nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2014‒07‒13
twelve papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Between Light and Shadow: Informality in the Russian Labour Market By Gimpelson, Vladimir; Kapeliushnikov, Rostislav
  2. Institutions of the Russian fiscal federalism: 20 years of evolution By Elena Jarocinska
  3. Exchange rate movements and stock market returns in a regime-switching environment: Evidence for BRICS countries By Walid Chkili; Duc Khuong Nguyen
  4. The environmental implications of Russia's accession to the world trade organization By Bohringer, Christoph; Rutherford, Thomas F.; Tarr, David G.; Turdyeva, Natalia
  5. Russian Federation: Fiscal Transparency Evaluation By International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
  6. Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Business Cycle Patterns By Oumar Diallo; Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba
  7. Structural Breakage and Long Term Cointegration Analysis for Economic Growth in G-7, BRICS and MATIK Countries (1962-2012) By KARGI, Bilal
  8. Caminhos para o Investimento Privado nas Economias Emergentes: as Características Institucionais e os Spreads Corporativos By Katia Rocha; Ajax Moreira; Gabriel Fiuza; Marcelo Pessoa
  9. Antinomias del capitalismo: Una reseña sobre El malestar en la globalización de Joseph Stiglitz By Estrada, Fernando
  10. Wieviel Potenzial steckt in den BRICS? By Verena Ebner; Christina Mumme; Wolfgang Lueghammer; Wilhelm Schachinger; Wolfgang Schwarzbauer; Brigitte Hochmuth; Sarah Lappöhn; Iain Paterson; Alina Pohl; Christian Reiner; Edith Skriner; Alexander Schnabl
  11. Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia By Alberto Behar; Jaime Espinosa-Bowen
  12. Ukraine: Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2010 Stand-by Arrangement By International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

  1. By: Gimpelson, Vladimir (CLMS, Higher School of Economics, Moscow); Kapeliushnikov, Rostislav (CLMS, Higher School of Economics, Moscow)
    Abstract: Economic growth in Russia in the first decade of this century almost doubled the country's GDP but was accompanied by substantial reallocation of labor to the unregulated sector while formal employment was on gradual decline. The paper overviews evolution of the Russian labour market during the period of 2000-10 and discusses most general implications of informality to employment and earnings as well as the associated political economy challenges and consequences.
    Keywords: informal labour market, employment, Russia
    JEL: J31 J40 P2
    Date: 2014–06
  2. By: Elena Jarocinska
    Abstract: In this brief, the author summarizes the main thrust of Russian federal fiscal institutions and discusses their specific features. She describes the evolution of federal fiscal regulations since the establishment of the Russian federal state. As a conclusion, she offers the following policy recommendations: tax autonomy of subnational governments which is currently very limited should be increased; federal aid should be further formalized and made more transparent; regulations should not be changed from year to year to provide for a more stable environment; and subnational interests should be better protected at the institutional level.
    Keywords: Russia, fiscal reforms, monetary policy
    Date: 2014–06
  3. By: Walid Chkili; Duc Khuong Nguyen
    Abstract: We use a regime-switching model approach to investigate the dynamic linkages between the exchange rates and stock market returns for the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). The univariate analysis indicates that stock returns
    Keywords: Stock markets, Foreign exchange rate, BRICS countries, Markov switching VAR
    JEL: C22 G15 F31
    Date: 2014–06–23
  4. By: Bohringer, Christoph; Rutherford, Thomas F.; Tarr, David G.; Turdyeva, Natalia
    Abstract: This report investigates the environmental impacts of Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization. A 10-region, 30-sector model of the Russian economy is developed. The model is innovative and more accurate empirically in that it contains foreign direct investment, imperfectly competitive sectors, and endogenous productivity effects triggered by World Trade Organization accession along with environmental emissions data in Russia for seven pollutants that are tracked for all 30 sectors in each of the 10 regions. The decomposition analysis shows that despite the fact that World Trade Organization accession allows Russia to import better technologies and reduce pollution from the"technique effect,"on balance World Trade Organization accession alone will increase environmental pollution in Russia through a shift toward dirty industries (the"composition effect") and the expansion of output with its associated increase in pollution ("scale effect"). The paper assesses the costs of three types of environmental regulations to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20 percent. The paper simultaneously implements a central case scenario with each of the carbon dioxide emission reduction policy initiatives. The analysis finds that the welfare gains of World Trade Organization accession are large enough to pay for the costs of any of the three environmental abatement policies, while leaving a net welfare gain. But the political economy implications are that the non-market-based policies are more costly and the command and control policy, which is not well targeted, is very costly. Based on a constant returns to scale model, the estimated welfare gains are insufficient to finance the costs of environmental regulation.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics&Policies,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Climate Change Economics,Economic Theory&Research,Environment and Energy Efficiency
    Date: 2014–06–01
  5. By: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
