nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2014‒09‒05
nine papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Possible Economic Effects of CU—EU Free Trade Agreement By Bekkhan Chokaev; Aleksandr Knobel
  2. "To what extent stock returns are driven by mean and volatility spillovers effect (EU, US&OIL)"? By Abdulla Alikhanov
  3. Программно-целевые методы регулирования развития регионов для обеспечения устойчивого развития страны By Nadjiba Hajiyeva
  4. Azerbaijan: a strategic actor in the regional energy chessboard By Fabio Indeo
  5. Assessment of Institutional Quality in Resource Rich Caspian Basin Countries By Jeyhun Mammadov; Assoc. Prof. Dr. Jeyhun Mammadov; Prof. Dr. Ingilab Ahmadov; PhD candidate, Kenan Aslanli
  7. A Research of the trades of multi-country-section carbon emissions and energy uses under the drive of the process-technology progress By Zheng Wang; GU Gaoxiang
  8. The Optimal Tariff in the Presence of Trade-Induced Productivity Gains By Michael Hübler; Frank Pothen
  9. Development inclinations of the human potential in the CIS countries By Qanimat Safarov

  1. By: Bekkhan Chokaev; Aleksandr Knobel
    Abstract: This paper investigates the possible economic effects of free trade agreement, implying a mutual zero import tariffs in the trade between the Customs Union (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan) and the European Union. Analysis of the effects is made using CGE model.We estimate the impact of an FTA on the economies, both at the level of the entire economy and at the industry level. The sensitivity analysis is made. It is shown that, in both relative and absolute terms, Russia potentially benefits from the agreement more than the EU. The cumulative gain of the CU is strictly positive, but the benefits and costs are unevenly distributed among its members.
    Keywords: Russia, General equilibrium modeling, Trade issues
    Date: 2014–07–03
  2. By: Abdulla Alikhanov
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to examine the mean and volatility spillovers effects from a global factor US (GF US) stock market, regional factor Europe (RF EU) stock market and as the world factor oil price (WF Oil) changes on the eight European emerging and developing countries from September 2000 until March 2012. The countries examined are: Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey, and the Ukraine. The mean and volatility spillover effects across financial markets are explored by applying the GJR-GARCH model introduced by Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle in 1993. Eventually, the calculated variance ratios will allow us to quantitatively analyze the proportion of volatility spillovers from various sources. Additionally, by excluding the oil spillover effects, the paper also examines the size and effect of spillover effects from two markets only: Europe and the US. The generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) process is recognized model for analysis of volatility and return spillovers amongst international financial markets. The main econometric specification, namely AR(1)-GJR-GARCH allows to test spillover effects and investigate how much conditional variance individual country j has been explained respectively by Global Factor US (GF US), Regional Factor EU (RF EU), local factor (own market of country j) as well as the World Factor Oil Price (WF Oil). The study finds strong indication of volatility spillover effects from the US-global, EU-regional, and the world factor oil towards individual stock markets. While both mean and volatility spillover transmissions from the US are found to be significant, EU mean spillover effects are negligible. To evaluate the magnitude of volatility spillovers, the variance ratios are also computed and the results draw to attention that the individual emerging countries’ stock returns are mostly influenced by the U.S volatility spillovers rather than EU or oil markets. Additionally, examination of only global and regional stock markets spillover transmissions into European stock markets also confirms the dominating presence of the U.S spillover transmissions. Furthermore, I also implement asymmetric tests on stock returns of eight markets. The stock market returns of Hungary, Poland, Russia and the Ukraine are found to respond asymmetrically to negative and positive shocks in the US stock returns. The weak evidence of asymmetric effects with respect to oil market shocks is found only in the case of Russia and the quantified variance ratios indicate that presence of oil market shocks are relatively higher for Russia. Moreover, a model with dummy variable confirms the effect of European Union enlargement on stock returns only for Romania. Finally, a conditional model suggests that the spillover effects are partially explained by instrumental macroeconomic variables, out of which exchange rate fluctuations play the key role in explaining the spillover parameters rather than total trade to GDP ratios in most investigated countries.
    Keywords: EU, USA, Turkey,Russia, Czech Republic,HUngary, Poland, Ukraine, Croatia, Romania., Energy, Monetary issues
    Date: 2013–09–05
  3. By: Nadjiba Hajiyeva
    Abstract: Достижение стабильного роста, модернизация и интеграции экономики страны посредством социально экономического развития регионов.Исходной предпосылкой при формировании и реализации модели развития регионов является заранее предусмотренная совокупность управленческих подходов и организационных действий законодательных и исполнительных органов власти. Для достижения стратегических целей используется системный подход, позволяющий определить значение и роль регионов в стратегии развития страны, принципы формирования структуры экономики регионов, выявить общие закономерности и учитывать специфические особенности конкретных регионов. В ближайшие 3 года рост ВВП в не нефтяном секторе ожидается в среднем на уровне 8% в год, к 2015-м году доля нефтяного сектора в ВВП снизится на почти на 50%, а доля не нефтяного сектора в ВВП возрастет с почти на 20% .
