nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2014‒05‒04
twelve papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. FDI and Long-term Economic Growth in Russia By TAGANOV, BORIS
  2. History and practice of awarding academic degrees and titles in Russia in the 1990s and 2000s By Kira Ilina
  3. Editorial for the Special Issue on 'Computational Methods for Russian Economic and Financial Modelling' By Fantazzini, Dean
  4. Out-Of-Pocket Payments In The Post-Semashko Health Care System By Sergey Shishkin; Elena Potapchik; Elena Selezneva
  5. Instructions For Staff Officers Of The Special Corps Of Gendarmes In Russia (1826 – 1836) By Alsu Biktasheva
  6. Credit Risk Modeling Of Residential Mortgage Lending In Russia By Agatha M. Poroshina
  7. The Concept Of “Ugolovnoe Prestuplenie” (Criminal Offences) In The Penal Drafts Of Catherine II By Galina Babkova
  8. The Soviet Union Outgoing Tourism In 1955-1985: Volume, Geography, Organizational Forms By Igor Orlov
  9. The History Of Sociological Research On Occupations And Professions In The Ussr 1960-80s: Ideological Frameworks And Analytical Resources By Roman N. Abramov
  10. From Saddles to Harrows: Agricultural Technology Adoption during the Russian Colonization in Kazakhstan By Elena Shubina; Sabine Henry
  11. Cointegrated Periodically Collapsing Bubbles in the Exchange Rate of 'BRICS' Countries By Wilfredo L. Maldonado; Octávio A. F. Tourinho; Jorge A. B. M. de Abreu
  12. Институты и экономический рост: результаты эмпирического анализа By Salahodjaev, Raufhon

    Abstract: In this paper we consider relationship between foreign direct investment (as one of the mechanisms of technological development) and long-term economic growth. In the beginning we discuss the role of FDI in the increase of total factor productivity from the viewpoint of endogenous growth theory. We then turn to the comparative analysis of FDI inflow to Russia and other countries broken down by economic industries. We find that Russian industries capable of increasing TFP and positively impacting the long-term economic growth are significantly underinvested relative to other countries. Since, in our opinion, pre-existing sources of Russia’s economic growth are almost completely exhausted, we suggest several economic policy measures aimed at attracting FDI in Russia and improve the absorptive capacity of the country.
    Keywords: FDI, TFP, economic growth, human capital, economic policy
    JEL: E66 F21 O15 O43
    Date: 2014–04
  2. By: Kira Ilina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This article reconstructs the activity of 'Alexander Yakushev school', a scholarly movement whose representatives over the last 20 years have studied the history of awarding academic degrees in the Russian Empire, the USSR and the Russian Federation. The causes of this school's emergence, its prospective research areas are analyzed, and its achievements are evaluated. Besides, the article assesses the reform plan for the thesis review procedure which Yakushev suggested after the Higher Attestation Commission (VAK) refused to confirm the higher doctorate in law he was awarded.
    Keywords: Russia, universities, academic degrees, scholarly certification, thesis, review, legislation, historiography
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2014
  3. By: Fantazzini, Dean
    Abstract: This double-issue contains 11 papers invited for the first special issue on “Computational methods for Russian economic and financial modelling”. It was an attempt to explore and bring together practical, state-of-the-art applications of computational techniques with a particular focus on Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The response was beyond expectations and managed to cover a wide range of issues, so that a double-issue was considered: the first dealing with Finance and the second with Economics.
