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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2014‒11‒22
eight papers chosen by |
| By: | Ketenci, Natalya |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the level of capital mobility in Russia, testing the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle proposed by Feldstein and Horioka (1980). The study examines relations between saving and investment flows in Russia in the presence of structural breaks. It employs the quarterly data for the period 1995-2013, where all estimations are made for two periods, the full period 1995-2013, and 2000-2013, the post Russian crisis period. The empirical analysis includes the Kejriwal and Perron (2008, 2010) structural break test to determine the presence of structural breaks in series and to estimate the saving-retention coefficient under the consideration of structural shifts. To allow for comparison, the parameters of the model were estimated employing the OLS and FMOLS procedures. To test the cointegration relationships between investment and saving flows of Russia, three different cointegration tests were applied to the data. First applied was the Gregory and Hansen (1996) cointegration test, which allows for one structural shift; then, in a case where two breaks were detected, the Hatemi-J (2008) cointegration test was employed. Finally, for a case where more than two breaks are detected, the Maki (2012) cointegration test, which allows for an unknown number of breaks, was applied. The results of this study provide evidence of high capital mobility and reject the existence of the FHP in the post-Russian crisis period. However, failure to reject the hypothesis of no cointegration by all employed cointegration tests denies the solvency of a current account of Russia. |
| Keywords: | Feldstein-Horioka puzzle, saving-investment association, capital mobility, cointegration, structural breaks, Russia. |
| JEL: | F32 |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:59013&r=cis |
| By: | Juraev, Nosirjon |
| Abstract: | The following paper aims to contribute the existing literature on Russian tobacco use by analysing the determinants of smoking, and comparing the results to previous researches. We are also one of the few, if not the first to test the significance of BMI (Body Mass Index) with smoking habits. Our results mostly compromise with the results of previous English literature. Smokers generally tend to lose weight, and obese people naturally do not practice smoking. Educated people, religion believer smoke significantly less than school leavers, nonbelievers and army servers do. |
| Keywords: | Tobacco determinants, Russia |
| JEL: | D00 |
| Date: | 2014–03–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:59065&r=cis |
| By: | Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås; Massimo Geloso Grosso; Frédéric Gonzales; Iza Lejárraga; Molly Lesher; Sébastien Miroudot; Asako Ueno; Dorothée Rouzet |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the services trade restrictiveness indices (STRIs) for telecommunications. The STRIs are composite indices taking values between zero and one, zero representing an open market and one a market completely closed to foreign services providers. The indices are calculated for 40 countries, the 34 OECD members and Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa. The STRIs capture de jure restrictions. This report presents the first vintage of indicators for telecommunications and captures regulations in force in 2013. The scores range between 0.06 and 0.61, with a sample average of 0.22. Barriers to competition, reflecting inadequate regulation of incumbents with significant market power, and state ownership in some countries make the largest contribution to the index value, followed by restrictions on foreign entry. The paper presents the list of measures included in the indices, the scoring and weighting system for calculating the indices and an analysis of the results. |
| Keywords: | telecommunications, services trade, services trade restrictions, regulation |
| JEL: | F13 F14 K33 L96 |
| Date: | 2014–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:172-en&r=cis |
| By: | Coleman, Stephen |
| Abstract: | The Russian political party system has developed through a tumultuous era, progressing from extreme fragmentation to a smaller, more stable number of parties. Much of this change was engineered by elites and especially by President Putin, leading to the question of whether the result is a normal party system by traditional Western standards or just a tool of the government. By means of a predictive mathematical model, the analysis shows that the party system indeed has grown strong popular roots with a great impact on the overall distribution of votes among the parties. This is caused by the pervasive but unconscious effect of social conformity on voters. |
| Keywords: | Russia; political parties; voting; mathematical model; social conformity; unconscious behavior |
| JEL: | C1 C51 D72 D87 P3 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:59038&r=cis |
| By: | Kuzyaeva, Anastasia; Didenko, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Over the last decades, much attention has been drawn to the question of productivity variation across countries. The differences in cross-country productivity could be explained by both foreign and domestic innovation. In order to estimate the influence of the former, the international transfer of technology should be considered. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade are suggested to be major conduits of international technology transfer. The present paper aims to extend the current empirical literature by determining the effect and the source of productivity spillover in Russia on the example of chemical industry. In order to find out the existence of FDI and international trade productivity spillover we applied the methodology developed by Ericson and Pakes (1995) and Olley and Pakes (1996). The econometric model was tested on the companies from chemical industry for the period 2007-2012. The empirical results show that FDI and international trade productivity spillovers are present in Russian chemical industry. The size of FDI spillovers is economically more important than imports-related spillovers. Based on the empirical results, we may predict that Russian accession to the World Trade Organization in 2012 should result in productivity growth. However, further research on this topic will be possible when the statistical data is available for several years after annexation. |
