nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2014‒12‒13
five papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Economic development as major determinant of Olympic medal wins: predicting performances of Russian and Chinese teams at Sochi Games By Wladimir Andreff
  2. GLOMO - Global Mobility Model: Beschreibung und Ergebnisse By Kühn, André; Novinsky, Patrick; Schade, Wolfgang
  3. Sometimes, Winners Lose: Economic Disparity and Indigenization in Kazakhstan By Gang, Ira N.; Schmillen, Achim
  5. Pourquoi les Jeux de Sotchi seront plus coûteux que prévu By Wladimir Andreff

  1. By: Wladimir Andreff (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne)
    Abstract: Econometric modelling of Winter Olympic Games to explain sporting outcomes with economic variables, then predicting the medal distribution at the next Games, Sochi 2014.
    Keywords: sports economics, sporting outcome, prediction, modelling, Winter Olympic Games
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Kühn, André; Novinsky, Patrick; Schade, Wolfgang
    Abstract: The development of both, emerging markets as well as the already establish markets (USA, Japan, Europe), is highly relevant for future success of the export-oriented German automotive industry. This paper describes the so called Global Mobility Model (GLOMO) based on the system dynamics approach, which simulates the future development of car sales by segment and drive technology. The modularized model contains population, income and GDP development in order to describe the framework in the most important markets (USA, Japan, EU, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). According to the changes in framework conditions within these countries, worldwide car sales will nearly double up to 2030 (120 Mio. cars a year), with the most dynamic development in the Chinese market. The simulation results also show that - depending on the chosen scenario - a 40 %- share of alternative drive technologies within the worldwide car sales in 2030 seems to be possible.
    Date: 2014
  3. By: Gang, Ira N. (Rutgers University); Schmillen, Achim (World Bank)
    Abstract: Several post-Soviet states have introduced policies to improve the relative economic, political or social position of formerly disadvantaged populations. Using one example of such policies – "Kazakhisation" in Kazakhstan – we investigate their impact on the comparative earnings of two directly affected groups, ethnic Russians and ethnic Kazakhs. Oaxaca decompositions show that Kazakhs are better endowed with income generating characteristics but receive lower returns to these characteristics than Russians. The second effect dominates and Kazakhs have comparatively lower average living standards. While "Kazakhisation" may have been successful in a narrow sense – i.e., by empowering Kazakhs to take on leading positions in the public sector – more broadly it has been a self-defeating policy as it has pushed ethnic Russians into jobs that often evolved into positions that (at least in monetary terms) are superior now to those held by Kazakhs.
    Keywords: ethnicity, decomposition, indigenization, Kazakhstan
    JEL: I32 O12 J15
    Date: 2014–09
  4. By: Popov, Vladimir
    Abstract: В последние 10 лет Узбекистан развивался очень успешно – рост ВВП в среднем на 8%, низкий государственный и внешний долг, заниженный валютный курс, равномерное распределение доходов, создание с нуля конкурентоспособной автопромышленности, ориентированной на экспорт. Задача на будущее – не допустить «головокружения от успехов», предусмотреть возможные риски и быть готовым принять адекватные меры. Рассматриваются два неблагоприятных шока – снижение цен на главные экспортные товары (золото, хлопок, газ) и замедление темпов роста совокупной факторной производительности, а также возможные ответные меры правительства. Обсуждается текущая промышленная политика – поддержка наряду с автомобильной промышленностью отраслей тяжелой химии (производство синтетического топлива и полипропиленовых изделий из газа) с относительно низким уровнем совокупной факторной производительности и темпами ее роста. ============================================================ Uzbekistan in recent 10 years is an extremely successful economy – high growth (8%), low domestic and international debt, undervalued exchange rate, relatively even distribution of income, creation from scratch competitive export oriented auto industry. It is important though to avoid “dizziness from success” and to envisage possible growth traps in the future. This paper discusses two unfavourable scenarios – negative terms of trade shock due to the decline in cotton, gas and gold prices (a deterioration of the current account balance by 10 p.p. of GDP) and a decline in growth rates of total factor productivity (TFP), as well as possible government responses to these shocks, in particular, changes in industrial policy. In recent years Uzbekistan promotes heavy chemistry industries (production of synthetic fuel and polypropylene goods from natural gas). This is the next stage of industrial policy after reaching food and energy self-sufficiency and successful auto industry development. There are reservations, however, against this strategy. First, gas production is about to decline due to depletion of reserves. Second, the level and growth rates of TFP in heavy chemistry are by far not the highest (they are the highest in light and food industry and in machine building). The increased share of heavy chemistry in total industrial output will cause the decline in the level and the growth rates of TFP. Third, auto industry is already a success, it may be reasonable to continue to support machine building industries of medium level of technology sophistication, like auto industry. For the country of the average size, export specialization in two major areas (autos and heavy chemistry) may be excessive.
    Keywords: Uzbekistan, scenarios of economic development in 2015-30,industrial policy, reaction to shocks, terms of trade, total factor productivity
    JEL: E60 F43 O40 O47 O53
    Date: 2014–05–05
  5. By: Wladimir Andreff (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne)
    Abstract: La comparaison des coûts ex ante (annoncés) et des coûts ex post (réalisés) sur l'échantillon de tous les Jeux Olympiques vérifie l'existence d'une 'winner's curse' (malédiction du gagnant de l'enchère) qui explique le dépassement systématique des coûts. Sotchi 2014 n'y échappera pas.
    Keywords: dépassement des coûts; malédiction du gagnant de l'enchère; économie du sport
    Date: 2013

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