nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2014‒03‒08
seven papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Does current demographic policy in Russia impact on fertility of different educational groups? By Irina Kalabikhina; Alla Tyndik
  2. Impact of minimum wage on income distribution and poverty in Russia By Kapelyuk Sergey
  3. Four facets of critical news literacy in a non-democratic regime: how young Russians navigate their news By Florian Toepfl
  4. South Caucasus–People's Republic of China Bilateral Free Trade Agreements: Why It Matters By Hovhanesian, Hasmik; Manasyan, Heghine
  5. Finding informed traders in futures and their inderlying assets in intraday trading By Lyudmila A. Glik; Oleg L. Kritski
  6. Short Run Effects of Bleaker Prospects for Oligopolistic Producers of a Non-Renewable Resource By Kristine Grimsrud; Knut Einar Rosendahl; Halvor Briseid Storrøsten; Marina Tsygankova
  7. The causal linkages between sovereign CDS prices for the BRICS and major European economies By Stolbov, Mikhail

  1. By: Irina Kalabikhina (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Alla Tyndik (Institute for Social Analysis and Prediction RANEPA)
    Abstract: This article is devoted to investigation current demographic policy in Russia impact on fertility of different educational groups. Authors use qualitative and quantitative data. Quantitative data for this analysis come from the Gender and Generation Survey in Russia (2004, 2007, 2011 waves). Semi-structured interview method (Moscow, 2010) was used to assess the cognitive and emotional aspects of fertility behaviour (to give birth the next child). One of the important results of this study that Russian population could not be satisfated with current demographic policy. Moreover, higher educated people have stronger demand for family-work measures to reach desired family size. People with higher education estimate influence of existing measures lower as a whole, but influence of potential measures (directed on combination of career and parenthood) the estimated higher.
    Keywords: Demographic policy, fertility, educational groups, Russia
    JEL: J13 J16 J18
    Date: 2014–02
  2. By: Kapelyuk Sergey
    Abstract: To the best of our knowledge, the influence of the minimum wage on poverty in Russia has never before been investigated. Russian data provide a unique opportunity for studying the poverty effects related to the minimum wage due to the significant increases of the minimum wage in recent years, almost complete coverage, and a high representation of full-time workers in poor households. This paper examines the effect of the minimum wage in Russia on the incidence of poverty and transitions into and out of poverty using data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey of Higher School of Economics (RLMS-HSE) for the years 2006 to 2011. The results indicate slight poverty-reducing effects of the minimum wage in Russia.
    JEL: J31 J38
    Date: 2014–02–26
  3. By: Florian Toepfl
    Abstract: Fueled by the Arab spring, the question of how the rise of internet-mediated communication affects authoritarian regimes has received unprecedented attention within the discipline of communications. However, in this debate, scholars have not yet turned to the concept of literacy and addressed the role of citizens’ knowledge about political media in any greater depth. This is surprising since the concept of literacy as ‘emancipatory knowledge’ has a ‘long and proud history’ (Livingstone, 2008: 60) of being linked with processes of enlightenment, political empowerment, and democratization. The present study contributes to filling this gap by suggesting four highly consequential facets of critical news literacy in contemporary Russia, a high-profile hybrid regime. Conceptual development is grounded in western literature and 20 in-depth interviews with young, urban, and educated Russians.
    Keywords: audience reception; global media and social change; literacy; non-democratic regimes; political communication; Russia
    JEL: L91 L96
    Date: 2014–02
  4. By: Hovhanesian, Hasmik (Yerevan State University); Manasyan, Heghine (CRRC-Armenia)
    Abstract: Regional integration could be turned into a basic factor for economic growth if combined with a strong economic-development-oriented governmental strategy. The effects of regional integration can be maximized for countries stressing open trade as opposed to creating trade-diverting conditions, which requires drafting different kinds of agreements, particularly free trade agreements (FTAs). The impact of regional integration is significant, especially for small open economies—such as Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, which together comprise the South Caucasus—entering into an FTA with a large economy like the People’s Republic of China (PRC). At the same time, FTAs have mutual economic and geopolitical benefits for all participant countries. Moreover, taking into consideration the interests of countries like Turkey, Iran, and the Russian Federation in the economic and geopolitical potential of this region, the PRC may have to re-think its role in the South Caucasus. This paper assesses the PRC’s FTA strategy, the potential for regional integration in the South Caucasus, and the likely impacts of an FTA on the economies of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and the PRC by using several specific trade indicators and a partial equilibrium modeling approach (SMART Model).
    Keywords: Free trade agreements; regionalization; South Caucasian countries; PRC; SMART model analysis
    JEL: F13 F15 F17 F43 F53
    Date: 2014–01–01
  5. By: Lyudmila A. Glik; Oleg L. Kritski
    Abstract: We propose a mathematical procedure for finding informed traders in ultra-high frequency trading. We wrote it as Vector ARMA and found condition of its stationarity. For the price exposure complied with ARMA(1,2) we proved that underlying asset price difference can be derived as ARMA(1,1) process. For validation of the model, we test an influence of informed traders in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/RUB pairs and futures, in gold and futures prices, in Russian Trade System share index (RTS) and futures trading. We found some evidence of such influence in gold and currency pair USD/RUB pricing, in RTS index in the period from Dec 16 till Dec 20, 2013 and from Jan 28 till Jan 30.
    Date: 2014–02
  6. By: Kristine Grimsrud; Knut Einar Rosendahl; Halvor Briseid Storrøsten; Marina Tsygankova
    Abstract: In a non-renewable resource market with imperfect competition, both the resource rent and current prices influence a large resource owner’s optimal supply. New information regarding future market conditions that affect the resource rent will consequently impact current supply. Bleaker demand prospects tend to accelerate resource extraction. A more pessimistic outlook for future demand may, however, slow down the early resource extraction of producers with sufficiently large resource stocks and thus more limited resource rent, because the supply from these producers is driven more by current market considerations than by changes in the resource rent. As producers with relatively smaller resource stocks accelerate their supply in response to bleaker demand prospects, producers with sufficiently large resource stocks will reduce their current supply. A numerical model of the European gas market illustrates that the effect of the shale gas revolution is an accelerated supply by most gas producers, but a reduced supply by Russia who loses market shares even before the additional gas enters the market.
    Keywords: resource extraction, Cournot competition, European gas market
    JEL: Q31 Q33 Q42
    Date: 2014
  7. By: Stolbov, Mikhail
    Abstract: The article examines causal relationships between sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) prices for the BRICS and most important EU economies (Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Spain) during the European debt crisis. The cross-correlation function (CCF) approach used in the research distinguishes between causality-in-mean and causality-in-variance. In both causality dimensions, the BRICS CDS prices tend to Granger cause those of the EU counterparts with the exception of Germany. Italy and Spain exhibit the highest dependence on the BRICS, whereas only India has a negative balance of outgoing and incoming causal linkages among the BRICS. Thus, the paper underscores the signs of decoupling effects in the sovereign CDS market and also supports the view that the European debt crisis has so far had a limited non-EU impact in this market. --
    Keywords: sovereign credit default swaps (CDS),causality-in-mean,causality-in-variance,European debt crisis,BRICS,decoupling
    JEL: C50 G10 G15
    Date: 2014

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