    Keywords: Азербайджан, Socio-economic development, Regional integration
    Date: 2013–09–05
  4. By: Fabio Indeo
    Abstract: The presence in its territory of huge oil and gas reserves and its geographic-territorial location as a kind of “energy bridge” between Caspian energy and Turks and European markets represent relevant geopolitical factors which have enhanced the strategic relevance of Azerbaijan in the regional and international scenario. Thanks to these conditions, several energy projects (pipelines, LNG terminals) have been proposed with the aim to cross Azeri republic or to use Azeri oil and gas reserves: the most famous is Nabucco and the Southern Corridor but there are others like AGRI, TANAP, ITGI, TAP which stress the rising importance of this Caucasian republic. The aim of this paper is to evaluate if Azerbaijan could play both roles as energy supplier and energy hub in the East-West corridor in the next years and which geopolitical, strategic and economic gains could obtain considering following issues: Azerbaijan is a strategic key partner for the EU in order to satisfy its growing demand of energy and to achieve its energy security strategy focus on the diversification of export route and on the reduction of export dependency from Russia; Azerbaijan could be a geopolitical player in the Russian energy strategy aimed to preserve the EU dependency from Russian gas hindering the realization of the Southern Corridor; Azerbaijan could become a strategic energy partner for Turkey, not only following the implementation of the planned TANAP pipeline but because most of planned energy routes projects involving Azerbaijan must necessarily cross Turkish territory; Azerbaijan is the obliged route for Central Asian states (mainly Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) which aimed to channel their oil and gas exports towards Western and European markets. We can observe that the precondition for a full implementation of the Southern Corridor is the Turkmen-Azeri appeasementTo develop my research, I use a comparative method through which I analyse how Azeri strategic key drivers (strategic geographic position, huge oil and gas reserves, Azerbaijan's diversification strategy of energy exports) have attracted interests of geopolitical actors in order to achieve their strategic energy goals.The convergence of strategic interests between Azerbaijan and EU focused on the energy diversification concept has enhanced the Caucasian republic in the role of key partner for EU, in order to achieve its energy security through the implementation of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC). The future implementation of the Trans Anatolia Gas Pipeline (TANAP) will represent a concrete and feasible opportunity for Azerbaijan to play both role of transit and supplier country within the SGC also benefiting of several economic, political and strategic gains. However, the achievement of this result will hinder Russian geopolitical plans in the region (to set back EU energy diversification projects and to obtain additional volumes of gas to fuel South Stream project). The concrete achievement of the Azeri geopolitical ambition to become a strategic energy supplier and transit country depends on the solution of regional hindrances, such as the obliged Georgian export route, the unsolved Caspian legal status, relations with Turkmenistan to realize the Trans Caspian energy corridor..
    Keywords: Azerbaijan, Energy, Infrastructure
    Date: 2013–09–05
  5. By: Jeyhun Mammadov; Assoc. Prof. Dr. Jeyhun Mammadov; Prof. Dr. Ingilab Ahmadov; PhD candidate, Kenan Aslanli
    Abstract: Natural resource dependence is believed to have potential impact on institutional development, and there is growing consensus in the academic literature that institutional weakness is central to the explanation of the negative effects of resource booms. Generally, the quality of institutional framework and natural resource dependence interact mutually. Natural resources rents can damage institutions by removing incentives to conduct reforms and even to establish a well-functioning bureaucracy. Also, weak institutional quality is the ultimate cause for a disadvantageous management framework of natural resources and process of converting revenue flows into economic development. This paper presents a a comprehensive assessment of the linkage between institutional quality and resource dependence in resource-rich transition countries of the Caspian basin (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan) with transition economies. Drawing on multiple sources, the paper assembles a comprehensive set of information to date pertaining to the institutional quality for diverse countries of this region, both in terms of country background and levels of economic development. Also, using a panel data set containing information on government effectiveness, we establish the determinants of government effectiveness in Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan over the period of 1996 to 2011. The various combinations of variables were compared experimentally. Once we found the association between government effectiveness and resource rents using panel data analysis, we could rank the countries in terms of government effectiveness. The analysis for the total natural resource rents suggests that, in aggregate, revenues on total natural resources have a negative impact on government effectiveness. The countries with higher average oil rents (% of GDP) and total natural resource rents (% of GDP) have lower rates of government effectiveness. This finding is promising and should be explored with other resource-rich countries. Our results are encouraging and should be validated in a larger set of relevant data which directly and indirectly relates to quality of governance and government effectiveness. These results provide compelling evidence that there is a direct undue influence among variables related to resource abundance and institutional quality. An applied approach in this study can be used in the identification of institutional aspects of the “resource curse” concept. Our study provides the framework for future studies to assess the quality of institutions in resource-rich countries, but has also raised some serious questions. One of the important questions for future studies is to define the mutual influence channels between institutional quality and natural resource dependence using multidimensional variables.
