş; Felipe E. Saffie
  23. Causes of Growth in Transition Countries 1990-2012: Comparative Analysis By Čizmović, Mirjana; Popović, Milenko
  24. Research of pendular migration in the St. Petersburg?s agglomeration By Mikhail Petrovich; Leonid Losin; Lyudmila Istomina; Ilia Reznikov; Andrey Kostyuchenko
  25. Post-socialist urban development between polarisation an persistency. St. Petersburg in comparison to other selected post-socialist cities By Isolde Brade; Carola Neugebauer

  1. By: Agata Loskot-Strachota; Georg Zachmann
    Abstract: The October 2014 agreement on gas supplies between Russia, Ukraine and the European Union did not resolve the Ukraine-Russia conflict over gas. The differences between parties in terms of objectives, growing mistrust and legacy issues make it unlikely that a long-term stable arrangement will be achieved without further escalation. Without EU pressure and support, Ukraine is likely to enter a new unfavourable gas arrangement with Russia, which could have repercussions beyond the energy sector. Key highlights: To reduce prices and increase the security of imports, the EU as a bloc should redefine its gas relationship with Russia and Ukraine and overcome the diverging interests of EU member states on second-order issues.Implementation of a joint strategy rests on enforcement of EU competition and gas market rules, a strengthened role for the Energy Community and the establishment of a market-based instrument for supply security.For Ukraine, the EU should serve as an anchor for comprehensive gas sector reform. Contingent on Ukraineâ??s reform efforts, EU financial and technical assistance, the enabling of reverse flows from the EU to Ukraine and pressure on Gazprom, should eventually enable Ukraine to obtain a sustainable gas-supply contract with Russia. This should make a sustainable and mutually beneficial Russia-Ukraine-EU gas relationship possible. However, during the transition, the EU should be prepared for possible frictions.
    Date: 2014–12
  2. By: Vera Barinova; Alla Sorokina
    Abstract: Performance assessment of innovation infrastructure facilities might be seen as one of the most topical issues of regional development in Russia. Due to the variety of infrastructure types, it's difficult to select the assessment indicators, for there are no generally accepted and integrated performance assessment measures, based on verifiable data according to the enquiries of the stakeholders. The article discusses ways to evaluate the efficiency of innovation infrastructure facilities in Russia. We assume, that innovation infrastructure can't be analyzed apart from the national innovation system it. It follows, that innovation infrastructure facilities performance is fully determined by the regional innovation system and its development. The aim was to find the optimum number of innovation infrastructure facilities, depending on the regions' level of innovative development. The research was based on the Miiris database (gathered by the National monitoring centre for innovation and scientific infrastructure and regional innovation systems), updated and enlarged. The total number of objects analyzed is 1158, situated in 75 regions of the Russian Federation, typically referred to technology&production (the most widespread group), consulting, financial and informational support, human capital (education), sales. To assess the sufficiency level authors use statistical methods for analyzing the relationship between the level of regional innovative development (defined according to the AIRR rating 2012) and the number of the innovation infrastructure facilities in Russian regions. The analysis has showed that the higher the level of regional innovative development is, the more innovation infrastructure facilities the region has. According to these results, the regions of Russia were divided into four groups: strong innovators (11), average+, average (28), average-, poor innovators (9). The analysis has also showed the possibility of determining the relevant number of innovative infrastructure facilities for each level of regional innovative development (defined by the regional innovative development index). This number demonstrates nonlinear growth from "poor" to "strong" innovators, that shows the synergy of the innovation potential accumulation in the regional economy. The important practical output is that building additional innovation infrastructure facilities in regions, described as "poor innovators", average- and in some cases average innovators - is ineffective, for there will be no demand for their services. In addition, authors propose a set of measures to improve the performance of the innovation infrastructure facilities, including the greater "soft infrastructure" involvement (ICT-facilities, social, professional and organizational networks) as the main way to enhance the private sector role in the regional innovative development.