| Keywords: | FDI, chemical industry, technology transfer, productivity spillover, international trade |
| JEL: | D24 F13 L65 |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:59349&r=cis |
| By: | Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås; Iza Lejárraga; Sébastien Miroudot; Frederic Gonzales; Massimo Geloso Grosso; Dorothée Rouzet; Asako Ueno |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the services trade restrictiveness indices (STRIs) for motion pictures, television and broadcasting and sound recording. The STRIs are composite indices taking values between zero and one, zero representing an open market and one a market completely closed to foreign services providers. The indices are calculated for 40 countries, the 34 OECD members and Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa. The STRIs capture de jure restrictions. This report presents the first vintage of indicators for audio-visual services and captures regulations in force in 2013. The scores range between 0.06 and 0.72 for motion pictures, 0.07 to 0.78 for television and broadcasting, and between 0.05 and 0.37 for sound recording. The sample averages are 0.18 for motion pictures, 0.28 for television and broadcasting and 0.16 for sound recording. Limitations on foreign entry, including foreign equity limits contribute to about two thirds of the index values in television and broadcasting. In motion pictures screen quotas contribute to the indices in many of the countries with scores above average. Sound recording, i.e. music, is the most open of the three audio-visual services sectors where limitations on movement of people account for more than 40% of the index value. The paper presents the list of measures included in the indices, the scoring and weighting system for calculating the indices and an analysis of the results. |
| Keywords: | services trade, copyrights, motion pictures, sound recording, services trade restrictions, regulation, television broadcasting |
| JEL: | F13 F14 K33 L82 |
| Date: | 2014–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:174-en&r=cis |
| By: | Didenko, Alexander |
| Abstract: | We focus on assessing RES- and energy-efficiency promoting policy mixes for Russia from multicriteria perspective with emphasis on GHG emission reduction. We start from two surveys: the first one studies country’s energy saving and RES potential to determine possible range of outcomes for policy mixes in question; the second one reviews corpus of relevant official documents to formulate policy alternatives, which the policymakers are facing. Our findings are then blended with forecasts of government and international agencies to obtain three scenarios, describing possible joint paths of development for Russian energy sector in the context of demographic, economic and climatic trends, as well as regulatory impact from three policy portfolios, for period from 2010 (baseline year) till 2050. Scenarios are modeled in Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) environment, and the output in the form of GHG emissions projections for 2010-2050 is obtained. We then assess three policy portfolios with multi-criteria climate change policies evaluation method AMS. Our analysis suggests that optimistic scenario is most environmentally friendly, pessimistic one is easier to implement, and business-as-usual balances interests of all stakeholders in charge. This might be interpreted as an evidence of lack of governmental regulation and motivation to intervene in energy sector to make it greener and more sustainable. |
| Keywords: | regulatory impact assessment, multi-criteria evaluation, MCDA, AMS, MAUT, SMART, long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP), climate policy, climate change, energy policy, mitigation/adaptation, RES promotion, energy efficiency, GHG emissions. |
| JEL: | Z00 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:59350&r=cis |
| By: | Simone Tagliapietra (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)) |
| Abstract: | Over the last two decades energy has emerged as an increasingly important component of the overall EU-Turkey relations. In particular, the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) and its flagship project, Nabucco, soon became the pivotal element of the EU-Turkey energy relations. After years of strong cooperation, the failure of Nabucco and the emergence of TANAP have ultimately outlined a divergence in the way the EU and Turkey perceive not only the SGC but also their energy relations. This divergence represents a serious risk for the strategic interests of both the EU and Turkey, and for this reason there is a need to rethink the EU-Turkey energy relations. This need is now particularly urgent, as the market and political environment on which Nabucco was conceptualized is rapidly changing, potentially opening up new opportunities of energy cooperation for the EU and Turkey. On the supply side, new major gas reserves have been discovered in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) and in offshore Israel, while on the demand side the unprecedented political standoff between the Western world and Russia resulted by the 2014 Ukraine crisis might reinvigorate the EU’s quest to diversify its gas supply portfolio. These developments can potentially converge to reshape the EU-Turkey energy relations. In fact, in this scenario the SGC could eventually gain a new momentum, with the gas reserves of the KRI and Israel as primary target. However, after the failure of Nabucco the unconditional support of Turkey should not be taken for granted by the EU, as the country might prefer to secure its own energy supply on a bilateral basis with gas producing countries. In order to avoid the risk of a further fragmentation of the SGC, a new “EU-Turkey Natural Gas Initiative” -such as the one proposed in this paper- seems to be urgently needed, for the benefit of both the EU and Turkey. |
| Keywords: | EU-Turkey Energy Relations, EU Energy Security, Southern Gas Corridor |
| JEL: | Q40 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2014.75&r=cis |