nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2014‒08‒16
sixteen papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. The Living Standards of Russia's Population in 2013 By Svetlana Misikhona
  2. Russian Agriculture: the First Year within the World Trade Organization By Natalia Karlova; Vasily Uzun; Natalia Shagaida; Renata Yanbykh
  3. Russia’s Domestic Investments in Fixed Assets in 2013 By Olga Izryadnova
  4. Foreign Investments in Russia in 2013 By Ekaterina Ilyukhina
  5. Russia’s Monetary Policy in 2013 By Alexandra Bozhechkova; Anna Kiyutsevskaya; Pavel Trunin
  6. Russia’s Financial Markets and Financial Institutions in 2013 By Alexander Abramov
  7. Russia’s Market for Municipal and Subfederal Borrowings in 2013 By Artem Shadrin
  8. Russia’s Macrostructure of Production in 2013 By Olga Izryadnova
  9. Analysis of the main tax receipts to the budgetary system of the Russian Federation By Sergey Belev
  10. Russian Federation: Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
  11. Russian Federation: 2014 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Informational Annex; Press Release By International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
  12. Digesting the Alphabet Soup: a Comparative Institutional History of IBSA and BRICS By Pedro Lara de Arruda; Ashleigh Kate Slingsby
  13. Oil Prices and Interstate Conflict Behavior By Cullen S. Hendrix
  14. Securitização de Ativos Públicos Para Financiamento de Projetos de Infraestrutura: O Caso Brasileiro e a Experiência dos Brics By Edison Benedito da Silva Filho
  15. You Can Go Your Own Way: Explaining Partisan Support for Independence By Tim Willems
  16. Republic of Latvia: 2014 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Latvia By International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

  1. By: Svetlana Misikhona (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Over 2013, the population’s real disposable income rose by 3.3%. The salary level in the budget-funded sphere was being raised at a high rate – which, however, proved to be insufficient to meet the targets set in the President of the Russian Federation's Executive Order of 7 May 2012, No. 597 'On Measures Aimed at the Implementation of Government Social Policy'. The income inequality index over the period January–September 2013 somewhat increased. The poverty level over the first 9 months of 2013 was 0.5 pp. above its level over the corresponding period of 2012, due in the main to the alterations introduced into the methodology applied for estimating the subsistence level. The impact of social transfers on the child poverty level in Russia is low by comparison with that in the European Union.
    Keywords: Russian economy; personal income; poverty; consumptio
    JEL: I31 I32
    Date: 2014
  2. By: Natalia Karlova (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Vasily Uzun (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Natalia Shagaida (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Renata Yanbykh (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with the outcome of the first year of Russia’s membership in WTO.
    Keywords: Russian economy, Russian agricultural production, WTO
    Date: 2014
  3. By: Olga Izryadnova (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with domestic capital investments in Russia in 2013.
    Keywords: Russian economy, domestic investment
    JEL: F34 G24
    Date: 2014
  4. By: Ekaterina Ilyukhina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with foreign investments in Russia 2013
    Keywords: Russian economy, foreign invetment
    JEL: E22
    Date: 2014
  5. By: Alexandra Bozhechkova (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Anna Kiyutsevskaya (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Pavel Trunin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with Russia's monetary policy in 2013
    Keywords: Russian economy; monetary policymoney market; inflation; balance of payments; exchange rate;
    JEL: E31 E43 E44 E51 E58 E52
    Date: 2014
  6. By: Alexander Abramov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with a wide scope of issues, starting with the post-crisis recovery of Russia's financial market. The author analyzes the market for shares issued by Russian companies, investigates dependence on the global conjuncture of prices and inflow and outflow of foreign portfolio investment. He also studies currency exchange rate, looks at the competition on the domestic share market, and analyzes preliminary results of the merger of the RTS and MICEX. The article deals with the market for ruble-denominated bonds. The author provides analysis of financial market risks and looks at the development of Russia's domestic savings system
    Keywords: Russia's financial market; portfolio investment; exchange rate; share market; financial institutions; bond market;
    JEL: J14 G15 G32 E44
    Date: 2014
  7. By: Artem Shadrin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with Russia’s market for municipal and sub-federal borrowings.