    Keywords: Russian regions; innovation infrastructure; innovative development; ranking; performance indicators
    Date: 2014–11
  3. By: Vladimir Gorbanyov
    Abstract: Russia has 11 economic regions - areas that differ from one another in their specialization, a special place in the geographical division of labor. However, the economic zoning of Russia, played a great role in the development of the economic potential of the USSR, largely out of date. Many regions were formed over 70 years ago, they did not contribute to the formation of new market structures, do not consider social and environmental features of the territory, and poor fit with natural boundaries. Federal districts also do not exactly correspond to any modern scientific criteria. So several different classification areas, taking into account both socio- economic and natural features of the area in terms of market reforms are suggested. Central region - historical, political, economic center of the country. It includes 27 subjects of the Russian Federation. North region actually coincides with the same area, which had existed previously . It consists of 5 subjects of the Federation. South region - the breadbasket of Russia, comprising 10 federal subjects. The North Caucasus region - the smallest and most multicultural area of Russia. Consists of 7 Federation subjects - 7 republics. Ural-Volga region - Russia 's oldest industrial area, linking the European and Asian parts of Russia, consists of 8 subjects of the Federation. Western Siberia region - an area of new development - the main oil-gas region of Russia, consisting of 8 subjects of the Federation. North Siberian region - also the area of new development, the main diamond mining area, consisting of five subjects of the Federation . South Siberian region - the most developed part of Siberia, gravitating to Transsibirian Railway; includes 8 of the Federation. Far Eastern region - yet it is the least developed regions, although thanks to a wide outlet to the Pacific Ocean, abundant natural resources contains great enormous potential. It consists of five subjects of the Federation. As a result, 9 natural-economic regions are proposed to allocate in Russia, which are accompanied by statistical data: area, population, natural and mechanical growth of population, gross regional product per capita, percentage of the population below the poverty line, the human development index, the structure employment.
    Keywords: Russia; phisical geography; economics; R1
    Date: 2014–11
  4. By: Anna Gladysheva; Tatiana Ratnikova
    Abstract: Observed and unobserved regional determinants of FDI inflows: micro level analysis of the food industry firms in Russia The development of Russian food industry is strategically important. Theoretically, the foreign capital inflow will help to renovate, modernize it and increase the productivity. But is it also interesting for foreign investors? What do foreign companies take into account when they invest in Russian food industry enterprises? Could it be special aspects of regional development (observed or unobserved) or only firm level data matters? Does the institutional environment in Russian regions significantly stimulate the inflow of foreign direct investment in Russian food industry enterprises or is the investor interested only in the size of a market? Two samples for 2009 and 2012 years of correspondingly about 5000 and about 7000 food industry companies of different subindustries from different Russian regions are analyzed to give the answer to these questions. The main idea of this investigation is to determine significant regional factors which effect the distribution of the FDI or to show that these items are not important for foreign investors. Russia has more than 80 regions and all of them are highly heterogeneous in terms of climate, geographical characteristics, level of economic and institutional development, industrial specialization, etc. Moreover, enterprises of different industries and subindustrues are different. In this research we take into account these facts investigating a hierarchical structure of the FDI distribution levels. This research consists of several parts: the theoretical part with hypotheses and the overview of the background and the empirical part with testing whether different regional characteristics like the infrastructure, taxation and the regulations in the region and in the neighboring ones play an important role. Spatial effects of these factors and of the economic development are also of our interest. The estimation of a multilevel binary model with spatial effects of analyzed factors gives the idea for the possible solution on the problem discovered above. The comparison of the results for two samples for different years and the investigation of dynamics also are taken into consideration. Keywords: foreign direct investment; food industry enterprises in Russia; Russian regions; multilevel binary model; spatial effects. JEL classification: C21; C25; D92; L66; O18; R12.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment; food industry enterprises in Russia; Russian regions; multilevel binary model; spatial effects. C21; C25; D92; L66; O18; R12.
    Date: 2014–11
  5. By: Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Summary The Ukraine conflict is having serious consequences not only for Russia and Ukraine, but it also potentially threatens to damage the still frail economic recovery in Europe. In Ukraine, which is the main victim of the conflict, the economy may decline by up to 8% this year. In Russia, the costs of the conflict are estimated to be in the tune of 1% of GDP in 2014-2016, primarily on account of increased investment risks. The effects on the individual EU countries differ depending on their exposure to the Russian market the Baltic States, Finland and several other new EU Member States are generally most affected. The impact on Austria is expected to be relatively modest. Austria is not overly exposed to the Russian market. For the EU as a whole, there are five industries where the share of Russia in total exports exceeds 3% textiles, pharmaceuticals, electrical equipment, machinery and transport equipment. On the assumption of a 10% loss in exports of goods and services to Russia, the estimated GDP loss would be about 0.4% for Lithuania and Estonia, and less than 0.1% for Austria. In absolute figures, Germany might lose around EUR 3 billion, followed by Italy (EUR 1.4 billion), France, Great Britain and Poland (EUR 0.8 billion each). Austria could lose close to EUR 300 million in this scenario. The estimated impact of Russia’s ban on agro-food imports from the EU imposed in August 2014 is expected to be the highest in the Baltics. These losses are undoubtedly painful, yet manageable (a trade decline bigger than 10% would obviously lead to greater losses). The question is whether these losses are justifiable and will achieve the desired effects – to change Russia’s behaviour in Ukraine and beyond.