    Abstract: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Most aspects of Russia’s fiscal reporting and budgeting practices are in line with good or advanced practice under the July 2013 draft of the Fiscal Transparency Code, and the disclosure and management of fiscal risks has significantly improved in recent years (Table 0.1). Specifically, over the past decade and a half: * the 1998 Budget Code and subsequent amendments have established a comprehensive legal framework for fiscal management at all levels of government; * the government began publishing cash-based in-year and year-end fiscal reports and accrual-based annual financial statements as well as fiscal statistics which consolidate Federal, regional, and municipal governments in line with international standards; * detailed and credible medium-term macroeconomic forecasts have been prepared since early 2000, and a new oil price-based fiscal rule was introduced in 2013 to encourage sustainable and counter-cyclical fiscal policymaking; * the coverage of the Federal government budget has steadily expanded and the three main remaining extra-budgetary funds are presented and approved alongside it in a timely manner; * the policy-orientation of the budget has improved thanks to a comprehensive and detailed medium-term budget framework introduced in 2008, and a new program and performance budgeting system introduced in the 2014 Budget; and * firm central controls over key sources of fiscal risks have been established, including annual limits on the issuance of debt, credit, and guarantees by the Federal government, and on borrowing by sub-national governments.2 At the same time, this evaluation highlights a number of important areas where fiscal transparency practices could be further improved: * while fiscal reports provide a relatively comprehensive picture of the Federal and sub-national government finances, they exclude the financial activity of various classes of government-controlled enterprises with net expenditure of at least 29 percent of GDP and liabilities of at least 127 percent of GDP in 2012;3 2 As a result of these successive enhancements to fiscal disclosure, between 2006 and 2012 Russia’s rating under the International Budget Partnership’s Open Budget Index has risen from a score of 47 to 74 out of 100 and from a ranking of 28th out of 59 countries to 10th out of 100 countries. 3 Figures quoted here and in the remainder of this report are based on data from the 26 largest government-controlled enterprises by liability.
    Keywords: Fiscal transparency;Fiscal policy;Budgets;Budgeting;Economic forecasting;Fiscal risk;Risk management;Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes;Russian Federation;
    Date: 2014–05–26
  6. By: Oumar Diallo; Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba
    Abstract: This paper assesses the extent to which Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)’s business cycle is synchronized with that of the rest of the world (RoW). Findings suggest that SSA’s business cycle has not only moved in the same direction as that of the RoW, but has also gradually drifted away from the G7 in favour of the BRICs. Trade with the BRICs turns out to be the strongest driver of this shift. Much of this impact unfolds through aggregate demand impulse from trade. As fiscal policy stances in SSA and the BRICs are not synchronized, they have not caused cyclical output correlation between these two groups of countries. Also, financial openness, which is at a very early stage across most SSA countries, has acted as a neutral force.
    Keywords: Business cycles;Brazil;Russian Federation;India;China;Sub-Saharan Africa;Trade integration;Demand;Fiscal policy;Economic models;Business Cycle Synchronicity, Trade, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the BRICs.
    Date: 2014–02–14
  7. By: KARGI, Bilal
    Abstract: In this article, long term data is analysed for the total growth of the world economy and the growth of developed (G7) and of the rapid developing economies. The total population of BRICS and MATIK countries generate 49,16% of the the world’s population, and their economic size generates 26,46% of total world economy. Especially, the basic hypotheses of this study is that BRICS+MATIK countries whose economic shares slowly increase are compared with G-7 and the global economy, i) help of BRICS+MATIK economies rapidly increase the growth rate of global economy: ii) BRICS+MATIK economies cause structural breakage in the growth rate of world economy. In this way, it may be possible that the help of G-7 is compared with the help of BRICS+MATIK economies for the growth of world economy. The study uses the annual data for the 1962-2012 periods. The most important finding is that BRICS+MATIK economies affect the growth rate of world economy, and it constantly increases according to the help of G-7 in post-cold war era. The result has been acquired that World, G-7, and BRICS+MATIK economies cointegrated in the long term.
    Keywords: BRICS, MATIK, Economic Growth, World Economy, Structural Breakage
    JEL: C22 O40 O57
    Date: 2014–04–30
  8. By: Katia Rocha; Ajax Moreira; Gabriel Fiuza; Marcelo Pessoa
    Abstract: O estudo analisa o papel das características institucionais do país (governança) e do sistema financeiro doméstico (desenvolvimento, eficiência, estabilidade e abertura de capital) nos determinantes dos spreads de títulos corporativos emergentes emitidos no mercado internacional. Propõe-se um modelo econométrico de dados em painel com os spreads corporativos do Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index Broad Diversified (Cembi Broad Diversified) no período de 2002 a 2011 para vinte economias emergentes. Os spreads soberanos analisados de África do Sul, Argentina, Brasil, Cazaquistão, Chile, China, Colômbia, Coreia do Sul, Filipinas, Índia, Indonésia, Malásia, México, Peru, Rússia, Singapura, Tailândia, Turquia, Ucrânia e Venezuela, constituíam em junho de 2013 aproximadamente 80% do Cembi Broad Diversified. Conclui-se que políticas que promovam liberalização financeira, abertura de capital, austeridade fiscal, desenvolvimento do sistema financeiro doméstico e melhorias em elementos institucionais do governo, como aparato legal e qualidade da regulação, têm potencial de reduzir os spreads corporativos dos mercados emergentes, em especial em momentos de aversão ao risco global. Os resultados indicam que iniciativas visando ao aprimoramento institucional do governo e ao desenvolvimento do mercado de capitais podem baratear as captações de empresas emergentes e, consequentemente, aumentar a participação do investimento privado. The study analyses the role of institutional characteristics of a country (governance) and the domestic financial system (depth, efficiency, stability, and capital openness) in determinants of emerging market corporate bond spreads issued in international market. We propose an econometric panel data with corporate bond spreads of CEMBI Broad Diversified Index in the period of 2002–2011 to twenty emerging economies. The sovereigns analyzed: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine and Venezuela corresponded to roughly 80% of CEMBI Broad Diversified Index in July 2013. We conclude that policies that promote financial liberalization, capital openness, fiscal austerity, development of domestic financial system and improve governance institutional characteristics as rule of law and regulatory quality have the potential to reduce emerging market corporate bond spreads, especially in moments of global risk aversion. Results indicate that initiatives looking forward the improvement of institutional government apparatus and capital market development may help emerging market companies to increase the share of private capital investment.