    Keywords: Russian economy; municipalities, municipal debt, borrowing
    JEL: H74 H76 H77
    Date: 2014
  8. By: Olga Izryadnova (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with Russia’s marcoeconomic structure. The author analyzes major trends and drivers, major GDP characteristics, changes in GDP structure, production development and structure by type of economic activity.
    Keywords: Russian economy; Russia’s GDP
    JEL: O11 G18 G28
    Date: 2014
  9. By: Sergey Belev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with tax receipts of the Russia's budgetary system
    Keywords: Russian economy; state budget, budgetary system, tax receipts
    JEL: E62 H20 H50
    Date: 2014
  10. By: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
    Abstract: Russia’s trend growth is volatile. The transition from a centrally planned to a market economy started in 1991, hence time series are relatively short compared to other countries. The size and depth of structural reforms during the 1990’s, the financial crisis and default in 1998, followed by the oil boom in the 2000’s, and subsequent GFC, make identification of a stable “long run†growth trend a very hard task. Hence, it is complicated to pin down an accurate estimate of potential growth and the output gap.
    Keywords: Economic growth;Gross domestic product;Economic reforms;Capacity utilization;Economic indicators;Labor market characteristics;Production functions;Production growth;Market economies;Selected Issues Papers;Russian Federation;
    Date: 2014–07–01
  11. By: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
    Abstract: KEY ISSUES AND RECOMMENDATIONS Context. The growth slowdown continued in 2013, reflecting pre-existing structural reasons, despite accommodative policies. The fallout from geopolitical tensions relating to Ukraine is bringing the economy to a standstill. Fiscal tightening is expected this year as the non-oil deficit remains near record high. In response to mounting pressures on the ruble, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) raised interest rates to address risks to medium- term inflation and increased intervention to support the ruble. Some structural reforms were initiated, including a partial pension reform and a new procurement law. Near-term macroeconomic policy mix. Faced with exceptional circumstances, policies should aim at preserving macroeconomic stability. A tighter monetary stance is required over the next year to attain the 2015 inflation target. The CBR should resume its policy towards greater exchange rate flexibility as soon as the current uncertainty subsidies. Modest fiscal tightening, despite the economic slowdown, appears justified as output remains close to potential. Adhering to the fiscal rule is essential to support its credibility and the needed medium-term fiscal consolidation. Medium-term policy challenges. Structural reforms remain essential to enhance Russia’s growth potential. Continued efforts at global integration are necessary to attract investment and boost potential growth. Reforms discussed in the context of the stalled OECD accession negotiations should continue, including improving labor markets and reducing tax burden, administrative barriers, and corruption. Pushing ahead with the privatization plans should enhance economic efficiency. Additional fiscal consolidation in outer years is recommended to rebuild buffers and to safeguard intergenerational equity.
    Keywords: Article IV consultation reports;Economic conditions;Monetary policy;Fiscal policy;Exchange rate policy;Economic reforms;Inflation targeting;Political economy;Financial soundness indicators;Sanctions;Financial Sector Assessment Program;Staff Reports;Press releases;Russian Federation;
    Date: 2014–07–01
  12. By: Pedro Lara de Arruda (IPC-IG); Ashleigh Kate Slingsby (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: The BRICS Grouping (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and the IBSA Dialogue Forum (India, Brazil and South Africa)represent interregional cooperative mechanisms of increasing importance in international relations. This can be attributed to the recent rise of the global South, placing unprecedented emphasis on South?South cooperation. With three members in common, the necessity for and contribution of both IBSA and BRICS are often called into question. IBSA?s two-year successive postponement of its annual summit, five of which have taken place thus far, has prompted questions regarding the continued relevance of an organisation which in many ways is viewed as duplicating the functions of BRICS. Combined with the fact that BRICS contains the political-economic weight of Russia and China (permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Nuclear Superpowers), the future of IBSA is doubted by some. To determine the future of IBSA, it is important to examine how it differs from BRICS in terms of capacity, priorities and political character. (?) earchBrief43.pdf
    Keywords: Digesting the Alphabet Soup: a Comparative Institutional History of IBSA and BRICS
    Date: 2014–06
  13. By: Cullen S. Hendrix (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: Anecdotal evidence suggests high oil prices embolden leaders in oil-rich states to pursue more aggressive foreign policies. This article tests the conjecture in a sample of 153 countries for the time period 1947–2001. It finds strong evidence of a contingent effect of oil prices on interstate disputes, with high oil prices associated with signifi cant increases in dispute behavior among oil-exporting states, while having either a negative or null effect on dispute behavior in nonexporting states.