    Keywords: sanctions, foreign trade, economic growth
    JEL: E61 F15 F51
    Date: 2014–11
  6. By: Maria Stella Chiaruttini
    Abstract: The last decades have witnessed the rise of a new wave of economic regionalism, the most remarkable example of which is the European Union. Regional economic integration is generally interpreted either as an attempt to resist the centrifugal forces of globalisation by strenghtening economic ties within a narrower area or as an intermediate step towards deeper integration at worldwide level. The ongoing evolution of the European Union makes it difficult to ascertain its real nature. At present, however, notwithstanding recent enlargements, the intra-EU trade share on total EU exchanges is declining while the dependence of the area on external markets, among which Russia, is increasing. The study of the economic and geopolitic relations between EU and Russia is rather intricate due to the overlapping of several scenarios. On the one hand there are the growing interconnections between EU and Russia which have led to envisage the creation of a Common Economic Space or even of a free trade zone, moving towards a pan-Eurasian economic block bridging the historic East-West divide. On the other hand there is the progressive penetration of the EU into the former Soviet space parallel to Russia's attempt to maintain its leading role in the East. From this perspective the EU may appear as a Western hegemon seeking to englobe an evergrowing periphery at the expense of a marginalised Russia. In this light the launching of the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia but especially the project of the Eurasian Economic Union would represent a Russia-inspired version of the EU in direct competition with the latter for the control of the post-Soviet space. Thus, instead of fading borders there would be two rival projects of regional integration. This interpretation is consistent with a view of regionalism as resistance not just to globalisation but specifically to EU's expansion. According to a different perspective, however, Eurasian integration might be seen as an intermediate stage alternative to an inclusion into the EU economic space. Leaving aside political considerations, the inclusion of a country into a regional block should be in principle motivated by a preexisting, although partial, de facto economic integration, to be furthered after formal accession. This contribution aims at providing an overview on the trade links between EU, Russia and the other transition economies, offering a background for the debate on the reshaping of the post-Soviet space. The questions to answer are: to what extent Russian and EU markets are interdependent; how far trade integration of the new accession countries inside the EU has progressed in comparison to that with Russia; and finally to which of the two regional blocks, the European or the Eurasian Economic Union, post-Soviet countries appear to be closer trade partners.
    Keywords: economic regionalism; European Union; post-Soviet states; transition economies
    JEL: F14 F15 P2
    Date: 2014–11
  7. By: Victoria Golikova; Boris Kuznetsov
    Abstract: We present some preliminary empirical results on impact of international certification on export behavior of Russian manufacturing firms. Our research is motivated, first, by the fact that little is known about the impact of ISO certification on the performance of Russian firms and, second, by unclear role of ISO certificate in week local institutional environment (where some firms simply buy these certificates without real audit and modernization of business processes). Russian medium and large enterprises in manufacturing are lagging far behind European peers both in terms of exporting activity and ISO certification level. We are trying to estimate the impact of international certification on the probability of a firm to be involved in foreign trade. We follow the general logic and methodology proposed in papers of Grajek (2004), Clougherty and Grajek (2008), Swann (2010), Otsuki (2011), Martincus et al. (2010), Masacure et al. (2009), Potoski and Prakash (2009). Empirical data comes from two rounds of nation-wide survey on the competitiveness of Russian manufacturing enterprises conducted in 2005 and 2009. We use a panel data from two rounds on approximately 500 firms in eight manufacturing industries. This gives us a unique opportunity to track the history of both availability of ISO certificate and exporting status of the firm. We use several different empirical models to examine the effect of certification on export activity and to control for possible endogeneity by estimating systems of simultaneous equations. We find evidence that ISO certification has a significant positive impact on probability of export if we control for self-selection effect for both export and ISO certification. Firms self-select for ISO by size and productivity as well as by being a supplier of a foreign-owned company in Russia. Then we compared two effects on export performance ? networking with foreign partners and ISO certification. We found out that while there is a direct positive impact of networking with foreign partners and certification on propensity to export, we were unable to find any significant impact of ISO certification on networking with foreign partners as a signal of "common language" that facilitate establishing partnership relations. We conclude that in the period analyzed these two institutions, both being important facilitators of exporting, worked individually.
    Keywords: ISO certification; export; manufacturing firms; Russia
    JEL: F14 L14 P23
    Date: 2014–11
  8. By: International Finance Corporation; World Bank
    Keywords: Environment - Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Climate Change Economics Energy - Energy Production and Transportation Energy - Energy and Environment Environment - Environment and Energy Efficiency
    Date: 2014–10
  9. By: Alexander Knobel (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Bekhan Chokaev (RANEPA)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the possible economic effects of Russia-EU free trade agreement, implying a mutual zero import tariffs in the trade of the Customs Union and the EU. Analysis of the effects is made using CGE Globe v1 model. We estimate the impact of an FTA on the economies, both at the level of the entire economy and at the industry level. The sensitivity analysis is made. It is shown that, in both relative and absolute terms, Russia potentially more benefits from the agreement than the EU. The cumulative gain of the CU is strictly positive, but the benefits and costs are unevenly distributed among its members, with negative effect for Belarus.