    Keywords: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan, Energy, Socio-economic development
    Date: 2013–09–05
  6. By: Harald Schmidbauer; Angi Roesch; Erhan Uluceviz
    Abstract: The overall degree of international equity market connectedness has gradually increased over the past two decades. Reflecting the shift in global economic power, it has been recently suggested to pay more attention to the BRICT (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Turkey) countries. Building on, and methodologically adding to, an established approach to market connectedness, this study makes an effort to assess the connectedness of these markets, together with the US and German equity markets. Our methodological contributions consist of the analysis of information propagation, based on Markov chains and information entropy. We find that the BRICT countries' degree of equity market connectedness has increased substantially since the early 2000s, with different timing which can be related to major international events. Furthermore, in spite of increased Chinese connectedness, a hypothetical shock to the Chinese equity market still has a very low impact on risk levels in other markets, in contrast to shocks in other markets considered here. Nevertheless, a shock to the Chinese equity market creates an information disequilibrium harder to digest by the international market system than a shock to the German or US markets. This analysis permits conclusions concerning the information policy prevalent in markets.
    Keywords: BRICT (Brazil, Russia, India, China), USA, Germany, Macroeconometric modeling, Developing countries
    Date: 2013–06–21
  7. By: Zheng Wang; GU Gaoxiang
    Abstract: the process-technology progress which is caused by the improvement of the productive technologies can reduce the demands of the intermediate inputs in the productive process, and then reduce the energy demands and the carbon emissions. Thus, to improve the level of process technologies is an important way for the global carbon emission abatement. In this paper, based on Jin (2012)’s model, a general equilibrium model of multi-country-section economy was built. Coupled with the climate system of RICE model, a climate-economy integrated assessment model was built with the interactions between the economic system and the climate system.Coupled with the climate system of RICE model, a climate-economy integrated assessment model was built with the interactions between the economic system and the climate system.Based on this model, the carbon emissions and the energy demands of different countries and sections were studied. The simulated outcomes show that the process-technology progress can bring on early peaks of energy demands and carbon emissions. Under the three different scenarios, China will reach its carbon emission peak at year 2034, 2030, and 2022 respectively. In the more bold scenario 3, the accumulated carbon emission of China can reduce to 93GtC, accomplishing the abatement target of 100GtC. Besides, along with the progress of the process technologies, the developing countries like China and India have larger abatement potentials, which in the sections, the energy section and the service sections have larger abatement potentials.
    Keywords: China, US, EU, Japan, India and Russia, Energy and environmental policy, General equilibrium modeling
    Date: 2014–07–03
  8. By: Michael Hübler; Frank Pothen
    Abstract: We scrutinize the impact of international productivity gains (spillovers) induced by imports and exports on optimal tariffs. Our research question reads: how do trade-induced international productivity gains influence the choice of the optimal tariff?Trade-induced international technology spillovers (productivity gains) are implemented in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS that uses the novel global WIOD data set. The CGE implementation is backed up by a stylized theoretical model, and the strength of productivity spillovers is econometrically estimated by using the WIOD data.First, we show theoretically that (a) productivity gains via exports and imports both reduce the strategically optimal tariff, (b) there exists a certain strength of productivity gains such that the incentive to manipulate the terms of trade strategically vanishes, (c) the welfare gain that can be achieved via a tariff is lower in the presence of productivity gains than in their absence, and (d) these results even hold without power on international markets. Second, we estimate econometrically that import-driven productivity gains are stronger than export-driven productivity gains. Third, we find numerically that optimal tariffs are reduced by 1% for the USA and China and 40% for Brazil when taking trade-induced productivity gains into account. The USA are the only model region that gains from European optimal tariff policy. Overall, we show that trade-induced productivity gains have empirically relevant effects on optimal tariffs.
    Keywords: EU, USA, Russia, Brazil, India, China, East Asia, ROW, General equilibrium modeling, Trade issues
    Date: 2014–07–03
  9. By: Qanimat Safarov
    Abstract: This article has investigated the trend of human development in the Azerbaijan Republic. It was accordingly analyze indices subgroups affecting human development, and compared the average for the countries of the Caucasus, the CIS and the world. It was also summarized the factors affecting human development and to develop proposals and recommendations. See above See above
    Keywords: Azerbaijan, Regional integration, Regional integration
    Date: 2013–09–05

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