    Keywords: Forecasting; oil price; Google; Russian stock market; T-distribution with vector degrees of freedom; portfolio management; Fund manager; Russian banking sector; Credit Risk; DSGE; Russia; Immigrants; Intertemporal general equilibrium model; Intertemporal equilibrium; Inflation; Inflation expectations;
    JEL: C02 C11 C22 C32 C61 C68 E5 G1 G2 J0 J1
    Date: 2014
  4. By: Sergey Shishkin (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Elena Potapchik (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Elena Selezneva (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper presents the analysis results of existing practices of out-of-pocket payments in the Russian post-Semashko health care system. It was carried out based on the data reflected in the ‘Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey’ from 1991-2012 and data of the ‘Georating’ survey carried out in all regions of the Russian Federation in 2010. The trends of legal and informal out-of-pocket payments for inpatient and outpatient care are revealed, and the social and economic factors which make patients pay a fee for medical services for fee are identified. The changes in out-of-pocket health expenditures in 2005-2010 are analyzed, and the assessment of total (public and private) health expenditures on different types of health care is made
    Keywords: Semashko health care system, health care, out-of-pocket payments, private payment, informal payment
    JEL: I10 I11
    Date: 2014
  5. By: Alsu Biktasheva (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper reconstructs the rationale and principles governing the work of the Special Corps of Gendarmes in the Russian Empire during the first decade of the reign of Nicholas I. An analysis of instructions given to police officers and of their feedback reveals an intention to create an efficient watchdog — an institution that would keep an eye on the population as well as control local administrative bodies. The article demonstrates the ways in which the police produced knowledge about the empire. This knowledge, along with the findings of institutional science, was to serve as a basis for a new concept of power and rational governance.
    Keywords: Russian empire, political police, provincial gendarme officers, instruction.
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2014
  6. By: Agatha M. Poroshina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the problems of credit risk modeling of residential mortgage lending in Russia. Using unique mortgage loan and macro data from a regional branch of the Agency of Home Mortgage Lending (2008-2012), we find that borrower and mortgage loan characteristics affect the loan performance and play an important role in predicting default as well as a macroeconomic situation. On the residential mortgage market, borrowers with undeclared income have the lowest probability of default, mainly explained by the difference in declared and real income. Obtained results are robust under parametric and semiparametric specifications with correction for selectivity bias.
    Keywords: credit risk, default, mortgage lending, sample selection, Russia
    JEL: C14 D12 R20
    Date: 2014
  7. By: Galina Babkova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This article analyzes the history of the concept “ugolovnoe prestuplenie” (criminal offences) in the penal drafts of Catherine II as an integral part of the penal policy that transformed and modernized the Russian legal system. Based on published and unpublished legal sources, materials of the legislative commissions, and acts of civil and military legislation, the paper focuses on the new language of the law. New legal terms and concepts defined an individual as a legal entity and marked a shift in the relations between subjects and the state which in securing the personal safety and property rights of every citizen led toward the political liberty of a modern state
    Keywords: Catherine II, criminal law, criminal offences, W. Blackstone, Russia.
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2014
  8. By: Igor Orlov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: In this paper, the institutional component, the volume and geography, and the specific forms of Soviet outgoing (foreign) tourism from 1955 – 1985 is reconstructed using documents from four central state archives on the basis of Soviet, post-Soviet and foreign historiography. A neoinstitutional approach allows the author to show the dependence of the above mentioned parameters from the essential principles which were the basis for the activities of tourism institutions being responsible for organizing foreign tours for the Soviet citizens and the ideological control.
    Keywords: Soviet Union, Russia, outgoing tourism, institutionalization, geography, ideological control
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2014
  9. By: Roman N. Abramov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The article analyzes of the content and context of research on occupations and professions in Soviet sociology from 1960 to the 1980s. It describes the key topics of observations of professional groups, gives definitions of occupations and professions in Soviet social sciences, and analyzes ideological and censorship restrictions for research and publishing. Sociology of occupations and professions as a separate disciplinary field appeared in Russia only in the late 1990s. Before this time, these topics were integrated into social structure and social stratification observations, research of the working class, intelligentsia, industrial sociology and sociology of organizations. From the 1960s Soviet sociologists searched for new explanatory models and they decided that socio-professional groups were the best criterion for a Soviet social structure description. During 1970-80s researchers of Soviet social structures debated about the place of professional groups. This article analyzes these and other features of sociology of occupations and professions in the USSR. The analysis is based on the bibliographical observations and interviews with Soviet sociologists. This project was supported by Science Foundation of NRU HSE.