    Keywords: Customs Union, European Union, Free Trade Agreement, CGE
    JEL: C68 F15 F17
    Date: 2014
  10. By: Petr Burak; Tatiana Zvorykina
    Abstract: Russia's participation in global economic processes and joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) are aiming at harmonization of the quality of life indicators of the administrative-territorial units' population with the requirements of the international community. The need in the theoretical justification for the methods on establishing and evaluating of the quality of life indicators is recognized by all researchers of the territories sustainable development process. Currently there is no universally accepted integral index, both in Russia and abroad, which could be used to calculate the development of any economic system based on the sustainable development. At the initiative of the World Bank the task on scientific substantiation of the indicators for sustainable development of territories was entrusted to the Canadian specialists in the field of regional development. The above work has been completed and logically followed by the creation of a draft international standard 'Sustainable development of society - indicators on municipal services and quality of life' by the ISO/TC 268. The standard contains a set of various indicators allowing to establish the sustainable development indicators that can be presented in a clear and fairly simple way to a wide range of stakeholders providing information on the quality of accommodation at the relevant territory. Such information can serve as an objective measure on the competitiveness level of an administrative-territorial unit and a criterion for choosing it as an investment object. To assess the activities efficiency of executive and local self-governing authorities the President of the Russian Federation has issued decrees of August 21, 2012 ¹ 1199 and of October 14, 2012 ¹ 1384 on the relevant evaluation to be carried out. Statistic data prepared in accordance with the above decrees reflects absolute and relative indicators of socio-economic development and their dynamics in the national economy. However, the results of the above assessment cannot give a direct answer regarding the competitiveness of the administrative - territorial units and the quality of life. Given that Russia is a member of the WTO and carries out harmonization of its activities with those of the international community, there was a need in creation of a national technical committee on standardization in the field of sustainable development of the administrative-territorial formations. Such committee ? TC 115 "Sustainable development of administrative-territorial units' was created by Rosstandart on the initiative of the State Centre 'Test ? St. Petersburg' with the support of the regional authorities, scientific and public organizations.
    Keywords: indicators; administrative-territorial unit; sustainable development; competitiveness; quality of life;
    JEL: R1
    Date: 2014–11
  11. By: Jevgenijs Leontjevs; Inna Dovladbekova
    Abstract: The main aim of this paper is to define weak spots in the Far Eastern federal district's development in comparison with other federal districts in the Russian Federation based on a statistical and economic analysis, and shape general conclusions on possible improvement of the economic development of the region. Socio-economic disparities between regions are an important issue in many countries. Both state legislation's and governmental institutions' goal is to reduce or eliminate imbalance between regions by implementing regional development plans, creating funds and policies in order to ensure security, stability and prosperity. Regional economic growth and development encompasses multiple disciplines, including geography and planning, regional science, entrepreneurship, technology policy and economics. Bearing different regional development terms put forward by scientists and international organisations it can be pointed out that regional development policy has evolved over the last 50 years from simpler massive investment into infrastructure development to an understanding of region's unique features in order to uncover full potential of the region's competitive advantages by certain plans and policies. Understanding the region's socio-economic, geographical and cultural features is key for elicitation of regional competitive advantages and development policy proposition. Moreover, policy effectiveness assessment backed by a detailed analysis is crucial for new regional development policy proposition. It must be taken into account that despite significant investment projects, aid for growth and regional development some of the largest federal districts by area, in Russia, still fall behind other homeland regions in manufacturing, mining and quarrying, electricity, gas and water: the economic sectors that comprise a powerhouse of the national economy. The underdevelopment some of the largest federal districts of the Russian Federation, regional administrative management inefficiencies and failure to use development funds and programs to their full potential present severe development obstacles and socio economic threats in the future. Policy makers must assess the effectiveness of federal investments, financial aid, foreign investments and overall investment climate and identify major areas of improvement. Moreover, policy makers should work towards improvement of the existing regional strategy or develop a new regional development initiative that includes possible solutions for problematic issues. A new economic development initiative that provides funding for large scale manufacturing deployment projects that encourage economic growth and substitute imported machinery, equipment and vehicles in Far Eastern federal district must be development and implemented.