    Keywords: oil, conflict, diplomacy, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, resource curse
    JEL: D74 F51 Q41
    Date: 2014–07
  14. By: Edison Benedito da Silva Filho
    Abstract: O estudo busca analisar os principais desafios e oportunidades do emprego da securitização de ativos públicos como instrumento facilitador de inversões no setor de infraestrutura no Brasil e de fomento ao mercado doméstico de capitais. A securitização de ativos públicos oferece vantagens para o financiamento de projetos de longo prazo de empresas e agências estatais e entidades subnacionais, como atestam exemplos recentes dos BRICS (Brasil, Rússia, Índia, China e África do Sul). Contudo, para viabilizar seu desenvolvimento se faz necessário aprimorar o arcabouço institucional e financeiro que fornece suporte aos projetos de infraestrutura, além de uma contabilização dos ativos públicos mais consistente com as práticas de mercado. Nesse sentido, as parcerias público-privadas e a participação do investimento estrangeiro podem, para além de dinamizar os projetos de infraestrutura, também desempenhar um papel relevante no aprimoramento da gestão de ativos públicos no Brasil. The study assesses the key challenges and opportunities for securitization of public assets as a way to foster investment in the infrastructure sector in Brazil and to improve the domestic capital market. The securitization of public assets offers advantages for public financing of infrastructure projects and the strengthening of the capital market in Brazil, as evidenced by recent examples of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). However, it demands not only improving the institutional and financial framework that provides support for infrastructure projects, but also public accounting standards that should be be aligned with the best market practices. In this sense, in addition to boost infrastructure projects, public-private partnerships and foreign investment may also play an important role in improving the management of public assets in Brazil.
    Date: 2014–07
  15. By: Tim Willems
    Abstract: This paper analyzes secessions through the lens of representative democratic institutions and considers the incentives of partisan political parties to support independence movements.� It points out that, if anything, separatists should expect to receive support from exactly the "unlike-minded" political party - the reason being that this party might see a break-up as an opportunity to reshape the electorate towards its own preferences.� By doing so, a party could increase its future probability of being elected, while it is also able to shift the entire political spectrum towards its own partisan ideal.� The model is able to explain much of what is currently going on in the debate on Scottish independence, while it can also be applied to issues of political integration (the European Union) and territorial conflicts (think of Ukraine and Russia in relation to Crimea, as well as the situation in Israel).
    Keywords: Nations, Secession, Territorial conflict, Probabilistic voting
    JEL: D72 H77
    Date: 2014–08–07
  16. By: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
    Abstract: Latvia entered the euro area in January 2014 with the fastest rate of growth in Europe. The 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that a slowdown in investment and exports was partly compensated by robust consumption demand, supported by rising real wages, bringing GDP growth in 2013 to 4.1 percent. Strong job creation reduced the unemployment rate to 11.3 percent by end-2013, close to its structural level. Consumer price inflation fell to an average of about zero in 2013, mainly owing to weakening energy prices. The 2013 general government deficit outturn of 1.0 percent of GDP was below the target of 1.4 percent.
    Keywords: Article IV consultation reports;Economic recovery;Economic growth;Fiscal policy;Labor markets;Fiscal reforms;Banking sector;Bank credit;Bank supervision;Economic indicators;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Latvia;
    Date: 2014–05–08

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