nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2014‒08‒20
thirteen papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Russia’s Oil and Gas Sector in 2013 By Yuri Bobylev
  2. Birth Control In Russia: Overcoming The State System Resistance By Victoria I. Sakevich; Boris P. Denisov
  3. Russia’s Inter-budgetary Relations and Sub-national Finances in 2013 By Arseny Mamedov; Andrey Alaev; Igor Arlashkin; Alexander Deryugin; Vladimir Nazarov
  4. Russia’s Foreign Trade in 2013 By Nadezhda Volovik
  5. Key trends in the development of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation in 2013 By Arseny Mamedov
  6. Russia’s Banking Sector in 2013 By Mikhail Khromov
  7. Consumption Of Counterfeit Alcohol In Contemporary Russia: The Role Of Cultural And Structural Factors By Zoya Kotelnikova
  8. Public Sector and Privatisation in Russia in 2013 By Alexander Radygin; Georgy Malginov
  9. Russian Industrial Enterprises in 2013 By Sergey Tsukhlo
  10. Youth and Employment among the BRICS By Rafael Guerreiro Osorio; Pedro Lara de Arruda
  11. What Happened in Cyprus? The Economic Consequences of the Last Communist Government in Europe By Athanasios Orphanides
  13. Kyrgyz Republic: Sixth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility; Staff Report; and Press Release By International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

  1. By: Yuri Bobylev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Oil and gas comprise the main sector of the Russian economy that continues to play a key role in shaping the state budget revenues and the balance of trade. In 2013, against the background of continuing high global prices for oil and gas, petroleum production in Russia reached its highest level since 1990, and the export of oil and petroleum products reached a historic high. However, there was then a slowdown in petroleum production and a worsening of conditions for its production. In 2013, in order to create appropriate conditions for the further development of the oil and gas sector legislative solutions were adopted involving tax incentives for the development of resources where oil recovery was difficult, the differentiation of gas production taxation and the application of a special tax regime for deposits being developed on the continental shelf, together with a liberalisation of the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG)?
    Keywords: Russian economy; oil world prices; oil production structure; oil and gas exports; tax regulation of the oil and gas sector;
    JEL: L71 L72
    Date: 2014
  2. By: Victoria I. Sakevich (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Boris P. Denisov (Moscow State University)
    Abstract: This paper considers the changes in the major proximate determinants of fertility in Russia within the framework of demographic transition theory and Bongaarts approach to fertility analysis. After World War II Russian fertility became a fully controlled process. The complex interplay of abortion and contraception during the Soviet period resulted in a very high abortion level. The Russian government has almost never supported and promoted family planning as an alternative to abortion. However couples' preferences for few offspring appeared more powerful than the will of authorities. Current trends show that despite the lack of governmental support society itself is evolving towards more humanistic and effective birth control. Estimates based on recent surveys' data confirm the validity of official statistics showing there is a decline in the number of abortions
    Keywords: birth control, abortion, contraception, reproductive health, RLMS-HSE, Russia.
    JEL: I18 J13
    Date: 2014
  3. By: Arseny Mamedov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Andrey Alaev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Igor Arlashkin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Alexander Deryugin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Vladimir Nazarov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with Russia's inter-budgetary relations and sub-national finances
    Keywords: Russian economy; fiscal relations; subnational finances; federal budget; road funds; subnational budgets
    JEL: H5
    Date: 2014
  4. By: Nadezhda Volovik (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with the broad specter of Russia's foreign trade issues. The authors analyze major indicators, geographical profile regulation and the terms of Russia's foreign trade.