    Keywords: regional development; statistical analysis
    JEL: O11 O20
    Date: 2014–11
  12. By: Denis Ivanov
    Abstract: This paper searches for roots of current spatial pattern of professional services in location of Soviet-era R&D sector. The Soviet economy sponsored massive R&D oriented mainly on military purposes. Research was carried out in large institutions affiliated with academia or industry. After the collapse of socialism, military spending and related R&D decreased dramatically. Many researchers left Soviet-style institutions and succeed in the market economy. Did however this process mean anything for geography? Under the centrally planned economy, locational decisions were driven by non-market motives. Moreover, it was near-impossible for planners to anticipate which regions would be more promising under market. I focus on professional services since these industries do not rely on physical capital endowments, so sunk costs are unlikely to impose path-dependence. Professional services in Russia typically hire young educated persons which are expected to be mobile, so imperfect labor market is also unlikely to stick people to places ? unlike human capital externalities which are plausibly to do so. I regress employment in professional services in 2009-2011 by 76 Russian regions on the number of R&D staff in 1991. I consider three industries: architecture and engineering; information technology; accounting, auditing and management consulting. Controls to capture industry location fundamentals include modern-day gross regional product or overall employment, number of employees with university degree, number of R&D staff and urbanization. It should be noted that present-day number of R&D staff comprises primarily employees of state-owned Soviet-style institutions while professional service providers are typically up-to-date privately-owned firms. Results reveal that employment in Soviet R&D positively and significantly affects present-day employment in engineering and in IT. No such evidence is found for accounting, auditing and management consulting in which industries researchers' skills were less relevant. Results remains when shares in employment of professional services and R&D sector are plugged into regression instead of absolute numbers. I consider different explanations for this phenomenon. I attempt to track influence of 1991 R&D-related employment on current output-per-worker in IT and engineering and find positive correlation, although marginally significant. So, it is unlikely that Soviet-era pools of human capital created regional poverty traps due to low migration rates, and human capital externalities theory seems plausible. I also find that regions with greater number of R&D staff in 1991 now have greater number of SMEs both in business services and in the rest of economy, so entrepreneurship is a likely mechanism to impose path-dependence.
    JEL: N74 R12
    Date: 2014–11
  13. By: Ивантер В.В. (Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования)
    Date: 2014–11–05
  14. By: Mikhail Milchakov
    Abstract: The fiscal tools for regional support in the Russian Federation: the lines of improvement The Russian Federation features the significant socio-economic disparities among regions. That is why the federal support of regions in forms of different types of grants plays a very important role. The federal grants are allocated among regions on various purposes. For example, the Federal Fund for Financial Support of Regions (FFFSR) is used as an equalization tool. Federal government distribute grants in the form of "subsidy" which are used for co-financing regional expenditure functions in order to encourage the optimal provision of public services or to stimulate transformations in regional economy. The analysis of federal grants distribution practice shows the keen necessity of its improvement. In the area of the FFFSR usage it is possible to identify the following problems: a lot of regions (about 30 in 2014) have estimated fiscal capacity index after the FFFSR allocation that is less than the minimum level calculated in accordance with the Budget code and the methodology approved by Government Resolution No. 670 of November 22, 2004; the feature of the FFFSR contribution calculation when its amount in the following year cannot be less than the estimated amount fixed for a region on the planning period and the approach for stimulating regions with large increase in wage fund and profit tax (at the stage of calculating revenue capacity index for regions) distort the order of the FFFSR allocation on the fixed transparent need criteria. In the area of the "subsidies" usage it is possible to identify the following problems: a big number of narrow-targeted subsidies (more than 80 subsidies are allocated in 2014) which sometimes meet the same needs; late grants transferring from the federal level to regions during the fiscal year worsens the conditions for expenditure planning and reduces the effectiveness of subsidies usage on the side of regions; the lack of accountability for effective use of subsidies and meeting planned targets on the regional level. The problems of the FFFSR and subsidies allocation mentioned above are to be solved by implementing State programme «Measures for Effective and Responsible Management of Regional and Municipal Finances and Budget Stability of the Russian Regions» and by correcting the Regulations of projecting, provision and allocation of subsidies from the federal budget to the budgets of constituent entities of the Russian Federation (Government Resolution No. 392 of May 26, 2008).
    Keywords: subsidy; regional finances; fiscal capacity; transfer; grant
    Date: 2014–11
  15. By: TIIU PAAS
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to outline differences in the socio-demographic and employment characteristics of Estonian people who have worked in a neighbouring country ? Finland, Sweden, Latvia or Russia. The empirical part of this paper relies on data from CV Keskus ? an online employment portal bringing together jobseekers and vacant job posts. The results of our analysis show that different destination regions ? the wealthier countries of Finland and Sweden (referred to as East-West mobility) and Latvia and Russia (referred to as East-East mobility) have attracted workers with different personal and job-related characteristics. Ethnicity and higher education are important determinants in explaining differences between East-West and East-East labour flows. Non-Estonians and people with a higher education have been less likely to work in Finland or Sweden (East-West mobility).