    Keywords: professions, history of sociology, occupations, soviet sociology, USSR
    JEL: B24
    Date: 2014
  10. By: Elena Shubina (Department of Geography, University of NamurAuthor-Name: Gani Aldashev; Department of Economics and CRED, University of Namur); Sabine Henry (Department of Geography, University of Namur)
    Abstract: Technology adoption in agriculture is one of the key factors of change in rural areas of developing countries. Large-scale in-migration by groups using a more advanced production technology often triggers such change in autochthone populations. We analyse the determinants of adoption of new agricultural technology by nomadic pastoralists using unique micro-level data from a historical episode of massive Russian peasant in-migration into Kazakhstan at the turn of the 20th century. We find that distance to Russian settlers is a key determinant of technology adoption, even after controlling for socio-economic and environmental characteristics. This effect is stronger for wealthier and less mobile Kazakh families with pasture land more suitable for agriculture. The adoption of new technology follows a heterogeneous pattern within the autochthone population, with important implications for the evolution of inequality.
    Keywords: technology adoption, nomadic pastoralism, migration, Kazakhstan
    JEL: N5 O33 O13 Q15
    Date: 2014–03
  11. By: Wilfredo L. Maldonado; Octávio A. F. Tourinho; Jorge A. B. M. de Abreu
    Abstract: This paper tests the occurrence of rational bubbles in the exchange rate of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (the 'BRICS' countries group) against the US dollar. We consider bubbles of the periodically recurring variety, and assume that the fundamental value follows a modified PPP relation which takes into account interest rate differentials, starting from a reference value which is endogenously determined. At each point in time the probability of collapse of the bubble to is a nonlinear logistic function of the absolute size of the bubble and is, therefore, also endogenous. The expected next period bubble size if the future regime is collapse is a linear function of the current bubble size whose parameters are also endogenously estimated. The estimation uses a maximum likelihood procedure, and the results support the model, which passes the specification tests. The hypothesis of rational expectations in the market for the forward exchange rate, which is used as a proxy of the expected exchange rate, is also tested and accepted for 3 of the 5 countries. The hypothesis of two linear regimes (rather than the non-linear regimes we use) is also tested and rejected for 3 of the 5 countries. We discuss the dynamics of the absolute bubble, and also compare the time series of the bubbles for the several countries, relative to the corresponding fundamental value. We test for unit roots in the relative bubbles and find that they are integrated, and that they pass Johansen's the cointegration test. Finally we estimate an error correction model to discuss the long term relation between the relative bubbles and the speed of adjustment of each country's relative bubble to shocks to the long term relation between them.
    Keywords: Exchange rate bubbles, Cointegration test, Error correction models, BRICS
    JEL: C30 F31
    Date: 2014–04
  12. By: Salahodjaev, Raufhon
    Abstract: В статье рассматривается взаимосвязь между качеством институтов и экономическим ростом в 2000е годы. Результаты, полученные с использованием традиционной модели экономического роста позволяют сделать вывод, что в странах с высоким уровнем качества госинститутов темпы экономического роста ниже. Предложен нелинейный метод количественной оценки воздействия институтов на экономический рост, который свидетельствует о том, что на ранних этапах развития институты имеют “взрывной” эффект повышая макроэкономическую конкурентоспособность государства. This article investigates the link between institutions and economic growth during 2000-2012. Replicating traditional cross country growth models we find that institutions have negative impact on growth. Using non-linear regression techniques we show that countries with underdeveloped institutions can boost economic growth and reduce macroeconomic volatility.
    Keywords: институты, рост, волатильность, эконометрика, Барро
    JEL: O1 O11
    Date: 2014–01–01

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