    Keywords: Russian economy; foreign trade; Russia's foreign trade regulations;
    JEL: F10 F13 F19
    Date: 2014
  5. By: Arseny Mamedov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with Russia's budgetary system
    Keywords: Russian economy; state budget, budgetary system
    JEL: E62 H20 H50
    Date: 2014
  6. By: Mikhail Khromov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with Russia's banking sector in 2013. The author focuses on relationship between banks and corporate customers, foreign transactions in the banking sector, banking regulation
    Keywords: Russian economy; banking sector; foreign transactions; banking regulation;
    JEL: E41 E51 E58 E21 E24
    Date: 2014
  7. By: Zoya Kotelnikova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The majority of Russians believe that counterfeit alcohol may cause death. Nevertheless, alcohol is a common target of counterfeiting in contemporary Russia as are branded clothes, accessories and audio products. This paper aims to reveal whether counterfeit alcohol consumers are distinctive in terms of structure and culture. It investigates the prevalence and structure of counterfeit alcohol purchasing and consumption; attitudes and beliefs about counterfeit alcohol; and predictors of counterfeit alcohol consumption. The research is based on the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS-HSE), an annual nationwide panel survey designed to monitor the health and economic welfare of households and individuals in the Russian Federation. The research findings demonstrate that cultural and structural factors contribute a lot to the consumption of counterfeit alcohol. Counterfeit alcohol consumption is associated with hazardous alcohol drinkers and homemade alcohol drinkers who tend to ignore trademarks and the taste of alcoholic beverages. Blur counterfeiting is a characteristic of hazardous alcohol drinkers and vodka-lovers who are inclined to be price sensitive and to ignore brands. Social networks play a significant role in consumption of counterfeit alcohol. Counterfeit alcohol consumers are highly likely to represent lower classes.
    Keywords: counterfeiting; blur counterfeiting; illicit alcohol; unrecorded consumption; compulsory consumption; emerging markets.
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2014
  8. By: Alexander Radygin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Georgy Malginov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The core events which took place last year and which are related to the issues under consideration are the approval of a new three year privatisation programme for 2014–2016, including corporate control of market transactions associated with Rosneft and Gazprom, as well as the restructuring of the space industry, which is similar to that performed in relation to the aerospace and ship building industries.
    Keywords: Russian economy; privatization; public sector; public sector in the economy; structural policy
    JEL: H82 K11 L32 L33
    Date: 2014
  9. By: Sergey Tsukhlo (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The section is prepared using data of monthly business surveys conducted by the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (IEP) among managers of industrial enterprises since September 1992. The surveys are based on the European harmonized methodology and encompass the entire territory of the Russian Federation. The size of the panel is about 1000 enterprises that employ over 13% of the total number of employed in industry. The panel is biased towards large enterprises in each of the selected branches. The rate of response to questionnaires ranges from 70% to 75%.
    Keywords: Russian industry performance; lending to industry; labor problems; anti-crisis government measures;
    JEL: C53 E37 L21 L52
    Date: 2014
  10. By: Rafael Guerreiro Osorio (International Poverty Centre); Pedro Lara de Arruda (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: ?Come and Hope with Me!? This was the rallying call by South African Mongane Serote to draw the world?s attention to the battle fought by his people against Apartheid. It is in this spirit that we invite readers to explore this special edition of Policy in Focus. This issue is dedicated to the analysis of the usage of social programmes to promote youth employment in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries. In light of the 2014 BRICS Academic Forum, which will officially transfer the responsibilities of host country from South Africa to Brazil, we have set out to understand how the BRICS countries have made use of their extensive expertise in social policies and programmes to go beyond mitigation of crisis, towards the realisation of young people?s ambitions. (?)
    Keywords: Youth and Employment among the BRICS
    Date: 2014–04
  11. By: Athanasios Orphanides
    Abstract: This paper reviews developments in the Cypriot economy following the introduction of the euro on 1 January 2008 and leading to the economic collapse of the island five years later. The main cause of the collapse is identified with the election of a communist government in February 2008, within two months of the introduction of the euro, and its subsequent choices for action and inaction on economic policy matters. The government allowed a rapid deterioration of public finances, and despite repeated warnings, damaged the country’s creditworthiness and lost market access in May 2011. The destruction of the island’s largest power station in July 2011 subsequently threw the economy into recession. Together with the intensification of the euro area crisis in the summer and fall of 2011, these events weakened the banking system which was vulnerable due to its exposure in Greece. Rather than deal with its fiscal crisis, the government secured a loan from the Russian government that allowed it to postpone action until after the February 2013 election. Rather than protect the banking system, losses were imposed on banks and a campaign against them was coordinated and used as a platform by the communist party for the February 2013 election. The strategy succeeded in delaying resolution of the crisis and avoiding short-term political cost for the communist party before the election, but also in precipitating a catastrophe right after the election.