    Keywords: international labour mobility; cross-border labour flows; East-West and East-East labour migration; Estonia
    JEL: J61 O57 R P52
    Date: 2014–11
  16. By: Nadezda Polevshchikova
    Abstract: Political, economic, social changes that take place nowarday and refflected in the dinamiks of territirial organization of the sociaty. The Republic of Karelia has a profitable economic and geographical position in one of the federal regions, Northwest federal region of Russia . The big amount of neighbors, good transport availability create beneficial prerequisites for development. Administrative formations ? "neighbors" are of different social-economic development. The peculiarities of the outer border which influence the development of the trans-border region are of special importance. Two basic factors play the significant role in the reform of socio-economic space of Karelia: (1) inner, aroused by socio-economic changes within the country and (2) outer, forming out under the influence of the processes taking place in other countries. These factors make the changes vivid in different levels: spatial, of a branch of industry, organizational, ownership level, socio-cultural and educational levels. Level and speed of reforms depend on many reasons including the possibilities to set up and implement different forms of cooperation as well as attitude of the administration towards trans-border cooperation. Under their influence there are changes is both 'the quality' and the 'quantity' of services of social infrastructure. The areal level the following processes take place: the polarization of the level and the quality of services between "centre" and "periphery" of different territorial levels; -between territories having profitable geographical location and other inner territories; -between urban and rural areas, culture and science; that reduced the "quality" of services. Permanent innovation activity creates favorable conditions for its further development within the limits of the nucleus, generating attendant conditions, including service conditions. The activization of private undertaking, market regulating mechanisms accelerated centripetal movement of the capital, directed at the development of social infrastructure of Karelia. The objects of social infrastructure are created at places where the biggest profit can be attained in the short time. As a result, shops, hotels, ets. are built in the capital. In regional centers - fewer shops, hotels, etc. are built. And rural area loses the existing objects; almost nothing is built, except private houses. More qualitative services are traditionally given in towns. Services gradually "leave" rural areas ? many objects of social infrastructure are closed. The lack of budget assignations sharpened the problems of material-technical provision of state institutions of education, health service. Social infrastructure of Republic Karelia is undergoing the stage of reforming. While negative processes dominate in rural areals, positive tendencies of innovations exist, though they still have a hearth character.
    Keywords: R 19 Urban; rural; regional; border region; north region; social infrastructure; social-economic transformation
    Date: 2014–11
  17. By: Tiiu Paas (University of Tartu); Mart Kaska (University of Tartu, Estonia)
    Abstract: The paper focuses on examining cross-border labour mobility between the neighbouring countries looking for the answer to the question whether cross-border labour mobility can pursue win-win expectations of increasing international labour movement after the EU eastward enlargement. The aim of the paper is to outline differences in the socio-demographic and employment characteristics of Estonian people who have worked in a neighbouring country – Finland and Sweden (East-West mobility) and Latvia or Russia (East-East mobility). The results of the study show that the possible consequences of cross-border labour mobility are twofold. Cross-border labour mobility can support economic development of both source and target country but also generate some threats of brain waste taking into account the sharp increase of lower-skilled jobs of people who are working in economically well-developed neighbouring countries.
    Keywords: geographic labour mobility, neighbouring countries, cross-country labour flows, East-West and East-East mobility, Estonia
    JEL: J61 O57 R23 P52
    Date: 2014–11
  18. By: Guido Sechi; Alexander Tatarko; Jurgis Skilters
    Abstract: Many scholars, since the early 2000s, advocate for the integration of institutionalist and communitarian views of social capital generation in order to explain civil society dynamics, in particular in countries ? such as former communist states - characterized by transitional processes, with a relevant impact on the structure of societies, and by peculiar features of social networking. According to such a view, the civil society is the resultant of a combination of factors related to the social structure of the social community and the institutional environment, and the ways in which such levels interact. This view is, in a broader sense, an attempt at investigating in a more effective way the way in which social assets in society are generated, and their relation with socio-economic and sustainable development. However, attempted empirical analysis on the basis of such an approach have been mainly carried out at macro level, this way overlooking, to a large extent, the individual determinants of social capital and civic engagement, and the interplay of perceptions of community and institutions and social attitudes. The present paper is an attempt at conciliating the institutionalist and communitarian frameworks through a micro level-focused model, able to investigate the linkage between institutional climate and civic engagement and trust with the support of social psychology theories (in particular, social identity theory). In detail, the proposed approach emphasizes the linkages existing between perceptions of institutional behaviour and civil society empowerment on the one hand, and individual engagement and trust in the society and civil identity on the other; it also focuses on the way in which perceptions and attitudes are related to quality of life (measured in terms of well-being and job-related satisfaction). The analysis is based on over 2000 observations from two macrodistricts of the Russian Federation (Central and North Caucasus okrugs) and over 1000 from the Republic of Latvia. The proposed model investigates the possible causal chain existing between perceptions of civil society empowerment, trust towards institutions, civic engagement, trust and tolerance in the society, and quality of life perception, through a structural equation modelling-based quantitative approach for ordinal variables. Socio-demographic and socio-cultural features (e.g. ethno-religious self-identification, level of education, political affiliation, profession) are accounted for as control variables.