    Date: 2014–06
  9. By: Estrada, Fernando
    Abstract: The core issue raised in Globalization and its Discontents, what is the critical evaluation of the IMF's role in the financial crisis in Asian countries and modern Russian transition. The Asian crisis began in July 1997 when the Thai devaluation came to their impact throughout Southeast Asia, as the region plunged into a social setback never seen before. Stiglitz maintains that the main cause of the devaluation of financial liberalization was recommended by Washington in previous years.
    Keywords: Globalization, Stiglitz, IMF, Economic, Asian, Markets
    JEL: H0 H11 H44 I14 I18 O19 O53
    Date: 2014
  10. By: Verena Ebner; Christina Mumme; Wolfgang Lueghammer; Wilhelm Schachinger; Wolfgang Schwarzbauer; Brigitte Hochmuth; Sarah Lappöhn; Iain Paterson; Alina Pohl; Christian Reiner; Edith Skriner; Alexander Schnabl
    Abstract: Die vorliegende Studie zum Potenzial der BRICS-Staaten für die österreichische Außenwirtschaft diskutiert in einem ersten Schritt aktuelle makroökonomische Entwicklungen und strukturelle Aspekte der fünf BRICS-Staaten sowie die damit verbundenen Herausforderungen für die Zukunft. In einem zweiten Schritt wird die Außenhandelsverflechtung Österreichs mit diesen Ländern dargestellt und deren ökonomische Bedeutung für Österreichs Wirtschaft ermittelt. Strukturelle (mittels Constant-Market-Shares Analyse) und innovationsökonomische Merkmale der Exportaktivitäten werden in diesem Kontext diskutiert. Außerdem werden einzelne Sektoren anhand ihrer RCA Werte (Revealed Comparative Advantage) identifiziert, bei denen Österreich spezifische Branchenvorteile gegenüber den BRICS-Staaten aufweist. Auf Basis langfristiger Wirtschaftsprojektionen und der strukturellen Anpassungsdynamik Österreichs werden Exportentwicklungspfade abgeschätzt. In einem dritten Schritt wird die Sicht bereits aktiver sowie potenziell aktiver Akteure auf den Märkten der BRICS-Staaten betrachtet. Dazu wurden rund 400 Unternehmen mittels standardisiertem Fragebogen zu motivationalen Faktoren für ein Engagement in diesen Ländern, zu den Herausforderungen und Risiken in diesen Märkten sowie den Erfolgsfaktoren befragt. Interviews mit ExpertInnen aus Politik und Wirtschaft dienten darüber hinaus der Vertiefung der Analyseergebnisse. Auf Basis einer Synthese der Erkenntnisse dieser Untersuchungen werden abschließend Handlungsempfehlungen für die österreichische Wirtschafts- und Außenwirtschaftspolitik abgeleitet.
    Keywords: Internationalisation, Export, Austrian Trade Potential, BRICS, Company Survey, Trade Relations, Value-added effects of Trade
    JEL: F14 F15 O52 O53 O54 O55
    Date: 2014–07
  11. By: Alberto Behar; Jaime Espinosa-Bowen
    Abstract: This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with respect to trading partner GDP indicate non-oil export volumes are relatively responsive while service exports are less responsive. Downward revisions to global GDP growth for 2011–14 have impeded export performance, and the possibility of disappointing GDP growth in Europe and emerging markets presents further downside risks for exports. The Maghreb countries are particularly sensitive to developments in Europe, while CCA countries are more susceptible to growth in the BRICS.
    Keywords: External shocks;Middle East and Central Asia;Spillovers;Exports;Economic models;Gravity model, exports, spillovers, trade, Middle East, North Africa, Caucasus, Central Asia
    Date: 2014–05–09
  12. By: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
    Keywords: Ex post assessments;Fiscal policy;Energy sector;Banking sector;Monetary policy;Bank restructuring;Economic indicators;Stand-by arrangements;Ukraine;
    Date: 2014–06–11

This nep-cis issue is ©2014 by Alexander Harin. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.