    Date: 2014
  12. By: Popov, Vladimir
    Abstract: Why even after the dramatic increase in inequality in the 1990s and after the emergence and enrichment of “oligarchs”, the alternative (leftist, social democratic) economic policies that could have improved material and social wellbeing of the majority of the population is not supported by this majority? It is argued that in immature democracies (without efficient restrictions for the participation of private capital in politics) mass media and electoral campaigns are controlled by the rich, so there is vicious circle: market reforms and private property create the class of the wealthy (“oligarchs”) that are not only interested in these reforms, but also have power to maintain their political and eonomic might through mass media and democratic elections. The return of public opinion to the “norm” so that it reflects interests of the majority is possible only if mass media and political process are separated from private capital and private financing. =================================================== Почему после резкого увеличения неравенства в 90-е годы прошлого века, после появления и стремительного обогащения «олигархов», альтернативная (левая, социал-демократическая) экономическая политика, которая могла бы улучшить материальное и социальное положение значительного большинства населения не поддерживается этим большинством? В статье доказывается, что в условиях незрелой демократии (без эффективных барьеров для участия частного капитала в политике) средства массовой информации и избирательные кампании контролируются владельцами крупных состояний, так что возникает замкнутый круг: рыночные рефоры и частная собственность рождают класс богатых («олигархов»), которые не только заинтересованы в этих реформах, но и обладают рычагами поддержания своего экономического и политического влияния через СМИ и демократические выборы. Возвращение общественных предпочтений к «норме» – к стереотипам, отражающим интересы большинства, возможно лишь при отделении СМИ и политического процесса в целом от частного капитала и частного финансирования.
    Keywords: Public opinion, transition from socialism to capitalism, inequalities, elections, mass media
    JEL: H00 P26 P3
    Date: 2014–08–08
  13. By: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
    Abstract: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Political context. On April 3, 2014, parliament approved a new government, led by Mr. Otorbaev, the new Prime Minister. The ministers of economy and finances kept their positions. Moreover, on May 7, 2014, a new chairperson was appointed for the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR). No major changes in economic policies are expected. In February 2014, parliament approved a new deal with Centerra, ending a two-year dispute over the Kumtor gold mine. Background. In the first quarter, growth moderated to 5.6 percent (year-on-year) after the 2013 growth spike at 10.5 percent related to an unexpectedly high level of gold production. In the same period, inflation picked up slightly, owing to depreciation of the som in response to pressures from the depreciation of the Russian ruble and the devaluation of the Kazakh tenge. The NBKR intervened heavily to mitigate these pressures, but has recently rebuilt reserves to ensure a more comfortable level of over three months of imports. The current account is expected to deteriorate this year because of higher imports related to large public investments and FDI-financed infrastructure projects. Fiscal performance in 2013 was better than expected, with a deficit of 4 percent of GDP, but revenue headwinds call for a cautious budget in 2014. The medium-term outlook remains broadly favorable, provided prudent macroeconomic policies continue and are supported with structural reforms, including tax policy and administration reforms, public financial management (PFM) reforms, and implementation of FSAP recommendations, in particular the Banking Code. Program. The program is broadly on track, with all end-December 2013 quantitative performance criteria and all but one indicative targets (IT) met for end-December 2013. Although three March 2014 ITs were missed, since then there has been progress in rebuilding reserves and enhancing tax collections. The two structural benchmarks (SBs) for end-December were met, and the SB on signing the contract with one of the big four audit companies to audit the Debt Resolution Agency (DEBRA) is expected to be completed with delay. The remaining SB on introducing the Treasury Single Account (TSA) on a pilot basis was missed. Overall, the Kyrgyz authorities are completing a broadly successful three-year ECF arrangement, although further reforms will be needed to preserve and deepen the accomplishments. Despite occasional domestic political turmoil, the authorities have regained and maintained macroeconomic stability, consolidated the fiscal position, implemented a new monetary framework, and embarked on a comprehensive banking sector reform. The authorities have not yet expressed their intentions regarding a successor program.
    Keywords: Extended Credit Facility;Economic growth;Fiscal policy;Fiscal consolidation;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Economic indicators;Staff Reports;Letters of Intent;Press releases;Kyrgyz Republic;
    Date: 2014–07–11

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