    JEL: Z10 B52 D83 C01
    Date: 2014–11
  19. By: OECD
    Abstract: <ul> <li> In Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden, participation rates in adult education and learning are over 60%, but they are one-third – or below – in Italy, the Russian Federation and the Slovak Republic. </li> <li> The more highly educated adults are, the more likely they are to continue with adult education and learning: about 70% of adults with a tertiary qualification participated, compared with just 27% among adults who did not complete upper secondary education. </li> <li> Employed adults are more likely to participate in adult education and learning: in half of the countries, the difference in participation between employed and unemployed individuals is more than 15 percentage points. </li> <li> Motivation encourages participation in adult education and learning: countries where a significant proportion of adults express a desire for more education also show the highest levels of participation. </li></ul>
    Date: 2014–11
  20. By: Yuri Yegorov
    Abstract: What will come first ? non-acceptable global warming or extinction of oil reserves? Both processes can bring substantial costs to the mankind, but their order has important economic implications. The answer to this question will either lower oil price in the long run or will lead to its further rise. It is very important for Russian economy. From the global perspective, both dangers should be taken into account, and transition to renewable energies is the only remedy for both. However, the optimal speed of this transition depends on temporal dynamics of both threats that is highly uncertain at this moment. The goal of this paper is to review the problems with different renewable energies and to outlay different scenarios for the timing of major impact from global warming and oil peak. The problems with renewable energies have mostly economic origin. The global resources of hydropower are limited. While wind is already cheap, it should be balanced due to stochastic supply. Solar energy also needs to be balanced and is still relatively expensive. Oil products and their liquid renewable substitutes (biofuels) will thus remain an important compliment to electricity in the long run. However, biofuels are competing with agriculture for land, and thus can replace only a limited fraction of energy. The first signs of global warming bring the costs today and it comes as increased frequency of extreme weather phenomena (hurricanes, floods, etc). The rate of temperature increase has some range of uncertainty but it generally accepted that +2 degrees is an acceptable limit, and it might come in the middle of the 21st century. One of the policies to deal with it is not to extract all fossil fuels from the ground. However, it is highly likely that all oil will be extracted before global warming will have severe consequences. Since only biofuels can substitute oil in transport, given the current trend in transportation, peak oil can cause too much demand for biofuels, that will be dangerous for food security. Both the price of oil and biofuels would rise to such level, that current level of transportation will be impossible. This can cause resettlement of people to smaller cities. It is possible to conclude that while renewable energies represent a remedy, full transition will not be easy.
    Keywords: renewable energies; transition; problems; global warming; peak oil
    JEL: Q31 Q42 Q54
    Date: 2014–11
  21. By: Brown, M. (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); de Haas, R. (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Sokolov, V.
    Abstract: Abstract: We exploit variation in consumer price inflation across 71 Russian regions to examine the relationship between the perceived stability of the local currency and financial dollarization. Our results show that regions with higher inflation experience an increase in the dollarization of household deposits and a decrease in the dollarization of (long-term) household credit. The negative impact of inflation on credit dollarization is weaker in regions with less-integrated banking markets, suggesting that the asset-liability management of banks constrains the currency-portfolio choices of households.
    Keywords: Financial dollarization; financial integration; regional inflation
    JEL: E31 E42 E44 F36 G21 P22 P24
    Date: 2013
  22. By: Sînâ T. Ateş (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania); Felipe E. Saffie (Department of Economics, University of Maryland)
    Abstract: We combine the real business cycle small open economy framework with the endogenous growth literature to study the productivity cost of a sudden stop. In this economy, productivity growth is determined by successful implementation of business ideas, yet the quality of ideas is heterogeneous and good ideas are scarce. A representative financial intermediary screens and selects the most promising ideas, which gives rise to a trade-off between mass (quantity) and composition (quality) in the entrant cohort. Chilean plant-level data from the sudden stop triggered by the Russian sovereign default in 1998 confirms the main mechanism of the model, as firms born during the credit shortage are fewer, but better. A calibrated version of the economy shows the importance of accounting for heterogeneity and selection, as otherwise the permanent loss of output generated by the forgone entrants doubles, which increases the welfare cost by 30%.
    Keywords: Financial Selection, Sudden Stop, Endogenous Growth, Firm Entry, Firm Heterogeneity
    JEL: F40 F41 F43 O11 O16
    Date: 2014–11–17
  23. By: Čizmović, Mirjana; Popović, Milenko
    Abstract: This paper provides comparative analysis of the proximate causes of growth of South East European, Central European and Former Soviet Union countries. The first section covers comparative sources of growth analysis for GDP. Apart from this conventional sources-of-growth analysis, both the demand and the industry side decomposition of the GDP growth rate, is given in second section of the paper. In the demand side of the sources-of-growth analysis, special attention is devoted to the issue of the level of capital account liberalisation and its influence on the growth anatomy. Connected with this is the issue of industry / sectors side sources-of-growth analysis. The third section covers comparative source-of-growth analysis for GDP per capita as an approximation of growth of standard of living. The results of the above mentioned different sources-of-growth approaches present a good basis for further research of fundamental causes of growth of these countries.
    Keywords: Causes of Growth,Proximate causes,Fundamental causes,Convergence
    JEL: O47 O52
    Date: 2014–09
  24. By: Mikhail Petrovich; Leonid Losin; Lyudmila Istomina; Ilia Reznikov; Andrey Kostyuchenko
    Abstract: The population of the Petersburg's city agglomeration on January 1, 2012 was about 5,9 million people, the territory area -- 11,6 thousand km ². The borders, spatial and structural features of the Petersburg's city agglomeration are defined by JSC "Peterburgsky NIPIGrad" within works on justification of the design solutions of St. Petersburg Master plan 2005 As the core of the Petersburg's agglomeration, the central part of the city St. Petersburg with a very high building density was defined (the total area of 65 thousand hectares, about 50% of the whole city territory), including the historical center, industrial belt, regions of an industrial housing estate. For agglomerations considerable scales of pendular migrations are typical, thus it is considered that not fewer than 90-95% of daily trips with the labor, business, educational and cultural and community purposes are made within external borders of the agglomeration. The zone of intensive recreational cyclic migrations usually also doesn't go beyond external borders of the city agglomeration, but the share of all the number of such trips within these borders is usually smaller, than in case of labor trips : 75?80%. When studying the ways of participants movement, one of the tools of the measurement of pendular migration volumes is the registration of the passenger traffic and the vehicles streams on the border of the agglomeration core. The registration results can be also used while creating a mathematical model describing the formation and distribution of the streams in the agglomeration transport network. The authors of the present article used the materials of the passenger traffic research on the different means of transport conducted for the Leningrad administration in 1987 and also the materials of the research completed by JSC "Peterburgsky NIPIGrad" together with St. Petersburg Means of communication State University in 2003 and 2011. The total passenger traffic on all entrances to the Petersburg's agglomeration core during three hours in the morning period of the working day peak loadings was in 2011 about 169 thousand people, which was 18% more, than in 2003 and 43% more, than in 1987. The exit stream also increased and became about 97 thousand passengers which was 37% more than in 2003 and 11% more than in 1987. It should be noted that the increase in the number of the resident population couldn't affect the increase in the volumes of passengers transportation between the agglomeration core and surrounding settlements. This indicator just now is starting to reach the level of 1987. Probably, the growth of passengers transportation volume is connected with an increase in the general population mobility and with a change in the difference of migratory capacities of St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region.
    Keywords: agglomeration; pendular migration; traffic; transport; mobility
    Date: 2014–11
  25. By: Isolde Brade; Carola Neugebauer
    Abstract: ERSA abstract St. Petersburg Post-socialist urban development between polarisation an persistency. St. Petersburg in comparison to other selected post-socialist cities Abstract The change in societal system since the 1990s has been shaping the city regions in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The urban social space has transformed as well, reflecting changed local housing markets and qualities, new housing preferences and increased residential mobilities among city dwellers. So more than 20 years of societal transformation, distinct socio-spatial development trends have emerged, new processes loom, and the contexts and factors determining these developments are becoming evident. The presentation demonstrates the gained insights by primary, comparative case study research which was carried out in the CEE urban regions of Leipzig, Budapest, Vilnius, Sofia and St. Petersburg. The focus lies on the development in St Petersburg in comparison to the other case studies. The authors reveal on the one hand similar trends of socio-spatial development in CEE urban regions. On the other hand, the authors argue for differentiated patterns of socio-spatial developments in the city regions after 1990, which reflect the different paths of post-socialist urban development ? paths that are based on the hybrid eclipsing and diverse forms of socialist and transformative legacy as well as transnational influence.
    Keywords: social-spatial differentiation; post-socialist city; polarisation; housing
    Date: 2014–11

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NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.